AllState Sugar Bowl

Bowl History: The Sugar Bowl was established in 1935 and along with the Orange  & Sun, is the second oldest bowl behind only the Rose! The first game in this series featured Tulane and Temple, played on January 1,1935. The inaugural game was won by Tulane, 20-14! Last year’s event, the 78th Sugar Bowl, had Michigan outlasting Virginia Tech, 23-20. The Conference tie-ins are the SEC (unless the SEC Champion is in the BCS National Championship Game) and an at large selection! The payout for the Sugar Bowl is $17,000,000.00

Teams:  Florida: Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record 7-1, Divisional Record 5-1 (SEC’s East Division) vs Louisville:  Conference Affiliation: Big East; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record: 5-2!

Bowl Location: New Orleans, Louisiana … played @ the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the seating capacity @ the facility is 73,208. Last year’s game which featured Michigan and Virginia Tech, was attended by 64,512 or 88.12% of Superdome’s capacity.

Day, Date, & Time: Wednesday, 1/2/13 @ 7:30 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Florida: beat Texas A&M, 20-17, LSU, 14-6, Vandy, 31-17, South Carolina, 44-11, & Florida State, 37-25; Louisville: North Carolina, 39-34, Pittsburgh, 45-35,  Cincinnati,34-31 in OT, & Rutgers, 20-17

Worst Losses: Florida: Georgia, 17-9 kept them out of the SEC Championship and a possible birth in the National Championship game vs ND, Louisville: lost to Syracuse, 45-26 & U-Conn, 23-20 in 3 OT’s!

Common Opponents: Kentucky: Florida beat the Wildcats, 38-0 while Louisville beat Kentucky, 32-15

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ Florida -14 has moved to Florida -13

Offensive Team Data: Florida: Total Yards, 355 YPG; Passing Yards, 156 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 200 YPG; Scoring Average 27 PPG, Turnovers, 0.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 83% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 52%

Offensive Team Data: Louisville: Total Yards, 426 YPG; Passing Yards, 299 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 127 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 1.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 48.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 96% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: Florida: Total Yards, 283 YPG; Passing Yards, 191 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 92 YPG; Scoring Average 13 PPG, Turnovers, 2.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 72% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 47%

Defensive Team Data: Louisville: Total Yards, 345 YPG; Passing Yards, 194 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 151 YPG; Scoring Average 24 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Florida’s total yards on offense, add it to what Louisville gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Louisville’s total offense, add it to what the Gators give up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Louisville 355 to 350

Passing Yards: Advantage Louisville 245 to 175

Rushing Yards: Advantage Florida 176 to 110

Scoring: Advantage Florida 26 to 22

Turnovers: Advantage Florida 1.25 to 1.84

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Louisville 40.8% to 39.3

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Florida 85% to 84%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Louisville/Florida 57.5% to 57.5%

Individuals to Watch: Florida: Safety, Matt Elam leads a tough Florida defense that ranks third in the country in points allowed this season. The Gators have intercepted 19 passes and allowed only 5 passing TD’s in 2012! RB, Mike Gillislee has rushed for 1100 plus yards and 10 TD to offset a passing game that is, at times, absent! Finally, QB Jeff Driskel, while not being asked to do a whole lot, has done a good job of limiting his mistake from a year ago …  throwing 11 TD’s to 3 INT’s & averaging 19.6 passing attempts for 133.7  yards per game! Louisville: QB, Teddy Bridgewater, the Big East Offensive Player of the Year, has passed for 3,452 yards, 25 TD’s, 7 INT, and completed 69% of his passing attempts! He may also be the toughest guy on the Louisville roster having played with a broken wrist and a sprained ankle. This guy is a winner!

Sully Says: While Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater is to be respected … it is doubtful that he has seen a defense this year that is anywhere near as good as the one he will line up against tonight! Florida’s front 7 will stop the run (give up 92 rushing yards per game) and pressure Bridgewater by overpowering and or running by Louisville’s O-line. The Cardinals have been on a BCS stage once, in 2007,  and they beat Wake Forest, 24-13. That said …. this is not Wake Forest!! The Gators have appeared in 6 BCS Bowls and are 5-1 in this arena …. only Ohio State and Oklahoma have been to more BCS games!! Florida truly believes that they should be playing for the national championship and will try to make that statement tonight! Sully’s CFP Says… Florida wins and covers the 13… this game will not be close!