BCS National Championship

Bowl History: The BCS National Championship was first played in 1998 and has been played annually since its inaugural year! This championship series will come to an end after the 2013 campaign, as a four team play-off is scheduled for 2014 season! The tie-ins are the Number 1 and the Number 2 ranked teams in the BCS Poll!! The first game played in this bowl series took place on January 4, 1998, between Tennessee and Florida State, a game won by the Volunteers, 23-16! Last year’s game was played January 9, 2012 between Alabama and LSU, a game won by Bama, 21-0! The BCS Championship payout is $18,000,000.00!

Teams: Alabama: Conference Affiliation: SEC Overall Record 12-1, Conference Record 8-1, Divisional Record 5-1 (SEC West Division)  vs Notre Dame  Conference Affiliation: Independent; Overall Record 12-0, Conference Record: NA!

Bowl Location: Miami Gardens, Florida  … played @ Sun Life Stadium , the seating capacity @ the facility is 78,468. Last year’s game which featured Alabama and LSU, was attended by 78,237 and the site of the 2012 Championship Game was  the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Day, Date, & Time: Monday, 1/7/13, @ 7:00 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Alabama: beat LSU 21-17, Mississippi State, 38-7 (MSU came into the game undefeated …. 7-0), & Georgia, 32-28!  Notre Dame: beat Stanford, 20-13, Oklahoma, 31-13, & USC, 22-13

Worst Losses: Alabama: lost to Texas A&M, 29-24 …. almost kept them out of the BCS National Championship Game; Notre Dame: None!

Common Opponents: One, Michigan …. Bama stomped the Wolverines, 41-14 while ND survived Big Blue, 13-6

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened @ Alabama -10.5 …. has moved to Alabama -10

Offensive Team Data: Alabama: Total Yards, 439 YPG; Passing Yards, 214 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 225 YPG; Scoring Average 38 PPG, Turnovers, 1.15 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 46.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 72%

Offensive Team Data: Notre Dame: Total Yards, 421 YPG; Passing Yards, 219 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 203 YPG; Scoring Average 27 PPG, Turnovers, 1.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 47%

Defensive Team Data: Alabama: Total Yards, 246 YPG; Passing Yards, 166 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 80 YPG; Scoring Average 11 PPG, Turnovers, 2.15 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.54%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 63% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 52%

Defensive Team Data: Notre Dame: Total Yards, 287 YPG; Passing Yards, 194 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 92 YPG; Scoring Average 10 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 64% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 24%

Sully’s Game Simulator:  is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Alabama’s total yards on offense, add it to what ND gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking ND’s total offense, add it to what the Crimson Tide gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards: Advantage  Alabama 363 to 334

Passing Yards: Advantage Alabama 204 to 193

Rushing Yards: Advantage Alabama 159 to 142

Scoring: Advantage Alabama 24 to 19

Turnovers: Advantage Alabama 1.55 to 1.64

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Alabama 40.65% to 39.85%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Alabama 77% to 71%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Notre Dame 50% to 48%

Individuals to Watch: Alabama: QB, A.J. McCarron has passed for 2669 yards, 26 TD’s, 3 INT’s, and has completed 67% of his attempts, RB, Eddie Lacy, has rushed for 1182 yards, averaged 6.4 yards per carry, & scored 16 TD’s, while teammate, T.J. Yeldon, has rushed for 1,000 yards, averaged 6.5 yards per carry & scored 11 TD’s. WR, Amari Cooper has caught 53 passes for 895 yards while averaging 16.9 yards per catch and scoring 9 TD’s. Notre Dame: will counter with QB, Evert Golson, who has passed for 2135 yards, 11 TD’s, 5 INT’s and has completed 59% of his attempts, RB, Theo Riddick, has rushed for 880 yards, averaged 4.9 yards per carry, & scored 5 TD’s, while fellow running mate, Cierre Wood, has rushed for 740 yards, averaged 6.7 yards per carry & scored 4 TD’s.  TE, Tyler Eifert has caught 44 passes for 624 yards while averaging 14.2 yards per catch and scoring 4 TD’s.

Sully Says: Bama dominates ND on Sully’s CFP Game Simulator 7 to 1 in its statistical analysis, the Irish only advantage was / is in scoring TDs in the Red Zone. QB play favors the Tide and wide receiver, Amari Cooper’s -53 receptions out-distances ND’s TE, Tyler Eifert’s 44 receptions. The Tide rolls into the title game having won the SEC Championship Game ….  over a determined Georgia, 32-28 and 12 of 13 games overall in 2012; while the Irish won all 12 of this year’s regular season games, two in OT (Stanford & Pitt …. 3 OT’s)! This game is shaping up as a defensive battle and for the first time, in a long time, the SEC does not have a significant advantage over their opponent …. and ….  in fact, may not have an advantage at all! Total Defense; Bama is ranked 1st (246 YPG) …. the Irish 6th (287), Rushing Defense; The Tide is 1st in the country (80 YPG) while ND is 4th (92 YPG)  Passing Defense ND is the best in the nation ….  giving up 9.68 YPC (in fact, ND is the only team in the country that gives up less than 10 yards per completion) to Bama’s …. 11.3 yards per catch; Scoring Defense; ND 1st @ 10.33 with Bama 2nd @ 10.69; Red Zone Defense;  Bama is better than ND at defending against all scores (TD’s & FG’s) when defending RZ penetrations (63% Bama to 64% Irish)  …. while ND is better at keeping opponents from scoring TD’s (24% of the time opponents will score TD’s against the Irish D to 52% vs Bama D) … Always remember …. these statistics/numbers were earned against different opponents … so this begs the question …. who (Alabama or Notre Dame) played the better schedule? ND beat 12 opponents …. so did Bama … 9 of ND’s opponents went to Bowl Games (USC .. lost, Purdue .. lost, Pitt .. lost, Michigan .. lost, Navy .. lost, BYU .. won, Michigan State, .. won,  Oklahoma, .. lost, & Stanford .. won .. so 3-6 in the bowl season for ND opponents) Bama beat 6 teams that went bowling ( Michigan, .. lost, LSU, .. lost, Ole Miss, .. won, Mississippi State, .. lost, Texas A&M .. won, Western Kentucky, .. lost .. so 2-4 in the bowl season for opponents Bama beat in 2012) The teams the Tide & the Irish beat had an identical winning percentage in the bowl season 2/6 = 33 % .. & .. 3/9 = 33%. These teams are very similar on defense … that Alabama has an edge on offense is clear .. a 10 points edge ..  is not … Sully’s CFP Says …. take the Irish & the 10 points …and if you do … say a prayer for Golson …as he, without question, is the X factor in this game!