Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Outback Bowl

Bowl History: The bowl was established in 1986 as the Hall of Fame Bowl (1986-94) renamed in 1995 through 2013 to the Outback Bowl. The first game was played on December 23,1986, Boston College beat Georgia, 27-24. Last year’s game featured Tennessee & Northwestern, a game won by the Volunteers, 45-6! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the SEC & the Big Ten.  The Outback Bowl is played on New Year’s Day, unless January 1 falls on a Sunday, in which case it is moved to the following Monday. It is usually the first game to start on a date which is traditionally full of college bowl games, and has kicked off as early as 11 A.M. ESPN has had television rights to the game since 1993. Under an extension of those rights in 2010, ESPN now broadcasts the game on either ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, in conjunction with the Citrus Bowl and the Gator Bowl. The contract ran through 2014 season. Between 1988 and 1992, the bowl aired on NBC! The bowl payout is $7,200,000.00

Teams: Iowa 8-4 (B-10) vs Florida 7-5 (SEC)

Bowl Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tempa Florida

Day, Date & Time: Monday, January 2,2017, 12:00 p.m CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Iowa beat Nebraska, 40-10 (9-4 B-10); Florida beat LSU 16-10 (8-4 SEC)

Worst Losses: Iowa lost to North Dakota State 23-21, an FCS Team out of the Missouri Valley Football Conference; Florida lost to Arkansas, 31-10 (7-6 SEC)

Common Opponents: None!

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Florida -2

Offensive Team Data: Florida ; Total Yards,  350 YPG; Passing Yards,  220 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  130 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Offensive Team Data: Iowa ; Total Yards,  333 YPG; Passing Yards, 161 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 172 YPG; Scoring Average  27 PPG, Turnovers,  0.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 3.33%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: Florida ; Total Yards,  298 YPG; Passing Yards,  156 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  142 YPG; Scoring Average,  17 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 69% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 45%

Defensive Team Data: Iowa ; Total Yards,   353 YPG; Passing Yards,   200 YPG;  Rushing Yards,   153 YPG; Scoring Average,   18 PPG, Turnovers,   1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Florida 351.5 to 315.5

Passing Yards Advantage: Florida 210 to 158.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: Iowa 157 to 141.05

Scoring Advantage: Iowa 22 tp 20.5

Turnovers Advantage: Iowa 1.25 to 1.5

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Florida 38.3 to 34.3

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Iowa 80.5 to 71.5

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Iowa 58 to 50

The Game Simulator Says: Iowa 5, Florida 3, Site thinks it Iowa outright, 22-21, take Iowa and the 2 points!

Individuals to Watch: The QB’s for both teams our your focus, neither of the three has been very good this year! Who will have the better day? Iowa’s CJ Beathard or Florida’s Auston Appleby (A Purdue transfer) or Luke Del Rio (coming back after a shoulder injury)

Sully Says: Florida wins and covers the 2 points

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