Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma 7-2 / 6-2 vs Iowa State 8-2 / 8-1 @ AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX

The B-12 Championship Game is a rematch, earlier this season, ISU took down the powerful Sooners, @ home, 37-30! Statistically, the game was amazingly even (both teams were penalized 9 times, ISU for 93 to OU 90, Turnovers were even at 1 apiece, & Total Yards were 417 for ISU to OU’s 414. The significant statistical difference was on 3rd down, where the Cyclones converted 6 of 10 while holding OU to 4 /13!

SCFP’s Game Simulator calls the game a statistical tie, 4 to 4 in the 8 categories assessed. The Game Simulator likes ISU in Rushing Yards, 145 to 131; to win the Turnover battle, 1.27 to 1.31, and to outperform OU in both Red Zone areas. RZ scores (TD’s & FG’s) & RZ (TD’s only), ISU is more likely to score in the RZ vs OU’s D, 86% to 85% and more likely to score TD’s at 67% to OU 61%! Oklahoma has the advantage in Total Yards, 411 to 382; Passing Yards, 281 to 238; Scoring, 32 to 28, & 3rd down Conversions favor OU 40% to ISU 36%.

The teams have played 11 times since 2009, with OU winning 9 of the 11 games. That said, the teams have split the last four; with OU winning in 2019, 42-41 and in 2018, 37-27, with ISU winning the book ends, in 2017 the Cyclones won, 38-31 and winning this year’s game (2020), 37-30, in Ames

The teams are 1-1 on the road & @ home in the last 4 games, with OU winning in Ames in 2018 and Iowa State beating the Sooners in 2017 in Norman!

The QB are an interesting mix of raw talent, Spencer Rattler (2,512, 24 TD’s to 7 INT’s & 279.11 YPG and experienced skill, Brock Purdy (2,272, 17 TD’s to 6 INT’s & 227.2 YPG!

ISU is averaging 199.9 Rushing Yards Per Game to OU, 158.0 YPG! That said: Somewhat shockingly, OU has the 4th best rushing Defense in the country, allowing 2.99 YPR and 88.1 Yards Per Game, while ISU is 10th in the nation defending the run, allowing 3.09 YPR & 103.1 YPG!

The Vegas Hot$heets have OU established as a 6 point favorite!

In terms of common opponents, TCU: ISU beat the Horned Frogs, 37-34, OU won 33-14; Texas, OU won in 3 OT’s 53-45 while the Cyclones beat the Horns. 23-20, Oklahoma State, OU beat the Cowboys, 41-13 & ISU lost to OSU, 24-21! While there were other common opponents these 3 were the next best teams in the B-12.

Sully Says: OU wins & Covers

And as Always, Enjoy the Games!

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