The Big East is in the news for a lot of reasons the past few months, none of them particularly good news for the conference. Everything from Pitt & Syracuse leaving the league for the ACC in 2013, to actually losing its best football program, West Virginia, to the Big 12 for the 2012 campaign. The national perception is the Big East status as an AQ or BCS conference, before all that stuff actually goes away in 2014, is that they do not belong in with the other five AQ conferences (Big 12, ACC, Big Ten PAC 12 & SEC) and Notre Dame.
There is a lot of discussion on how this four-team playoff will affect the current non AQ conferences. I think the formula for determining who gets in and who goes to a high paying bowl game will have a very similar affect on the Big East, that is, their not going to these games! This league will be treated very similarly to Conference-USA (C-USA) or the Mountain West Conference (MWC) in an open market selection process. In fact, had Utah, BYU, and TCU stayed in the MWC, with the addition of Boise State, that alignment would have created a superior conference to the current Big East.
The Big East does have a solution to their woes and I can give it to you in two words…. Notre Dame! The Irish are current members of the conference in every sport except football, and ND’s inclusion on the gridiorn would equal…game over … Big East would be back in the mix. Clearly, this would take a miracle, so here is the plan: the Big East Presidents should stage a fake meeting in Chicago. Shortly after their arrival, they clandestinely sneak out of their hotel & head east on 90-94 to South Bend. It is critical to this plan that they be armed with wheat bread & wine with a hope to leave Indiana with body & blood… a new meaning re: transubstantiation! Hey, given the current situation …it is worth a shot!
The current Big East has eight teams: Syracuse, Rutgers, Connecticut, Temple, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Louisville & South Florida. Here are some of the challenges faced by the conference:
1) The league’s largest stadium is Temple’s ( ironically, the Owls were kicked out of the Big East in 2004 for failing to generate adequate fan support) Lincoln Financial which seats 68,532, yet Temple averages only 28,060 per home game. Every other major football conference has arenas that seat in excess of 80,000 and the seats are occupied. This is clearly an eye sore for a major conference, as the TV cameras pan all those empty seats. The Big East average attendance in 2010 was last among the AQ conferences at 45,028 compared to the SEC’s 76,719, Big Ten’s 72,106, Big 12’s 62,975, PAC 12’s 53,919, and ACC’s 51,493.
2) Their performance in BCS Bowls as been less than stellar, but not bad at 3-3 since 2006. Louisville did win the Orange Bowl against Wake Forest, 24-13, in 2006 and West Virginia won the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, pounding Oklahoma 48-28 and their annihilation of Clemson in 2011, 70-33. The problem is West Virginia, who has two of the Big East’s three wins is now gone.
3) What happens when Pitt & Syracuse leave in 2013 and do all or some of the teams targeted by the Big East go the way of TCU? What really will happen with Boise State, San Diego State, Central Florida, Houston, Southern Methodist, Memphis in 2013 & with Navy scheduled to join the in 2015? Who knows?
4) Syracuse’s Doug Marrone is the tenured dean of Big East coaches with a total of 4 years of experience with the the Orange… that’s right… 4 years. This merry-go-round of coaches suggests that Big East coaching positions are more akin to stepping stones than destination points. This coaching carousel is reflective of the conferences overall instability and needs to be addressed if they are to stay among college football elite.
As for as who wins the Big East in 2012, look for Skip Holtz’s South Florida and Charlie Strong’s Louisville (both ND guys… so maybe this transubstantiation thing will work?) to battle for the title.
Cincinnati did win10 games a year ago, including a win in the Liberty Bowl over Vanderbilt, however, Butch Jones (3rd year) has only 4 starters back on offense and must replace his QB.
Paul Chryst (1st year), Pittsburgh’s head coach has 14 starters back, 9 on offense including his QB. Pitt did pound South Florida a year ago, 44-17 and beat Louisville 21-14. Pitt is clearly in the mix and Chryst will bring a Big Ten smash mouth style of play into the Conference.
Connecticut’s schedule is not favorable for a title run this year as they must play South Florida and Louisville on the road. Paul Pasqualoni will have to draw from his many years of experience to keep his team competitive. He has added good talent from the Junior College ranks at QB and at wide receiver with transfers.
Rutgers has a new coach, Kyle Flood, who is replacing the man who put Rutgers football back in the national spotlight, Greg Schiano. The Scarlet Knights were 9-4 a year ago and do return 15 starters, 7 on offense, including the QB. The conference schedule is not helpful as they must play Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and South Florida on the road.
Syracuse’s non conference schedule is ambitious this year, as they take on 4 BCS opponents (somebody needs to talk/yell to/at the AD) and Temple, while an improved program will struggle as it relearns the Big East. Look for the Orange and Owls to be home during the bowl season in 2012.
Big East Predictions
1) Louisville, 2) South Florida, 3) Pittsburgh, 4) Cincinnati. 5) Rutgers, 6) Connecticut, 7) Syracuse, 8) Temple.
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