Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

SEC vs Power Conferences

The BCS Era has come and gone, I know I am a minority, but I actually liked what it did for college football. Its primary intent was to get #1, on the field, against #2 and it did just that with a high degree of accuracy over the years! That said, the $’s to be had overwhelmed this simple concept; … Conference / Bowl tie-ins, the evolution of 4 BCS Bowls + the Championship Game, (How the hell do you get four BCS Bowls from one vs two?), 6 BCS Conferences & 5 Conferences… well …  not so much, and all the other add-ons in getting 1 against 2 that developed during its 16 year run! I know the answer, its money and a whole bunch of money always seems to equal an insatiable need for more money! Maybe the NCAA should have the O’jays sing their hit song ” For the love of Money” at the National Championship game on January 12, 2015 … a song that they released late in 1973 … I guess some things just don’t change! Ok, I’m done … preaching, whining, bitching … whatever that was … let’s take a peek at who the Mighty SEC plays from the Power Conferences (PC)!

Let’s start in the SEC West, the SEC plays eight conference games, 6 in the division and two cross divisional battles, one against an annual or permanent opponent and one that rotates. So the West has 56 conferences tilts (8 games x 7 teams), leaving each team with 4 non-conference games for a total of 28, out-of-conferences contests (4 x 7)! The teams in the West choose to play 4 of these 28 games against Power Conference opponents; Bama plays West Virginia (B-12), Auburn challenges Kansas State (B-12), LSU takes on Wisconsin (B-10) & Arkansas battles Texas Tech (B-12). Ole Miss, Mississippi State, & Texas A&M do not play a team from a Power Conference in 2014! Thus, the SEC West has elected to play 14% of their non-conference schedule against the “Big Boy” conferences. I know they like to say the SEC is “Big Boy football”, yet “Big Boy’ is not reflective in their scheduling out of conference opponents. Here is the really interesting thing, not one of these 4 games in 2014 is in a SEC West Stadium; Bama & LSU play West Virginia (Georgia Dome) & Wisconsin (Reliant) while Auburn & Arkansas play Kansas State & Texas Tech on the road! You would think SEC West folks would like to see USC, UCLA, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Florida State, & ND in their stadiums! To accomplish this, we are going to have to talk to Saint Nick (Coach Saban), who likes to play one really good opponent (Power Conference) at a neutral site, two FBS, Non Power Conference, teams (Sun Belt, MAC, C-USA, etc..) and one FCS opponent at Bryant-Denny. The lone exception in the past six years, is a home & home series with Penn State in 2010 & O11. With Saban’s approach to scheduling, Bama plays 3 non conference & 4 SEC, a total of 7 home games @ home, 1 @ a neutral site, & 4 conferences games on the road. PC’s will want a return trip to their arena, if they agree to play at Bryant-Denny! Thus Bama would have 5, not 4, road games, see what Nick is doing? / Smart Huh!

The SEC East: One of the very different realities between the West & East Divisions takes place during rivalry week at the end of the season. The West plays an SEC schedule and mostly within the division; LSU plays Arkansas, Bama battles Auburn (Iron Bowl), Old Miss takes on MSU (Egg Bowl), & A&M plays Missouri, an East Division opponent. Compare this with what the East does and you see a marked difference as to why they play the better (meaning … more …) out of conference schedule! The East plays 7 of their 28 non-conference games (25%) against Power Conferences, almost twice the # the West plays. In part, because of who they play on rivalry weekend, SC plays Clemson (ACC), Georgia steps up against Georgia Tech (ACC), Florida battles FSU (ACC), & Kentucky has moved their Louisville (ACC) game to this Thanksgiving  / Rivalry Weekend. This year, Georgia plays 2 Power Conference teams, G-Tech, as mentioned & Clemson; Missouri takes on Indiana (B-10); and Tennessee travels to Oklahoma (B-12). It should also be noted, 4 of the seven games are true road games for the SEC and only one, the Texas Tech game, is at a neutral site (Arlington). Vandy is the only team in the East Division not to have a Power Conference team on their schedule in 2014.

SEC: plays 11 Power Conferences opponents out a possible 56 games, an average of 19.64% or one in every 5 NC games is against a PC team; while playing 14 games against FCS teams, this 14/56 is average of 25% or one in every 4 NC games! If you don’t, you should get the strength of the SEC and as a result, have an understanding as to why they do not want to schedule up when playing out of conference! The simple truth is the SEC is the best league and other PC teams get a break with in-conference scheduling, that, for the most part, the SEC teams do not experience!  However, in this ‘Final Four’ play-off system, strength of schedule does matter and you have to demonstrate, in the regular season (not just in the bowl season and primarily against the Big Ten) that you are, who you like the rest of the country to think you are, the best! If you thought the BCS was political, wait till you get aloud of the Final Four Politics! The SEC gets a C grade for its out of league scheduling during the 2014 regular season! Last thought, look it, the SEC Champion is in the final four, that is not the question, the real question is, does the SEC get two teams, my answer is … yes, I think that they are that good, but they won’t get the second team, unless the conference schedules more PC teams (14 minimal) during the regular season! In the end, its not what ESPN, Bleacher Report, or Sully’s CFP says or thinks, its the stakes: the politics & the dollars! Clearly reputation, will not be enough, it has to be one’s body of work on the field … and even that … may not be enough for two teams from the Mighty SEC to get to the dance’!

Up Next: Big Ten vs Power Conferences

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Big Ten, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt |

FBS Power Conferences vs FCS in 2014

As you may know, FCS programs may give up to 63 scholarships, they may give fewer but not more. Also, teams in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) may portion the 63 scholarships out, among 85 players, but not more than 85. FBS programs must give 85 full rides or they could lose their Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) status. The FBS schools always play these games in their arenas, they write a check to the FCS school, and proceed to hammer the FCS opponent on the field. It should be noted, one victory (Not a second, if you elect to play a second FCS team that win does not count toward your needed 6) over a Championship Subdivision foe can be counted toward the six wins required become bowl eligible. I thought you might find in interesting what teams in the five Power Conferences are playing FCS teams, the number of games they play against these teams, and how often they lose one of these games. If you go to the site’s Team or Conference Page, look for the blue dots, as they indicated an FCS team. To get more detail about an individual game go the the team page, all 252 teams have an individual page!

Southeastern Conference (SEC): All 14 teams in the SEC played a FCS opponent in the 2014 season. They also played 14 games against the FCS in 2013 and went 13-1 (Florida was shocked by Georgia Southern)

West Division vs FCS in 2014: Alabama Plays Western Carolina out of the Southern Conference (SoCon); Auburn Takes on Samford, SoCon; LSU challenges Sam Houston State from the Southland Conference; Ole Miss battles Presbyterian from the Big South (BSC); Mississippi State welcomes UT Martin to Starkville, An Ohio Valley Conference Team (OVC); Texas A&M takes aim at Lamar University from the Southland Conference; Arkansas hosts Nicholls State from the Southland!

SEC West vs FCS in 2013, 7-0: Bama hammered Chattanooga, 49-0, Auburn pounded Western Carolina, 62-3; LSU stomped Furman, 48-16; Ole Miss stopped SE Missouri State, 31-13; MSU blasted Alcorn State, 51-7; Texas A&M busted up Sam Houston State, 62-28; Arkansas Survived Samford, 31-21.

SEC East vs FCS 2014: Georgia vs Charleston Southern, BSC; South Carolina plays Furman, SoCon; Florida takes on Eastern Kentucky, OVC; Missouri vs South Dakota State, Missouri Valley Conference (MVC); Tennessee vs Chattanooga, SoCon; Kentucky plays UT Martin, OVC; Vanderbilt takes on Charleston Southern, BSC

SEC East vs FCS in 2013, 6-1: Georgia beat up Appalachian State, 45-6, South Carolina blasted Coastal Carolina, 70-10; Florida was shocked by Georgia Southern, 26-20; Missouri knocked down Murray State, 58-14; Tennessee Annihilated Austin Peay, 45-0; Kentucky handled Alabama State, 48-14;  Vandy beat Austin Peay, 38-3.

Big Ten Conference (B-10): Three of the East Division Teams do not play an FCS opponent in 2014 and the same three did not play an FCS opponent in 2013.  For our purposes, we will compare the teams that are currently in the East, not Leaders / Legends from a year ago (Maryland & Rutgers are included in Big Ten East Review not the ACC or AAC)! As a result of counting in this manner, the B-10 played 11 games in both years! In 2013, the Big Ten went 11-0 vs FCS opponents!

East Division: Ohio State Does not play an FCS Team in 2014, ; Michigan State vs Jacksonville State, OVC; Michigan does not play an FCS team this year ( Note: they do play Appalachian State, who is now an FBS member as of 2014); Maryland takes on James Madison, Colonial Athletic Association (CAA);  Penn State does not play an FCS Team this season; Indiana plays Indiana State, MVC; Rutgers battles Howard University, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

East Division (Sort of) vs FCS in 2013: OSU did not play an FCS Team in 2013; MSU blasted Youngstown State, 55-17; Michigan did not play an FCS Opponent in 2013; Maryland beat Old Dominion, 47-10; PSU did not play an FCS Team in 2013; Indiana beat Indiana State, 73-35; Rutgers shut out Norfolk State, 38-0.

West Division FCS Games 2014: Wisconsin plays Western Illinois, MVC; Northwestern takes on Western Illinois , as well; Iowa takes on Northern Iowa, MVC; Nebraska battles McNeese State, Southland; Illinois vs Youngstown State, MVC; Minnesota takes on Eastern Illinois, OVC; Purdue hosts Southern Illinois, MVC.

West Division vs FCS in 2013; Wisconsin blasted Tennessee Tech, 48-0, Northwestern held off Maine, 35-21; Iowa beat Missouri State, 28-14; Nebraska stomped South Dakota State, 59-20; Illinois outscored Southern Illinois, 42-34; Minnesota held off Western Illinois, 29-12; & Purdue snuck by Indiana State, 20-14!

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) In 2014 all 14 teams play an FCS team. In 2013, the ACC went 15-0 vs FCS teams (Clemson do to a quirk in their schedule played 2 FCS teams) In both 2013 & 2014 every team in the conference chose to schedule an FCS team.

Atlantic Division vs FCS in 2014: FSU takes on The Citadel, SoCon; Clemson battles South Carolina State, MEAC; Louisville plays Murray State, OVC; Syracuse vs Villanova, CAA; NC State plays Presbyterian, BSC; Boston College vs Maine, CAA; Wake Forest meets Gardner-Webb, BSC.

Atlantic Division vs FCS in 2013: FSU pounded Bethune-Cookman, 53-6; Clemson played two FCS teams do to a scheduling issue (Remember Clemson could only count one of these wins toward the 6 required to become bowl eligible), they blasted both South Carolina State, 52-13 & The Citadel, 52-6; Louisville humbled Eastern kentucky, 44-7; Syracuse annihilated Wagner, 54-0; NC State survived Richmond, 23-21; Boston College stopped Villanova, 24-14; & Wake Forest beat Presbyterian, 31-7.

Coastal Division vs FCS in 2014: UNC takes on Liberty, Virginia Tech plays William & Mary, CAA; Miami hosts Florida A&M, MEAC; Pitt welcomes Delaware, CAA; Georgia Tech battles Wofford, SoCon, Duke faces Elon, CAA; & Virginia squares off with Richmond, CAA.

