Big Ten Conference
West Division
1. Wisconsin: The Badgers return only 8 starters (3 on defense) from a year ago, are shaky at QB, and open the season @ Reliant Stadium in Houston TX against perennial SEC West power, LSU. So it begs the question, why rank them so high in the preseason with so many unknowns? First of all, their schedule in favorable, they play the team with the best roster in their division, Nebraska, in Madison, they avoid the 4 best teams in the East Division, OSU, MSU, Michigan, & PSU (Nebraska does not … they play @ MSU), and Wisconsin plays the two weakest teams in the Big Ten, Rutgers & Purdue on the road! On paper, it is always an advantage to play the better teams at home and the weaker teams out of town! If things go according to Hoyle, the Badger’s post-season landing site will come down to the Iowa game on November 22, in Iowa City. A win there and Wisconsin will be headed back to Indianapolis to battle OSU for the Big Ten Championship. That covered, the Badgers may have the best tandem of running backs in the country, Melvin Gordon & Corey Clement. The O-Line is solid once again, led by All-Big Ten, Rob Havenstein (6’8” 327) while the other four members of the Line started at least 5 games in 2013. That leads us to the unknowns, how will Stave play and which of the WR/TE will step up, the 3 receivers who caught the most passes in 2013 all departed? These questions need to be answered positively for the Badgers to get to Indiana in early December! The defense is making a fundamental paradigm shift under 2nd year coach Anderson, the Badgers are moving away from size and toward speed. The focus is to get big plays on D, turnovers, Sacks, & tackles for loss as opposed to controlling the LOS on the early downs to force 3rd and long. That said, the front 7 is brand new and most can run, yet some remnants of the old regime, big but slow, remain for 2014. The secondary returns 3 of 4 starters & should benefit from the new philosophy of generating heat in the offensive backfield!
2. Nebraska: Gone is that “funky’ throwing motion of Taylor Martinez, I, for one, will miss watching him “shot put” the ball down the field. It was baffling as to how a guy could be as great an athlete as Martinez was and not develop a more fluid throwing motion. This discrepancy (Martinez the athlete vs Martinez the passer) may have been the best example in all of college football of the difference between athletic talent and skill development. Enter Tommy Armstrong, oh no, Tommy looks a little like Taylor, great on the option as a runner, but not so much of a threat throwing the ball. Last year Armstrong threw 9 TDs to 8 INT, not the minimum 2 to 1, TD to INT, ratio coaches are looking for from their QB! He must improve his throwing skills if the Huskers are to challenge the Badgers for the top spot in the West! Ameer Abdullah rushed for 1690 on 281 attempts and scored 9 TDs (Note: Wisconsin’s Gordon rushed for 1609 on 206 attempts and scored 12 TDs). It will be interesting to compare these two guys each week as the head for their showdown in Madison on November 16th. At WR, Kenny Bell is in position to become Nebraska’s all time leading receiver, quiet a feat giving the “knuckle balls” that Martinez threw at him these past years. Former QB turned WR, Jamel Turner can score from anywhere on the field given his speed, he has been plagued by injury, so … if this guy gets healthy, well … the Defenses better know where he’s lined up! Jake Cotton will lead a rebuilt O-Line in 2014. The defense, led by All-America, DE Randy Gregory (6’6” 245) & All-Big Ten, Safety Corey Cooper (6’1” 215) will be the strength of this team. The Huskers road to the West Championship is trough Madison and to make matters more difficult, they will be detoured to East Lansing, to face the Spartans. The Badgers and Huskers are really close on paper, the Wisconsin / Nebraska game being played in Madison and Nebraska having to play @ MSU is why they are second and not first in Sully’s CFP preseason picks in the West!
3. Iowa: The Hawks are the most dangerous team in the west, last year’s win over Nebraska, 38-17 and their very good showing against LSU, a 21-14 loss, has this team believing and those who play them worried! Kirk Ferentz is the best teacher of offensive line play in the Big Ten and one of the best in the nation. Giving the talent the Hawks have at running back, Mark Weisman 975 rushing yards, Jordan Canzeri, 481 rushing yards, & Damon Bullock’s 467 yards. The skill level of these backs coupled with Ferentz’ knowledge of line play suggests that Iowa’s running game will be one of the best in the Big Ten! QB Jake Rudock passed for 2,383 yards, 19 TDs, & 13 INT. Rudock’s biggest flaw and one that needs addressing in 2014 is his tendency to predetermine targets & force the ball into coverage. The O-Line is led by Preseason All-American, LT Brandon Scherff. The strength of the defense is up front with DTs Carl Davis & Louis Trinca-Pasat. The Hawks also return DE Drew Ott, CB Desmond King, & SS John Lowdermilk! Like the Badgers, the Hawks avoid OSU, MSU, PSU, & Michigan in their divisional crossover games! Iowa’s season should come down to the final 2 weeks, at home vs Wisconsin and a date in Lincoln, on the Friday after Thanksgiving! If Iowa gets to that point in the season near or tied at the top of the West Division, all bets are off, as the Hawks, not the Badgers or Huskers, could rule in the West!
