Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Russell Athletic Bowl 2013 Louisiville vs Miami FL

Bowl History: First … let’s start with the many names this Bowl has been known by … a) Sunshine Classic (1990), b) Blockbluster Bowl (1990-93), c) Carquest Bowl (1994 -97), d) MicronPC Bowl (1998),  e) MicronPC.com Bowl (1999-2000),  f) Visit Florida Tangerine Bowl (2001)  g) Mazda Tangerine Bowl (2002-03) & h) Champs Sports Bowl (2004-11)! The present day …   Bowl/Game … was founded in 1990 and has been played annually since that time. The current … official …. name for the Bowl is …. Russell Athletic Bowl! The first game pitted Florida State against Penn State, a game won the by the Seminoles, 24-17, on December 28, 1990! The defending Champion from last year’s game is Va Tech, who beat Rutgers, 13-10, on December 28, 2012! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the AAC & ACC and the Bowl Payout is $2,325,000. 00 as of 2011!

Teams: Louisville Conference Affiliation: AAC; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record 7-1: ….  vs ….   Miami: Overall Record 9-3 Conference Slate 5-3 Divisional Record 4-2 (Coastal Division)!

Bowl Location: The Russell Athletic Bowl is played in Orlando, Florida! The hosting arena is Citrus Bowl (the Citrus Bowl has hosted the game from 2001 to present  …. Please Note ……  from 1990 to 2000 the bowl was played @ Joe Robbie Stadium /Pro Player Stadium …. which is located in Miami Gardens, Florida). The Citrus Bowl has a seating capacity of 64,438 & last year’s game (2012), played between Rutgers  & Va Tech …. the actual attendance was 48,128 about 10,299 fewer then attended the FSU/ ND game in 2011!

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, 12/28/2013 @ 5:45 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Miami: UNC, 27 to 23 & Georgia Tech, 45-30; Louisville: Houston, 20-13 & Cincinnati, 31-24 in OT

Worst Losses: Miami: Va Tech, 42-24 & Duke, 48-30; Louisiville: UCF, 38-35

Common Opponents: USF: Louisville won 34-3 while Miami won 49-21

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Louisville -4.5

Offensive Team Data: Louisville ; Total Yards,  453 YPG; Passing Yards,  303 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  150 YPG; Scoring Average,  35 PPG, Turnovers,  0.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 55.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 96% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: Miami ; Total Yards, 447 YPG; Passing Yards, 274 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 173 YPG; Scoring Average  36 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 69%

Defensive Team Data: Louisville; Total Yards,  258 YPG; Passing Yards,  172 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  87 YPG; Scoring Average,  12 PPG, Turnovers,  2.17  TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 28.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Defensive Team Data: Miami; Total Yards,  416 YPG; Passing Yards,  233  YPG;  Rushing Yards,  182 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  2.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Louisville’s total yards on offense, add it to what Miami gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Miami’s total offense, add it to what Louisville gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Louisville…. 428 to 352

Passing Yards: Advantage.Louisville… 259 to 218

Rushing Yards: Advantage,Louisville …. 169 to 135

Scoring: AdvantageLouisville…. 31 to 25

Turnovers: Advantage, Louisville1.5 to 1.885

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Louisville 47.1% to 33.3%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Louisville89% to 74%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Louisville… 60.5% to 59%

Individuals to Watch: Louisville: QB Teddy Bridgewater, 3523 passing yards, 28 TD’s & 4 INT’s; Miami: QB Stephen Morris, 2868 passing yards, 21 TD’s & 12 INT’s & WR Allen Hurns, 60 receptions, 1138 receiving yards, & 6 TD’s!

Sully’s CFP Says: Louisville wins and covers to 4.5 points

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