Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Bowl History: The Cotton Bowl was first played in 1937 and has been played annually since its inaugural year! The Bowl was once one of the four major bowls (Sugar, Orange & Rose) during the BCS Era it devolved into second tier bowl which selects its teams after the then BCS Bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose & the BSC National Championship) teams have been placed!  It regained its former prominance when the CFP was established as one ot the New Years Day Six (Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta & Peach). Two of these six bowls, house the CFP Semi Finals every 3rd year! Between 1937 and 2009, the game was played at its namesake stadium in Dallas; in 2010, it moved to Cowboy Stadiumin nearby Arlington. Historically, the game hosted the champion of the Southwest Conference (SWC) against a team invited from elsewhere in the country, frequently a major independent or a runner-up from the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Following the dissolution of the SWC in 1996, the game hosted a runner-up from theBig Twelve Conference (B-12), from 1999 to 2014 against a team from SEC. The Cotton Bowl Classic now served as one of six bowls in the College Football Playoff (CFP) since the 2014 season; it hosted the national semifinal following the 2015 season and will do so again following the 2018 season. In 2016, it will host #8 Wisconsin (10-3) and #15 Western Michigan University (13-0). The Cotton Bowl payout is $7,250,000.00

Teams: Wisconsin 10-3 (B-10) vs Western Michigan 13-0 (MAC)

Bowl Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2, 2017, 12:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Wisconsin beat LSU, 16-14, (8-4 SEC). Iowa, 17-9 (8-4 B-10) & Nebraska, 23-17 OT (9-4 B-10); Western Michigan beat Northwestern 7-6 (B-10)

Worst Losses:  Western Michigan did not lose a game in 2016 regular season, UW’s loss to Penn State, 38-31, in B-10 Championship

Common Opponents: Northwestern: Badgers won 21-7, while the Broncos won 22-21

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Wisconsin -6.5

Offensive Team Data: Wisconsin ; Total Yards, 384  YPG; Passing Yards, 179 YPG ;  Rushing Yards, 205 YPG; Scoring Average,  29 PPG, Turnovers,  1.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Offensive Team Data: Western Michigan ; Total Yards,  497 YPG; Passing Yards, 260 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 237 YPG; Scoring Average  44 PPG, Turnovers,  0.54 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 54.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 94% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 77%

Defensive Team Data:Wisconsin ; Total Yards,  303 YPG; Passing Yards,  206 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  97 YPG; Scoring Average,  15 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 26.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 75% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 41%

Defensive Team Data: Western Michigan ; Total Yards,  353 YPG; Passing Yards,  202 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  151 YPG; Scoring Average, 19 PPG, Turnovers,  2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Western Michigan 400 to 368.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Western Michigan 233 to 190.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Wisconsin 178 to 167

Scoring Advantage: Western Michigan 29.5 to 24

Turnovers Advantage: Western Michigan 1.31 to 1.615

3rd Down Conversions Advantage:  Push  @ 40.5,

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Push @ 86%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Wisconsin 63.5 to 59

The Game Simulator Says: Western Michigan 4, Wisconsin 2, Push 2; Site thinks Western Michigan wins outright, 30-24

Individuals to Watch: WM QB Zack Terrell 32/3 TD to INT Ratio, 3376 Passing Yards, WR Corey Davis, 91 receptions, 1427 total yards, 15.7 YPC, & 10TD’s  UW: RB Corey Clement, 4.5 YPA, 1304 yards rushing for 2016 season, & 14 TD’s

Sully Says: Not so fast my friend Badgers win but do not cover, Take WM and the points!

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