LSU @ Bama

Here we go… another “Game of the Decade”. This is a great game on paper, but I would prefer we let it play out before we canonized it as “The Game of the Century”… hey, for all we know… it may be the Game of the Millennium!

I’ve got an idea, let’s take a statistical look-see at these teams and see what the data tells us.

1) First everyone (including cousin Willie), is babbling about how LSU has played a better schedule. The two best teams LSU has played, record-wise, are Oregon 7-1 and West Virginia 6-2. The Tigers beat the Ducks (Go Figure… a Tiger against a DUCK) 40-27 and the Mountaineers 47-12, no question both wins were demonstrations of LSU’s ability to dominate on a football field. Meanwhile, Bama’s best opposition has come, in part, from the ranks of the Big Ten, an 8-1 Penn State and a SEC divisional foe, a 7-1 Arkansas. The Tide washed away the Nittany Lions 27-11 and hog tied the Razorbacks 38-14. I believe Penn State is quite capable of beating West Virginia; State plays great defense and their running back, Silas Redd (111.8 YPG), is having a great season! While Arkansas, with their tough-tailed QB Tyler Wilson, excellent receivers in Joey Adams, Jarius Wright, & Chris Gragg, and the emergence of running backs Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo, to replace all-conference Knile Davis, leave little doubt but that they can go score to score with Oregon while playing a tad better statistically on defense. So if you look at the total body of work, not just the non-conference schedule, there is little difference between the quality of opponent. Advantage: Push

2) In Total Offense: Alabama is @ 458 YPG to LSU 372 YPG, while in Total Defense: Bama is surrendering 181 YPG and LSU’s allowing 251 YPG. Advantage: Alabama

3) Offensive Passing Yards: LSU is at 180 YPG and The Tide is averaging 228, while in Passing Defense: The Tigers are allowing 175 yards per game and Tide 136. Advantage: Alabama

4) Rushing Offense: Alabama 229 to LSU’s 192 YPG and on the other side of the ball, Rushing Defense: Bama surrenders a mere 47 YPG to LSU’s 77 YPG. Advantage: Alabama

5) Scoring Offense: LSU 39 & Alabama 39 points per game; in Scoring Defense: LSU 12 and Bama 7. Advantage: Alabama

6) Offensive Turnovers: LSU is turning the ball over at an impressive .38 while Alabama is turning the ball over @ 1 per game. Defensive Turnovers: LSU is forcing almost 3 turnovers a game @ 2.75 to Bama’s forcing almost 2 @ 1.75. Advantage LSU

7) Third Down Conversions: LSU converts their 3rd down attempts 46% of the time while the Tide is successful to the tune of 51%. Third Down Stops: LSU stops their opponents 32% of the time on 3rd down, while Bama is more successful at stopping their opposition @ 26%! Advantage: Alabama

8) Red Zone Offense: When LSU has penetrated a team’s Red Zone (20 yard line to goalline) they have scored 97% (Touchdowns or Field Goals) of the time and 79% of the scores are touchdowns. While Alabama has scored 85% of the time when they have entered the red zone, 58% are touchdowns. In Red Zone Defense: LSU has allowed their opponents to score at a rate of 94% of which 56% are TDs. While Bama allows their opposition to score only 67% of the time when they penetrate into the Red Zone, 56% are TDs. Advantage: Push

So there you have it; Bama seems to have a clear statistical edge and should win the game hands down. So in the words of Dandy Don, “Turn out the lights, the party is over” or is this a Lee Corso moment; “not so fast my friend!”

Hank Koebler, an NFL & NCAA football writer, did a study of who wins NFL games and the statistic that most often indicates the winner. Koebler looked at data over a 10 year period and found that looking at turnovers, isolated from all other statistical data, whoever won the turnover battle won the game an astounding 70% of the time.

LSU’s defense is out performing Alabama in forcing turnovers, so it is quite possible that this stat is what the game will turn on! Also, a fact to consider among the many is play in the Red Zone, LSU scores 97% of the time when they enter “the zone” while Bama allows opponents to score just 67% of the time.

This game should be a lot of fun: Alabama 24 LSU 21