Coastal Division vs FCS in 2013; UNC destroyed Old Dominion, 80-20, Va Tech blasted Western Carolina, 45-3; Miami annihilated Savannah State, 77-7; Pitt Struggled with Old Dominion, 35-24; Georgia Tech obliterated Elon, 70-0; Duke hammered North Carolina Central, 45-0; & Virginia detonated Virginia Military Institute, 49-0!

Pacific Coast Conference (PAC 12) The PAC 12 plays 8 FCS teams in 2014, 4 of their 12 teams did not schedule an FCS opponent (UCLA & SC never schedule them). In 2013 the conference scheduled 9 Football Championship Subdivision opponents and went 8-1 against them, Oregon State fell to Eastern Washington!

North Division vs FCS in 2014: Oregon welcomes South Dakota, MVC; Stanford plays UC Davis, Big Sky; Washington battles Eastern Washington, Big Sky; Oregon State takes on Portland State, Big Sky; Washington State battles Portland State, as well; California hosts Sacramento State, Big Sky.

North Division vs FCS in 2013: Oregon swamped Nicholls State, 66-3, Stanford did not play an FCS opponent, Washington massacred Idaho State, 56-0; Oregon State was ambushed by Eastern Washington, 49-46; Washington State blasted Southern Utah, 48-10; California survived Portland State, 37-30!

South Division vs FCS in 2014: UCLA does play an FCS team; USC does not play an FCS opponent, Arizona does not play an FCS team; Arizona State plays Weber State, Big Sky; Utah welcomes Idaho State, Big Sky; & Colorado does not play an FCS team.

South Division vs FCS in 2013: UCLA did not play an FCS opponent; USC did n0t schedule an FCS team; (Please Note: UCLA, USC, & ND have never scheduled, by definition, an FCS opponent); Arizona busted up Northern Arizona, 35-0; ASU hammered Sacramento State, 55-0; Utah disintegrated Weber State, 70-7; Colorado escaped Central Arkansas, 38-24!

Big 12 Conference (B-12) In 2014 the Big 12 scheduled 8 games against FCS universities, Oklahoma & Texas did not schedule an FCS opponent. In 2013 the conference played 8 FCS opponents again, going 7-1, K-State beaten by 3-time defending FCS Champion, North Dakota State

The B-12 does not have Divisions:

Oklahoma: 2014, did not schedule an FCS opponent & in 2013, did not play an FCS team!

Baylor: 2014, plays Northwestern State, Southland & in 2013, Baylor obliterated Wofford, 69-3.

Texas: 2014, did not schedule an FCS team & in 2013, did not play an FCS Team.

TCU: 2014 play Samford, SoCon & in 2013 TCU beat SE Louisiana, 38-17.

Kansas State: 2014 takes on Stephen F Austin, Southland & in 2013, K-State lost to North Dakota State, 24-21

Oklahoma State: 2014 plays Missouri State, MVC & in 2013, OSU blasted Lamar University, 59-3.

Texas Tech:  2014 scheduled Central Arkansas, Southland & in 2013, T-Tech busted up Stephen F. Austin, 61-13.

West Virginia: In 2014 plays Towson, CAA & in 2013, WV outlasted William & Mary, 24-17.

Iowa State: 2014 scheduled North Dakota State, MVC & in 2013, ISU escaped Northern Iowa, 28-20!

Kansas: 2014 plays SE Missouri, OVC & in 2013 Kansas beat South Dakota, 31-14.

So here is what we have in games scheduled in 2014, matching the Power Conferences against the Football Championship Subdivision: SEC 14, B-10 11, ACC 14, PAC 12 8, & B-12 8. This adds up to a total of 55 games being played by Power Conferences (85 scholarship schools) against the Football Championship Subdivision (63 scholarship schools),  In 2013, these groups played each other 57 times, 2 fewer games in 2014 than in o13. The breakdown is as follows: SEC, 13-1; B-10, 11-0; ACC, 15-0; PAC 12, 8-1; B-12 7-1; The Power Conferences went 54-3 vs the FCS in 2013! Notre Dame, while an Independant, is factored in this Power Conference alignment do to its quasi relationship with the ACC, that said, it should be noted that the Irish do not schedule FCS opponents! Let me know what you think!

Up Next: Power Conferences vs Power Conferences

Posted in ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Baylor, Bethune-Cookman, Big 12, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, Boston College, Cal Poly, California, Clemson, Colonial Athletic Association, Colorado, Duke, Eastern Washington, FBS Independents, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, Indiana State, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Lamar University, LSU, Maine, MEAC, Miami FL, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Missouri, Missouri Valley, NC State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Nicholls University, North Carolina, North Dakota State, Northern Arizona, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ohio Valley, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon State, PAC 12, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Presbyterian, Purdue, Sacramento State, Sam Houston State, Samford, SEC, South Carolina, Southern Conference, Southland Conference, Stanford, SWAC, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC, Utah, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Western Carolina, Wisconsin, Youngstown State |

SEC West Division Sneak Preview 2014

SEC

West Division:

1. Auburn: For all you Bama fans, I’m afraid I have bad news for you & the rest of the congregation! From way up in the frigid North (Wausau, Wisconsin), it looks like Gus Malzahn & Company have figured out how to play & beat, Nick Saban and his Good Ole Boy coaching staff, trick door in his office and all! In 2010, Auburn (Malzahn was the OC in O10) was down to the Tide 24-0 and back come the Tigers! Auburn put up 28 points while holding Alabama to a FG, for a shocking, 28-27, win in Tuscaloosa’s Bryant-Denny Stadium! Last year, with the Tiger fan base ‘chantin’, Kick Bama Kick (4 missed FG in the game)  and the scored tied at 28; Bama, on advise from the Auburn faithful, did try a 57 yard FG. This attempt led to the most exciting, bazaar, wild, whatever descriptor, one would choose to use, would be inadequate; to describe Chris Davis’ 109 yard return, for the winning score as time expiring! Ok …  Sure, these games could have gone either way, so to say that Malzahn has Saban’s number is a little much … right? I’m not referring to the outcome of these games, I am referring to the pace that Malzahn’s team plays at on O! Bana’s D likes to show a look, have the QB read the D & audible to another play. Bama’s defense then morphs into the right Defensive call to effectively neutralize the adjusted play. These defensive adjustments are based on hours & hours & hours of film study … see why Coach Saban does not this “hurry up stuff” …  it negates his hard-earned competitive edge! The speed at which the Tiger offense plays does not allow the defense time to show the QB a look. In fact, they really don’t care what the D is showing, their real concern is to pressure them with pace and not allow time for substitution. It works! On Offense, AU returns, QB, Nick Marshall, RB, Tre Mason is gone, yet the Tigers may be just as good with Cameron Artis-Payne & Corey ‘Tail Lights’ Grant (4.18 in the 40). The Tigers are loaded at WR, Sammie Coates,  Ricardo Louis, Marcus Davis, & D’haquille Williams, the nations #1 JC receiver in 2013 are all ready to roll (so to speak). The O-Line returns 4 starters (8 of 10 who played in the rotation) from last year high performing unit! The Defense is led by D-linemen, DT, Gabe Wright & DE, Carl Lawson, LB, Cassanova McKinzy, & DB’s, CB, Jonathon Mincy & FS, Jermaine Whitehead. This #1 projection in the West will not be ‘a ride in the park’ better thought of as ‘running a gauntlet’! Games at home against LSU & South Carolina and road battles with Ole Miss, MSU, Georgia, & Bama have to be survived to plant the SEC West Division Flag in Jordan-Hare Stadium!

2. Alabama: In the last six years, Bama has won 72 games and lost 9, won 2 SEC Titles, and 3 National Championships in that time frame. Heading into the 2013 season, the Tide had won back to back BCS National Championships ( beating LSU 21-0 in 2011 & ND 42-14 in 2012). They were positioned to take a run at a three-peat until the loss in Jordan-Hare to Auburn, 28-27, in their season finale. Nick Saban (79-15 @ Bama / Overall 170-57-1) is now considered, not only among today’s best coaches, he is thought of as one of the all-time greats. That said, Saban is coaching in an environment that is all about “what have you done lately” and that seems to be the only part of the measuring stick that has any relevance! The old Al Davis’ perspective, ‘Just Win Baby’ … seems to be alive and well in college football.  For the 3rd straight year, Bama opens their season at a neutral site, this time in Atlanta, against West Virginia. The Tide beat Michigan, in Cowboy Stadium, 41-14 in 2012 & in 2013, the Tide washed Virginia Tech away, 35-10, in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome. In 2014, Alabama’s offense is led by RBs, TJ Yeldon, a Preseason All-American & Derek Henry (who I think is better than Yeldon) can be argued to be the Nations best duo (apologies Georgia & Wisconsin), while WR’s, Amari Cooper is a preseason All American & DeAndrew White is receiving All-SEC mention. Bama’s TE, OJ Howard is getting All American recognition and the O-Line returns three starters, led by another All American, Arie kouandjio. At each of the D’s three levels, Alabama has a player getting preseason All American attention; on the D-Line, DE, A’Shawn Robinson, @ LB, it’s their MLB, Trey DePriest, & in the secondary, FS, Landon Collins is receiving 1st team All American chatter! Alabama is really good … Yet, so is their schedule; they take on Florida, Mississippi State, A&M, & Auburn @ home and travel to Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, & LSU. It should be noted, that the Tide gets these 4 road games in a row, in other words, they do not play a single home game September 20 to November 15. In a six week time frame, from October 4th to November 8th, they play all these road games in succession (with a Bye on 11/1 before the LSU game on 11/8)! This is going to interesting!

3. Mississippi State: I know I’m a minority in picking MSU this high in the west, but with 16 starters who have experienced the SEC West, a duel threat QB, and playing Vandy & Kentucky (2 must win games) in their divisional crossover games, MSU needs to make its move …  if not now … when?.  Danny Mullen’s team has to step up this year or pretty much just sit down for a long while! The challenge for the Bulldogs is their swing games, LSU on September 20 & Ole Miss on November 29th, both on the road. The last time MSU won in Louisiana was in 1991, in other words, they have lost 11 straight times in Tiger Stadium. That said, while LSU has better 85 man roster than the Bulldogs, the Tigers are really young, especially at the skilled positions. I’m counting on the fact that the MSU/LSU game on Sept. 20th will be the first taste of SEC football for LSU’s young talent and that, in combination with the experience of the MSU players will be enough to pull the upset! The Ole Miss game or the Egg Bowl, clearly favors the home team, as the visitor is 2-13 in the last 15; yet, Ole Miss won in Starkville (MSU Davis Wade Stadium) 17-10 in OT  in 2013 …  is payback in the air? MSU has to win at least one of these games, and @ home, beat A&M (post Manziel) & Arkansas (Bielema’s work-in-progress) to get to 5-3. Clearly, this will not be easy, however, MSU has the experience to get this done in 2014. On offense the Bulldogs feature QB, Dak Prescott, RB, Josh Robinson, WRs De’Runnya Wilson & Jameon Lewis, TE, Malcolm Johnson & an O-Line that returns three starters. On defense, the D-Line returns 7 of their top 8 & is led by DT, Chris Jones, the LB corps is headed up by Benardrick McKinney, while the secondary returns 3 starters, including CB, Jamerson Love.