4. Minnesota: Jerry Kill is one of the best stories in all of college football and I am not referring to his heroic battles with epilepsy, but rather his rise through the coaching ranks as a head coach not as an assistant. Most of the the guys who land big time jobs have assisted at a major school along the way up, not Kill. He has worked his way up the ladder as the “guy in charge”, not an OC or DC. Kill began his Head Coaching Jobs @ Saginaw Valley State, where he went 38-14 from 1994 to 1998, he then accepted a position at Emporia State leading the Hornets to an 11-11 record in two seasons. In 2001 Southern Illinois offered Kill the head coaching job, he stayed @ Southern for the next 8 years, going 55-32, however, it should be noted; he was 50-14 the last six seasons at SIU. Next he was offered and accepted the Northern Illinois position in 2008, he compiled a record of 23-16 in three seasons. In 2011, Minnesota offed Kill an opportunity to coach in the Big Ten and he has improved the team’s record in each of the past three years, 3-9 in 2011, 6-7 in 2012, & 8-5 in 2013. Minnesota will be better in 2014 but so is the schedule, at TCU in a non conference tilt, the divisional crossover games are against OSU at home & @ Michigan, and the Gophers end their season against the two best teams in the West Division, Nebraska & Wisconsin … both on the road. In fact, the Gophers play Iowa, OSU, Nebraska, & Wisconsin in the last four weeks of their 2014 season. Kill’s team returns 14 starters from an 8-5 team a year ago and they will be a better football team… but their record may not be, based on this schedule!
5. Northwestern: This team started their season 4-0 and played well in their 5th game, at home, against OSU. NU actually had a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter, before falling short, 40-30. The final score is/was skewed, OSU was up 34-30 with seconds remaining and scored their final points with no time left on the clock, after picking up a fumbled lateral as the NU players were desperately trying to get the ball up the field! The Wildcats then lost the next 6 games before righting the ship against Illinois in the final week of the season, finishing at 5-7, after a 4-0 start! So what went wrong? Fair or not, one can not help but wonder what the impact was of all that talk & later vote about/to unionize college football players, had on the team’s focus. I know that Coach Fitzgerald says that the team remained “tuned in” to the work at hand, but given all the controversy and conversation about “pay for play”, “the devaluation of education”, “already paid with an academic scholarship”, “the NCAA does not care about the welfare of the players who are making all this money for them” and on & on & on! One has to think it was not only a distraction, but a major obstacle. The simple truth was that NU’s 2013 story was not about what was going wrong on the field, but rather how would they vote, to unionize or not! Northwestern returns 16 starters from last year’s team, clearly a good thing, yet it should be noted; their non-conference schedule is better. They play Cal again and they travel to South Bend to take on the Irish. The get both Wisconsin & Nebraska at home, and take on PSU in Happy Valley & Michigan in their divisional crossover games. If I were Fitzgerald, I would get the results of that vote (still not known how the players voted)) out for public consumption long before the August 30th kick-off against California. Northwestern needs to get this union talk in its rear view mirror and get back to winning some football games!
6. Illinois: The Illini return 14 starters from a team that went 4-8 last year and won only one game in the Big Ten. Tim Beckman has had his share of problems at Illinois, everything from a dismal 6-18 record since his arrival in Champaign, to being caught on national TV, during the Wisconsin game, putting a chew into his mouth, to raving about how his wife’s cooking will help his recruiting. What? While Coach Beckman has had an interesting two years, hopefully, for the Illini fan base, things will go a little better this year for their team’s on field results. The arrival of QB Wes Lunt from Oklahoma State is a great place to start. This guy won the starting QB job, at Oklahoma State, as a true freshman, has a cannon for an arm and an extremely quick release of the ball on his passes. His decision making in the spring was the thing that most impressed the coaches. Starting running back, Josh Ferguson, from Joliet Catholic Academy, led the team in rushing , 779 yards @ 5.5 YPC and was the second on the team in receptions. The receivers are all new, but look like they can play. Lunt can certainly get them the ball and with four of the five O-Linemen back, the run game and time to throw should be positive factors in helping the receivers learning curve. Last year, the defense was bad, real bad, so is returning 8 starters a good thing or not? OC, Tim Banks says it is “we will be better, period” Beckman needs to get to a bowl this year, the non conference sets the Illini up for three wins, but the divisional crossover schedule is bad, at OSU and home to PSU. That means they have to find three wins within the West Division, this will be difficult. The question is, how much does Wes Lunt change things in 2014 and beyond?
7. Purdue: Darrell Hazell made a change at the midpoint of the 2013 season by inserting Danny Etling into the QB position. Etling was ranked 175th best player in ESPN Top 300 high school prospects and Rivals ranked him as the 9th best pro style QB in the class of 2013. Hazell decided to turn things over to the true freshman and as a result, some positive things occurred. Etling passed for 485 yards against Indiana in a 56 to 36 loss and completed 20 passes in 29 attempts against Illinois. AT RB, Raheem Mostert, won the 60 & 200 meters at the Big Ten indoor track meet, this guy really can fly. Hazell has to figure out ways to get him the ball in space, as it is unlikely that he will or can be caught in the open field! TE Justin Sinz (Edgar, Wisconsin) is the leading receiver back from 2013 (41 receptions for an 8.3 YPC average) and WR DeAngelo Yancey has big play ability. The O-Line is an area of concern. The D-Line will be better in 2014, led by Ryan Russell, but questions about the back 7 are everywhere! The Boilers gave up 30 or more points in 9 of their 12 games a year ago, simply to much for their offense to overcome. To make a bowl game this year (6 wins) the Boilers will have to win at least 3 non-conference games and then find away against Northwestern and @ Illinois & Indiana. Hazell knew this would be a tough turnaround, yet he needs to make progress this year in the win total!
Up Next: The PAC 12 North Division
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