Michigan State @ Nebraska

Michigan State has survived a very difficult month, October 1 they traveled to OSU ( Ohio State was 3-1 @ game time) and won a hard fought game, 10-7, they then welcomed Michigan, (Wolves were 6-0 at game time) the Spartans figuratively as well as literally “beat the Wolverines up”, 28-14. Then for the 2nd year in a row Sparty hosted Wisconsin (6-0 at game time) and the Mighty Badgers were sent away without a smile but were given a pray… a Hail Mary & 37-31 loss. Now Nebraska (6-1) awaits the Spartans arrival in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers have never lost to MSU, a perfect 5-0, with the last meeting taking place in 2003 @ the Alamo Bowl, a 17-3 Nebraska victory.

It has been difficult for me to exercise from my mind the Capital One Bowl, a 49-7 beat down the Spartans suffered at the hands of the Crimson Tide . When one sees MSU right next to Alabama in several defensive categories, Total Defense: Bama 1, State 2, 3rd Down Defense: Tide 2 & MSU 8, & Passing Defense: Michigan State 2 and Alabama 3… I just don’t believe that MSU’s talent is anywhere near the ability levels of Bama. But the Spartans keep winning and I do believe that Wisconsin could play and win in the SEC. Two teams in that league are better than the Badgers, LSU and Alabama, them aside, the Badgers would / could beat, including my personal favorite, Arkansas, the rest of the teams in that conference. So it is time for me to get past that one bowl game and take the Spartans behavior seriously … they’re good! Wait a minute, they lost to ND (4-3) though… That’s enough… they are good and were moving on with that thought!

Let’s look at these teams strength vs strength. The Cornhuskers are the 16th most effective team in the country once they arrive in the Red Zone (20 yard line to the goal line). They have entered the Red Zone 34 times this season and scored 31, in other words, they put points on the board 91% of the time. To counter this threat, MSU has allowed only 12 penetrations into the Red Zone they defend, which has resulted in 9 scores (7 TD 2 FG) so there is a 75% chance if you get into the Spartan Red Zone you will score and a 58% probability the score will be a TD. The question is, can Nebraska get into MSU’s RZ?

Nebraska is ranked as the 20th best scoring team in the nation. They are averaging 37.6 PPG, in the Big Ten, only Wisconsin (47.4) puts more points on the board. This plays right into another Spartan strength as they are the 7th best scoring defense in the country giving up 13.7 PPG. So the question is, once again, can Nebraska’s Offense move the ball into scoring position against the Michigan State Defense.

Now the fun part and where this game will be decided! MSU has the 8th best run defense in the land surrendering 88.9 YPG, while Nebraska has the 7th rated rush offense in the nation, 261 YPG with an average rush for 5.5 YPC. The Spartan defense has struggled in two games this year, the ND and Wisconsin games. In both of these contests they gave up 31 points… why? The answer is simple, the Irish and the Badgers are balanced offensively, both teams have good to very good runners (ND Jonas Gray & Cierre Wood and the Badgers Montte Ball & James White) and have excellent receivers (ND’s Michael Floyd & Tyler Eifert and the Badgers Nick Toon & Jared Abbrederis). Not so with Nebraska, they are ranked 103rd of the 120 FBS teams in Passing Offense: 171.7 YPG with a weak completion rate of 54.8.

No question the X factor here is Nebraska’s Memorial Stadium and 85,000 lunatics, if this game were at night… but it is not… an 11:00 a.m start. MSU 24 Nebraska 17