4. LSU: If success in the Real Estate industry is location, location, location, then one could argue success in college athletics is recruit, recruit, recruit! LSU does this just about as well as any program in the FBS! In this incoming freshmen class, the Tigers have the #I, RB, Leonard Fournette, the #I WR, Malachi Dupre, & the #2 ILB, Clifton Garrett. WOW, is really all one can say! Yet, before  we give them the ‘keys to the West Division’ consider what they lost! QB, Zack Mettenburger, whos passed for over 3000 yards, Gone; Jeremy Hill, who rushed for over 1400 yards, Gone; & WRs, Odell Beckham & Jarvis Landry both had over 1100 yards receiving, Gone. These numbers were never achieved, in a single season, by any previous LSU team, quite a feat given the Tigers illustrious history. Wes Miles’ team opens their 2014 season in Reliant Stadium, against Wisconsin, an excellent way to get their very young talent introduced to smash-mouth football. LSU will be a very good team in 2014, the real question is; how quickly will their skill become reflective of their talent? Oh yeah, one other guy I wanted to mention, DE, Danielle Hunter, a 6’6” 241, who has the dimensions of past greats, Sam Montgomery & Barkevious Mingo. I can still see those two guys roaring in off the edge and taking aim at the QB! The September 20 game vs MSU will be a key factor in measuring how fast LSU’s talent is ascending!

5. Ole Miss: The talent in this league just keeps coming and Ole Miss is part of that reasoning not the exception. Last year, SLB, Denzel Nkemdiche went down with an injury, Serderius Bryant not only stepped up, he earned second team All-SEC honors. In 2013, the Rebels played a 12 man rotation on the D-Line and 10 return, including Robert Nkemdiche, for the 2014 season! The LBs are experienced and deep. Phil Steele has the Ole Miss D-Line as the 12th best in the country & the LB corps as the Nations 3rd best! The Secondary is led by 1st team Preseason All American, FS, Cody Prewitt and returns 8 of the 10 who saw action a year ago. Ole Miss’ defense is one of the best in the SEC! The answer to the question, “How good will the Rebels be in 2014″ will be determined by the play of the offense! QB, Bo Wallace has had moments of stardom and then, not so much. For Ole Miss to become an efficient offensive unit, it has to start with Wallace becoming consistent! If he does … watch out! The RBs need to improve, in 2013, I’Tavius Mathers ran for 563 yards & Jaylen Walton rushed for 523, and to that end, JC transfer, Akeem Judd should help. WR, Laquon Treadwell, who was the #1 receiver coming out of high school, caught 72 passes last year for 608 yards and an average of 8.4 yards per catch. Treadwell stats are to low on the total yards (based on the # of catches) and yards per catch (he’s 6’3” 225 pounds & runs a 4.5 … This guy can run over or away from DB’s). Compare Amari Cooper, a WR for Alabama, who caught 45 balls for 736 yards and an average of 18.4 yards per catch. The truth is Treadwell is better than Cooper and he and Wallace need to perform with that kind of confidence! The O-Line returns 2 of 5 and are led by Preseason All-SEC, LT, Laremy Tunsil.  Ole Miss could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th in the West and I, for one, would not be surprised with the Rebels finishing in any of those places.

6. Texas A&M: The Post Johnny Manziel Era has arrive, as A&M fans look back fondly at those two SEC championships, wait a minute, Johnny’s teams never won the SEC, well, ok, those two hard earned West Division Championships, hold it, they didn’t win the division either! Manziel was 5-1 in the West in 2012 (6-2 in the SEC)  and 3-3 in the Division in 2013 (4-4 in the Conference). So it begs the question, how does this guy’s time @ A&M get an Era attached to his last name. Do not blame Manziel, he never referred to his time in Aggieland as anything remotely like an Era, in fact, he seemed to indicate, at least at times, that he was looking forward to the day when he would have College Station in his rear view mirror. The simple truth is that when A&M & Missouri came into the SEC, the general feeling was they do not belong in this league and they are going to get hammered! Most of the talking heads thought that A&M was a better fit (wild crowd, 12th man, & et al) than MU, but still not SEC quality. As a result of the low expectations for the Aggies coming into the League, their 6-2 conference record and going 5-1 in the Mighty West Division surprised to shocked college analysts. These perceptions, coupled with Manziel’s style of play, the win at Bryant-Denny, his off field adventures, and the Legend/Era was born! No question he was fun to watch and I, for one, will miss him on Saturday’s. The Aggies offense will be led by, LT, Cedric Ogbuehi & LG, Jarvis Harrison. The Defense will have to ‘carry the ball’ so to speak if they are to get anywhere near where they were in 2012 or 2013. The D will be led by the secondary, which will feature CB, Deshazor Everett!

7. Arkansas: Bielema’s O-Line in Fayetteville is starting to look like his O-Line @ Wisconsin; C, Mitch Smothers, 6’4” 313; RG, Denver Kirkland, 6’5” 348; LG, Luke Charpentier, 6’4” 320, RT, Brey Cook, 6’7” 328, & LT, Dan Skipper, 6’10 (that’s right six foot ten) 315. That said, this unit is not getting a lot of love in Preseason All-SEC selections, only Cook is being mentioned as a potential All-Conference player. Bielema’s RB are getting plenty of attention, Phil Steele has Jonathon Williams, 2nd team All-SEC & Alex Collins as a 4th team selection. The RB’s are in place and the O-Line, if nothing else, is huge and will be better in their second year of this “smash mouth” Badger style of football.  The WR are big, and should preform better in 2014, they are led by, Demetrius Wilson & D’Arthur Cowan both 6’3″ and Keon Hatcher (6’2” 210) returns with his 27 receptions, 346, & 2 TD’s. TE, Hunter Henry is getting All-SEC Preseason recognition, Henry was the second leading receiver on last years team and will figure big into the passing game! DE, Trey Flowers leads the defense, he will get help from DT, Darius Philon in the middle. The LB corps has two starters back and the secondary returns 3 of 4. Arkansas will be better this year, the problem is their SEC schedule. The Razorbacks are the only team in the SEC, scheduled to play against 8 conference opponents who all made a bowl in 2013. While a bowl game is unlikely, they are headed in the right direction and 4 or even 5 wins are possible this season!

Up Next: Power Conferences vs FCS Teams

 

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, SEC, Texas A&M |

SEC East Division Sneak Preview 2014

SEC

East Division

1. South Carolina: In the last three years, South Carolina has won 33 games and lost 6, outperforming  their biggest rivals in the vaunted SEC East; Georgia 30-11, Florida 22-16, & Tennessee 15-21 .. (# Please Note; Missouri has only been it the league for 2 years). Yet, during this time frame, SC did not win a division championship! If you were to look at these teams over the past ten years, they do look a little different; Florida 94-36, Georgia 94-37, SC 83-44, & Tennessee 67-58. While one could argue that the SEC East is the second best division in all of college football, there is little question it is the second best of the two Divisions in the SEC. The Gamecocks return 14 starters, 8 on offense, led by Preseason All Americans, RB, Mike Davis, & LG, A.J. Gann and All SEC Preseason picks, WR, Shaq Roland & O-Linemen, Brandon Shell & Corey Robinson. On Defense 7 starters return for the 2014 season, the Gamecocks feature, LB, Sharrod Golightily, DT, J.T. Surratt, & Safety, Brison Williams.  The 2013 season marked the 3rd time in a three year period (011 to 013) that SC beat the team that won their division! In 2011, Georgia won the Division, yet Carolina beat the Dwags, 45-42 at Sanford Stadium. In 2012, Georgia won the division again,  yet SC hammered them, 35-7 @ Williams-Brice! Finally, in 2013, Missouri reigned in the East, but fell to South Carolina @ home in Memorial Stadium, 27-24, in 2 OTs. In 2011 the Gamecocks lost two divisional crossover game, Auburn 16-13 & Arkansas, 44-28 but dominated the East going 5-0 in the division. In 2012, the Cocks went 5-1 in the East, tying Georgia & Florida in the Division (Note; Not Conference, SC went 6-2 overall in SEC Play, while Georgia & Florida tied at 7-1). In 2012, SC lost to Florida, 44-11 (they actually outgained the Gators, 191 to 183, but turned the ball over 4 times to UF’s zero) & lost one of their Divisional crossover games, 23-21 to LSU at Tiger Stadium and then later in the year beat Arkansas @ home, 38-20 (only 2 crossover games after 2011 with Missouri coming into the East and A&M the West). In 2013, SC posted a 4-2 slate in the East, an upset loss to Tennessee, 23-21, at Neyland Stadium (once again SC won the total yardage battle, 384 to 325 but turned the ball over twice while forcing none) & were outscored by Georgia, 41-30 @ Sanford Stadium. Yet, once again, beat the East Champion, Missouri, 27-24. This year, SC has Georgia at home and their divisional crossover games are the season opener, at home, against Texas A&M and later, October 25 at Auburn. While their chief challenger, on paper, for the Division title, Georgia, has Auburn at home (payback for the tipped pass?) and Arkansas on the road. The game at Florida, 11/15,  is worrisome for SC’s divisional title run! That said, Sully’s CFP has SC going 6-0 in the East & 7-1 in the conference, losing only at Auburn and for the first time, since 2010, arguably, the best team in the East these past three seasons (at least best in head to head competition) actually wins the East!

2. Georgia:  In the SEC, divisional Crossover games matter, as you are assigned one permanent rival,  (Georgia vs Auburn, South Carolina challenges Arkansas, Florida takes on LSU, Tennessee plays Alabama, Vandy steps up against Ole Miss, & Kentucky battles MSU … Please Note: Permanent rivals may chance to accommodate scheduling issues.. for instance; SC does not play Arkansas in 2014) and one rotating opponent. Giving the power of the teams at the top of the West (Auburn & Alabama may be ranked in the top 4 nationally in 014), it becomes critical to the race in the East, as to who your rotated game with the West is against in a given year. This year, Georgia draws Arkansas on the road, this may be the best opponent to play out of the powerful West, giving the current problems in Fayetteville. That said, Uga has to play Auburn, this is the South oldest rivalry, the teams began playing in 1892 and have met 117 times as of 2013.  Auburn leads the series 55-54-8 and last year’s game was reflective of the excitement this game can & does generate. Auburn was down, 38-37, when the Tigers got possession of the ball with 1:49 left to play, on its own 27 yard line. A 4th down, Hail Mary pass, from Nick Marshall was deflected by a Georgia Safety, Josh Harvey-Clemons and was caught by Ricardo Louis (The Prayer at Jordan Hare as it is now known) with 25 seconds left to play for the winning score, Auburn 43 Georgia 38! Georgia returns the best duet at RB in the country, Todd Gurley & Keith Marshall (Alabama & Wisconsin may disagree) and one of the best receiver corps in the nation, Malcolm Mitchell, Chris Conley & Michael Bennett. The question on offense is how good is new QB, Hutson Mason? The O-Line is solid and with healthy RB’s this year, should have better numbers in 2014. The defense returns 8 starters from a year ago, led by LB’s Ramik Wilson & Jordan Jenkins, the D-Line will feature DE, Ray Drew, & Secondary is anchored by CB, Damian Swann. Georgia’s D will be better at all three levels in 2014, especially the secondary that under performed in 013! Get ready for the early showdown in Colombia, on September 13th, ‘the Dwags come-a-callin’, the winner is clearly in the drivers seat for the SEC’s East Crown. Or is it? Georgia may want to lose this game, as the last two times they lost to SC, 2011 & 2012, they won the East Division!

