New Look Big 12

Gone from the Big 12 are Texas A&M and Missouri (SEC) for the 2012 season, these teams followed Nebraska (Big Ten) and Colorado (PAC 12) who had departed to their respective leagues for the 2011 campaign. For a time, it looked like Texas and other Big 12 teams may be headed to the PAC 12, that did not happen and it now appears that the Big 12 is  emerging as strong or even stronger, than in the past.

West Virginia and TCU have joined the league and one could certainly make the case that these teams are as good or better than A&M and Missouri in recent years. One does not need to be psychic or a  time clairvoyant to suspect that the Big 12 may set its sights on Boise State and BYU. This would allow the Big 12 to re-establish a two division league with a conference championship game. These teams have a strong presence in the national psyche and BYU has a 64,045 capacity stadium which would make them the 3rd largest in the conference behind Texas 100,119 & Oklahoma at 82,112.  While Boise State beat Oklahoma, 43-42, in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl. This game had everything: trick plays, overtime, occasional defense, and even a marriage proposal.

The North would/could consist of Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, BYU, & Boise State, while the South would host Texas, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, & Oklahoma State. A very good line-up that would have representation in seven different states. The one area of expansion that I believe the Big 12 needs to avoid is allowing another Texas team into the league. Those of us old enough to remember the Southwest Conference, remember the acronym, SWC, being referenced as not the Southwest Conference, but rather as the So What Conference! This was due, in no small part, to the fact that the entire conference was in Texas.  A seven state league has clear advantages in marketing and national interest to a “good old boy” Texas Rodeo!

So what about the here and now in 2012? I think it would be accurate to say that 5 teams have an excellent to good shot at the title: Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU, Texas & Kansas State.

Oklahoma has 15 starters back, including their QB, Landry Jones, WR Kenny Stills and a very talented O-line that returns 4 of 5 starters. The D-line is both young and talented, while the L-backers and Secondary are both talented and experienced. If the D-line is able to pressure the pass, this will be the difference between another 10 win season or something much more in 2012. I must say, I do not like OU’s schedule; @ WV, @ TCU and as always,Texas in Dallas. That said, I am counting on “Big Game Bob” finding a-way in these away games. Prediction: First

West Virginia gives new meaning to the concept of speed at the wide receiver position, Tavon Austin (1186 Total Receiving Yards) and Stedman Bailey (1279 TRY) are sudden! Last year against the vaunted LSU secondary, Bailey and especially Austin made Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu look tardy as the Mountaineers passed for 463 against a secondary some thought was the best in the country. Not me…Bama’s was better… but that is another story. WV’s QB Geno Smith is an outstanding player, who passed for over 4300 yards in 2011. The O-line plays in a pass happy scheme and is a terrific pass blocking unit but needs to improve its run block skills, if WV is to keep Big 12 D’s honest. The Mountaineer D is why I am not picking them first! Prediction: Second 

Texas has one of the most popular coaches in all of college football, Mack Brown and one of the winningest in Texas history at 141-39 since taking over the program in 1998. That said, recent won/lost history has not been where the Longhorn faithful demand it be, 5-7 in 2010 and 8-5 in 2011 will simply not cut it in Texas. Texas has 15 starters back for the 2012 season, 9 on offense, including their QB, David Ash. Mack absolutely needs to settle on Ash and let him play through mistakes. Colt McCoy younger brother, Case, should be relegated to the backup roll, allowing Ash to focus down field not over his shoulder. Malcolm Brown is an excellent runner and their O-line is the most experienced in years. Texas’ defense may be the best in the Big 12 and the ‘Horns’ do boast the best secondary in the conference. If QB play improves Texas can win the Big 12… However, I believe high quality QB play is a year away. Prediction: Third

TCU: Gary Patterson has led TCU back to the big time, he has taken his university from the WAC to C-USA to the Mountain West and now, to the Big 12. On this journey, he was named Coach of the Year in C-USA (2002), MWC  (2005 & 2009) and named Top Coach in 2009 by 55 college football coaches polled by ESPN. Not to mention, a Rose Bowl victory over an outstanding Wisconsin team in 2010. TCU returns 11 starters for the 2012 season 6 on offense, including the QB and 5 on ‘D’. The Frogs will not be even remotely intimated vs a Big 12 schedule, as they are 16-4 against AQ opponents since the inception of the BCS in 1998. The schedule is the real challenge, quality opponents will now surface on a week to week basis, not two or three a year as in past. In 2012, TCU will play 10 BCS non-conference and conference games.  The Frogs’ Big 12 schedule is challenging: @ WV and OSU and end the season against three of the Big 12 best, home vs Kansas State, @ Texas and host Oklahoma to end regular season. Prediction: Fourth 

Kansas State plays at  OU, WV, & TCU & Texas at home on the last day of the regular season. Last year, The Wildcats lived a charmed life, they beat Texas A&M and Baylor by 1, Eastern Kentucky by 3, Miami Fl. & Texas by 4,  Missouri, Texas Tech, and Iowa State by 7. In other words 8 of their 10 wins were by 7 or less points, they also were a plus 12 in the turnover battle, 27-15. It will be tough to match those numbers! Prediction: Fifth

Texas Tech  returns 17 starters, most in the Big 12 and do play Oklahoma, West Virginia, & Texas at home. This team is coming off a 5-7 season and are ably led by Tommy Tuberville. To be honest, I am not sure where to place this squad. Their schedule is favorable, they are experienced, and well coached. If you are the betting sort… pay attention to this team… point spreads will be less of an issue…. as I do not believe these experienced players and talented coaches will care who is at the other end of the field or where they are playing! Prediction: Sixth

Oklahoma State has only 12 starters back and just 4 on offense. Their all universe wide out, Justin Blackmon and record setting QB, Brandon Weeden, have left the building! Coach Gundy and staff will do a good job and keep the cowboys competitive, but they will be hard pressed to finish higher than 7th in the standings. One good thing for the Pokes is they do play TCU, Texas, and West Virginia at home. Prediction: Seventh

Baylor won 10 games a year ago and actually had the Heisman Trophy winner in Robert Griffin the III. All these months later it still sound like science fiction!  Baylor, 10 wins, beat Texas, beat Oklahoma, Heisman winner, c’mom man, wake up, this is Waco not wacko! Art Briles and his team lived a dream a year ago and the confidence that the 14 returning starters gained in 2011 will be high as they head into the 2012 season. That said, RG3 is gone and so is his ability to make something out of not much. In 13 games a year ago, Baylor scored 40 or more points 9 times. I just don’t think with Griffin graduated that points will come in the same quantity and the ‘D’s quality is suspect, as they did give up 30 or more points 10 times. Prediction: Eight

Kansas Charlie Weis and Dayne Crist not in South Bend… but in Lawrence? Kansas? I better click my heels! I can not wait to see what happens with these two! Charlie has 14 starters back, 7 on each side of the ball. The offense should be better immediately, the D however, is another story! Last year they gave up over 40 points 8 times and Charlie is somewhat clueless with that side of the ball or it certainly appeared that way with his ND teams! Prediction: Ninth

 Iowa State Paul Rhodes is 18-20 at Iowa State… How good of a coach is this guy? Remember Gene Chizik? Rumblin, bumblin, & stumblin around Ames? I think 5-19! My thought, if I were an AD in the SEC and the football job opened up at my school, I’d be talking to Rhodes! Simply based on what Chizik did with the Cyclones and then his success at Auburn coupled with what Rhodes has done with same Iowa State program vs Big 12 teams! Prediction: Tenth