Auburn @ LSU: Auburn, the defending national champion, contrary to what is being said by the talking heads, are not dead yet, and in fact, still control their own fate in the SEC West. The Tigers are 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the SEC, with wins over (6-1) South Carolina, 16-13, and (4-3) Florida, 17-6, two of the better teams in the SEC East. No question but that those Auburn wins are a reflection of the relative strength differences between the SEC East and West. Further evidenced by Auburn’s sole conference loss @ (5-1) Arkansas, 38-14, a team believed by many to be the 3rd best team in the West behind Alabama & LSU. That aside, if the Tigers were to win out, since they play both LSU and Bama, that would, at a minimum, leave Auburn in a three way tie atop the SEC West. Ok … not likely, but possible people!
Auburn’s surprising season is on the line in Baton Rouge come Saturday and the challenge is the biggest they’ve faced this year. LSU is 7-0, they have scored 35 or more points in six of their seven wins and allowed 11 points or less in five of their seven wins. The Bengal Tigers closest game this year was 13 points, twice, a 40-27 win over Oregon and a 19-6 drubbing of Mississippi State. LSU is the #1 ranked team in this year’s first BCS poll that was released this past Sunday, and are the favorite of many to capture the National Championship this year.
These SEC West rivals have met in each of the past 5 years; in 06, Auburn won, 7-3, in 08, LSU held off Auburn 30-24, and in 09 LSU won again, 26-21. In the past two years the teams split, in 010, LSU won for the 3rd straight time, 31-10 and last year, Auburn and Cam Newton won a tight contest, 24-17, on the strength of a 4th quarter, 70 yard, TD scamper.
In Total defense, LSU is the 4th ranked team in the country, giving up 251.9 yards per game, while Auburn is rated as the 77th best defense in the nation, allowing 404.4 YPG. In Scoring Defense, The Bengal Tigers are surrendering a meager 11.7 points per game and currently are identified as the 7th best in the land. Auburn is being scored on to the tune of 25.9 PPG and ranked as the 61st best in keeping its opponents out of the scoring column. LSU has the 23rd most effective defense on 3rd down- 102 attempts, 33 conversions and a success rate of over 67% in getting stops. Meanwhile, Auburn has struggled mightily on 3rd down. They are the 103rd of the 120 FBS teams, their opponents have had 106 attempts and converted 51 of those attempts for a 48% success rate. Allowing a 3rd down conversion rate that is pushing the 50% mark is flirting with disaster and something that Auburn’s Defensive Coordinator, Ted Roof, has to fix by Saturday or they will lose & lose badly!
In reviewing Total Offense, neither of these teams are among the leaders nationally. LSU and Auburn are the 80th and 86th ranked team in the country. LSU is averaging 369.1 yards per game and Auburn is right behind at 360.9 YPG. In Scoring Offense, LSU is averaging 38.4 points per game, ranking them 20th, while Auburn is at 26.3 PPG and limping in to this contest as the 77th best in the land.
A couple of recent changes that we need to mention are Clint Moseley will make his first start at Quarterback for Auburn, replacing former starter Barrett Trotter, for Saturday’s game in Death Valley. Meanwhile, several media sources are reporting that LSU has suspended 3 players for the Auburn game; starting running back, Spencer Ware, a starting cornerback, Therold Simon, and Tyrann Mathieu, also a starting cornerback, whose outstanding play has resulted in his name being mentioned as a possible Heisman candidate. Apparently Coach Miles will address this breaking news tonight.
Given what we know right now and let’s say all these suspensions come to fruition ….. it will make little to no difference LSU 35 Auburn 10
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