PAC 12 and Counting

I remember when they were the PAC 8, let alone the PAC 10, and now the PAC 12. Unlike the Big 12 (10 teams) or the Big Ten (12 teams) the number of teams and league name / number  identification seen to matter out west. I have suggested that the Big 12 may have an interest in Boise State & BYU to get their membership back to 12.  I wonder if behind closed doors, the PAC 12 is not considering those same teams and going the SEC route to 14 teams. College football has entered an interesting time where change is the constant.

The PAC 12 is divided into the North & South Divisions. The North Division hosts Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, & California, while the South Division consists of Colorado, Utah, Southern Cal, UCLA, Arizona, & Arizona State.

The North Division

Oregon: Coach Chip Kelly has it going 0n in tree hugging country. The Ducks under his leadership have become one of the best programs in the country. In 2010, Oregon played Auburn for the national championship. Then, in 2011, they played in the biggest hyped game in the regular season, an opening  tilt against LSU. Later that same season they won the  Rose Bowl, beating an outstanding Wisconsin team!  Prior to Kelly, they were not even in the conversation. Oregon is all about speed, De’Anthony Thomas (RB) and Rahsaan Vaughn (WR) are two guys that should have hello on the front of their jersey and goodbye on the back, given the quickness and speed they possess. Look for Marcus Mariota to win the QB battle with Bryan Bennett, this due to the unexpected early departure of Darron Thomas to the NFL draft. Defensively, the Ducks have their best defensive line in Kelly’s tenure, led by DE Dion Jordan and DT Taylor Hart.  The Ducks have talent, depth, experience and speed at the linebacker & secondary positions. Prediction: First

Oregon State: I know I am pretty much alone picking the Beavers to finish second, yet, I think I am right for the following reasons: 1) 15 starters return, including QB, Sean Mannion, 6’5” & 215 (passed for 3,328 yards & 64.5 completion rate in 2011) ; 2) Mike Riley is an excellent coach and needs to have a good season; 3) the team is hungry for success. RB, Malcolm Agnew and WR, Markus Wheaton should help to improve the running & passing games respectively, while the O-line will improve its numbers from a year ago. Defensively, OSU will be better on all three levels, D-line,  LB, & DB. That said, like the O-line, they were really bad a year ago, so the improvement is relative. The key is the offense, they must cut back on turnovers, 2.58 per game, which put their weak defense on short fields. If they do that and improve their scoring average from 22 in 2011 to say 28 in 2012, they have a shot to be the most improved team in the PAC 12!  Prediction: Second 

Stanford: Andrew Luck is gone and the parties around the PAC 12 campus’ lasted well into the night knowing “that guy” was headed for the next level. The Fact is, he was/is the next level, playing these past few years to refine a game that was NFL ready during his sophomore year at Stanford. The Cardinal return 13 starters, 6 on offense, and 7 on defense… but they are out of “Luck” and simply not the same team. A year ago, Stanford led the country in Red Zone efficiency, 64 penetrations and 63 scores, for a 98% scoring rate. Raise your hand if you think Luck was the driving force behind their success on these short fields. No question about it, Luck’s ability, skill, & mental awareness were the primary factors of Stanford’s conversion rate in the RZ! That said, Stepfan Taylor is an excellent runner and will be their featured back. The O-line and receivers will be down from last year’s units.  The D-line is led by Terrence Stephens, a player who is double teamed on a regular basis, yet the line loses some of  the talent that took advantage of these doubles on Stephens. The Linebacker corp (Shayne Skos & Chase Thomas) will be improved from the 2011 season, while the secondary will be down from a year ago. Prediction: Third

California: This team has clearly underachieved in recent years. They always seem to be athletic and skilled, but clearly lacking in the mental toughness arena. I am sorry to say that while they are athletic and skilled, they just are not tough enough or least that is impression one gets when watching them under perform these past few years.  Wide receiver, Keenan Allen and offensive tackle, Matt Summers-Gavin, are two of the best players in the PAC 12. On defense, Aaron Tipoti is an outstanding D-tackle and Marc Anthony is an excellent corner. At linebacker, Cecil Whiteside, leads a talented group that really needs to step up this year. Prediction: Fourth

Washington  Steve Sarkisian started quickly at Washington, given the disaster he inherited, in 2007, 3-10 and 0-12 in 2008. Sarkisian took on LSU in his first game at Washington and played them to an 8 point loss, 31-23. He finished with a 5-7 record in 2009 and has had winning seasons the past two years with identical 7-6 records. He is currently 19-19 as he enters his fourth year and should be able to lead his team to their 3rd straight bowl appearance. No small accomplishment given what he started with in 2009. On Offense, Tight End Austin Seferian-Jenkins and O-lineman Eric Kohler are outstanding players @ their respective positions. QB Keith Price is one of the best in the PAC 12 and Kasen Williams is a terrific receiver. The defense is led CB Desmond Trufant and D-linemen Josh Shirley. Prediction: Fifth

