Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl

Bowl History: First … This Holiday Bowl is not to be confused with the one played in Saint Petersburg, Florida (1957 to 1960) … the current Holiday Bowl is played in San Diego, California @ Qualcomm Stadium and is not connected to the former Bowl in any way, shape, or form! The present day …  Holiday Bowl … was founded in 1978 and has been played annually since its inception. There have been a host of sponsors: SeaWorld (1986-90), Thrifty Car Rental (1991-94), Plymouth (1995-97), Culligan (1998-2001), Pacific Life Insurance Company (2002-09) and finally …. Bridgepoint Education (2010 to present)! The current … official …. name for the Bowl is …. Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl! The first game pitted Navy against BYU, a game won the by the Midshipmen, 23-16, on December 22, 1978! The defending Champion from last year’s game is Texas, who beat UCLA, 21-10, on December 28, 2011! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the Big 12 & PAC 12 and the Bowl Payout is $2,350,000. 00!

Teams: Baylor: Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 7-5; Conference Record 4-5! ….  vs …. UCLA: Conference Affiliation: PAC 12; Overall Record 9-4; Conference Record 6-4 (including Conference Championship Game); Divisional Record 5-0 (South Division)

Bowl Location: The Bridgepoint Holiday Bowl is played in San Diego, California! The game itself is played @ Qualcomm Stadium, which has a seating capacity of 70, 561! That said, last year’s game’s (2011) actual attendance was 56,313 or 79.81% of capacity!

Day, Date, & Time:Thursday, 12/27/2012 @ 8:45 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Baylor: beat, the undefeated (10-0) & the # One Ranked Team in the country, Kansas State, 52-24, Oklahoma State, 41-34, Texas Tech, 52-45 in OT, & SMU 59-24; UCLA: beat Nebraska, (Big Ten’s Legends Champ), 36-30, Rice, 49-20, USC, 38-28, Arizona State, 45-43, & Arizona, 66-10. All 9 of these teams are playing in bowls!

Worst Losses: Baylor: lost to TCU, 49-21, Texas, 56-50, Oklahoma, 42-34, Iowa State, 35-21, & West Virginia, 70-63! (Baylor went 4-5 in the Big 12 … but 9 of the Big 12’s 10 teams are playing in Bowl games … only Kansas is home for the Holidays) UCLA: lost to Stanford twice, 35-17 ( Regular Season) & 27-24 (Championship Game ….. cost them the Rose Bowl), & California, 43-17…. a real bad loss given the season Cal had in 2012 (3 wins & Coach fired)!

Common Opponents: None … both Big’s (PAC & 12) play 9 game conference schedules and only 3 Non-conference Games … Most conferences play 8 in-house (conference games) and 4 Non-conference … so these teams are less likely to play a common opponent.

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened with Baylor -1 … has now flipped to UCLA @ -1 …. Dollar flow favored UCLA …. so the ‘Vegas Juice Boys’ ….  about-faced …. to protect their 10% ….  this adjustment has nothing  to do with football … just those dopes & their ‘Chump Change!!! ( Ok …. Alright … a few million dollars of ‘Chump Change’) This is clearly a pick ’em’ game! My advice … Stay away from this one…. You would be better off buying Ocean Front Property in Arizona…U know…. the San Andreas Big One & All!

Offensive Team Data: Baylor: Total Yards, 570 YPG; Passing Yards, 349 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 221 YPG; Scoring Average 44 PPG, Turnovers, 2.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.0%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Offensive Team Data:UCLA: Total Yards, 472 YPG; Passing Yards, 269 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 203 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.0%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Defensive Team Data: Baylor: Total Yards, 523 YPG; Passing Yards, 326 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 197 YPG; Scoring Average 38 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 55.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: UCLA: Total Yards, 410 YPG; Passing Yards, 255 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 155 YPG; Scoring Average 26 PPG, Turnovers, 2.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 66%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take UCLA’s total yards on offense, add it to what Baylor gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Baylor’s total offense, add it to what UCLA gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: UCLA 498 to 490

