Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

The Military Bowl is a post-season National Collegiate Athletic Association-sanctioned Division I college football bowl game that has been played annually each December in the Washington metropolitan area since 2008.

Teams:  North Carolina (ACC) 6-6 / Temple (AAC) 8-4

Bowl Location: Annapolis, MD / Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium 

Day, Date & Time: Friday, December, 27, 2019, 11:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Temple: beat Memphis (12-1) 30-28, UNC: beat South Carolina (4-8) 24-20!

Worst Loss(es): Temple: lost to UCF (9-3), 63-21; UNC: lost to V-Tech (7-5), 43-41 in 6 OT’s & Pitt, 34-26 in OT! 

Common Opponents: Georgia Tech, Temple won 24-2, while UNC beat Tech, 38-22

Vegas Hot$heets Favorite: Temple -6.0 (Opening Line)

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is, say Notre Dame is playing Wisconsin … we take ND’s total yards on offense, add it to the number the Badgers give up on defense, we get a total and then divide the total by 2 to get an average. We then invert the process, we now take Wisconsin’s total offense, add it to what the Irish give up on defense, get a 2nd total, and then divide that number by 2, to get the second average! The greater number (with the exception of Turnovers, lower # wins) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed: 1) Total Yards, 2) Rushing, 3) Passing, 4) Scoring, 5) 3rd Down (Conversions /Stops), 6) Turnovers, 7) Red Zone Scores (TD’s & FG), & 8) Red Zone TD’s (only TD’s)!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Temple | Owls North Carolina | Tar Heels
Offense VS Defense 392.5 417 +1
Passing Off VS Def 246.5 249 +1
Rushing Off VS Def 146.5 168 +1
Scoring Off VS Def 26 27.5 +1
Turnovers Off VS Def 1.5 1.25 +1
3rd Conv Off VS Def 37.5 +1 36.5
Red Zone Scores 79 +1 76.5
Red Zone TDs 57.5 +1 53.5
Totals 3 5

North Carolina WINS Trophy

Historic Football Matchups

1st Meeting between these teams!

This is an interesting match-up, both teams have raised the banners on college football national peeks. Temple’s take down of Orange Bowl bound, 12-1 Memphis (30-28), added to UNC’s nail-biting, near-miss loss to a 13-0 Clemson (21-20) and the Tar Heels failed 2 point conversion!

UNC has had one of the most exciting season’s in 2019 in all of the FBS; the return of Mack Brown, 2 OT battles, a season opening win over the Carolina neighbor, South Carolina, 24-20, from the Mighty SEC, a 34-31 loss to 13-1 Appalachian State, and losing a 38-31, battle with Virginia, the Coastal Division Champ. In other words, the Heels were a breath away from a 11-1 season, 5 games they lost that one more score could have won!

Counting the Bowl interim’s, Rod Carey is the 5th HC @ Temple in the last 4 years! Yet, the one content has been their ability to play defense. This year they held 8 of 12 opponents to 21 or fewer points! Two bad losses, UCF (63-21) & SMU (45-21), kept the Owls from being a top 15 scoring defense! The 2 best teams the owls played this year, Memphis 12-1, (30-28 win) & Cincinnati 10-3, (a 17-15 loss) clearly demonstrates their ability to step their game up!

Sully Says: Take the points, this will be a close game with the team getting the digits being the winner! (Temple -6)

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