Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Camping World Independance Bowl

Bowl History: The Independence Bowl became one of the First Bowls to recognize the significance of using a sponsor’s name in the official bowl title, to generate more $’s in off-setting the economic costs of running a college football bowl game! Thus born, the Poulan Weed-Eater Independence Bowl in 1990 ( a side effect, however unintended, of using this particular sponsor was that the fans began referring to  second tier bowls as “Weedwhacker Bowls”) There have been a host of sponsors for the Independence Bowl: Weedeater (1990-96), Sanford (1998-2000), MainStay Investments (2001-03), PetroSun (2006-07), AdvoCare Car (2009-2013), Duck Commander Bowl (2014) and now Camping Wordl (2015 to present)! The current official name for the Bowl is Campinmg World Independence Bowl! The first game featured, McNeese, State a member of the Southland Conference and a FCS Affiliate, 20{63 scholarships awarded as opposed to a FBS program that gives 85 Scholarship, this game took place before the current rules/guidelines were in place) Tulsa 17! This game was played on December 13, 1976! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the SEC & ACC. Last year Virginia Tech outlasted Tulsa, 55-52. Bowl Payout: is $1,100,000. 00

Teams: NC State 6-6 (ACC) vs Vanderbilt 6-6 (SEC)

Bowl Location: Independance Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana

Day, Date & Time: Monday, December 26, 2016, 4:00 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): NC State beat UNC (8-4), 28-21; Vanderbilt beat Georgia, 17-16 & Tennessee, 45-34

Worst Losses: NC State Louisville 54-13; Vanderbilt Georgia Tech, 38-7

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: NC State -4

Offensive Team Data: NC State ; Total Yards, 419 YPG; Passing Yards,  262 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  158 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 59%

Offensive Team Data: Vanderbilt ; Total Yards,  359 YPG; Passing Yards, 194 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 165 YPG; Scoring Average  24 PPG, Turnovers,  1 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 95% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70%

Defensive Team Data: NC State ; Total Yards,  356 YPG; Passing Yards,  251 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  105 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 35.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Defensive Team Data: Vanderbilt ; Total Yards,  411 YPG; Passing Yards,  245 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  165 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 66% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 45%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: NC State 415 to 357.5

Passing Yards Advantage: NC State 253.5 to 222.5

Rushing Yard Advantage: NC State 161.5 to 135

Scoring Advantage: NC State 24.5 to 23.5

Turnovers Advantage: Vanderbilt 1.25 to 1.54

3rd Down Conversions Advantage:  NC State 41.35 to 35.55

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Vanderbilt 90% to 71%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Vanderbilt 59.5 to 52

The Game Simulator Says: NC State wins 5 to 3 in the statistical battle and wins the game by a score of 25-24, but does not cover the 4 points NC State is giving Vandy! NC State wins but does not cover! 

Individuals to Watch: Vandy’s QB, Kyle Shurmur 9/7 ratio, 2251 passing yards; NC State’s QB, Ryan Finley, 15/8 Ratio and 2820 passing yards!

Sully Says: Vanderbilt will bring the country best Red Zone defense into this game, yet NC State has the better overall defense. The Wolfpack also have the better overall offense. NC State wins and covers the 4 points!

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