Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Bowl History: This bowl was certified by the NCAA Bowl Committee in 2002 and has been played every year since that time. The game has had many different descriptors; San Francisco Bowl (2202), Diamond Walnut San Francisco Bowl (2002-03), Emerald Bowl (2004-09), & Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (2010 to present). On November 20, 2012, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl & the San Francisco 49ers announced the event will be moved to the new Santa Clara Stadium in Silicon Valley in 2014! The first game in this bowl series was played on December 31, 2002, the contest pitted Va Tech against Air Force, a battle won by the Hokies, 20-13! Last year’s game featured the Fighting Illini taking on the Bruins of UCLA … Illinois prevailed, 20-14! The current conference tie -ins are the PAC 12, Navy, BYU …. Alternates are the ACC, MAC & WAC…. Payouts are PAC 12 $900,000.00 … all others $750.000.00!

Teams: Arizona State; Conference Affiliation: PAC 12; Overall Record 7-5, Conference Record 5-4, Divisional Record 3-2 (South Division of the PAC 12)! ….  vs …. Navy:   Conference Affiliation: Independent; Overall Record 8-4; Conference Record: 0-0!

Bowl Location: San Francisco, California @ AT&T Park, the seating capacity @ the facility is 40,148. Last year’s game which featured Illinois and UCLA, was attended by 29,878 or 79.34% of AT&T’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time; Saturday, 12/29/2012 @ 3:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN 2

Best Wins: ASU: beat Arizona, 41-34… (their only win against an FBS team that posted a winning record); Navy: beat arch rival Army, 17-13, Air Force, 28-21 in OT, & BCS/Big Ten opponent, Indiana, 31-30.

Worst Losses: ASU: @ Missouri, 24-20 Navy: @ Troy, 41-31 … neither one of these teams were bowl eligible in 2012 …. both finished the season @ 5-7!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: LVHS opened the game at ASU -14.5 and it has stayed on that number.

Offensive Team Data: Arizona State: Total Yards, 449 YPG; Passing Yards, 259 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 191 YPG; Scoring Average 36 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 59%

Offensive Team Data: Navy: Total Yards, 388 YPG; Passing Yards, 111 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 276 YPG; Scoring Average 24 PPG, Turnovers, 1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 44%

Defensive Team Data: Arizona State: Total Yards, 351 YPG; Passing Yards, 179 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 172 YPG; Scoring Average 24 PPG, Turnovers, 2.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Defensive Team Data: Navy: Total Yards, 389 YPG; Passing Yards, 211 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 178 YPG; Scoring Average 23 PPG, Turnovers, 1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 73% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 44%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take ASU’s total yards on offense, add it to what Navy gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Navy’s total offense, add it to what TCU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards: Advantage ASU 419 to 370

Passing Yards: Advantage ASU 235 to145

Rushing Yards: Advantage Navy 224 to185

Scoring: Advantage ASU 30 to 24

Turnovers: Advantage ASU 1.71 t0 1.96

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage ASU 43.9% to 38.3%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Navy 76% to 75%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Navy 53% to 52%

Individuals to Watch: ASU players to watch, PAC 12 Defensive Player of the Year, LB Will Sutton, who had 20 total tackles for loss & 10.5 sacks during 2012 season. QB, Taylor Kelly has passed for 2,772 yards,  25 TD’s,  9 INT’s while completing 66% of his passes! Navy success or failure will be by unit not Individual achievement. The Midshipmen ranker 6 in the nation rushing the ball, 276 yards per game. That said, Navy ranked 4th from last in passes attempted!

Sully Says: The big advantage Navy typically has is gone in this game …  preparation time! ASU has had a long time to get their D up to speed on the nuances of the triple option! How to handle the blocking schemes, the counter’s & misdirection’s, the double wing and its Pre-snap motion, and the occasional play-action pass! Navy’s Coach Ken Niumatalolo, has stated the Arizona State will be as talented as any team they have played this year … he better hope not … ND beat the Midshipmen, 50 to 10 in Ireland! Sully’s CFP Says… Given the time ASU has had to prepare and their athletic advantage … State will win & but not cover the 14.5!