Bowl History: This bowl was established in 2003 as the PlainsCapital Forth Worth Bowl. The game was played in Fort Worth, Texas from 2003 through 2009, it was then moved to SMU’s Campus (Gerald J. Ford Stadium) for the 2010 & 2011 games and has now moved back to to Fort Worth for the 2012 addition of the bowl. The game was moved from Amon G. Carter Stadium for those two years because of stadium renovations. The first game in the series was played on December 23, 2003 between Boise State & TCU … Boise won, 34-31. Last year’s game was played on December 30, 2011 … BYU beat Tulsa, 24-21! Conference tie-ins are Mountain West & Independents Army & Navy (if bowl eligible & available) and the bowl payout is 1.2 million!
Teams: Air Force: Conference Affiliation: Mountain West; Overall Record 6-6, Conference Record 5-3 …. vs …. Rice: Conference Affiliation: C-USA; Overall Record 6-6; Conference Record 4-4, Divisional Record 3-2 (West Division of C-USA)!
Bowl Location: Fort Worth, Texas @ Amon G. Carter Stadium! The stadium seats 32,000 and last year’s attendance @ the BYU /Tulsa game was 30,258 or 94.56% of capacity!
Day, Date, & Time: Saturday,12/29/2012 @ 10:45
Network: ESPN
Best Wins: Air Force: beat Nevada, 48-31, Rice: beat SMU, 36-14
Worst Losses: Air Force: lost to Army, 41-21 & Navy, 28-21 in OT; Rice: lost to Memphis, 14-10.
Common Opponents: Fresno State Rice beat FSU 43-10, while AF lost Fresno, 48-15
Las Vegas Hotsheet: Opened with Rice -1 and has moved to Air Force -2.5 with the dollar flow…
Offensive Team Data: Air Force: Total Yards, 430 YPG; Passing Yards, 123 YPG; Rushing Yards, 307 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 2.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 52%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 74% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 66%
Offensive Team Data: Rice: Total Yards, 421 YPG; Passing Yards, 220 YPG; Rushing Yards, 201 YPG; Scoring Average 32 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%
Defensive Team Data: Air Force: Total Yards, 402 YPG; Passing Yards, 204 YPG; Rushing Yards, 198 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 1.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%
Defensive Team Data: Rice: Total Yards, 441 YPG; Passing Yards, 249 YPG; Rushing Yards, 193 YPG; Scoring Average 31 PPG, Turnovers, 2.0 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%
Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will perform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take AF’s total yards on offense, add it to what Rice gives up on defense, … get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Rice’s total offense, add it to what Air Force gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed! That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:
Total Yards: Advantage: Air Force 436 to 412
Passing Yards: Advantage Rice 212 to 186
Rushing Yards: Advantage Air Force 250 to 200
Scoring: Advantage Rice 31 to 30
Turnovers: Advantage Rice 1.33 to 2.09
3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Rice 45.4% to 44.9%
Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Rice 87% to 78%
Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Air Force 69% to 64%
Individuals to Watch: Air Force: RB, Cody Getz has rushed for 1,213 yards on 191 carries for an average of 6.4 yards per carry & 9 TD’s! While QB, Connor Dietz passed for 1,127 8 TD’s, & 3 picks. Rice: QB Taylor McHargue has rushed and passed for 22 TD’s…. 11 running & 11 throwing! Also Sam McGuffie, a Michigan transfer to Rice, is an all-purpose back … who can run it, catch it and possesses both power & speed!
Sully Says: Air Force and Rice have played six times and the Falcons have won five. Their most recent meeting took plane in 1998, when both teams were members of the WAC. Air Force was 2nd in the country in rushing offense and can effectively throw to keep defenses honest … at least … somewhat honest. This bowl is a military event and the services academies take that to heart … and while they always play hard .. they do so with a little more of an edge in this bowl! That said, Rice needed to win their last four games to become bowl eligible … they got that done, including an impressive win over SMU, 36-14, …. SMU just hammered Fresno State, 43-10 (Fresno beat Air Force, 48-15) in their bowl game. While AF lost two of their last three games to end their season. Sully’s CFP Says… AF played 10 straight weeks without a bye (Sept 22 through Nov 24)… coupled with military duties at the Academy … the Falcons looked like a weary team down the stretch! Rested and motivated in the Armed Forces Bowl … Air Forces wins and covers the 2.5!
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