Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl 2013 MTSU vs Navy

Bowl History: This bowl was established in 2003 as the PlainsCapital Forth Worth Bowl. The game was played in Fort Worth, Texas from 2003 through 2009, it was then moved to SMU’s Campus (Gerald J. Ford Stadium) for the 2010 & 2011 games and has now moved back to to Fort Worth for the 2012 addition of the bowl. The game was moved from Amon G.  Carter Stadium for those two years because of stadium renovations. The first game in the series was played on December 23, 2003 between Boise State & TCU … Boise won, 34-31. Last year’s game was played on December 29, 2012 … Rice beat Air Force, 33-14! Conference tie-ins are Mountain West & Independents Army & Navy (if bowl eligible & available) and the bowl payout is 1.2 million!

Teams: Navy: Conference Affiliation: Independent; Overall Record 8-4; Middle Tennessee:  Conference Affiliation: C-USA; Overall Record 8-4; Conference Record 6-2, Divisional Record 5-1 (East Division of C-USA)!

Bowl Location: Fort Worth, Texas @ Amon G. Carter Stadium! The stadium seats 32,000 and last year’s attendance @ the Rice /Air Force game was 40,750 and increase of 10,496 over last year’s tilt!!

Day, Date & Time: Monday, 12/30/2013 @ 10:45 a.n. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): MTSU beat Marshall, 51-49; Navy: beat Pitt, 24-21

Worst Losses: MTSU: lost to North Texas 34-7, Navy lost to Duke, 35-7

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Navy -6.5

Offensive Team Data: Navy ; Total Yards,  415 YPG; Passing Yards,  92 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  324 YPG; Scoring Average,  34 PPG, Turnovers,  0.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 50.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 91% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73%

Offensive Team Data: MTSU ; Total Yards,  415 YPG; Passing Yards, 207 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 207 YPG; Scoring Average  31 PPG, Turnovers,  1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.3 %; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 65% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Defensive Team Data: Navy ; Total Yards,  402 YPG; Passing Yards,  216 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  186 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: MTSU ; Total Yards,  405 YPG; Passing Yards,  219 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  186 YPG; Scoring Average,  27 PPG, Turnovers,  2.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take MTSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what Navy gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Navy’s total offense, add it to what Middle Tennessee gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Navy…. 410 to 409

Passing Yards: Advantage, MTSU …. 212 to 156

Rushing Yards: Advantage, Navy…. 255 to 197

Scoring: Advantage, .Navy…. 31 to 29

Turnovers: Advantage, .Navy… 1.63 to 1.67

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Navy…. 48.9% to 47.1%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Navy….  85% to 72%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Navy. … 68% to 64%

Individuals to Watch: Navy:  QB Keenan Reynolds, Rushing yards 1260 and 29 TD’s  & passing yards 1038 & 6 TD’s; MTSU: QB Logan Kilgore, 2289 passing yards, 16 TD’s & 11 INT’s.

Sully Says: Navy wins this game!