Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Ohio State Takes on Mighty Alabama in the CFP Championship Game

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SCFP’s Game Simulator breaks down the game into 8 categories; 1) Total Yards, 2) Passing Yards, 3)Rushing Yards, 4) Scoring, 5) Turnovers, 6) 3rd Down Conversions, 7) Red Zone all Scores, & 8) Red Zone TD’s only. The way the Simulator works is it takes Bama’s average total yards per game (535 YPG) & adds it to Ohio State total yards allowed (370 YPG).

This gives you a total of 905 yards. It then divides by 2 and predicts that Bama total yardage vs the Bucks will be 452.5 or -82.5 yards less than their average YPG! The Simulator then reverses the process, it takes the Bucks total offense of 545 YPG and adds it to what the Tide defense surrenders per game, 353 yards and once again divides by 2. The simulator predicts that the Bucks will gain 449 yards against Alabama’s defense, or -96 yards under their average YPG!

Sully’s College Football Page’s (SCFP) Game Simulator predicts that Bama will outgain the Bucks; 452.5 yards to 449, and as a result, the game Simulator gives Alabama the point for total yardage in Monday’s Championship!

It repeats the above format for all 8 categories and the results are as follows!

Please remember, these numbers offered below are not what the teams averaged during the regular season, they are, rather, a projection by SCFP’s Game Simulator, pitting OSU O’s vs Bama’s D & Bama’s O vs Brutus’ D!

1. Total Yardage Alabama 452.5 to Ohio State’s 449; Bama 1-0
2. Passing Yards, the Simulator says Bama 315 to OSU’s 257.5; Bama 2-0
3. Rushing Yards, The Bucks run the ball for 191.5 to the Tide’s 137.5 ; Bama 2-1
4. Scoring O vs D, The head to head projects Bama 35 OSU 31; Bama 3-1
5. Turnovers, Lower number prevails Ohio 1.56 to Alabama’s 1.745; Bama 3-2
6. 3rd Down Conversions: Bama converts 47.2% to the Bucks 45.85%; Bama 4-2
7. Red Zone all Scores (TD & FG) Bama will score 87.5 % to OSU 75.5; Bama 5-2
8. RZ TD’s, Alabama will score a TD 71% in OSU RZ to OSU’s 57%, Bama 6-2

The above web address will take you to SCFP’s “Head to Head/ Game Simulator page (you may have to hi-light & right click). Once there, simply click on the drop box and select Alabama & Ohio State and you will be able to see the info provides here and much more!

As stated both teams will gain less than their total average yards per game, in both passing (Bama APY of 349 yards, vs the Bucks, will fall to 315 yards (-34 yards), while OSU’s mean will go from 272 passing yards per game to 257.5 (-14.5 yards) vs Alabama’ D) and rushing yards Bama average per game will fall to 137.5 rushing yards from 186 YPG (-48.5), while the Bucks, 273 run yards will dwindle to 191.5!

The Tide averages 48 points per game to Ohio State’s 43 PPG! The Bama D, SCFP Game Simulator predicts, will knock off 12 points of the OSU’s average, holding the Bucks to 31, while Brutus will cut the Tide’s output by 13 points 48 down to 35!

Ohio State has forced their opponents into 2.57 turnovers a game, while Bama has given the ball up less than 1 time per game (.92) and interesting stat, if the Bucks can pressure Mac Jones, given his lack of mobility, to hurry him or force him to extend and/or escape the pocket?

Alabama is absurd on 3rd down! The Tide converts on 3rd down 59.3% of their attempts. Given the fact, that Bama is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, if you can’t get them off the turf on 3rd down, the Bucks might as well stay on the bus! That said, if Alabama is absurd on 3rd down at 59.3, then OSU behavior on 3rd down can be described, as other worldly, converting at a 50.5% rate. This game is worth watching on 3rd down alone!

Alabama has scored (TD or FG) 92% of the time, when they have entered the RZ and scored TD’s on 77% of those penetrations. Ohio State has scored (FG or TD) 77% of the time they entered into the RZ and got ‘6’ on 64% when crossing into the RZ!

We will talk more tomorrow about Jimmy’s & Joe’s and coaches, X & O’s!
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