Bowl History: This bowl was established in 2003 as the Plains Capital Forth Worth Bowl. The game was played in Fort Worth, Texas from 2003 through 2009, it was then moved to SMU’s Campus (Gerald J. Ford Stadium) for the 2010 & 2011 games and has now moved back to to Fort Worth for the 2012 addition of the bowl. The game was moved from Amon G. Carter Stadium for those two years because of stadium renovations. The first game in the series was played on December 23, 2003 between Boise State & TCU … Boise won, 34-31. Originally Alltel was to assume the title sponsorship and naming rights to the game beginning in 2014, which would have been titled the Alltel Wireless Bowl to promote its mobile division, but the deal fell through. Instead, Lockheed Martin became the game’s sponsor. The company has a major presence in the Dallas-Fort Worth : the company’s Lockheed Martin Aeronautics division is based in Fort Worth while its Lockheed Martin, Missles and Fire Control division is based in nearby Grand Prairie Texas. Conference tie-ins are Mountain West & Independents Army & Navy (if bowl eligible & available) and the bowl payout is 1.2 million!
Teams: Louisiana Tech 8-5 (C-USA) vs Navy 9-4 (AAC)
Bowl Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Day, Date & Time: Friday, December 23, 2016, 3:30 CST
Network: ESPN
Best Win(s): Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky, 55-52; Navy beat Houston, 46-40, Memphis, 42-28, & ND 28-27
Worst Losses: Louisiana Tech lost to Texas Tech (5-7), 59-45; Navy’s lost to Army, 21-17
Common Opponents: None
Vegas Hotsheets Favorite: Navy -5
Offensive Team Data: Louisiana Tech ; Total Yards, 515 YPG; Passing Yards, 360 YPG; Rushing Yards, 156 YPG; Scoring Average, 44 PPG, Turnovers, 1.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 49%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 84% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%
Offensive Team Data: Navy ; Total Yards, 437 YPG; Passing Yards, 126 YPG; Rushing Yards, 312 YPG; Scoring Average 37 PPG, Turnovers, 1.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 54.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 89% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 82%
Defensive Team Data: Louisiana Tech ; Total Yards, 418 YPG; Passing Yards, 284 YPG; Rushing Yards, 134 YPG; Scoring Average, 33 PPG, Turnovers, 1.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 44.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 72%
Defensive Team Data: Navy ; Total Yards, 429 YPG; Passing Yards, 242 YPG; Rushing Yards, 187 YPG; Scoring Average, 30 PPG, Turnovers, 1.31 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 52.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 63%
Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Arizona’s total yards on offense, add it to what Nevada gives up on defense, … get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Nevada’s total offense, add it to what Arizona gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2 to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed! That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:
Total Yards Advantage: Louisiana Tech 472 to 427.5
Passing Yards: Advantage: Louisiana Tech 301 to 205
Rushing Yards Advantage: Navy 223 to 171.5, ….
Scoring: Advantage: Louisiana Tech 37 to 35
Turnovers Advantage: Navy 1.115 to 1.27
3rd Down Conversions Advantage: Louisiana Tech 50.8 to 49.7
Red Zone All Scores Advantage: Navy 89.5 to 88
Red Zone TD’s Only Advantage: Navy 77 to 64
Game Simulator Says: A 4 to 4 Statistical Tie; Navy does not only not cover the 5, it loses the game outright, 37-35
Individuals to Watch: Louisiana Tech: WRs Trent Taylor 10 TD’s, 120.8 YPG & Carlos Henderson 17 TD’s & 117.2 YPG; Navy: QB Will Worth leads the country in TD’s scored 25, but he is out for the bowl game and back up Zach Abey has struggled in both the losses to Temple & Army.
Sully Says: Navy allows 242.5 passing yards a game (80th in the country) & Louisiana Tech has the 3rd best passing game in the Nation (359.8 YPG) Navy has the 4th best run game in the land, (310.9 YPG), while La Tech has the 30 best run D in the country (134.4 YPG). Navy, without its QB, Will Worth, will continue to struggle, take the 5 points and La Tech!
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