3. Florida: This is one of the most dangerous teams in the country. Last year, Florida was 4-8, say what? Let me say again, 4-8, yes 4-8 and no, it’s not a misprint!. After beating Arkansas on October 5th, 30 to 10, to run their record to 4-1, the Gators never won another game! Losing seven in a row, including a loss to Georgia Southern, (an FCS that was in transition to the FBS), 26-20! For those of you who are interested, Georgia Southern will play in the Sun Belt Conference this year! That said, UF lost to their biggest East Division rivals, Georgia, 23-20 & South Carolina, 19-14, a bounce here or a play there and the Gators may have won both of those games. Florida is led on offense by QB, Jeff Driskel, RB, Kelvin Taylor, & TE, Demarcus Robinson; while the defense has Preseason All Americans, CB, Vernon Hargreaves & DE, Dante Flower and Preseason All SEC, LB, Antonio Mason. The Gators get East Division rival SC & LSU (permanent/on-going West Division rival) @ home, Georgia, at a neutral site, Jacksonville and defending East Champ, Missouri, in Gainesville. All positives, however, the Gators have to go to Alabama in the second divisional crossover game and end their season against defending national champ, Florida State in Tallahassee! Florida will be better in 2014, no question, there is also, no question, that playing @ Alabama, LSU, Georgia (Neutral site), South Carolina, & at Florida State is battling through one of the toughest schedules in the country! Will Muschamp will have his team on a mission this year and they could be one of the most interesting storylines of the 2014 season! The Gators should be 3-0 when the travel to Tuscaloosa, on September 20, to take on the Tide!

4. Tennessee: Butch Jones had the Volunteers (5-7) close to being bowl eligible in his first year as Tennessee Head Coach. A loss, late in the season, to in-state rival, Vanderbilt, 14-10, kept UT home for the holidays. What made the loss even harder to accept was that the game was played in Knoxville! This year, the Vols return 10 starters, 5 on either side of the ball. WR, Marquez North is the lone headliner back on offense, while the defense returns first team, Preseason All American, LB, A.J. Johnson and two DB that have received All SEC recognition, SS, Brian Randolph & CB, Cameron Sutton. That said, it is important to note, Jones has recruited well in his first full year on the recruiting trail. The good news is, a lack of experience can be addressed with superior talent; the bad news is, this is the SEC and everybody recruits well! Jones’ goal in year two, will be to become bowl eligible, this will be no easy task! The Volunteers play a NC game at Oklahoma, divisional games @ Georgia & SC, and Alabama (Periment West foe @ home) & @ Ole Miss in their crossover games. The Vols face Kentucky, Missouri, @ Vandy in the final three weeks of the 2014 season. Chances are they will need to win 2 of these final three and possibly, all of them, to get their six wins to be eligible for the second season!

5. Vanderbilt: The Miracle Worker, James Franklin, has departed for Happy Valley, after winning 18 games in Nashville the past two season a rare occurrence for the Commodores. In fact, in Vandy’s 122 year history of playing football, they had one season, prior to 2012, where they won 9 games. Thanks to Franklin, they now have three! Enter Derek Mason, the Stanford Defensive Coordinator the past four years, his hire is intended to send the clear message that Vandy intends to continue on Franklin path of maintaining high academic standards, while winning football games in the powerful SEC! Mason’s success at Stanford was achieved @ one of the few Division One Universities, that has educational expectations, that match or exceed Vanderbilts. The Commodores return 10 starters, 6 on the offensive side of the ball and 4 on defense. Mason task will be a very difficult one, as he does not have a single offensive player, who is receiving preseason recognition on Phil Steels’s, four deep position chart. On defense, LB, Kyle Woestmann is the sole player to be recognized. Vandy’s non-Conference schedule will help them toward bowl eligibility, as they do not face an opponent from a power conference (Temple, U-Mass, Charleston Southern (FCS), & Old Dominion). Last year the Commodores beat Tennessee, 14-10, Kentucky, 22-6, Florida, 34-17, & Georgia, 31-27. The best one can say is that it will be unlikely for them to repeat that Herculean effort in 2014!

6. Missouri: Last year Missouri had one of the best and clearly, one of the tallest receiver corps in the country, Dorial Green-Beckham, 6’6” , Marcus Lucas 6’5” & L’Damian Washington 6’4”. All three are gone for the 2014, Lucas & Washington to graduation & Green-Beckham was dismissed from the team for multiple violations. The unexpected loss of Beckham was a “sucker punch” that the Tigers will not be able to overcome during the 2014 season. With Texas transfer, WR, Darius White 6’3, coupled with Green-Beckham, MU would have been just fine at Wide Out, now, not so much! QB James Franklin is gone, enter Maty Mauk, again Missouri is fine, as Mauk, aside from his unorthodox throwing motion, will be an effective signal caller.  RB, Henry Josey was a remarkable story in 2013, out for the 2012 season with one of the worst knee injuries the team surgeon had ever seen; Josey under went multiple surgeries and was able to return for his final year. HJ rushed for 1207 yards in 2013, quiet a journey & success story. This year, Russell Hansbrough, who rushed for 714 yards last year will be the starter. The O-Line has three starters back led by Center, Evan Boehm and should be able to reproduce last years numbers. The D-Line features, DE, Marcus Golden, the linebackers will look to MLB, Kentrell Brothers for leadership, & the secondary’s best player is Safety, Braylon Webb. Missouri will start the season 3-1, South Dakota State, @ Toledo, Central Florida (a Loss to UCF at home) and Indiana. The Tigers then take a trip to the other Columbia, to face South Carolina and a real difficult beginning to their 2014 SEC season!

7. Kentucky: The Wildcats have gone 4-20 the past two years and their seems to be little relief headed Mark Stoops’ Team’s way. The Cats have currently lost 16 straight games in the vaunted SEC; their last conference win was in 2011, a 10-7 nail-biter against Tennessee, who outgained the UK, 276 to 215, but turned the ball over three times to Kentucky’s none. Kentucky does return 15 starters from a year ago, seven on Offense & eight on defense. The best player on the offensive side of the ball is LT, Darrian Miller, while on defense, the Cats feature, DE’s Alvin DuPree & Za’Darius Smith. UK should go 3-1 in their Non-Conference games (beating UT Martin, Ohio, & ULM), losing to only Louisville in the season finale. To go Bowling this year, kentucky will have to beat Vandy at home and then pull an upset, make that two upsets, within the Might SEC!

Up Next: SEC West Division

Posted in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, SEC, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt |

PAC 12 South Division Sneak Preview 2014

PAC 12 

South Division

1. UCLA: The Bruins have taken advantage of USC probation and scholarship reduction to the point where they are favored to win the South Division in 2014. That’s the good news for UCLA, the bad news is that the Trojans are now off probation and will field a roster of 85 players in 2015. UCLA has the second best QB in the PAC 12, Brett Hundley, who passed for 3,071 yards / 9 TD’s and rushed for 748 yards / 11 TD’s. Hundley led the Bruins in rushing last year, something that HC Jim Mora would probably not want to see again! RB Jordan James or Paul Perkins have to step up in 2014, as will TE Thomas Duarte and WRs Jordan Payton & Devin Fuller. The O-Line is led by by preseason All PAC 12, OG Malcolm Bunche (A Florida Transfer). The best know player on defense is LB Myles Jack, the first player in PAC 12 history to be recognized as the Freshman of the Year on both sides of the ball! Inside Backer. LB Eric Kendricks, led the PAC 12 with 150 tackles in 2013, who along with Jack, will give the Bruins terrific play at that position, while Eddie Vanderdoes will lead a solid D-Line! The secondary, directed by Anthony Jefferson, Fabian Moreau, & Randall Goforth, will be one of the best in the country!

2. USC: The Trojans are off probation, Hallelujah, says new HC Steve Sarkisian! While they will have only 75 scholarship players on their roster for the 2014 season, in 2015 they will return to full strength and field a complete FBS compliment of 85 scholarship players! Watch out!! RB Javorius Allen will be one of the best, if not the man, in the PAC 12, Max Tuerk, Aundrey Walker & Chad Wheeler will lead the a very good O-Line. They will have to learn new schemes under the new regime, this should be no problem given their experience! Nelson Agholor is one of the top receivers, if not the best, in the country! USC defense will be formidable, Leonard Williams leads a deep and talented  group, which added more strength via Texas Tech transfer, Delvon Simmons! The LB crew will be one of the best in the nation, Hayes Pullard & Anthony Sarao will head this group! The DB are good, CBs Kevon Seymour & Su’a Cravens will provide experience and the secondary will benefit from one of the best front seven’s in all of college football!

3. Arizona: Rich Rod (Rodriguez) has put together two solid seasons at Arizona, going 8-5 in each and winning two bowl games. The Wildcats return 13 starters, 7 on offense & 6 on defense. The time for a double digit win season could be 2014! They should be the favorite in 9 of 12 games (only the dog to Oregon SC & UCLA). If things go according to Hoyle in those 9 games coupled with another a bowl win …  equals a 10 win season and Rich Rod will have the Michigan Experience in his rear view mirror forever! The Arizona offense will be led by QB, Jesse Scroggins, (USC transfer), WRs Nate Phillips & DaVonte’ Neal (ND transfer)  and an O-Line returns three starters. Rich Rod will simply not be able to replace his All American RB, Ka’Deem Carey! LB Scooby Wright & CB, Jared Travis will lead the best defense that Rodriguez has fielded in his three year tenure at Arizona!

4. Colorado: I know what your thinking; what the *%#@ is Sully drinking? How can he have the Buffs in front of ASU or Utah for that matter. It’s simple, 16 starters return for the 2014 season (8 aside) and HC Mike MacIntyre can and will improve on his four wins from a year ago! CU opens the 2014 season in Denver vs Colorado State, @ U-Mass, @ home against ASU and Hawaii, & then travel to Cal in week five! The Buffs 1st real test in 2014 will be in week three, in Boulder, against Arizona State! If they can win that game @ Folsom Field, MacIntyre should, at least on paper, have the Buffs at 5-0 and needing one win in his last seven games to get CU to its first bowl game since 2007, (Independence Bowl, a 30-24 loss to Bama)! The Buffalos are led on offense by OG, Daniel Munyer & WR Nelson Spruce. On defense, LB Addison Gillam & CB Greg Henderson!

5. Arizona State: ASU clearly has more star power than CU, QB Taylor Kelly, WR Jalen Strong, OT Jamil Douglas & TE De’Marieya Nelson on offense. That said, on defense, the Devils return only 2 starters, let me say again … 2 starters. To deal with the lack of experience on that side of the ball, HC Todd Graham has brought in a boat load of JC talent!  The best of these players may be DT Dalvon Stuckey, who is already getting PAC 12 recognition without having played a down in the league. These guys will need to get up to speed on how things are done in the PAC 12, like the speed of the game at this level. The fact that the game with Colorado is in week three is a critical factor as to why Sully’s CFP likes the Buffs. If the game were played in week eight, CU advantage in experience would be negated and we would reconsider the outcome. ASU is/will be an interesting story in 2014!

