BBVA Compass Bowll

Bowl History: This bowl (formally know as Birmingham Bowl 2006 & the Papajohns.com Bowl 2006-2010), was established in 2006, and became the BBVA Compass Bowl on November 4, 2010! Conference Tie-ins are the Big East / SEC, with the alternates being C-USA & the MAC. The first game was played December 23, 2006 … South Florida 24,  East Carolina 6 and the defending Champion from 2011 is SMU, who hammered Pittsburgh 28 to 6, on January 6, 2012!

Teams: Pitt: Conference Affiliation: Big East; Overall Record 6-6, Conference Record 3-4, vs Old Miss Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 6-6, Conference Record: 3-5, Divisional Record 3-3 (SEC West Division)

Bowl Location: This bowl is played annually @ Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama! The seating capacity of Legion Field is 71,594 with the greatest number of fans to attend this bowl being 45,254, on January 2, 2010, when Connecticut beat South Carolina, 20-7. The smallest crowd to see the BBVA Compass Bowl was the last one played on January 7, 2012 …. 29,726!

Day, Date, & Time: Saturday, 1/5/13 @ 12:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Pitt: beat Rutgers, 27-6 & Virginia Tech, 35-17  Ole Miss: beat Mississippi State, 41-24, to win the Egg Bowl (not really a bowl game or even a post season battle .. just played as a regular season game with in-state trash talking rights on the line…1st win for Ole Miss in 4 long years)!

Worst Losses:: Pitt: Youngstown State: 31-17; Ole Miss: Texas, 66-31 @ home!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Game opened @ Ole Miss -2 has moved to Ole Miss -3.5

Offensive Team Data: Pitt: Total Yards, 409 YPG; Passing Yards, 254 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 155 YPG; Scoring Average 27 PPG, Turnovers, 0.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Offensive Team Data: Ole Miss: Total Yards, 427 YPG; Passing Yards, 257 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 171 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 2.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 66%

Defensive Team Data: Pitt: Total Yards, 326 YPG; Passing Yards, 199 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 127 YPG; Scoring Average 20 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 78% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: Ole Miss: Total Yards, 385 YPG; Passing Yards, 251 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 134 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 2.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 48%

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Pitt’s total yards on offense, add it to what Ole Miss gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Ole Miss’s total offense, add it to what the Panthers give up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Pitt 397 to 377

Passing Yards: Advantage Pitt 253 to 228

Rushing Yards: Advantage Ole Miss 149 to 145

Scoring: Advantage Pitt 28 to 26

Turnovers: Advantage Pitt 1.42 to 1.96

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Ole Miss 44.4% to 39.8%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Ole Miss 84% to 80%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Ole Miss 58% to 54%

Individuals to Watch: Pitt: QB, Tino Sunseri has passed for 3101 yards, 19 TD’s, 2 INT’s and has completed 67% of his attempts, RB, Ray Graham, has rushed for 1,042 yards, averaged 4.7 yards per carry,& scored 11 TD’s,  …. Graham will play on Sunday, WR, Mike Shanahan has caught 58 passes for 928 yards while averaging 16 yards per catch and scoring 5 TD’s. Ole Miss: will counter with QB, Bo Wallace  – who has passed for 2843 yards, 19 TD’s, 15 INT’s and has completed 63% of his attempts, RB, Jeff Scott, has rushed for 828 yards, averaged 4.3 yards per carry, & scored 6 TD’s, WR, Donte Moncrief has caught 60 passes for 948 yards while averaging 15.8 yards per catch and scoring 10 TD’s.

Sully Says: The Game Simulator has the contest a statistical tie … 4 to 4 (see above) … keep in mind those stats were earned in the Big East for Pitt & the SEC for Ole Miss! Pitt has a clear edge in QB play with Sunseri’s 2 INT’s to Wallace’s 15 .. and as a result .. Pitt should win the turnover battle. That said, Wallace is far and away the better runner, 363 yards & has rushed for 8 TD’s!  Pitt has the statistical advantage in total, passing, & rushing defense … while Ole Miss is better on on 3rd down conversion and in the Red Zone, both on all scores TD’s & FG’s ( 90% to 82%)  and on scoring TD’s only (66% to 60%)! See Head to Head on the site …. for a side by side comparison! Pitt lost to Youngstown State, an FCS team, 31-17, from the Missouri Valley, this loss is hard to exercise from one’s mind in projecting an outcome for this game. And, while it is true that Pitt has played much better as the season has gone on … they did lose to U-Conn (5-7 overall record) on November 9th, 24-17. Sully’s CFP Says …. take Ole Miss and give Pitt the 3.5!