Bowl History: The Arizona Bowl, officially the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl for sponsorship purposes, is a post-season college football bowl game certified by the NCAAthat began play in the 2015 season. The game, which is held at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, is played between bowl-eligible teams from the MWC and SBC. The inaugural game was held on December 29, 2015, between the Nevada and the Colorado State. It was to be played between teams from C-USA and the Mountain West, with the Sun Belt as a secondary tie-in. However, due to a lack of bowl-eligible Conference USA and Sun Belt teams to meet the tie-in, the game was ultimately played between Mountain West teams, marking the first time since 1979 that two teams from the same conference appeared in a non-championship bowl.
Teams: South Alabama 6-6 (SBC) Air Force 9-3 (MWC)
Bowl Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona
Day, Date & Time: Friday, December 30, 2016, 4:30 p.m. CST
Network: Campus Insiders
Best Win(s): South Alabama Mississippi State (5-7) 21-20; Air Force beat Boise State (10-2) 27-20
Worst Losses: South Alabama Louisisana Monroe(4-8), 42-35; Air Force Hawaii (6-7), 34-27 in OT
Common Opponents: None
Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Air Force -15
Offensive Team Data: South Alabama ; Total Yards, 383 YPG; Passing Yards, 236 YPG; Rushing Yards, 146 YPG; Scoring Average, 26 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 38%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 81% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%
Offensive Team Data: Air Force ; Total Yards, 452 YPG; Passing Yards, 129 YPG; Rushing Yards, 323 YPG; Scoring Average 34 PPG, Turnovers, 1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 51.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%
Defensive Team Data: South Alabama ; Total Yards, 396 YPG; Passing Yards, 179 YPG; Rushing Yards, 217 YPG; Scoring Average, 26 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 47%
Defensive Team Data: Air Force ; Total Yards, 370 YPG; Passing Yards, 252 YPG; Rushing Yards, 118 YPG; Scoring Average, 27 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 43%
Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, … get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed! That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:
Total Yards Advantage: Air Force 424 to 376.5
Passing Yards Advantage: South Alabama 244 to 154
Rushing Yard Advantage: Air Force 270 to 132
Scoring Advantage: Air Force 30 to 26.5
Turnovers Advantage: Air Force 1.5 to 1.705
3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Air Force 43.05 to 40.9
Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Air Force 81.5 to 76
Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Air Force 54 to 51.5
The Game Simulator Says: Air Force 7, South Alabama 1, GS thinks AF wins (30-27) but does not cover the 15
Individuals to Watch:
Sully Says: AF wins but does not cover!
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