6. Utah: Bill King the satellite guru of college football has often stated that he believes that the Utes are in the wrong league. King thinks that they should be in the Mountain West. The facts are; Utah won four games in the PAC 12 in their first year in the league in 2011, then Utes won 3 conference games in 2012, and last year, Whittingham’s team won 2 league games! Bill might be right, but I doubt the Coach Whittingham would agree. Utah’s schedule in 2014 is a challenging one, in addition to the PAC 12 schedule, which includes Oregon & Stanford in divisional crossover games. The Utes take on a very good Fresno State team @ home and travel to the Big House, to take on a Michigan team that returns 15 starters! Utah offense features, WR Dres Anderson & OT Jeremiah Poutasi while the D will be led by DE Nate Orchard, LB Jason Whittingham (HC Whittington’s Nephew) and SS Eric Rowe!

Up Next: SEC East Division

Posted in Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, PAC 12, UCLA, USC, Utah |

PAC 12 North Division Sneak Preview 2014

PAC 12

North Division

1. Oregon: Last year, Mark Helfrich replaced Chip Kelly as the Ducks head coach, he won 11 games, beat Texas badly in their back yard at the Alamo Bowl, 30-7 and finished the 2013 season as the # 9 ranked team in the country. Yet, many of the UO fans were unhappy with Helfrich and wondered aloud if he was ‘the guy’ to lead their team after Kelly. The expectations at Oregon are simple; win the North Division, win the PAC 12 Championship Game and get to a BCS Bowl (now the final four will be the target). As good as Helfrich’s squad was last year, his first team did not meet any of these goals. Fair or not, this is the reality for the UO coach in the post Kelly Era! Helfrich has the weapons to lead his team to all three of those objectives in 2014. Marcus Mariota is one of the top three QB in the country, Bryan Marshall will be one of the best, if not the best, runners in the PAC 12, & all five starters return from the 2013 O-Line. This unit is led by 1st team preseason All American center, Hroniss Grasu . On D, the Ducks return five starters led by CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, a PreSeason All American and All PAC 12 LB, Tony Shaw. The two teams that beat the Ducks in 2013 come-a-calling, Arizona (42-16) on October 2nd, & Stanford (26-20) on November1st. These two games and the game at UCLA on on October 11th will decide Oregon’s fate in 2014 and right or not, go a long way in determining if Helfrich is “the guy’!

2. Stanford: Finally, Stanford lost a “fist fight”! The bullies of the PAC 12 came into the Rose Bowl looking to “beat up” another opponent, but this time it was Big Ten Champ, Michigan State, who were every bit as physical as the bad boys from Northern California . The Spartans beat the Cardinal, 24-20, in arguably, the most physical contest in all of 2013! Stanford returns 11 starters, 4 on offense & 7 on defense. Kevin Hogan is back at QB, where he has won 16 of his 19 starts and is a remarkable 10-1 against ranked teams. WR Ty Montgomery (61 catches, 958 yards, & 10 TDs) will lead a talented group which includes, Devon Cajuste & Michael Rector both deep threats. The RB position & O-line (4 of 5 are gone, although All American Tackle, Andrus Peat is back) will have to be rebuilt in 2014. The defense returns seven starters and will have to preform well early as the face USC, @ Washington, and at Notre Dame in their first six games. This will allow the young talent on offense to gain the needed experience to compete for a North Division Title. As difficult as the early schedule is, it will get tougher as the Cardinal will have to play @ both Oregon & UCLA in the second half of the season. Stanford’s defense has playmakers at each of the three levels, DE Henry Anderson & DT David Party, at LB, A.J Tarpley and CB Alex Carder. They will have to dominate early for the Cardinal to be in North Division race at the end!

3. Washington: Chris Petersen was 84-9 @ Boise going into 2013, when he went 8-5, those 5 losses were more than he had in the previous 4 years. From 2009 through the 2012 season, his Bronco Teams went 13-0 in 2009; in 2010, 12-1; did the same thing in 2011, 12-1; & in 2012, BSU went 11-2 … a total of 4 losses in the same # of years! The best record in all of college football during that time frame! Petersen inherents a Huskie team that went 9-4 in 2013 and returns 14 starters, 7 on each side of the ball. Peterson will have to replace QB Keith Price & RB Bishop Sankey, a task made easier as all 5 of the starters on the offensive line return. The defense is the strength of this team, on the D-Line, Danny Shelton will be 1st team All-PAC 12 and is getting Preseason All American recognition. LB, Shaq Thompson is one of the best backers in the country and will likely end up 1st Team All American & CB Marcus Peters will lead a secondary that will have three new faces! Washington should enter week 5 unbeaten @ 4-0 and set for Coach Petersen first major  test … as Stanford comes-a-calling to Husky Stadium!

4. Oregon State: The Beavers enter 2014 led by one of the best coaches in all of college football, Mike Riley and one of the best QB’s in the country, Sean Mannion. That said, amazingly, Mannion is the 3rd best QB in the Pac 12 (Oregon’s Marcus Mariota & UCLA’s Brett Hundley are better) . This fact clearly speaks to the strength of the PAC 12 at the QB position. Two other standouts on offense are TE, Connor Hamlett & Center, Isaac Seumalo and both are ready to up grade their very good 2013 season’s. The defense features three returning starters @ LB, Dylan Wynn, D. J. Alexander, & Jabrel Johnson and an experienced secondary that also returns three starters! OSU first big test will come on September 27, when they travel south to LA to take on the Trojans in the Coliseum! OSU’s success in 2014 is clearly related to their opponents ability to stop Mannion, as he is the type of player whose decision making will not beat himself!

5. Washington State: Mike Leach’s team in year two should be fun to watch, as he has orchestrated a very quick “about face” in Pullman during year one! In the last four years the Cougars were 10-38 and had not been to a bowl game since 2003. Leach changed all of this in one year, going 6-6 and getting his team to the New Mexico Bowl. While WSU lost a wild one Colorado State 48 to 45, the fact is it took all of one year for Leach to bring back respectability. He returns 12 starters, 6 on each side of the ball including his QB, Connor Halliday. Washington State’s turn around was more related to Leach’s system than to star power on their roster. Leach will need to continue to add players that fit his system to get much beyond the 6 win total he achieved in 2013!

6. California: Sonny Dykes has not found California to be the Sunshine State, more like a rainy night in Georgia. Sonny is singing the Blues after going 1-11 in his first season in Berkeley. Their lone win was a, 37-30, nail biter against Portland State, a FCS team from the Big Sky Conference! Dykes’ defense gave up 44 or more points in 9 of their 12 games. The 1-11 record is actually worse than it looks as none of the loses were close. Cal returns 10 starters, 6 on offense & 4 on defense! The attitude in spring camp was simple, we have to and we will get better. I don’t think getting better is a problem as it may not be possible to get worse! Dykes’ staff will need to continue to build their roster within the talent rich California base, selling the idea to youngsters that “you can come here and play right away” should not be a problem! I, for one, am interested to see how the Golden Bears respond in Sonny’s second year!

Up Next: PAC 12 South Division

Posted in California, Oregon, Oregon State, PAC 12, Stanford, Washington, Washington State |

Big Ten West Division Sneak Preview 2014

Big Ten Conference

West Division

1. Wisconsin: The Badgers return only 8 starters (3 on defense) from a year ago, are shaky at QB, and open the season @ Reliant Stadium in Houston TX against perennial SEC West power, LSU. So it begs the question, why rank them so high in the preseason with so many unknowns?  First of all, their schedule in favorable, they play the team with the best roster in their division, Nebraska, in Madison, they avoid the 4 best teams in the East Division, OSU, MSU, Michigan, & PSU (Nebraska does not …  they play @ MSU), and Wisconsin plays the two weakest teams in the Big Ten, Rutgers & Purdue on the road! On paper, it is always an advantage to play the better teams at home and the weaker teams out of town! If things go according to Hoyle, the Badger’s post-season landing site will come down to the Iowa game on November 22, in Iowa City. A win there and Wisconsin will be headed back to Indianapolis to battle OSU for the Big Ten Championship. That covered, the Badgers may have the best tandem of running backs in the country, Melvin Gordon & Corey Clement. The O-Line is solid once again, led by All-Big Ten, Rob Havenstein (6’8” 327) while the other four members of the Line started at least 5 games in 2013. That leads us to the unknowns, how will Stave play and which of the WR/TE will step up, the 3 receivers who caught the most passes in 2013 all departed? These questions need to be answered positively for the Badgers to get to Indiana in early December! The defense is making a fundamental paradigm shift under 2nd year coach Anderson, the Badgers are moving away from size and toward speed. The focus is to get big plays on D, turnovers, Sacks, & tackles for loss as opposed to controlling the LOS on the early downs to force 3rd and long. That said, the front 7 is brand new and most can run, yet some remnants of the old regime, big but slow, remain for 2014. The secondary returns 3 of 4 starters & should benefit from the new philosophy of generating heat in the offensive backfield!

2. Nebraska: Gone is that “funky’ throwing motion of Taylor Martinez, I, for one, will miss watching him “shot put” the ball down the field. It was baffling as to how a guy could be as great an athlete as Martinez was and not develop a more fluid throwing motion. This discrepancy (Martinez the athlete vs Martinez the passer) may have been the best example in all of college football of the difference between athletic talent and skill development. Enter Tommy Armstrong, oh no, Tommy looks a little like Taylor, great on the option as a runner, but not so much of a threat throwing the ball. Last year Armstrong threw 9 TDs to 8 INT, not the minimum 2 to 1, TD to INT, ratio coaches are looking for from their QB! He must improve his throwing skills if the Huskers are to challenge the Badgers for the top spot in the West! Ameer Abdullah rushed for 1690 on 281 attempts and scored 9 TDs (Note: Wisconsin’s Gordon rushed for 1609 on 206 attempts and scored 12 TDs). It will be interesting to compare these two guys each week as the head for their showdown in Madison on November 16th. At WR, Kenny Bell is in position to become Nebraska’s all time leading receiver, quiet a feat giving the “knuckle balls” that Martinez threw at him these past years. Former QB turned WR, Jamel Turner can score from anywhere on the field given his speed, he has been plagued by injury, so … if this guy gets healthy, well … the Defenses better know where he’s lined up! Jake Cotton will lead a rebuilt O-Line in 2014. The defense, led by All-America, DE Randy Gregory (6’6” 245) & All-Big Ten, Safety Corey Cooper (6’1” 215) will be the strength of this team. The Huskers road to the West Championship is trough Madison and to make matters more difficult, they will be detoured to East Lansing, to face the Spartans. The Badgers and Huskers are really close on paper, the Wisconsin / Nebraska game being played in Madison and Nebraska having to play @ MSU is why they are second and not first in Sully’s CFP preseason picks in the West!

3. Iowa: The Hawks are the most dangerous team in the west, last year’s win over Nebraska, 38-17 and their very good showing against LSU, a 21-14 loss, has this team believing and those who play them worried! Kirk Ferentz is the best teacher of offensive line play in the Big Ten and one of the best in the nation. Giving the talent the Hawks have at running back, Mark Weisman 975 rushing yards, Jordan Canzeri, 481 rushing yards, & Damon Bullock’s 467 yards. The skill level of these backs coupled with Ferentz’ knowledge of line play suggests that Iowa’s running game will be one of the best in the Big Ten! QB Jake Rudock passed for 2,383 yards, 19 TDs, & 13 INT. Rudock’s biggest flaw and one that needs addressing in 2014 is his tendency to predetermine targets & force the ball into coverage. The O-Line is led by Preseason All-American, LT Brandon Scherff. The strength of the defense is up front with DTs Carl Davis & Louis Trinca-Pasat. The Hawks also return DE Drew Ott, CB Desmond King, & SS John Lowdermilk! Like the Badgers, the Hawks avoid OSU, MSU, PSU, & Michigan in their divisional crossover games! Iowa’s season should come down to the final 2 weeks, at home vs Wisconsin and a date in Lincoln, on the Friday after Thanksgiving! If Iowa gets to that point in the season near or tied at the top of the West Division, all bets are off, as the Hawks, not the Badgers or Huskers, could rule in the West!

