Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

Bowl History: The Cactus Bowl, officially the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl for sponsorship purposes, is an NCAA, FBS, football game that has been played in the state of Arizona since 1989. Originally played in Tucson at Arizona Stadium as the Copper Bowl, the game moved to Chase Field in Phoenix in 2000 and then to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe in 2006. For the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons, the Cactus Bowl is being played at its previous home of Chase Field in Phoenix while Sun Devil Stadium undergoes renovations. During this time, the game will be one of four bowl games that are played in baseball-specific stadiums; the Miami Beach Bowl, played at Marlins, the St. Petersburg Bowl, played at Tropicanna Field, and the Pinstripe Bowl, played at Yankee Stadium are the other three games.

Teams: Boise State 10-2 (MWC) Baylor 6-6 (B-12)

Bowl Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona

Day, Date & Time: Tuesday, December 27, 2016, 9:15 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Bayler beat Oklahoma State (9-3), 35-24, Boise State beat (BYU 8-4), 28-27, Beat Washington State (8-4), 31-28

Worst Losses: Baylor lost to TCU, 62-22; Boise State lost to Air Force, 27-20 (3 loss in a row tp AFA)

Common Opponents: None

Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Boise State -10

Offensive Team Data: Boise St ; Total Yards,  480 YPG; Passing Yards,  298 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  183 YPG; Scoring Average,  36 PPG, Turnovers,  1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 48.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73%

Offensive Team Data: Baylor ; Total Yards,  523 YPG; Passing Yards, 273 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 250 YPG; Scoring Average  35 PPG, Turnovers,  2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 73% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 58%

Defensive Team Data: Boise St ; Total Yards,  398 YPG; Passing Yards,  203 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  195 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  0.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 53%

Defensive Team Data: Baylor ; Total Yards,  436 YPG; Passing Yards,  224 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  212 YPG; Scoring Average,  30 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 67% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 40%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards Advantage: Baylor 460.5 to 458

Passing Yards Advantage: Boise St 261 to 238

Rushing Yard Advantage: Baylor 222.5 to 197.5

Scoring Advantage: Boise St 33 to 29

Turnovers Advantage: Boise St 1.295 to 1.415

3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Boise St 44.85 to 39.65

Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Baylor 8o.5% to 77.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Boise St 56.5% to 55.5%

The Game Simulator Says: Boise St 5, Baylor 3 in the statistical battle, The site like BSU to win (33-29) but not cover. Take Baylor and the 10 points!

Individuals to Watch: BSU QB Brett Rypien 23/8 ratio. 3341 passing yards; Baylor QB Seth Russell 20/8 ratio passed for 2126.

Sully Says: Baylor won its first 6 and then lost 6 in a row, they are now the mess on the field that they are off the field! Take BSU to win and cover