Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Five Best P5 Games of Week Five

5. Oklahoma 1-1 @ ISU 1-1: TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: OU -9: Since the 2010 season these teams have played 10 times, OU is 9-1 vs the Cyclones in that time frame! ISU’s lone win came in 2017, 38-31, @ Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma! In fact, the last three games have been competitive, as mentioned, Iowa State won in 2017, 38-31, while OU won in 2018, 37-27 and again in 2019, 42-41!

The Cyclones were shocked in their opener, by Louisiana, 31-14 and struggled with TCU before prevailing, 37-34. The Sooners’ opener went as expected vs an FCS team from the Missouri Valley Football Conference, Missouri State, 48-0 rout, then the impossible happened, Kansas State down by 21 (35-14) rose up & scored 24 unanswered points taking down, OU in front of a stunned, however limited, Sooner crowd!

This game features 2 of the best QB’s in the B-12, OU’s Spencer Rattler & ISU’s Brock Purdy. Two questions to be answered in this game, 1) Can OU play D? 2) Is ISU a contender or a pretender?

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Sully’s CFP uses very strategic and complicated mathematical algorithms to determine which team comes out ahead in our college football matchup calculator. For each area of superiority, a team will be awarded 1 point. Team with the most points wins! 

Replace Wisconsin vs Iowa with OU & ISU and the site will compare these teams using the statistical data we have for them in 2020!

4. Texas Tech 1-1 @ Kansas State 1-1; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: KSU -3.5: These teams have faced off 10 times since 2009, they have only miss playing one another in 2010. The Wildcats have won 8 to the last 10 meetings with Tech, including four in a row.

K-State & TX Tech were, @ least arguably in the 2 most exciting games of week four. Kansas State shocked the college football world taking down perennial B-12 champion Oklahoma, 38-35. While the Red Raiders had Texas down, in the 4th quarter, by 15 points with less then 3 1/2 minutes to play! Last minute heroics by Texas’ all everything QB, Sam Ehlinger, saved the Horns’ from the fate suffered by OU. Texas won in OT, 63-56! Ehlinger passed for 2 TD’s, a 2-point conversion to force the extra period, and then he finished off the Raiders upset bid in Overtime!

Saturday’s game is critical for both teams. Tech coming off an emotional loss (63-57 in OT to Texas) and an embarrassing win in week one, beating an FCS team, Houston Baptist, 35-33. Second year Coach, Matty Wells’ team is searching for an identity, we will have a better idea of who they are come Saturday night. The same can be said for K-State. Who are they, Giant killers (KSU 38 OU 35) or a second tier team in the Sun Belt Conference (Louisiana 31 KSU 13)?

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Check out the Head to Head on SCFP’s Game Simulator!

3. Old Miss 0-1 @ Kentucky 0-1: TV: 3:00 / SECN; Favorite: UK -7: Ole Miss played well offensively against Florida, scoring 35 points against Danny Mullen’s Gators. That said, Lane Kiffin will need to revisit his defense or lack their of, giving up 51 point to Florida’s dynamic duo, QB Kyle Trask & WR, Kyle Pitts!

Meanwhile, the Kentucky Wildcats took on a highly regarded Auburn team & the Tiger’s sophomore QB, Bo Mix. The Kentucky D held the Tigers to 91 yards of rushing offense, while running for 145. UK’s QB, Terry Wilson passed for more yards than Mix, 239 to 233 and the Cat’s out gained the Tigers in total yards, 384 to 324. Further, UK committed fewer penalties than Auburn (4 for 40yards to the Tigers 7 for 55 yards) and were better on 3rd down ( UA was 4 /10 while UK was 12 of 19). So how did Kentucky lose this ballgame? Simple, Auburn did not turnover the ball, while forcing Kentucky into committing 3 TO’s!

Ole Miss & UK have hooked up 3 times since 2009, Ole Miss is 2-1, including winning their last meeting in 2017, 37-34, @ Lexington’s Kroger Field!

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See what the The Game simulator thinks. Click on the link and you will have to enter Kentucky & Ole Miss by using the drop boxes!

2. Texas A&M 1-0 @ Alabama 1-0: TV: 2:30 / CBS; Favorite: Bama -17: Alabama open the 2020 campaign by soundly beating Mizzou, 38-19, the Tide rolled to a 35-6 lead entering the 4th quarter. They then subbed freely in the 4th quarter, pulled QB, Mac Jones for 5 star recruit, Bryce Young, who had his struggles against a focused and determined Mizzou Defense.

The Tigers kept the pedal to the metal and as a result, the final score appears deceivingly close. First year Missouri Coach, Eli Drinkwitz team could only muster 69 yards rushing against an Alabama D led & inspired by the return of All American MLB, Dylan Moses.

Bama’s QB, Mac Jones looked really good, 18 of 24 for 249 yards, 2 TDs’ & Zero Picks, WRs’, Jalen Waddle (8 receptions for 134 yards, 16.8 YPR, & 2 TDs’) & DeVonta Jones (8 for 89 yards, & 11. 8 YPR) are lighting in a bottle, & RB, Najee Harris (17 carries for 98 yards, 5.8 YPC, & 3 TDs’) is a beast!

Meanwhile, Texas A&M struggled with Vandy and their feisty coach, Derek Mason, winning, 17-12! Vanderbilt won the turnover battle 2 to 3 and was better than A&M on 3rd down.

A&M’s QB, Kellen Mond, who has had a history of not playing well against better competition, better address this short comings or this week will be a disaster in Tuscaloosa.

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Since joining the SEC in 2012, the Aggies have beaten the Tide once, the 1st time they met as SEC opponents in 2012, 29-24! That said, Alabama has won the last 7 by an average of 22 points.

Here is what the game Simulator on Sully’s College Football Page has to say about this week’s game!

1.Auburn 1-0 @ Georgia 1-0: TV: 6:30 / ESPN; Favorite: UGA -7: This game is considered the “Deep South Oldest Rivalry” (UVA vs UNC are considered the South Oldest Rivalry). This is the 125th meeting, the teams 1st met on February 20, 1892, Auburn prevailed, 10-0, yet UGA leads a close series, 60-56-8 and has the longest winning streak of 9 straight (1923-1931).

The teams have met 12 times since 2009, in that time frame, the Dawgs are 9-3 vs the Tigers, and have won 3 in a row. Auburn has lost the last 6 times they have traveled to Athens and UGA has covered the spread all 6 times!

Last week neither team dominated their opponent, Auburn beat Kentucky, 29-13, while UGA handled Arkansas, 37-10. Georgia trailed at halftime 7-5, was 6 for 20 on 3rd down, & committed 12 penalties for 108 yards. Auburn was outgained and out played by Kentucky, the fact the UK could not hold on to the ball (3 Turnovers to Auburns 0) was what led to their demise.

In 2020, a 10 game SEC schedule is a “Murderer’s Row”, akin to the New York Yankee line-up in the 1920’s and losses will be more common with 4 crossover games instead of 2 divisional cross games! The winner of this game will have an advantage as both of these teams will likely win 7 or 8 games this year. A win here could act as a tie breaker that could get you into the SEC championship Game! A win here is big!

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The Game Simulator says:

Enjoy the Games!

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