4. Minnesota: Jerry Kill is one of the best stories in all of college football and I am not referring to his heroic battles with epilepsy, but rather his rise through the coaching ranks as a head coach not as an assistant. Most of the the guys who land big time jobs have assisted at a major school along the way up, not Kill. He has worked his way up the ladder as the “guy in charge”, not an OC or DC. Kill began his Head Coaching Jobs @ Saginaw Valley State, where he went 38-14 from 1994 to 1998, he then accepted a position at Emporia State leading the Hornets to an 11-11 record in two seasons. In 2001 Southern Illinois offered Kill the head coaching job, he stayed @ Southern for the next 8 years, going 55-32, however, it should be noted; he was 50-14 the last six seasons at SIU. Next he was offered and accepted the Northern Illinois position in 2008, he compiled a record of 23-16 in three seasons. In 2011, Minnesota offed Kill an opportunity to coach in the Big Ten and he has improved the team’s record in each of the past three years, 3-9 in 2011, 6-7 in 2012, & 8-5 in 2013. Minnesota will be better in 2014 but so is the schedule, at TCU in a non conference tilt, the divisional crossover games are against OSU at home & @ Michigan, and the Gophers end their season against the two best teams in the West Division, Nebraska & Wisconsin … both on the road. In fact, the Gophers play Iowa, OSU, Nebraska, & Wisconsin in the last four weeks of their 2014 season. Kill’s team returns 14 starters from an 8-5 team a year ago and they will be a better football team… but their record may not be, based on this schedule!

5. Northwestern: This team started their season 4-0 and played well in their 5th game, at home, against OSU. NU actually had a chance to win the game in the 4th quarter, before falling short, 40-30. The final score is/was skewed, OSU was up 34-30 with seconds remaining and scored their final points with no time left on the clock, after picking up a fumbled lateral as the NU players were desperately trying to get the ball up the field! The Wildcats then lost the next 6 games before righting the ship against Illinois in the final week of the season, finishing at 5-7, after a 4-0 start! So what went wrong? Fair or not, one can not help but wonder what the impact was of all that talk & later vote about/to unionize college football players, had on the team’s focus. I know that Coach Fitzgerald says that the team remained “tuned in” to the work at hand, but given all the controversy and conversation about “pay for play”, “the devaluation of education”, “already paid with an academic scholarship”, “the NCAA does not care about the welfare of the players who are making all this money for them” and on & on & on! One has to think it was not only a distraction, but a major obstacle. The simple truth was  that NU’s 2013 story was not about what was going wrong on the field, but rather how would they vote, to unionize or not! Northwestern returns 16 starters from last year’s team, clearly a good thing, yet it should be noted; their non-conference schedule is better. They play Cal again and they travel to South Bend to take on the Irish. The get both Wisconsin & Nebraska at home, and take on PSU in Happy Valley & Michigan in their divisional crossover games. If I were Fitzgerald, I would get the results of that vote (still not known how the players voted)) out for public consumption long before the August 30th kick-off against California. Northwestern needs to get this union talk in its rear view mirror and get back to winning some football games!

6. Illinois: The Illini return 14 starters from a team that went 4-8 last year and won only one game in the Big Ten. Tim Beckman has had his share of problems at Illinois, everything from a dismal 6-18 record since his arrival in Champaign, to being caught on national TV, during the Wisconsin game, putting a chew into his mouth, to raving about how his wife’s cooking will help his recruiting. What? While Coach Beckman has had an interesting two years, hopefully, for the Illini fan base, things will go a little better this year for their team’s on field results.  The arrival of QB Wes Lunt from Oklahoma State is a great place to start. This guy won the starting QB job, at Oklahoma State, as a true freshman, has a cannon for an arm and an extremely quick release of the ball on his passes. His decision making in the spring was the thing that most impressed the coaches. Starting running back, Josh Ferguson, from Joliet Catholic Academy, led the team in rushing , 779 yards @ 5.5 YPC and was the second on the team in receptions. The receivers are all new, but look like they can play. Lunt can certainly get them the ball and with four of the five O-Linemen back, the run game and time to throw should be positive factors in helping the receivers learning curve. Last year, the defense was bad, real bad, so is returning 8 starters a good thing or not? OC, Tim Banks says it is “we will be better, period” Beckman needs to get to a bowl this year, the non conference sets the Illini up for three wins, but the divisional crossover schedule is bad, at OSU and home to PSU. That means they have to find three wins within the West Division, this will be difficult. The question is, how much does Wes Lunt change things in 2014 and beyond?

7. Purdue: Darrell Hazell made a change at the midpoint of the 2013 season by inserting Danny Etling into the QB position. Etling was ranked 175th best player in ESPN Top 300 high school prospects and Rivals ranked him as the 9th best pro style QB in the class of 2013. Hazell decided to turn things over to the true freshman and as a result, some positive things occurred. Etling passed for 485 yards against Indiana in a 56 to 36 loss and completed 20 passes in 29 attempts against Illinois. AT RB, Raheem Mostert, won the 60 & 200 meters at the Big Ten indoor track meet, this guy really can fly. Hazell has to figure out ways to get him the ball  in space, as it is unlikely that he will or can be caught in the open field! TE Justin Sinz (Edgar, Wisconsin) is the leading receiver back from 2013 (41 receptions for an 8.3 YPC average) and WR DeAngelo Yancey has big play ability. The O-Line is an area of concern. The D-Line will be better in 2014,  led by Ryan Russell, but questions about the back 7 are everywhere! The Boilers gave up 30 or more points in 9 of their 12 games a year ago, simply to much for their offense to overcome. To make a bowl game this year (6 wins) the Boilers will have to win at least 3 non-conference games and then find away against Northwestern and @ Illinois & Indiana. Hazell knew this would be a tough turnaround, yet he needs to make progress this year in the win total!

Up Next: The PAC 12 North Division

 

Posted in Big Ten, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin |

Big Ten East Division Sneak Preview 2014

The Big Ten Conference:

East Division:

1. Ohio State: If seems unlikely that a team that has gone 24-2 the past two years would be riding a 2 game losing streak, yet that is exactly where the Bucks are, 0-2 in their last 2 games, as they head into the 2014 season! Last year, OSU had one returning starter on their front 7, Ryan Shazier. This year, they return 6 of their front 7 and OSU’s D-Line may be the best in the country. Joes Bosa & Noah Spence are terrific DE and DT, Adolphus Washington is coupled with the best Defensive Lineman the Bucks have, Michael Bennett! The LB crew is led by Joshua Perry, who will replace Shazier, Curtis Grant will hold down the middle LB position as he did a year ago, & newcomer, Doran Lee has shown the toughness and speed required to play the strong side backer! The secondary is led by CB Doran Grant a terrific player with All American potential; yet this unit is the question mark for the Buckeyes. The secondary struggled mightily against the pass in 2013, somewhat of a surprise as the Bucks let the Big Ten in QB sacks. OSU secondary ranked 112th in the Nation against the the pass, allowing 268 yards per game. They were shockingly ranked 11th of 12 in the Big Ten, ahead of only Indiana! On Offense, QB Braxton Miller gives the Bucks a wealth of experience and consistently got his team of to fast starts. Last year, Ohio State outscored their opponents, 229 to 69 in the 1st quarter. OSU will not be as effective an offense in 2014 as they were in 2013, Carlos Hyde and 4 of the starters on the O-Line have moved onto the next level or graduated. Yet, OSU has the best roster in the Big Ten and while lacking experience, they are busting at the seems with talent!

2. Michigan State: MSU has one regret heading into the 2014 schedule, where are the Irish? The Spartans only blemish in 2013 was a, 17-13, lost in South Bend to the Domers, a rematch would clearly be to liking of the “300”, while the Irish, given the Spartan demeanor, are probably OK with taking a year off from going up to East Lancing!  At least, Mark Dantonio had the good sense and class not to accuse ND of “Chick-in-out”, as did his fellow Big Ten coach, Brady Hoke after Notre Dame dropped Michigan from the schedule. MSU has the storied history with ND, not Michigan, as some would like you to believe. Too bad they are not playing, as I would have loved to have had the opportunity to see that game! Michigan State returns 10 starters from a 13-1 team a year ago. On Offense, QB Connor Shaw, who played “lights out” against OSU, 34-24 & Stanford, 24-20 in the Big Ten Championship & the Rose Bowl respectively. RB, Jeremy Langford, who rushed for over 1400 yards and scored 19 TDs and WR, Tony Lippett leads a cast of wide outs, who all seem to have the potential for star power. On the O-Line, LT, Jack Conklin & Center, Jack Allen head a cast that has three others, who had part-time starting experience in 013! Last year the Spartan D ranked in the top three of the four major categories on defense. While they lost 6 players on that side of the ball, defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi insists they have the talent to pick up right where they left off in 2013. MSU’s D is led by DEs Shilique Calhoun & Marcus Rush up front, the Spartans feature Taiwan Jones @ MLB, & DBs, Trae Waynes at Corner & Kurtis Drummond @ Free Safety! MSU will challenge OSU for the top spot in the East and the Spartans do get the Bucks @ Spartan Stadium on November 8th! This game will decide who wins the East, at least on paper in early June!

3. Michigan: The Wolverines return 15 starters in a year that Brady Hoke needs to show that he has Michigan on the path to past glory. Hoke went 11-2 and won a BCS Bowl Game in his first season at Michigan, since then, he has been 8-5 and 7-6 last year. Fair or not, 11-2 is what is expected at Michigan and 15-11 will get you shown the door. On offense, Devin Gardner returns at QB, sadly with his 3rd offensive coordinator in three years. Make up your mind Bardy, this time its Doug Nussmeier, the OC @ Alabama in 2013. Gardner passed for over 2900 yards and 21 TDs last season, but he threw to many INT, 11 to be exact! If Gardner falters, sophomore QB Shane Morris is in the wings. At RB, Friz Toussaint will be replaced by a committee of  three, Derrick Green, Justice Hayes, & DeVeon Smith. In 2013 they rushed for a combined 393 on 111 carries; clearly, they will need to do better. Especially Green, who was the top running back in his signing class . WR Devin Funchess is a preseason All-Big Ten pick and should be a difference maker for Michigan in 2014! The defense is led by LB’s, Jake Ryan, James Ross, & Desmond Morgan all three started a year ago and may be the Big Ten best unit at this position. Five star recruit, Jabrill Peppers, is expected to start immediately at Safety or CB. This guy has receive more press coverage that the rest of the team combined, some believe Peppers has created more interest & conversation than any other incoming player in Michigan history. This guy should be fun to watch!! The D-Line will be solid as 3 of the 4 starters return, DEs Frank Clark & Brennen Beyer, and DT Willie Henry.

