Big East: Not really a big game in the Big East this weekend; 4-1 South Florida takes on a 2-4 U-Conn @ Storrs CT and a 4-1 Cincinnati welcomes a 2-3 Louisville to Nippert Stadium. Two non-conference tilts, 3-3 Pitt hosts a 2-3 Utah @ Heinz Field & 4-1 Rutgers has invited a 3-2 Navy to their homecoming. Meanwhile, a 5-1 West Virginia and 4-2 Syracuse have bye weeks, these same teams will meet at the Carrier Dome next Saturday, Oct. 22nd. So, as you can see, 2 conference teams with 4-1 records face squads with losing slates, two teams are idle, and then 2 non-conference contests. So on the surface, not too much to get fired up about this week.
However, the Big East has produced 2 surprises this season, one is Cincinnati and the other is Rutgers. Cincinnati’s lone loss is to Tennessee, a 45-25 whipping in the second week of season. Since then, they have righted the ship and are currently on a 3 game winning streak; which includes a 27-0 blanking of defending MAC champ, Miami of Ohio and a 44-14 blasting of an ACC team, North Carolina State. I saw the Bearcat’s play NC State and they looked like a team that is quite capable of making some noise in the Big East this season. Their schedule, however, is not favorable, as they have to travel to South Florida, Pitt, Rutgers, & Syracuse. Rutgers is the other team who is turning some heads, their lone loss was @ North Carolina, 24-22 and are riding a wave of three straight wins. Two of the wins are against conference opponents, Syracuse 19-16 and Pittsburgh 34-10. Their schedule, unlike Cincy’s, sets up nicely for the Scarlet Knights, as they get West Virginia, South Florida, & Cincinnati all @ home.
Given that, let’s take a look at the Rutgers game this week against Navy. These teams have met three times in the past five years; in 06, Rutgers shutout the Midshipmen, 34-0, in 07, Rutgers won again, 41-24, and in their last meeting, 08, Navy won 23-21. The teams have not played the past two seasons.
Rutgers is a 4 point favorite, the Knights are averaging 32.2 PPG (points per game), while surrendering a meager 15.2; Navy counters, by allowing 30.6 PPG (inflated by a 63 to 35 beat down, by Southern Miss, last weekend) and scoring to the tune of 34.0. Per usual, Navy is among the leaders nationally running the ball, this year they rank 1st in the country @ 366.0 YPG (yards per game), while Rutgers is carrying the rock for 79.8 YPG (that rock must be heavy). Rutgers is currently ranked 115 of the 120 teams in the FBS running the ball. Looks like a no-brainer, the #1 ranked rushing team in the country vs the 115th, but in Lee Corso’s words, “not so fast my friend”, let’s take a peek at the pass. Rutgers is averaging 235.0 YPG passing the ball, while Navy is tossing the rock for 97.4 YPG (must be a heavy rock). Rutgers is ranked 57th in average yards passing per game in the country, while Navy QB is throwing curves….. ranked 118th of 120. Clearly, the field is leveling as both pass and rush are considered in predetermining a winner.
Having witnessed ND trying to defend Navy’s triple option the past couple of years, Chris Berman’s, rumblin, stumblin, bumblin comes to mind, as I watched those “Irish Dopes” miss tackles, miss assignments and bouncing off Charlie as they overran the pitch. I have at least 27 years of Purgatory to work off for inappropriate language. My afterlife aside, I do believe the key to beating Navy is getting off the field on 3rd down. While vacating the field on 3rd down is always a factor in winning, it is an absolute with the Midshipmen. So… how has Rutgers done on 3rd down defense? Rutgers allows third down conversions at the rate 32.8; meaning 67.2% of the time they are getting their offense back on the field. I believe this is why Rutgers wins this game! Rutgers 38-24
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