Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Bowl History: This Bowl began in 1997, (formally known as the Humanitarian Bowl) Conference tie-ins … WAC Champ vs a team from the MAC. Cincinnati beat Utah State in the Bowl’s inaugural game, 35-19, while the defending champion from Ohio University, also, beat Utah State, 24-23, in 2011. Bowl Payout … $750,000.00 to both teams!

Teams: Toledo; Regular Season 9-3 / MAC Conference Record 6-2 (tied for 2nd in the East Division of the MAC) vs Utah State; Regular Season Record 10-2 / WAC Conference Record 6-0 (WAC Champion)

Bowl Location: The game is played annually in Boise, Idaho @ Bronco Stadium on the campus of Boise State University! Stadium capacity is 33,500 … Highest attandence, 2002, 30,446 … Boise state beat Iowa State, 34-16… Lowest attandance, 1997, 16,289, when, as mentioned, Cincinnati beat Utah State, 35-19!

Day, Date, & Time: Saturday, 12/15/12, 3:30 CST

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: Utah State: Beat Utah, 27-24 in OT, pounded a 10-2 San Jose State, 49-27, and survived a 9-3 Louisiana Tech, 48-41 in OT! Toledo Beat an undefeated Cincinnati (at the time the game was played) 29-23.

Worst Losses: Utah State: Wisconsin, 16-14, missed a short FG as time expired … outplayed the Badgers and should have won the game! Toledo: Ball State, 34-27 @ home … looking pass the Cardinals to their showdown with Northern Illinois?

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet: Utah State -10 over Toledo! Game opened at Utah State -8  moved to 10 based on dollar flow…

Offensive Team Data: Utah State: Total Yards, 461 YPG; Passing Yards, 268 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 193 YPG; Scoring Average 34 PPG, Turnovers, 1.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: Toledo: Total Yards, 456 YPG; Passing Yards, 259 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 197 YPG; Scoring Average 33 PPG, Turnovers, 1.50 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Defensive Team Data: Utah State: Total Yards, 323 YPG; Passing Yards, 211 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 111 YPG; Scoring Average 15 PPG, Turnovers, 1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 64% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 33% 

Defensive Team Data: Toledo: Total Yards, 463 YPG; Passing Yards, 295 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 168 YPG; Scoring Average 27 PPG, Turnovers, 2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 67% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 48% 

Sully’s Game: Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Utah State’s total yards on offense, add it to what Toledo gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Toledo’s total offense, add it to what Utah State gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards: Advantage: Utah State 462-390

Passing Yards: Advantage: Utah State 282-235 

Rushing Yards: Advantage: Utah State 181-154

Scoring: Advantage: Utah State 31-24 

Turnovers: Advantage: Toledo 1.50-1.83 

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: Utah State 43%-38% 

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: Utah State 75%-73%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: Utah State 57%-41%

Individuals to Watch: Toledo’s Wide Receiver, Bernard Reedy 82 catches for 1057 yards and 6 TDs. He averages 6.78 catches per game with a 12.82 average per catch and 87.58 total yards per game! Utah State counters with their outstanding running back, Kerwynn Williams, who has rushed for 1277 yards this season and scored 12 TDs. Williams averages an impressive 6.39 yards per carry and averages 106.42 rushing yards per game!

Sully Says: The Mac is the strongest it has been in years, while the WAC is dissolving after this year, 2012! Several long time members bolted for the Mountain West Conference the past two years and the conference was going to lose more members to the Sun Belt Conference next year. As a result, league officials (school officials, presidents, & AD) determined that to try to continue in these circumstance made little to no sense. That said, giving the lack of strength in the WAC it is hard to determine exactly how good Utah State (10-2), San Jose State (10-2) & Louisiana Tech (9-3) actually are this season! However, when one looks outside the WAC, Utah State two losses are by a total of 5 points, Wisconsin (Big Ten Rose Bowl Rep), 16-14 & BYU (Who battled ND, a BCS National Champion finalists, late into the 4th quarter before falling 17-14) , 6-3 … Utah State has an impressive resume! The simple truth is.. Utah State is a solid to very good football team and will win this game but not cover the 10 point spread!