Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Bowl History This Bowl was established in 1946 and has been played continuously since its inception. It is the sixth oldest and the first Bowl to ever be televised! The first game was played on January 1, 1946 between Wake Forest and South Carolina …. a game won by Wake, 26-14. Last year’s game saw Florida outlast Urban Meyer’s new team, Ohio State, 24-17! The current Bowl tie-ins are the SEC & Big Ten and the game’s payout is $7,000,000.00.

Teams: Northwestern: Conference Affiliation: Big 10; Overall Record 9-3, Conference Record 5-3, Divisional Record 3-2 (Big Ten’s Legends Division) vs Mississippi State: Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record: 5-3, Divisional Record 3-3 (SEC’s East Division)

Bowl Location: Jacksonville, Florida … played @ the Gator Bowl, the seating capacity @ the facility is 77,510. Last year’s game which featured Florida and Ohio State, was attended by 61,312 or 79.10% of the Gator Bowl’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Tuesday, 1/1/13 @ 11:00 a.m. CST

Network: ESPN 2

Best Wins: Northwestern: beat Syracuse 42-41, Vanderbilt, 23-13, Michigan State, 23-20, & Minnesota, 21-13; MSU: did not beat an FBS team that qualified for a bowl game in 2012!

Worst Losses: Northwestern: Michigan, 38-31 in OT & PSU, 38-29; MSU: Ole Miss 41-24

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ MSU -1 …. moved to Northwestern -2  …. and then back to MSU -1!

Offensive Team Data: Northwestern: Total Yards, 398 YPG; Passing Yards, 167 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 231 YPG; Scoring Average 32 PPG, Turnovers, 1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Offensive Team Data: Mississippi State: Total Yards, 388 YPG; Passing Yards, 248 YPG;  Rushing Yards,140 YPG; Scoring Average 30 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Defensive Team Data: Northwestern: Total Yards, 385 YPG; Passing Yards, 262 YPG; Rushing Yards, 124 YPG; Scoring Average 23 PPG, Turnovers,1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Defensive Team Data: Mississippi State Total Yards, 390 YPG; Passing Yards, 224 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 166 YPG; Scoring Average 22 PPG, Turnovers, 2.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 53%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take MSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what Northwestern gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Northwestern’s total offense, add it to what MSU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: Northwestern 397 to 387

Passing Yards: Advantage: MSU 255 to 196

Rushing Yards: Advantage: Northwestern 199 to 132

Scoring: Advantage: Northwestern 27 to 26.5

Turnovers: Advantage: MSU 1.5 to 1.88

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: Northwestern 43.05% to 39.45

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: Northwestern 84% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: MSU 59% TO 57%

Individuals to Watch: Northwestern: RB, Venric Mark, who has rushed 1310 yards, 11 TD’s, & a 6.2 average per carry; MSU: QB, Tyler Russell has passed for 2,791 yards, 22 TD’s, 6 INT’s & completed 59.8% of his attempts.

Sully Says: This is the one game the Big Ten is favored in against the Mighty SEC (well…. at least for a while … the $ flow has moved the line back to MSU -1)! This back and forth flow of who is favored has nothing to do with football … but rather with the bean counters getting their 10% of the wagered dollars!! Northwestern was favored, …. @ least in part, due to the fact (as mentioned) that MSU did not beat a team that qualified for a bowl game this season (2012). This surprised me ….  as they won their first 7 games of the 2012 season before dropping three in a row to Bama, Texas A&M, & LSU! Sully’s CFP Game Simulator likes Northwestern in 5 of the 8 categories assessed (see above). Finally, the Wildcats are trying to win their first bowl game … since winning the 1949 (that’s right … 1949) Rose Bowl!! Northwestern Coach, Pat Fitzgerald has guided his team to five straight bowl and has come up empty each time …. Sully’s CFP Says…. Take the Cats over the Dogs (MSU is/are the Bulldogs) and give NW the point!