ACC Recruiting & Past and Projected Division Standings

As you review these thoughts, remember this is based on how a program recruits and really nothing else, so my suggestion is … don’t wager the retirement on these numbers this fall! That said, I do believe that, Jimmy’s & Joe’s, with other elements (returning starters, coaching, schedule, injuries, & et alii / et cetera) being, relatively equal, can and often do, overcome other factors.

Ok, let’s take a look at how the ACC recruits, last year’s divisional standings, and what the rosters suggests will happen this year! The composite is a four year average (2015 / 2018) based on the review of three recruiting sites, ESPN, 247 Sports, & Rivals. While it should be noted, that the 2017 standings had the 2014 recruiting class in the mix and the 2018 will have (for the most part) lost that class, but will have added the 2018 class. That said, their ARR (Average Recruiting Rank) will still be relatively close even with 2014 factored out of the ARR & 2018 factored into the ARR! So one could speculate that the 2018 ARR would be an indicator of how a team should have preformed in 2017!

2017 Standing                            2018 Projections/ARR Composite 

Atlantic Division

1. Clemson 7-1                      1. Florida State 5.1
2. NC State 6-2                      2. Clemson 9.2
3. Louisville 4-4                      3. Louisville 32.1
4. Wake Forest 4-4                  4. NC State 40.2
5. Boston College 4-4              5. Syracuse 57.0
6. Florida State 3-5                 6. Wake Forest 58.5
7. Syracuse 2-6                       7. Boston College 65.8

• Florida State is the best recruiting program in the ACC with an ARR of 5.1! They are the 4th best in the nation, behind only, Bama, Ohio State, & Georgia! Their QB, Deondre Francois, was injured in their 1st game of the 2017 season against Alabama, a 24-7 loss; FSU never really recovered! Francois is back and let’s see!
• Clemson has had a tremendous run the past three years, surpassed by only Alabama! The Tigers have played their way into the last 3 CFP, losing in the semi’s in 2017, 24-6 to the Tide, winning the championship in 2016, 35-31 vs Alabama & losing the championship game in 2015, 45-40 to Bama! Impressive!
• Louisville’s ARR is 32.1 which suggest that 31 teams have a better roster across P5 conferences. They were somewhat of an enigma in 2017, beating FSU, 31-18, but losing to BC, 45-42 & WF, 42-32!
• Syracuse with an ARR of 57.0 beat Clemson, 27-24 in 2017. They knocked out QB, Kelly Bryant and Clemson’s roster did not respond as their ARR #, 9.2, would indicate. The Orange had a perfectly upside down season. They lost to WF, 64-43 & BC42-14, two teams they recruit better than, yet found a way against Clemson and Pitt, 27-24, an identical score to their Clemson win!
• Wake Forest overachieved in 2017, beating Louisville, 42-32 & NC State, 30-24. Both of these teams recruit better than WF! Their ARR numbers suggest the Demon Deacons should finish 6th in the Atlantic, in front of only BC!
• Boston College hammered FSU, 35-3, outlscored Louisville, 45-42, & beat Syracuse, 42-14 & Virginia, 41-10. All four of these programs recruit better than the Eagles, who have an ARR of 65.8, better than only one P5 team, Kansas’ 67.8!

            2017 Standing             2018 Projections/ARR Composite

Coastal Division

1. Miami 7-1                       1. Miami 16.2
2. Virginia Tech 5-3             2. North Carolina 27.9
3. Georgia Tech 4-4             3. Virginia Tech 29.6
4. Pittsburgh 3-5                 4. Pittsburgh 41.1
5. Virginia 3-5                     5. Duke 47.2
6. Duke 3-5                        6. Georgia Tech 49.5
7. North Carolina 1-7           7. Virginia 56.1

• Miami breaks away in 2017, usually the Coastal Division is a log jam with 3 teams at 5-3 and a clubs or two at 4-4, not in 2017! Miami separated itself from the pact, going 7-1 in the Coastal, losing to only Pitt, 24-14 in their season finale!
• Virginia Tech was on a collision course with Miami to win the Coastal Division, but the ARR’s kicked in, the U @ 16.2 to the Hokies 29.6! The result in early November was a season changing loss for Va Tech, Miami 28 – VT 14!
• Georgia Tech beat Pitt, 35-17, UNC, 33-7, & Va Tech, 28-22, 3 teams their ARR says they should not have beaten! The only team that they should have handled, that they did not, was Virginia, a 40-36 loss!
• Pitt gave Miami its only divisional loss, 24-14, this was also the Canes, (11-0 at kick-off) 1st lost of the season. That said, Pitt lost to Syracuse, 27-24 & GT, 35-17, two teams their ARR # says they should have beat!
• Virginia recruits better than 3 teams in the ACC, Syracuse, WF, & BC. the issue is all three of those teams are in the Atlantic Division! They  were scheduled to play a cross over game Boston College, however the Cavaliers got smacked by BC, 41-10 and they did not play Wake or Syracuse! In divisional play, they did beat UNC, 20-14, GT, 40-36, & Duke, 28-21, three teams who have a higher ARR!
• Duke Duke is the 5th best recruiting program in the ACC Coastal and tied for 5th place in the division!
• North Carolina in the 2017 season as indicated by their ARR # should have beaten, Duke, lost 27-17, GT, lost 33-7, Virginia, lost 20-14, VT, lost 59-7, & NC State, lost 33-21. They did manage to to beat Pitt, 34-31 for their only ACC and Coastal win in 2017!