4. Penn State: The only reason that PSU is 4th and not 3rd is because their game with Michigan is in Ann Arbor. James Franklin, now the head coach at PSU, won in the SEC at Vanderbilt, let me say again, Franklin won 9 games in each of the past two seasons in the SEC at Vandy! Say What!? His teams beat the likes of Georgia, Florida, Missouri, & Tennessee.  Now @ Penn State, his access to facilities, recruitment of players, and national recognition to/for his program has just grown exponentially. Yet right now, while Penn State has really good players, they simply don’t have enough of them! The NCAA had to make a decision last fall, let the Lions fall into football oblivion or give them some relief on the number of scholarships they could offer. That determination, to reduce scholarships penalties, by the NCAA meant that PSU will recover, if they would have denied Penn State’s request for reduction of penalty, the Nittany Lions would not have been able to field a FBS team in 2015. Penn State has only 3 starters back on offense, QB Christian Hackenberg, LT Donovan Smith, & TE Jesse James. Hackenberg added 15 pounds of muscle in the off season, his measurables are now 6’4” & 234 pounds. In 2013 as a true freshman, he broke 11 schools records, passing for 2,955 & 20 TDs!. Franklin has to find a way with limited resources to build around this guy. Oh yeah, he’s done that at vanderbilt! On defense, the Loins return 6 starters, led by LB Mike Hull, CB Jordan Lucas, SS Adrian Amos! PSU enters the 2014 campaign with one hand tied behind their back do to lack of numbers. Still Franklin & Hackenberg may find a way, using their free hand, to stand you up and drop kick you right out of the stadium!

5. Maryland: The Terrapins return the second most starters of any Big Ten Team at 16, 7 on offense & 9 on defense. Randy Edsall has two of the most explosive players in the Big Ten, both receivers, Stefon Diggs & Deon Long. If these guys get in space, its lights out, as they both can fly! At RB Wes Brown returns from suspension while Brandon Ross, who rushed for 776 yards last year will create depth at running back. QB C.J. Brown is a true duel threat, he became the first player in Maryland history to pass for over 2,000 yards while rushing for more than 500. One could not help but notice that while Maryland returned 9 starters on defense, they went unrecognized by preseason All Big Ten selections. On paper, this unit looks really good at all three levels; D-Line (NT Darius Kilgo, DEs Andre Monroe & Quinton Jefferson) LB ( Cole Farrand & I.A. Goree), & DB (CBs Jeremiah Johnson & William Likely). If Maryland stays healthy, they could be the biggest surprise in all of college football in 2014!

6. Indiana: Its time for kevin Wilson to get the Hoosiers to a bowl game and with the most starters of any Big Ten team, 17, it’s really now or never for Wilson. This comment seems unfair, as it is a fact, that Wilson’s program has gotten better in each of his three years; 1-11 in 2011, 4-8 in 2012, & 5-7 last year. Still, he has to find his way to a bowl game in year 4 (to do so; IU must win 6 games) or there may not be a year five! The key is the defense, in 2013, they gave up 35 or more points 10 times. This give new meaning to putting pressure on you offense. Yet, the truth is …  the O responded, scoring 35 or more points in 8 of their 12 games. In 2014, the non-conference schedule includes Indiana State, @ Bowling Green (MAC Champ), @ Missouri & North Texas. IU must win three of these games (four NC wins would get them to a bowl game … in my opinion… but Missouri may be to talented) and then find a way against 3 of their 8 Big Ten Opponents. I believe Indiana is better than Purdue & Rutgers, but after that comes Maryland, @ Iowa, MSU,  @ Michigan, PSU, & @ OSU. So where do the Hoosiers get that 6th win? Indiana will be fun to watch this season, by the numbers it’s 17 starters trying to get 6 wins in 2014 and earn their first bowl game since 2007!

7. Rutgers: Kyle Flood’s team has a solid number of returning starters, 14, from the 2013 team, 9 on offense & 5 on defense. The Scarlet Knights QB, Gary Nova was wildly inconsistent last year 18 TDs & 14 INT. This ratio will not win games and Nova, who lost his job last year for the final three games may not be the starter in the fall. If redshirt freshmen, Chris Laviano continues to develop, he may be the guy in Piscataway. TE Tyler Kroft will be on of the best players at that position in the Big Ten in 2014 while LG Caleb Johnson will play on Sunday’s! The Defense will feature LB Steve Longa as it adjust from play in the AAC to the much tougher brand of Big Ten Football. It is likely that Rutgers will be a better team in 2014 than they were in 2013, it is also likely, do to the tougher competition, that they will not make a bowl game for the first time since 2010 and for only the second time since the 20o4 season!

Up Next Big Ten West Division

Posted in Big Ten, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State |

Big 12 Sneak Preview 2014

Big 12 Conference

1. Oklahoma: To say that Oklahoma surprised the college football world by hammering Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, 45-31 might be the biggest under statement in all of college football in 2013. Bob Stoops basically shouted that the SEC was a top heavy league and sited facts to back up those comments. Facts aside, everyone was predicting that the Tide would drown the Sooners in a sea of Sugar for speaking what amounted to heresy in SEC Country. As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friend”, enter Trevor Knight, Oklahoma’s QB, who passed for 348 yards & 4 TD’s while a determined OU defense forced 5 Alabama turnovers. OU closed their 2013 season with 4 straight wins, beating Kansas State, Oklahoma State, & Bama in the Sugar Bowl. While many of the offensive players who were critical to last years success are gone, the Sooners have enough talent to simply “reload” offensively as they prepare for the 2014 season. They recruited three receivers, Mark Andrews 6’6”, Dallis Todd 6’5” & Jeffery Mead 6’6” the tallest receiver class in the country and two terrific running backs, Joe Mixon & Samaje Perine. On the defensive side of the ball, 9 starters return for the 2014 campaign led by All-American LB, Eric Striker & All ACC DB, Zach Sanchez.

2. Baylor: Art Briles is now a household word in college football, his teams in the past three years have gone 29-10, beat Oklahoma & Texas 2 of the last 3 times they have played, won 2 of 3 bowl games, and produced a Heisman Trophy winner in RG3. No one was expecting this kind of success for Baylor back in 2010, that is, no one except Art Briles. This guy can flat out coach! The Bears return several ALL-Big 12 preseason picks, QB, Bryce Perry, RB Shock Linwood, WR Antwan Goodley & Tackle Spencer Drango (back surgery in the off season). Briles offense scored 50 or more points 7 times (69 or more 5 times) in 2013 and do not appear to be slowing down, The defense returns 4 starters led by LB Bryce Hagar & DT Andrew Billings. Last year this unit gave up 24 points per game while their offense was racking up 52 PPG!  Baylor’s D Coordinator, Phil Bennett, will have to reconstruct this unit and prepare them for sudden change, as the Bears offense can score from anywhere on the field and do so quickly!

3. Texas: The Charlie Strong Era begins @ Texas!  The good news, well it is for the Longhorns, Charlie is really a very good coach, the bad news, well that’s for Charlie, his Era begins with an injury prone QB, literally from head to toe (a history of concussions & foot surgery in the spring) in David Ash and an O-Line that lost 3 of its five starters from a year ago! RB Malcolm Brown is one of the Nations best and Jaxon Shipley leads a talented grouped of receivers, who simply need someone @ QB, who can get them the ball! On Defense, Texas will feature one of the best D-Lines in the country; DE Cedric Reed & DTs Malcolm Brown & Desmond “Tank” Jackson can all play @ a high level. Jordan Hicks is the Longhorns best LB, but he needs to stay on the field …  as he has been injury prone the past two years. The D-Backs have quickness & speed to burn, but have not achieved in relationship to their talent. The DBs need to step up if Texas is to challenge OU & Baylor for the top spot in the Big 12 Conference standings!

4. Oklahoma State: The bad news for Mike Gundy is his team opens the 2014 season at Arlington, Texas’ AT&T Stadium against the defending National Champions, Florida State. The worst news is Gundy only returns 8 starters from 2013 team (4 on Defense & 4 on Offense compared to FSU’s 13) and questions about who will start at QB, although J.W. Walsh seemed to step up during Spring Camp. The O-Line should get back its two starting tackles, Devin Davis & Brandon Garrett while the starting guards, Daniel Koenig & Chris Grisbhy are both back. RB Desmond is one of the best in the Big 12 and the WR position, while unproven, may be the position that has the most talent on the entire roster. Watch for Junior College transfer, Tyreek Hill, a receiver/running back highbred, who has world class speed, this guy should be fun to watch. OSU defense led the Big 12 in scoring D, allowing a mere 22 point per game in the score happy Big 12! Defensive Coordinator, Glenn Spencer, lost 7 starters from a year ago and has his work cut out for him in trying to contain the likes of OU, Baylor, Texas and so on; so he won’t, his defensive philosophy is to attack the offense, not contain it! The strength of OSU D is upfront, with DE Jimmy Bean & DT James Castleman, the rest of the defense will need to be rebuilt!

5. Kansas State: Bill Snyder is arguably the best coach in all of college football. He seems to do more with less than any of his peers and he does it year in & year out. In 2013, KSU opened the season with a loss @ home, to FCS power, North Dakota State 24-21, a shocker I must say was predicted by Sully’s College Football Page! The Wildcats closed the 2013 season by winning 6 of its last 7 games, including a win over Michigan, 31-14, in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. This season the “Cats” return 6 starters on offense, including QB Jake Waters, WRs Tyler Lockett (one of the best play makers in the country) & Curry Sexton, as well as, TE Zach Trujillo. While the O-Line should be solid, the real question for KSU is at RB , DeMarcus Robinson, Jarvis Leverett, & Charles Jones will battle for playing time. On defense, DE Ryan Mueller, a former walk on led the team with 11.5 tackles per game. This defense has 5 returning starters and while more talented than the 2013 addition, it lacks experience and will look to Mueller for the needed leadership in the early part of the season. KSU opens against Sam Houston on August 30, travels to Iowa State on September 6, a bye week, and then on September 18, they Welcome the high powered offense of the Auburn Tigers to Bill Synder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas.

6. Texas Tech: Kliff Kingsbury got of to a great start a year ago winning his first seven games as the Red Raiders head coach. He then took his undefeated squad to Norman, Oklahoma, where they lost their first game of the year 38-30 to the Sooners. Kingsbury’s team would go on to lose 5 in a row, counting the Oklahoma Game, before shocking Arizona state in the Holiday Bowl, 37-23! The 2014 team brings back 7 starters on offense and 3 on defense. Davis Webb will start at QB based on his performance in the Holiday Bowl in which he demolished a very good ASU defense, by passing for 403 passing yards. The O-Line returns 4 of the 5 starters while running back, Kenny Williams, the team’s leading rusher in 2013 was moved to defense, meaning DeAndre Washington will start at Tailback! The defense will need JC transfers to pick up Raider schemes quickly as they will be needed to fill some of the 8 open spots. This unit will be a work in progress but will need to step up by September 13 as Arkansas comes a calling followed by a trip to Oklahoma State on the 25th of September.

