AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Bowl History: The Independence Bowl became one of the First Bowls to recognize the significance of using a sponsor’s name in the official bowl title  …..  to generate more $’s in off-setting the economic costs of running a college football bowl game! Thus born … the Poulan Weed-Eater Independence Bowl in 1990 ( a side effect, however unintended, of using this particular sponsor …. was that the fans began referring to  second tier bowls as “Weedwhacker Bowls”) There have been a host of sponsors for the Independence Bowl: Weedeater (1990-96), Sanford (1998-2000), MainStay Investments (2001-03), PetroSun (2006-07), … AdvoCare Car (2009 to present)! The current … official …. name for the Bowl is …. AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl! The first game featured, McNeese State (a member of the Southland Conference and a FCS Affiliate … 63 scholarships awarded as opposed to a FBS program that gives 85 Scholarship … this game took place before the current rules/guidelines were in place) 20  vs Tulsa 17, played on December 13, 1976! Last year’s game had Missouri (then Big 12 …. now SEC) pounding North Carolina (ACC), 41-24, on December 26, 2011! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the SEC & ACC and the Bowl Payout is $1,100,000. 00!

Teams: Ohio: Conference Affiliation: MAC; Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record 4-4, Divisional Record 3-3 (East Division of the MAC)   ….  vs ….   Louisiana Monroe:  Conference Affiliation: Sun Belt; Overall Record 8-4; Conference Record 6-2 !

Bowl Location: The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl is played in Shreveport, Louisiana! The hosting arena is Independence Stadium, which has a seating capacity of 53, 000! That said, last year’s game’s (2011) actual attendance was 41,728 or 78.73% of capacity!

Day, Date, & Time: Friday, 11/28/2012 @ 1:00 p.m.

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Ohio: beat Penn State, 24-14 on opening day, 9/1/12; Louisiana Monroe: stopped 8th ranked Arkansas ( @ a time when people thought that they would/could compete in the SEC West) 34-31 in OT.

Worst Losses:  Ohio: lost three in a row to end the season ….Bowling Green 26-14, @ Ball State 52-27, and @ Kent State, 28-6!  Louisiana Monroe: lost two close games to Auburn 31-28 & Baylor 47-42 … wins here and ULM would have been ranked in the Nation’s Top 25 …… could of / should of won them both!

Common Opponents: None…

Las Vegas Hotsheet: This game opened at ULM -6 and has moved to ULM -7!

Offensive Team Data: Ohio: Total Yards, 436 YPG; Passing Yards, 234 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 202 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 0.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Offensive Team Data: Louisiana Monroe: Total Yards, 441 YPG; Passing Yards, 295 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 146 YPG; Scoring Average 36 PPG, Turnovers, 1.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 74%

Defensive Team Data: Ohio: Total Yards, 396 YPG; Passing Yards, 230 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 166 YPG; Scoring Average 26 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 91% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: Louisiana Monroe: Total Yards, 407 YPG; Passing Yards, 272 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 136 YPG; Scoring Average 28 PPG, Turnovers, 2.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 78% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Ohio’s total yards on offense, add it to what ULM gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking ULM’s total offense, add it to what Ohio gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: Ohio 421 to 419

Passing Yards: Advantage: ULM 263 to 253

Rushing Yards: Advantage: Ohio 169 to 156

Scoring: Advantage: ULM 31 to 30

Turnovers: Advantage: Ohio 1.34 to 1.58

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: ULM 46.3% to 42.6%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: ULM 87% to 79%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: ULM 73% to 56%

Individuals to Watch: Louisiana’s QB, Kolton Browning, is a rising star in the college game; passing for 2830 yards … 27 TD’s to 7 picks ….despite missing almost two full games they (ULM) went 7-2 in their last 9 games … you got it .. the two he missed… they lost …. ULL 40-24 (injured in this game) & Arkansas State 45-23! He was also their leading rusher 441 yards and 7 TD’s … ULM will go as Browning goes … No Question!! Brent Leonard has emerged as Browning favorite target,  catching 97 balls (7th best in the country) for 1,042 yards & 10 TD’s! Ohio will hit back through the likes of Beau Blankenship (2nd Team All-MAC), the nations 10th leading rusher ….  averaging 125 yards per game!  While the Bobcat’s QB, Tyler Tettleton, has thrown for 2513 yards, 16 TD’s & 3 INT’s!

Sully Says: ULM comes in riding a 2 game winning streak (North Texas, 42-16 & FIU, 23-17 in OT) while Ohio stumbles in having lost three in a row (see worst losses)! You have to give the coaching edge to Ohio’s, Frank Solich, as he has been there & done that (114-63 including this year’s 8-4 overall record …..  in his 6 years at Nebraska …. he was 58-19 & then … those dopes fired him)!  Meanwhile, Todd Berry, ULM’s Coach, has just experienced his first winning season at ULM (8-4 /career record including this year is 22-55 … @ ULM 17-19) Check out ULM in Red Zone penetration / scoring TD’s  …. significantly better than Ohio,  ULM 74% to Ohio 50% (see Offensive Game Data Above) for the season and when compared to/against one another (in the Game Simulator Above) …. the gap remains significant 73% for the Warhawks to the Bobcats 56%. This fact and Browning’s play … leads to  ….  Sully’s CFP saying …. ULM will win and Cover the 7 spot!