CFP: Who is in the Committee’s Top 25; yet out of the playoff!

This Top 25 ranking is really window dressing!

Does anyone believe that a three (3) loss team like Wisconsin or Mississippi State have even a remote chance of getting an invite? Bucky Badger can still win the the West Division (without help), beat who shows from the East Division in the B-10 Championship Game, and still not have a snowballs’ chance in Hades of getting into the playoff with three losses!

For Mississippi State to win the West Division, they would need Bama to lose their remaining 3 games, finish with 4 losses and a host of other things to occur, … not happening! Even if Mississippi State got to the SEC Championship and won!!!; it would not change the fact that a three lost is not going to the “Small Dance”!

So we can eliminate Wisconsin & Mississippi State from the mix, we now have a Top 23 not a Top 25!

In the history of the CFP, a team with 2 losses has ever been offered a seat at the Playoff Table! Going into Week Ten, we have 6 undefeated teams (Georgia, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, and an unranked, UTSA) and eight (8), one (1) loss teams (Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Baylor, & San Diego State). The math is clear that 4 (@ a minimum) of the 14 remaining teams will finish undefeated or with one loss!

Giving that a team with 2 losses has never been welcomed to the playoffs, we can eliminate those 10 teams burdened with two (2) losses! This number includes the following teams: Pitt, Fresno State, Iowa, Minnesota, NC State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, BYU, Texas A&M, & Auburn!

The twist here with the 2 loss teams, is clearly, Auburn! The Tigers can win the SEC West, without any help, just win baby! Auburn’s only loss in the SEC is a cross divisional game, with Georgia, 34-10!

They have beaten Ole Miss, 31-20, LSU, 24-19, & Arkansas, 38-23, their remaining games are @ Texas A&M, Mississippi State, @ South Carolina, & Alabama. This Saturday’s game at College Station, (Auburn has played there four (4) times since A&M has been in the SEC and won all four) could have far reaching consequences to the history of the CFP! If Auburn were to win out, they will have beaten, Texas A&M, Alabama & Georgia in a 5 week period, won the SEC, and have the best resume in college football heading into the post season! So could Auburn be the 1st, two (2) loss team to make the cut?

That aside, it is more likely that all 10 teams, with 2 losses, are out of the CFP!

Our Top 25 is now a Top 13! There are currently eight (8) teams with one blemish, so let’s start with the lowest ranked, one (1) loss team, #24 San Diego State! The Aztecs lost for the 1st time last week to Fresno State, 30-20. That said, they have taken down 2 Power 5 teams, Arizona, 38-14 & Utah, 33-31 in 3 OT’s. Yet, close wins over San Jose State, 19-13 & Air Force, 20-14 leave their resume lacking and simply do not have the juice for a CFP berth!

#12 Baylor’s (7-1) only loss is to another one (1) loss team, Oklahoma State, 24-14. Their best win is against #15 BYU, 38-24 and do host Oklahoma on Nov. 13th. A win over OU would be big , however, not enough, without major Chaos breaking out above them! The Bears, if not out, are on life support!

#11 Oklahoma State (7-1) lost to Iowa State, 24-21, on Oct. 23 in Ames, Iowa! The Cowboys best win is/was against Baylor, 24-14 and they do play OU on the last Saturday of the season. If they were to beat OU on Nov. 27 and then beat them again, in the B-12 Championship Game, they would go from critical to serious in medical jargon, yet, in no way would they control their own fate in reaching the CFP!

#10 Notre Dame (7-1) as much as the Irish are helping Cincinnati, the Bearcats, are hurting Notre Dame, to a much greater extent. Cincy beat ND, 24-13, on Oct. 2nd and for all intent and purpose, eliminated the Irish from the CFP. “Get Smart” kind of KAOS (chaos) would be required for ND to reach its 3rd CFP in 4 years. That said, they can win 12 games this season, if they do so, then 2021 may very well be Coach Kelly & his staff’s best coaching job in that time frame (2018/2021)!

#7 Michigan (7-1) is the first one (1) loss team that has a very real chance to reach the CFP! The Wolverines best win, in 2021, is against Wisconsin, 38-17, the Badgers are playing for a the West Division championship, which they will get if they win out and a spot in Indy for the B-10 Championship! UM closes out the season vs 3 teams that have winning records, @ Penn State, Maryland, & Ohio State (minus IU, 2-6, who they play on Saturday). If the Wolves win out, they will be the champions of the B-10 (the 2nd best conference in 2021 behind only the SEC) with a record of 12-1! I think their in, if win out!

#5 Ohio State (7-1) if the Bucks were to win out, they would still have one major problem, Oregon! The Ducks beat the Bucks, 35-28, @ the Horse Shoe, on Sept. 11th, & did so without their best player, Kayvon Thibodeaux. OSU best win in 2021 is against PSU, 33-24, on Oct. 30th! The Buckeyes’ schedule will help them, they play Michigan State (currently 8-0) on Nov. 20 & travel to Michigan & the Big House to take on the 7-1 Wolverines! This will be an interesting scenario; if Michigan were to win out, in my opinion, they would be in a stronger position than Ohio State, to make the CFP! In that, like Oregon, they would have beaten the Bucks and the B-10 is better league than the PAC 12!

#3 Oregon’s (7-1) best win has put then in a similar situation to Cincinnati’s win over ND. They traveled across the country, took on one of the college football top rosters (4th to exact) and got it done! If the Ducks & Bucks finish with an identical 12-1 record, how significant will the head to head be for the committee? If I were an Oregon fan, I would cheer for OSU, to beat an unbeaten MSU and a once beaten Michigan. All things being relatively equal, head to head has to matter or why play the games? Given the power of the B-10, if MSU or Michigan wins the conference championship and it comes down to one of those teams or the Ducks, in my opinion, Oregon is gone! If it is OSU, as strange as it may sound, that gives Oregon their best shot!

#2 Alabama, this is where the fun really begins and chaos will reign supreme, if the Tide wins the SEC! It is a foregone conclusion that the SEC champ is in the CFP! So can/could you really keep Georgia, who is widely regarded as, far and away, college football’s best team … out of the playoff? I think not! Alabama wins out … chaos, if UGA wins … Bama is a gone Gosling!

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the undefeated teams!