7. TCU: Bill King, the Satellite Radio guru on college football has often said he believes that Utah is in the wrong conference; he thinks the Utes should be in the Mountain West not the PAC 12! I wonder if he feels that same way about TCU? From 2009 through 2011 the Horned Frogs were 35-4 as members of the Mountain West and posting a 22-1 record in the MWC! Since joining the Big 12 (2012 & 13 seasons) TCU is 11-14 overall and 6-12 in conference play, including a 2-7 conference record in 013! They return only 3 starters on offense, all three are interior lineman. This translates to all new personnel at the skilled positions, QB, RB, & WR! The defense is a much different story, as they return DT Chucky Hunter, DE Devonte Fields and 3 starters from one of the best secondaries in the Big 12, Safeties Sam Carter, Chris Hackett & DB Kevin White. If TCU is to get back to its winning ways, the offense must play better!  The Frogs lost 4 games last year by a total of 11 points and two other by 10 in which the defense put the offense in position to win late in the 4th quarter. Gary Patterson has always had really good defenses, clearly this is not enough in the Big 12, as a result, Patterson has hired two offensive co-coordinators for the 2014 season, Doug Meacham & Sonny Cumbie.

8. West Virginia: Talk about deja vu, Dana Holgorsen has the exact same record as Gary Patterson since entering the Big 12, 6-12 in two seasons of conference play and 11-14 overall in that same time frame! TCU and WV have played twice in 012 & 013, WV won in OT in 2013, 30-27 & TCU won in 2012, 39-38 in OT. Identical records, both games between the teams have gone into Overtime, and WV had a similar success story before joining the Big 12! From 2009 through 2011, the Mountaineers were 28-11 overall and 15-6 in the former Big East! West Virginia has 12 returning starters 6 on each side of the ball. While QB Clint Trickett returns he will need to demonstrate that he is completely recovered from his shoulder injury that kept him out of spring practice. RB Cody Clay & WRs Daikiel Shorts & Kevin White are all going to have to come up big for the Mountaineers to get back to their winning ways. An improved defense will be led by Safety Karl Joseph & LB Nick Kwiatkowski. WV Athletic Director, Oliver Luck (Andrew’s dad) issued the dreaded “vote of confidence” for Holgorsen, which means win this year or Bye Bye!

9. Iowa State: Paul Rhodes has won 27 games at ISU in the past 5 years and his teams averaged over 5 wins a season. Under Rhodes the Cyclones have played their way into 3 bowl games (2012, 2011 & 2009) and beat Minnesota in 09, 14-13, in the Insight Bowl!  In 2014, ISU has 15 starters returning, 10 on offense, really 11, when you consider they return 2 QBs with starting experience, Sam Richardson & Grant Rohach. Rhodes has hired former Kansas coach, Mark Mangino, to run the offense, a move that should pay big dividends, given the collective experience of Rhodes & Mangino with the Big 12!. The real concern for the Cyclones is on defense. If ISU is to get to a bowl this season, they must show marked improvement on D. Last year, State ranked 105 of 124 teams in total defense, they surrender 463 yards per game & a whopping 36 PPG! These number need to improve in 2014 if ISU is to improve on its 3 win total from 2013!

10. Kansas: Charlie Weis is in the wrong profession, clearly he knows more about marketing & finance than his NFL resume indicates he knows about offensive football. Coach Charlie is 4 -20 at Kansas in his 2 years on campus, not the kind of record that keeps the coach on the sideline for long. Yet, Weis, who no longer roams the ND sideline is still being paid by the Irish, in fact, it was reported that Charlie made more from Notre Dame (2.1 million), than Brain kelly did (1.5 million) in his 2012 National title run! OH yeah, don’t forget, Charlie was paid 2.5 million by Kansas! So while Charlie’s going 1-11 in Lawrence in 2012, Kelly, the second highest paid coach at ND, finished the 2012 season at 12-1. Charlie may struggle winning college football game, but his bank account is undefeated and then some. Please understand, I am not being critical of Weis (maybe sarcastic… but not critical) I am simply amazed as to how this happened? Who would issue a contract for those kinds of dollars that would not have language that deals with a second salary? Given the nature of coaching in college football, one can infer that there is a real possibility that a coach will leave for a better job (more money), be dismissed (not winning or not winning enough) and then be rehired! Outlining the impact reduction on what the initial contract would have to pay, based on the new agreement, is kind of basic or at least, it seems that way to me! Ok, enough about that, The Jayhawks have 14 starters back, 5 on offense & 9 on defense. Based on those numbers, a realistic goal for Weis’ team in 2014 would be to approach the 500 mark! If he can get his team to 5 or 6 wins in year 3, he is on pace to bring winning football back to Lawrence for the 2015 season and beyond!

Up Next the Big Ten East

Posted in Baylor, Big 12, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia |

ACC Coastal Division Sneak Preview 2014

Atlantic Coast Conference

Coastal Division:

1. Virginia Tech: Frank Beamer’s Team returns 13 starters form last year’s 8-5 squad, 8 on offense and 5 for the defense. Tech’s Offensive Coordinator, Scott Loeffler, will have to replace Logan Thomas, a three year starter at QB with a sophomore signal caller, Brenden Morley or Texas Tech transfer, Michael Brewer. The O-Line, which under performed last year, does brings back 5 players who started at least one game; this experience should help their running attack which averaged only 119 yards per game. Running Backs, Trey Edmund’s (675 rushing yards & 10 TD’s) & freshman Marshawn Williams, should greatly improve their ground game. Finally, all of their top receivers are back, Joshua Stanford, Willie Byrn, & Demitri Knowles all caught 40 or more passes. Defensive Coordinator, Bud Foster is one of the best in the business and he is armed with All American, DT Luther Maddy & an emerging star, Corey Marshall off the edge. While the Linebackers will be “a work in progress”, the secondary is one of the best in the country, CB’s Kendall Fuller (6) & Brandon Facyson (5) had a combined 11 INT last year!

2. Miami: Al Golden stepped into a difficult situation at Miami and it got worse through no fault of his own. That said, he has stayed the course and his team finished with 9 wins last year. The Canes averaged 34 points & 422 yards per game in 2014, but gone is QB, Stephen Morris and his understudy, Ryan Williams, is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season (knee). Duke Johnson, an All American candidate and first team All ACC will lead the way at running back and with three starters back on the O-Line, including 6’6” 302 pound Ereck Flowers, the running game should once again be dynamic. The defense will have to pick it up in 2014, they surrendered 426 yards per game (almost identical to what the Offense gained) last year. They return seven starters, led by LB Denzel Perrymmen and 4 returning starters in a very good secondary. Miami opens the 2014 season at Louisville on September 1st (The Cardinals were in the American Athletic Conference, AAC last year & are now in their 1st year in the Atlantic Coast Conference, ACC), a team that beat them in a 2013 bowl game, 36 to 9! We should know more about the Canes and their improvement on September 2nd!

3. North Carolina: Larry Fedora is entering his 3rd year at UNC (15-10) and he may have the best kept secret outside of ACC circles, that is Running Back, T.J. Logan. While he did not play a lot a year ago many of the opposing ACC coaches are weary of his talent & high in their praise! Marquise Williams should get the nod at QB as he led the Heels to four wins in their last five games in 2013. UNC returns 2 receivers with starting experience, Quinshad Davis & & T.J Thorp, who both have size & speed. The real question for the Tar Heels will be the play of their O-Line, they lost their two best lineman from an under performing group a year ago and may need this year’s experience (2014) to be an effective unit for the 2015 season. The defense should be the best that Coach Fedora has had in his three year’s at UNC. Norkeithus Otis should bring heat from his outside LB position, while nose tackle, Ethan Farmer should be an effective run stopper on the interior. Inside backer, Travis Hughes has one last chance to be the player that his talent has suggested he should be since his arrival in Chapel Hill, while the secondary is talented, skilled, & experienced. The key for UNC in 2014 will be the development of its O-Line, if they mature early, watch out, as their is enough talent ever where else to win the division!

4. Georgia Tech: Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech Head Coach, may have the best, at least the fastest, QB, Justin Thomas, he has in his 6 years as the Yellow Jacket CEO! Thomas has the quickness & speed to be an outstanding triple threat QB, but will need to grow in his ability to read the defense and get the ball in the most advantageous position for the offense.  Put simply, there is not a great deal of experience and/or talent at running back, Wide Out, or on the O-Line. But there is Paul Johnson and his triple threat offense, which can make the average really difficult to handle. On defense, 5 starters return, led by LB, Quayshawn Nealy, a three year starter and rising star, CB, D.J. White. The Key for the “Jackets” in 2014 is clearly the development of Justin Thomas @ QB, if his decision making rivals his talent, G-T will move up in the Coastal Division standings!

5. Duke: The Blue Devils played FSU for the ACC Championship in 2013, if anyone would have predicted that they probably would have done so from a so-called “Funny Farm”.  Duke won 10 games in 2013 and had a combined total of 12 victories  in the three previous seasons. The Blue Devils averaged 33 points per game and 426 yards of total offense while giving up 27 points & 418 YPG. David Cutcliffe’s team did this in spite of often erratic play from QB, Anthony Boone. The Blue Devils return 14 starters from last year’s team, so why does Sully’s College Football Page rank them so low? The simple truth is no one took them seriously in 2013, as Duke lost early games to Georgia Tech, 38-14 & Pitt 58-55, same old Duke we all thought.  After the Tech & Pitt losses, Duke won 8 straight and certainly had FSU attention in the ACC Championship Game, a 45-7, blowout loss to the Seminoles. Texas A&M apparently saw the Florida State game and again, under estimated the Devils, and as a result, A&M barely survived a wild, 52-48, bowl game! Those days of under estimating the Dukies are gone, this year, with Duke having 14 starters returning, they will have everyone attention and will get their A game .. not .. oh yeah, its Duke!

6. Pittsburgh: Paul Chryst can almost say this is his team, only 17 players remain from the mess that started with Dave Wannstedt’s firing & Todd Graham’s leaving on the “Midnight Train to Tempe” left dazed Pitt football players wondering what’s next? First Dave Wannstedt is fired after going 18-8 over his last two years and Graham is hired, he goes 6-7 in his first year …  then out of the blue, he texts his team about his departure to ASU (so much for teary eyed meeting rooms.. just send a text) . Oh Yeah, don’t forget about Mike Hayward, he was Pitt’s coach for 17 days, then fired for a domestic abuse charge (later dismissed), he now works for an oil company in Houston. Enter Chryst from Badger Country, finally Pitt has some stability in its football program, PC has gone 13-13 in his first two years. The Panthers are young, evidenced by the fact that 12 freshmen played large minutes a year ago and should be able to contribute at a higher level. As a result, Pitt will improve on its 7-6 record, That said, Pitt is still young and will need another year to be ready to challenge the “Big Fish” in the Coastal Division!

7. Virginia: Mike London came to Cavaliers from Richmond University, an member of the Colonial Athletic Association that he led to an FCS championship in 2008. Things have heated up for Michael (18-31 over his four years) and he needs to have a significantly better season in 2014 to hold on to his job. Last year, the Cavs stumbled through a 2-10 fiasco, this marked the fewest wins for a Virginia team since 1982 and the first time since 1981 that they failed to win an ACC game. The Non-Conference schedule will not help, as the Cavs take on UCLA (@ home) & are @ BYU, while Louisville & FSU are their ACC crossover divisional games. There is no question as to whether Virginia will be better, they will be, the real question is, will they be good enough for London to keep his job? I, for one hope so, Mike London was a Detective in Richmond, Virginia with the City’s Street Crimes Division when he made the decision to coach. His story has been an uplifting one, hopefully, things turn around for him and his team in 014!

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