Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Bowl History: The Bowl was established in 2006, the conference tie ins are … the PAC 12 & Mountain West … first game was played December 23, 2006… San Jose State beat New Mexico, 20-12 and last year’s game was won by Temple, who beat Wyoming, 37-15! Prior to 2011, the Bowl was simply known as the the New Mexico Bowl. Last year, 2011, Gildan (Clothing Manufacturer) became the official sponsor and thus the official name of the bowl …. Gildan New Mexico Bowl! The game is one of the earlist played bowls, always scheduled before Christmas. The Payout for each team is $750,000.00!

Teams: Arizona, Conference, PAC 12, Overall Record 7-5  Conference Record 4-5 ; Nevada, Conference, Mountain West, Overall Record 7-5,  Conference Record 4-4

Bowl Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico. The Bowl is played @ University Stadium (Capacity 39,224 … Highest Attendance 2006 … 34,111 …. Lowest Attandance …. 2008 …. 24,735) on the campus of the University of New Mexico.

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, 12/15/12, & 12:00 P.M. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Arizona: Beat Oklahoma State, 59-38 & USC, 39-36; Nevada: @ California 31-24

Worst Losses: Arizona:  Oregon, 49-0 & UCLA 66-10; Nevada: South Florida, 32-31 & Air Force 48-31

Common Opponents: None!

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: The game opened with Arizona giving Nevada 8 points and based on where the dollars have gone the line has moved to 9.5!

Offensive Team Data: Arizona; Total Yards, 522 YPG; Passing Yards, 292 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 230 YPG; Scoring Average 37 PPG, Turnovers, 2.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 60%

Offensive Team Data: Nevada; Total Yards, 503 YPG; Passing Yards, 243 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 260 YPG; Scoring Average 37 PPG, Turnovers, 1.50 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 53.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: Arizona; Total Yards, 480 YPG; Passing Yards, 290 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 190 YPG; Scoring Average 34 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: Nevada; Total Yards, 431 YPG; Passing Yards, 218 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 213 YPG; Scoring Average 33 PPG, Turnovers, 1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage Nevada, 492 to 477….

Passing Yards: Advantage Nevada, 267 t0 255….

Rushing Yards: Advantage Nevada, 225 to 222….

Scoring: Advantage Nevada, 36 to 35….

Turnovers: Advantage Arizona, 1.66 to 1.71

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Nevada, 48% to 46%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage Nevada, 82% to 81%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage Nevada, 70% to 61%

Individuals to Watch: Arizona: Ka’Deem Carey, the nations leading rusher; 1757 total yards, game average 146 rushing yards & yards per carry 6.39! Nevada: Stefphon Jefferson, the nation’s second leading rusher, 1703 total yards, 142 yards per game, & 4.99 yards per carry(Cool feature for the Gilden New Mexico Bowl …. top two rushers in the country on display)

Sully Says: Just not buying Nevada’s statistical dominance on the Sully’s College Football Page Game Simulator. As we always state; the Game Simulator provides important information on how each team’s numbers look when compared with one another. That said they should never be viewed in isolation! While the GS is an important peice of how Sully’s CFP determines a winner … the numbers must be considered along with other factors: Strength of the relative conferences, non conference opponents, home and away record, Quality wins / bad losses … etc…  Nevada plays in the Mountain West … Three teams tied at 7-1 for the Conference Championship ….  & Nevada lost to all three …. San Diego State (39-38 in OT); Fresno State (52-36), Boise State (27-21)!   The Wolf Pack also lost to Air Force, 48-31! No question ….  the PAC 12 is the better league and Arizona’s best wins are more impressive than Nevada’s (Oklahoma State & USC vs California, who is not bowl eligible and whose coach was fired) Neither one of these teams seem to be able to or are interested in playing much defense … but both teams can ring it up on offense! Sully’s CFP likes Arizona to win but not cover at 9 1/2!