By the Recruiting Numbers: who wins the Big Ten East, West and Outright

The Big Ten has 4 teams that recruit in the top 25, Ohio State 2, Penn State 12, Michigan 18, Nebraska 23, and with Michigan State just outside @ 26! That said, you have seven (Maryland is 33rd of the 66 programs assessed) B-10 programs that are in the lower half of the Power 5 recruiting wars. Wisconsin is at 36, followed by Iowa (43), Minnesota (51), Northwestern (52), Indiana (53), Rutgers (57), Illinois (58) and Purdue @ 62! It is no wonder that the NW Coach, Pat Fitzgerald, likes to say that the Northwestern football experience is developmental at its heart. They simply do not land the 4 and 5 star recruits that the SEC attracks year after year. In fact, the SEC has 10 teams in the top 25 (40%) and all but 2 teams ( Missouri at 41 and Vanderbilt @ 50) that are in the upper half, a 33 or better listing!

So let’s see what happened last year in the B-10 divisions and what the recruiting numbers predict for 2018! Remember these predictions are based on rosters, not starters!

2017 East Division Standings / What the Recruiting Numbers Foretell

1. Ohio State 8-1 ……………………. 1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State 7-2 ……………… 2. Penn State
3. Penn State 7-2 ……………………. 3. Michigan
4. Michigan 5-4 ……………………… 4. Michigan State
5. Rutgers 3-6 ………………………… 5. Maryland
6. Maryland 2-7 ……………………… 6. Indiana
7. Indiana 2-7 …………………………. 7. Rutgers

Points of Interest … Remember these comments are based on recruiting only, Rosters!  …Not player development, coaching, returning starters, and other variables!

• Ohio State did exactly what was predicted it would do based on its roster, 1st place in the East Division!
• Michigan State, once again overachieved under Mark Dantonio, beating PSU, 27-24 and Michigan, 14-10.
• PSU’s lost 2 close games, one to OSU, 39-38, the numbers say they should have lost and the second to MSU, 27-24, a game the Roster Wars say the should have won.
• Michigan should have finished 7-2 in the B-10, not 5-4!  Their losses to MSU, 14-10 and Wisconsin 24-10 should not have happened, while losses to OSU and PSU were within the numbers!
• Rutgers overachieved! What? That statement is true by the numbers, the Scarlet Knights should not have beaten Maryland, a 31-24 win, their wins over Illinois, 35-24 and Purdue, 14-12, were consistent with their respective rosters and the luck of the cross divisional draws! They should have been 2-7 not 3-6!
• Maryland underachieved. They should have beaten, by their recruiting numbers, Wisconsin, lost 38-13, Northwestern, lost 37-21, & Rutgers, lost 24-31. Maryland, by their roster, should have been 5-4 in B-10 play … not 2-7!
• Indiana slightly underachieved, they did exactly what their roster said they should have done, beating Illinois, 24-14 and Rutgers, 41-0. Their only miss step was @ Purdue, a 31-24 loss that their recruiting rank says they should have won!

 2017 East Division Standings / What the Recruiting Numbers Foretell

1. Wisconsin 9-0 ……………………. 1. Nebraska
2. Northwestern 7-2 ……………… 2. Wisconsin
3. Iowa 4-5 …………………………… 3. Iowa
4. Purdue 4-5 ………………………    4. Minnesota
5. Nebraska 3-6 …………………….. 5. Northwestern
6. Minnesota 2-7 …………………… 6. Illinois
7. Illinois 0-9 …………………………. 7. Purdue

Points of Interest … Remember these comments are based on recruiting only, Rosters!  …Not player development, coaching, returning starters, and other variables

• Wisconsin, per usual, overachieved, they are the 36 best recruiting program in the land, 7 best in their own conference (in the East Division of the B-10, 5 programs recruit better than the Badgers: OSU (2), PSU (12), Michigan (18), MSU (27) and Maryland (33) & in their own West Division, Nebraska recruits better @ 23) and yet Bucky was 6 points away (27-21 loss to the Bucks in the B-10 Championship Game) from a final 4 spot in the CFP! UW should have been, by their roster (recruiting rank) 6-3 (should have lost to Nebraska, won 38-17, to Michigan; won 24-10 & to Maryland; won 38-13)… not 9-0!
• Northwestern another program that regularly overachieves. The ‘Cats’ finished 7-2 in B-10 play, their roster says they should have been 2-7! NW should have lost to Maryland, they won, 37-21; to Iowa, they won, 17-10 in OT; To MSU; they won, 39-31, in 3 OTs; to Nebraska, they won 31-24 in OT; & to Minnesota, they won, 39-0. The only teams that Northwestern played that they recruit better than, in conference play, were Illinois (won 42-7) & Purdue, (won 23-13). Impressive!
• Iowa beat two teams in the B-10 that their Roster said they should not have beaten, OSU, 55-24, & Nebraska, 56-14 (and those scores?), and then lost to three, that their roster says the should have won, Wisconsin, 38-14; Northwestern, 17-10 in OT and Purdue, 24-15! After that, their season was according to Hoyle, beating beating Illinois & Minnesota and losing to PSU & MSU! Iowa finished with a 4-5 record, just as the recruiting predicted, yet how they got there, well, that was quite a different story!
• Purdue, by the recruiting numbers should have finished their 2017 season at 0-9! Their 4-5 record, may have been the most unexpected result in B-10 play last year! The Boilers beat Minnesota, 31-17; Illinois, 29-10; Iowa, 24-15; & Indiana, 31-24. That said, they could have been 7-2, losing to Nebraska, 25-24, Rutgers, 14-12, & Wisconsin 17-9! What Purdue accomplished in 2017 rivaled Wisconsin achievements, when you consider where they started and how they finished!
• Nebraska, by the recruiting numbers, should have won the West Division at 7-2, losing to only, OSU, which they  did, 56-14 & PSU, again, which they did, 56-44! The simple fact is they recruit better than very team in the West Division of the B-10! Enter Scott Frost!
• Minnesota needs to pick up the pace on “rowing the Boat.” They beat one team that their roster said they would not beat, Nebraska, 54-21 and lost to two that that they should have beaten, Northwestern, 39-0 and Purdue, 31-17! The Gophers finished 2-7 in 2017, while their recruiting numbers said they should have finished 3-6!
• Illinois underachieved while underachieving; their roster says they should have gone 1-8 in B-10 play and yet they managed to lose to the one team that they have a better roster than, Purdue, 29-10. The only bright spot for the Illini is they are recruiting better!

So it is OSU out of the East and the Badgers out of the West … By the Recruiting Numbers, it will Ohio State reigning as B-10 champs when the quiet returns!