Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Sully’s Four Pack of Winners; Week 12!

Last week we went 3-1! We took ND -13 @ BC, Wisconsin -2.5 @ the Big House vs Michigan, & Miami FL +2.5 @ VT, The Canes won outright, while the Irish & the Badgers won and covered! USC won, but did not cover, our sole loss!

Sully’s College Football Page began last week @ 11-11-1 vs the Spread. Our 3-1 record leaves us @ 14-11-1 for 2020 and of course, we like to remind everyone, we began the season 0-3, with one game cancelled do to Covid-19! That translates to 14 wins in our last 23 picks!

Here are this weeks picks. Please note: SCFP picks are based on the opening lines of the Vegas Hot$heets. . So here we go!!

Indiana 4-0 @ Ohio State 3-0, TV: 11:00 / Fox; Favorite: OSU -19.5 The Bucks have beaten the Hoosiers 24 straight time (25 if you count the 2011 game, a 34-20 OSU win that was vacated). The Bucks lead the overall series, 75-12-5 and hammered IU last year, 51-10, @ Indiana’s Memorial Stadium. In three of the last five games, the Buckeyes did not cover the spread identified in bold (2015, Bucks won, 34-27 line -22; 2016, OSU 38 IU 17 spread OSU -28; 2017 Ohio won, 49-21, line Bucks -20, 2018, State won, 49-26, Line was Bucks -26; 2019, OSU won again, 51-10, Line was -17), In fact, OSU is 0-5 Against The Spread (ATS) in their last 5 @ home vs the Hoosiers! Sully says: A shocked, take IU and the 19.5 in the Shoe, the Bucks win but do not cover for the 6th straight time!

Wisconsin 2-0 @ Northwestern 4-0; TV: 2:30 / ABC; Favorite: Bucky -6.5. Last time the Badgers were in Evanston (2018) they were ranked 10th in the AP and trailed the ‘Cats at half, 14-10. NW then scored 17 unanswered points to carry the day, a 31-17 Northwestern victory! Wisconsin has been the favorite in every game they have played vs Wildcats since 1988. during that time, Bucky has a surprising low, 14 wins in those 25 games that they were favored vs Northwestern. This translates to NW winning straight-up (w/o points), 11 times in the 25 games played since that 1988 game. From 2009 forward, the teams have played 9 times with the Badgers holding a slight edge, 5 wins to 4 losses! The UW has won 3 of the last 4 games by victory margin that would have covered the 6.5 in each of those wins! Sully Says; this game is must see TV, take Bucky, Mertz, & Badger Defense and give the Cats the 6.5 @ home!

Oklahoma St 5-1/4-1 @ Oklahoma 5-2/4-2; TV: 6:30 / ABC; Favorite: OU -9.5. In the last five years vs OSU, OU is 5-0 straight up & 4-1 ATS. OSU current coach, Mike Gundy has coached in the Bedlam Game 15 times and has only managed to win twice. These facts all seem to point to going with OU in this game, but in the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend”! OU has lost to both Iowa State, 37-30 & Kansas State, 38-35, while the Cowboys, beat ISU, 24-21 & Kansas State, 20-18. OSU’s only loss this season, was to Texas, 41-34 in overtime, compared to OU win over Texas, 53-45, in 3 OTs’. Sully Says: 9.5 is to many points in this game, take OSU and the points, OU may very well win this game but they will not cover!

USC 2-0 @ Utah 0-0: TV: 9:30 / ESPN; Favorite: USC -2.5. We have picked USC to cover 11 & 13 point spreads the past 2 weeks and while they have won, they did not cover in either game! So why are we back involving the ‘Men of Troy’ for a third straight week? For the following reasons; the Trojans are giving the Utes 2.5 points, SC is unbeaten in 2020, and Utah has yet to play a game in 2020. USC has won 3 of the last 5 games these teams have played since 2015. Sully Says: take SC and give the Utes the 2.5 in their 1st game of 2020!

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