Passing Yards: Advantage: Baylor 303 to 298

Rushing Yards: Advantage: UCLA 200 to 188

Scoring: Advantage: UCLA 37 to 35 

Turnovers: Advantage:UCLA 1.84 to 2.12

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: UCLA 48.2% to 39.6%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: Baylor 86% to 84%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: UCLA 67% to 65%

Individuals to Watch: Baylor: QB Nick Florence is the nation’s leader in total offense, rushed for 637 yards and passed for 4,121 yards / 396 yards per game (averages out to 387.6 when you factor in rush losses of 106 yards). Florence passed for 31 TD’s to 13 INT’s and completed 61.2% of his attempted passes!  WR, Terrence Williams, led the entire country in receiving yards @ 1,764 total yards ….  for an average of 147.0 yards per game, and 18.6 yards per catch! Williams caught 12 passes for TD’s this season as well! UCLA will counter with an every down RB in the NFL …. Johnathan Franklin, …. the Bruins all time leading rusher @ 4,369 career yards. This year, Franklin has said hello & good bye to defense’s… as he has dashed & smashed for 1,700 yards … an average of 6.3 yards per carry while scoring 13 TDs! QB, Brent Hundley has completed 68% of his passes this season … while passing for 3,411 yards & 26 TD’s to 11 INT’s! His 26 TD’s are the second most in UCLA history … not done yet … he also rushed for 365 yards and scored 9 rushing TD’s! This kid can play!! Did I mention he is a red-shirt freshman … move over Johnny Football! Finally … on defense … UCLA’s Junior LB,  … Anthony Barr …. led the nation in sacks with 13.5 and while Sophomore Linsbacker ….  Eric Kendricks was fifth in the nation in tackles accounting for 137!

Sully Says: Jim Mora (UCLA) & Art Briles (Baylor) have both done great jobs this year at the respective universities! Mora took over a UCLA program … where the seniors thought it was “cool” to have a senior skip day … the last week of practice. Mora has restored a toughness that has been lacking @ UCLA for far too long! Briles lost a Heisman Trophy winner and several other key players from a team that beat both Oklahoma & Texas (think about Baylor beating Oklahoma, Texas, & wining the Heisman all in the same year) … so for an encore ,… what is Briles to do?  I got it …. beat the# 1 team in the country .. & not just beat .. Hammer them, 52-24!! As far as predicting a winner in this game … here are some facts A) UCLA is the most penalized team in the country (probably related to Mora’s telling them they are/were soft) 124 penalties for a whopping 1,222 penalty yards ! B) Baylor averages about 100 yards MORE per game than the Bruins , C) UCLA gives up over a 100 yards LESS than Baylor on Defense! D) Both teams turn the ball over roughly the same …  two times per game E) Baylor scores about 9 more points than UCLA (44 to 35) … but gives up about 12 more (38 to 26) per game!  F) In the Red Zone the teams are almost identical … Baylor scores 83% to UCLA 82% (all scores in the RZ TD & FG) …… both teams score TD’s 63% of the time that they enter the Red Zone! G) The Big 12 is probably a better Conference than the PAC 12 top to bottom … but the PAC 12’s top teams Oregon & Stanford are, at least, arguably better than the Big 12’s best! … Since Oregon & Kansas State play … we will get a partial answer to the accuracy of that thinking. H) Baylor rolls into this game having won 3 in a row, Kansas State 54-22, Texas Tech 52-45 in OT, & Oklahoma State 41-34 … while UCLA has lost two in a row to Stanford! Sully’s CFP Says …. The difference in this game will occur on 3rd down … Baylor cannot stop anyone on 3rd down … opponents are successful 55%  of the time when facing a 3rd down situation … Given that…. UCLA will/should be able to keep their offense … and Baylor’s defense …. on the field  … UCLA’s defense  is getting off the field 67.9% of the time when defending 3rd down …. as they allow a 32.1% 3rd down conversion rate! Based on that fact … Sully says …Take UCLA, give Baylor the point … and finally…. if you bet this game … you have two options … Pray or Drink!!