The Independence Bowl began in 1976 (I am thinking Spirit of 76 was part of the planning) in Shreveport, Louisiana. The Champion of the Southland Conference (check site for Southland Conference membership and other details) would take on an independent that the committee would identify and invite. This setup lasted for 5 years, then in 1981, the format changed, the bowl committee would now invite two independents to participate in the game. In 1995 it changed again, the mighty SEC was given one spot and the other was awarded to an independent. Beginning in 1998 and running through 2009, the Independence folks tried to pit the SEC entry against a Big 12 opponent, if those conferences had an available represented… if not.. the Bowl would look for and identify a team from another conference. Since 2010, the Independence Bowl conference tie-ins have been with the Mountain West (3rd place team) and the ACC (7th place team).
The Sponsors have varied over the years. In 1990, its first economic partner was Poulan Weedeater (1990-96) and the bowl became known as the Poulan Weed-Eater Independence Bowl (gave rise to the to unceremonious descriptor “Weedwhacker Bowl”… to express disappointment for landing in an inferior bowl game… the phrase was then applied universally to any and all bowls when the fan base was unhappy with the significance of the bowl). In 1998 through 2000 the bowl was sponsored by Sanford (writing products) followed by MainStay Investments, who took over in 2001 and held sponsorship until 2003. PetroSun took over these duties in 2006 and 2007 and Advocare from 2009 to present. The Independence Bowl has had many years where the game did not have a sponsor.
The first Independence Bowl was played December 13, 1976 and won by McNeese State 20-16, over Tulsa and last year’s game pitted Air Force against Georgia Tech, a contest won by the Falcons, 14-7.
This year’s game pairs two teams that have had outside the lines issues to deal with in addition to concentrating on game week preparation. Missouri, out of the Big 12, has had to deal with their on again… off again… and then… the move to the SEC. While North Carolina, an ACC team, had to deal with NCAA sanctions and then… lost their coach, Butch Davis, days before the season was set to begin. This is the first of many AQ conference match-ups and should put the skills levels of the Tigers directly in the sights of the Tar Heals’ athleticism.
Let’s take a peek and see what the season stats tell us?
Head to Head and Common Opponents
These teams have not played in the past 6 years, so the players will have nothing to draw on from an earlier experience, in fact, the Tar Heels have not lined up against a Big 12 opponent in that same time frame. The same is true for the Tigers, they have not laced them up against the ACC in the past six years… so nothing to be learned with this (or lack of) data. Advantage: Push
Total Offense & Defense
Missouri averages 473 YPG (Yards Per Game) to North Carolina’s 396, while on defense, the Heels are giving up 353 YPG to the Tigers, surrendering an average of 383 yards. Missouri is averaging 77 more yards of offense while North Carolina is slightly better on defense, allowing 30 fewer yards per game. Advantage: Missouri
Rushing Offense & Defense
Missouri rushed the ball for 237 YPG to North Carolina’s 147 yards per game, on defense North Carolina held its opponents to 106 YPG while the Tigers allowed an average of 136 yards running the ball. Missouri had a sizable advantage in running the ball, 90 YPG, while the Tar Heels were the superior team defending the run, a differential of 30 YPG. Advantage: Missouri
Passing Offense & Defense
The Heels are passing the ball for an average of 249 YPG while Missouri counters with 237 (A very balanced offense, as they run for an average of 237 YPG as well) passing yards per game. Defending the pass, we find both teams giving up 247 YPG, to break the tie, Carolina has allowed 2961 Total Passing Yards this season to Missouri 2967. Advantage: North Carolina
Scoring Offense & Defense
Missouri puts up 32 Points Per Game (PPG) to North Carolina’s average of 28 points in each contest. Once again, an anomaly, both teams are allowing 24 PPG and we cannot break tie with total points this time, in that, the Heels & Tigers have surrendered an identical 282 points this season! Advantage: Missouri
Turnovers Gained & Lost
Missouri has forced 20 turnovers this season for an average of 1.67 Turnovers Per Game (TPG), while North Carolina has taken the ball away 23 times for an average of 1.92 take aways in each game. On Offense, the Tigers have given it up 18 times this season for an average of 1.5 TPG, while the Heels have lost the ball on 24 occasions for an average of 2 TPG. Thus…. Turnover Margin: Missouri is a positive .12, while North Carolina is a negative .08. Advantage: Missouri
3rd Down Conversions Offense & Defense
North Carolina is successful 38.9 percent of the time on 3rd down (56 conversions in 144 attempts) while Missouri has converted 37.3 (63 0f 169). Defensively, Missouri allows 3rd down conversions an even 40.0 percent (78 / 195) to the Tar Heels 42.8% (77 / 180). So North Carolina is more successful on 3rd down conversions (a plus 1.6) than Missouri. The Tigers are better at stopping opponents on 3rd down (a plus 2.8) than the Heels defense. The 3rd down conversion margin for UNC defense is 42.8% (times they stop their opponent) minus 38.9% (conversions that are successful by Heels offense) equals a negative margin of 3.9% (times defense failed to stop an opponent are greater than times the offense was successful). While Missouri’s numbers are 40.0% (times they stop their opponent) less 37.3 (conversions successful by Tigers) this equals a negative margin of 2.7 (times defense failed to stop an opponent are greater than times the offense was successful). Based on the 3rd down Conversions, Stops & Margin…. Advantage: Missouri
Red Zone offense & Defense
Missouri has been in the Red Zone 51 times this season and scored on 45 of those visits, with 33 of those scores being TD’s. The Tigers score 88% of the time when they penetrate your Red Zone (20 yard line to the goal line) of which 65% are touchdowns. North Carolina has broken into the Red Zone 46 times this year and scored on 37 of those entries, of which, 33 have been touchdowns. The Heels score points 80% of the time when you find them in the Red Zone and 72% of those break-ins resulted in a TD. So while Missouri has more experiences in the Red Zones (51 to 46) and is more likely to score (88 to 80%); North Carolina has done the better job of scoring TD’s when entering the Zone (72 to 65%). Interestingly, both teams have scored 33 TD’s from Red Zone penetrations!
On Defense, North Carolina has allowed its opponents into the RZ 40 times this season resulting in 30 scores, 18 of those scores have been TD’s. UNC’s percentage results are 75% of the time their opposition gets into the Zone, they score, of which, 45% of those visits result in touchdowns. Meanwhile, Missouri’s Red Zone has been invaded 44 times this year with 33 of those invasions resulting in scores, 24 of the 33 scores have been TD’s. The Tigers percentages are as follows, 75% of Red Zone incursions result in a score for their opponent, of which 55% are TD’s. Advantage: North Carolina
Las Vegas odds makers’ had Missouri as a 3 1/2 point favorite (when it opened the line), the waging public agreed, and the point spread has risen to 5 1/2 to 6 based on dollar flow. Vegas had it right when it opened with Missouri being a 3.5 point favorite…. 5.5 to 6.0 is about them making $’s.
The statistical analysis done here suggests Missouri wins a close game!
Missouri 28 North Carolina 24
Share on Twitter
Share on Facebook
Subscribe