Wisconsin 6-0 @ Michigan State 6-1: These teams have played 4 of the past 5 years, including 4 straight meetings. In 07, Wisconsin outscored MSU, 37-34, 1n 08, the Spartans survived the Badgers, 25-24, in 09, State’s rally fell short, 38-30 defeat, & last year, The Spartans handed the Badgers their only regular season loss, 34-24. The thing to note here, is the home team has won each of the last four games and this week’s showdown is in East Lansing.
Wisconsin has beaten, @ home, (1-5) UNLV 51-17, (1-5) Oregon State, 35-0, an FCS team (63 scholarships vs FBS 85) South Dakota 59-10 & (5-1) Nebraska 48-17. While the Badgers have played two road games, only one of them has been on the other teams home field, (1-6) Indiana’s, a 59-7 beat down of the Hoosiers. The other road game was played @ Chicago’s Soldier Field, where the Badgers whipped (4-3) Northern Illinois, 49-7. Michigan State (Michigan’s little brother, who has gotten older recently) has also played and won, 4 games at home; FCS’ Youngstown State, Jimmy Tressel’s old team, 28-6, (0-6) Florida Atlantic, 44-0, (2-5) Central Michigan, 45-7, & (6-1) Michigan, 28-14. The Spartans have marched into two historic and revered college venues for their road games, the Horseshoe & the Blarney Stone, (actual Lia Fail, translated from Irish to English, means… Fatal Stone). So those dopes, who are traveling to Ireland to kiss the Blarney Stone, thinking they will receive “the gift of eloquence in speech” are really engaging in the Kiss of Death! In a football sense, it certainly was for the Spartans, as it was the site of their only defeat, a 31-13 popping by the (4-2) Irish. State more than made up for this misstep via their outstanding defensive performance at and against (4-3) OSU, a 10-7 gem.
Let’s take a peek at these two Big Ten heavy weights statistically. Michigan State enters the contest ranked 2nd in the country (Alabama’s 1st) in Total Defense, giving up 186.8 yards per game, while the Badgers are 7th in the nation, allowing 268 YPG. In scoring Defense, Wisconsin is 3rd best in the land, surrendering 9.7 point per game, with the Spartans right behind, ranked 4th and permitting 10.8 PPG. When you look at these teams ability to get off the field on 3rd down, the Spartans are stopping their opponents 73% of the time, while the Badgers are successful, to the tune of 68%, in getting their offense back on the turf. Finally, defense in the Red Zone, the Badgers have had 13 drives into this area of the field and allowed 9 scores, 6 TD’s (3 pass 3 rush) & 3 FG’s. Meanwhile, the Spartans have allowed 7 drives into the Red Zone and have permitted 5 scores, 4 TD’s (2 pass 2 rush) & 1 FG. Wisconsin has allowed more drives into the Red Zone, but has been more successful in getting stops or to limiting teams to FG’s.
Alright…Let’s go to the other side of the ball. In Total Offense, Wisconsin ranks 8th nationally, grinding out 523.2 yards per game, while the Spartans are 66th best in the country, averaging 387.2 YPG. In Scoring Offense, Wisconsin leads the nation, averaging, a whopping, 50.2 points per game, the Spartans are rated 65th best in the country, putting up 28.0 PPG. In 3rd down conversions, once again, Wisconsin leads the land, 71 attempts, 44 conversions, and a 60% success rate. State has struggled on 3rd down, 85 attempts and 32 conversions, keeping the offense on the field a mere 38 percent of the time, and resulting, in a national rank of 83rd. In considering Red Zone Offense, yet again, here comes Wisconsin, ranked 5th best in America. The Badgers have been in the Red Zone 33 times, resulting in 32 scores, and a remarkable 29 have been for TD’s. Michigan State is rated as the 91st best team in the land when it enters the Red Zone. The Spartans have been in this area of the field 28 times resulting in 21 scores, of which, 8 have been FG’s.
There can be no question, but that Wisconsin has enjoyed more statistical success on the offensive side of the ball. However, there is always that pesky question of… who have they played? In my mind, again, no question, State has played the superior schedule, ND & Ohio State on the road and, at the time, an undefeated Michigan, at home. The Badgers have played and pounded, one might add, a very good Nebraska @ home. So one could argue Michigan State’s offensive numbers are more related to the quality of their opposition, as opposed to an offensive deficiency, when compared to the Badgers.
Here are some thoughts to consider, as game time approaches! The Badgers are the best team the Spartans have faced, or may face, this year. Michigan State is undefeated at home and have beaten Wisconsin, the last two times the Badgers have traveled to Spartan Stadium. The size of the Badger Offense Line and Wisconsin’s time of position in the 1st half.
I like the Spartans, but they have no answer for Russell Wilson! Unlike Denard Robinson, Wilson is a duel threat and will not take the pounding that Robinson endured last week. Wisconsin offensive line and their backs will do the pounding… Wisconsin 35 Michigan State 17
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