Washington State: Instance offense has arrived at Pullman in the person of Mike Leach. This guy’s team is always fun to watch and will run the score board numbers like a slot machine in Las Vegas. Leach led Texas Tech from 2000-through 2009 and has a career record of 84-43. His challenge is similar to Sarkisian’s and them some, as the Cougars do not have the winning tradition of the Huskies. On Offense, Leach will try to get the ball to his all PAC 12 WR, Marquess Wilson, as often as is possible. His QB, Jeff Tuel, is one of the better players in the conference and is an important step in the right direction, especially for the offensive minded Leach. On Defense, LB Travis Long is the leader, however, Leach will have to keep the ball away from the opposition as his defense will be thin in 2012. Prediction: Sixth

The South Division

Southern Cal: Sully’s CFP and a whole bunch of other folks think this is the best team in the country, or at least the best 22 starters in the nation. SC has only 74 players on scholarship this season and an injury here or there could spell disaster. Their QB, Matt Barkley is best at his position in the country and WR’s, Marqies Lee & Robert Woods are the best tandem in the land. Interestingly, “Tailback U” is thin at running back, while a talented Curtis McNeal leads the way, injuries and transfers have decimated their depth. Their O-line loses Matt Kalil (4th pick in NFL’s 1st round) but returns four starters and should perform at a higher level.  Their defense is extremely talented and experienced, except on the D-line where they are extremely talented but inexperienced. Prediction: First

UCLA: Finally, things are back to normal, that is, the Trojans  and Bruins are one and two (at least in the South Division) as in days of old. Jim Mora takes over for the fired Rick Neuheisel, who I thought was a great hire for UCLA. Mora comes from the NFL and will bring a no nonsense approach- perform or sit! He has players, TE Joseph Fauria, O-tackle, Xavier Su’a-Filo, and R-back Jonathan Franklin are all talented and experienced players. On the Defensive side of the ball, the Bruins are led by LB, Patrick Larimore & CB, Aaron Hester. Prediction: Second

Arizona: There is no question that this program and this conference are better fits for Rich Rodriguez! Rodriguez wants to run around you, Michigan wants to knock you loose… enough said! Matt Scott is one of the top QB’s in the league and his favorite target to be, Dan Buckner (a transfer from Texas), will be one of the PAC 12 best receivers. Their feared defense, once known as the Desert Storm (34 flex for football junkies) of recent years, has been more like the Desert Puff. This unit will feature LB, Brian Wagner & Safety, Marquis Flowers.  Prediction: Third

Utah: Kyle Whittingham is 65-25 at Utah. Last year they started the season 0-4 in the PAC 12 but destroyed BYU, 54-10, in the “Holy War”! This gave immediate rise to “see, they are in with the big boys now and are over matched”. The Utes, responded in true Lee Corso fashion: “not so fast my friend” and won 4 of their next 5 PAC 12 contests. On ‘O’ the Utes feature, arguably, the best running back in the conference, John White and a terrific O-lineman, Sam Brenner! Safety, Brian Blechen and  D-tackle Dave Kruger are the featured players on ‘D’. Prediction: Fourth

Arizona State: Todd Graham has made few, if any, friends with his handling of his Pittsburgh sayonara! Graham, reportedly, told his players of his departure via a forwarded text. I get timing can be an issue, but given the trust players and families put in you as a coach…timing be damned! A face to face is required, period, end of discussion! Graham inherits an outstanding running back, Cameron Marshall, WR, Jamal Mills (who was the only player in the country to score a TD by returning a kick-off, a punt and throwing a pass), and a very good O-tackle in Even Finkenburg. Linebacker, Brandon Magee and D-lineman, Will Sutton are the best players on that side of the ball for the Sun Devils. Prediction: Fifth.

Colorado: The Buffaloes return 9 starters from a 3-10 team, 3 on offense (without the QB) and 6 on defense. Coach Jon Embree has a huge challenge in front of him as he enters his second season. Offensive tackle, David Bakhtiari, is one of the best offensive lineman in the PAC 12; while defensive tackle, Will Pericak, leads the way on the other side of the ball! It is unlikely that Buffs will be leaving the cellar in the South Division and less likely that they will be Bowling in 2012 season! Prediction: Sixth

Championship Game: Outside of the SEC Championship (perhaps LSU and Georgia, Alabama vs Florida, or South Carolina against Arkansas) the Southern Cal vs Oregon match-up will create the most interest nationally. The teams do meet in the regular season on Nov. 3rd at the Coliseum in Los Angeles. If healthy, USC wins both of these games, if injuries came into play, SC is, by far, the more vulnerable team and Oregon wins its second PAC 12 championship.