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ACC Atlantic Division Sneak Preview 2014

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Sneak Preview by Division

Atlantic Division

1) Florida State: The Seminoles return 13 starters from the 2013 National Championship Team. Seven on offense, including their Quarterback, Heisman winner, Janeis Winston, 4 of 5 offensive lineman (Including Guards, Tre Jackson & Josie Mathias and Tackle, Cameron Erving, all 1st or 2nd Team Preseason All-Americans picks) and All-American receivers, Tight End, Nick O’Leary & Wide Out, Rashad Green will lead an extremely talented offense. The Noles return six player on defense led by All-Americans; Jalen Ramsey DB, Mario Edwards DE and All-ACC preformer, Terrance Smith @ LB. The schedule is favorable, Clemson, Florida & ND at home & and Oklahoma State at a neutral site, Arlington, TX.

2) Clemson: The Tigers return 11 starters from last year’s Orange Bowl champs. Clemson beat Ohio State, 40-35, in a terrific BCS bowl game. The 2014 team has a huge challenge  in maintaining what the 2012 & 2013 squads accomplished in their respective seasons, 11 wins in each of those years. While the roster is deep & talented, it lacts experience on the offensive side of the ball. Gone to the NFL are super stars, Tajh Boyd (QB), & Sammy Watkins (WR), as are outstanding players, Martavis Bryant (WR), & Rod McDowell (RB) .  On defense, All-American, Vic Beasley, may be the best defensive end in the country, while DT, Grady Jarrett & LB Stephone Anthony should both be All-ACC 1st Team on defense. In spite of the star power on D, Clemson does not have the offensive talent or skill to handle FSU, but should be able to hold off all challengers for the second spot in the Atlantic Division.

3) Louisville: Gone are Charlie Strong (LU’s Head Coach to Texas) & Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville’s All American QB to the NFL), that said, back from the coaching dead is Bobby Petrino (Former Head Coach at Louisville, who went 41-9 over a four year time frame) to lead the Cardinals in 2014! Petrino is one of the best offensive coaches in the country and his addition should soften the loss of Strong & Bridgewater. Charlie Strong did recruit well, as evidenced, in last years spring game, where Will Gardner, Bridgewater’s replacement, passed for 542 yards, 4 TD’s and completed 32 of 37 passes. The Cardinals are new to the ACC, last year they competed in the AAC (American Athletic Conference) and will find the competition stronger in their new league. LU returns 11 starters, 7 on offense and 4 on defense, Petrino and these numbers, will be enough to fend off Syracuse, NC State & BC for third, but not enough to knock Clemson out of the second spot!

4) Syracuse: The ‘Cuse’ return 13 starters from a team that went 7-6 in 2013 and avenged, a 2012, regular season loss to Minnesota (17-10) in the Texas Bowl (21-17). This bowl win should give the Orange momentum heading into the 2014 season & coupled with the fact that they have experience on both sides of the ball should earn them a 3-0 record heading into their Notre Dame Game at Rutherford on Saturday, September 27th. The O-Line has four of five starters back and QB, Terrel Hunt will have an imposing target in Ashton Brodyl, (6’3”, 223) @ WR.  The defensive is led by LB Dyshawn Davis & Free Safety, Durell Eskridge. Last year’s defense was hard to figure, holding seven opponents to 17 points or less (including 2 shutouts) and then giving up 48 or more on four occations. The Orange have the roster to fend off NC State & BC for the fourth spot in the Division and should make a Bowl Game run in 2014.  However, it is unlikely that Syracuse will unseat newcomer Louisville for third place in the Atlantic.

5) Boston College: Steve Addizio, BC Head Coach, did one of the best jobs in all of FBS football in 2013 and yet, receive little credit for a masterful job! He led the Eagles from two wins in 2012 to seven in 2013, no small accomplishment with FSU & Clemson in your Division! Gone is Andre Williams, who rushed for more than 2000 yards a year ago as are two of the starters on the O-Line. The QB position will be up for grabs, with Chase Retting, who started a year ago battling with Florida transfer, Tyler Murphy, who was 2-4 on a horrible Gator team (4-8) in 2013. The receivers corps lost their best pass catcher in Alex Amidon, who accounted for over 50% of the teams passing yardage. The defense is steady but not above average in any of the three levels (D-Line, LB, or DB). BC has a solid chance to make another Bowl Game in 2014, but simply does not have the talent to challenge the front runners in the Atlantic Division!

6) NC State: Dave Doeren had a great run at Northern Illinois, but struggled mightly in his first year at NC State. His team finished 3-9 overall and 0-8 in the ACC. This marked the first time since 1959 that the Wolfpack did not win, at least, one conference game. Doeren, will feature Florida transfer, Jacoby Brisette under center, Shadrack Thorton @ Runnig Back and Wide Receiver, Bryan Underwood; all three of these players will all have to come up big, if State is improve in 2014. Doeren is adjusting his defense to a nickle package (5 D-Backs) to counter all of the spreads one sees in the ACC. To say NC State is young is a huge understatement, as the roster has 51 true or redshirt freshmen. Depending on the speed of their youngster’s development, a bowl game is possible as their non-conference schedule is favorable.

7) Wake Forest: Jim Grobe, the former Wake Forest head coach was one of the best kept secrets in all of college football. To be clear, not to his coaching peers, who spoke very highly of Grobe as both a person & coach, yet he remained basically unknown to college football fans across the nation. He led the Demon Deacons to five straight bowl appearance before falling on tougher times of late. As a result, in comes new hire, Dave Clawson, who like, Dave Doeren at NC State, won a MAC Championship and was then hired by an ACC team. While Clawson won his title at Bowling Green, he did so by beating Doeren’s former team, Northern Illinois, 47-27, in the MAC Title Game. Clawson’s task will be a major one as WF had the worst offense in the ACC in 2013, the D was not much better, and culture of losing will need to be addressed immediately! Look for Clawson to have a similar season in 2014 to Doeren’s 2013 experience at NC State!

Next Up: The Coastal Division of the ACC

Posted in ACC, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest |

FBS & FCS Schedules for 2014 are up for your viewing

10 FBS Conferences & 4 Independents: AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, C-USA, IND, MAC, MWC, PAC 12, SBC, & SEC

13 FCS Conferences & 1 Independent: Big Sky, Big South, CAA, IVY League, IND, Mid Eastern, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Pioneer, Southern, Southland & SWAC.

The schedules can be reviewed on the Team or Conference Pages on Sully’s CFP. While the FBS schedules are complete, the FCS remain a work in progress. I will get them up on the site as the various schools complete & post them on their respective sites.

 

 

Posted in AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, C-USA, Colonial Athletic Association, FBS Independents, IVY League, MAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Northeast Conference, Ohio Valley, PAC 12, Patriot League, Pioneer Conference, SEC, Southern Conference, Southland Conference, Sun Belt, SWAC |

AT&T Cotton Bowl 2014 Missouri vs Oklahoma State

Bowl History: The Cotton Bowl was first played in 1937 and has been played annually since its inaugural year! The Bowl was once one of the four major bowls (Sugar, Orange & Rose) today it is a second tier bowl which selects its teams after the BCS Bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose & the BSC National Championship) teams have been placed! The tie-ins are the second place team or highest ranked (if 2 teams are in a BCS Bowl) team from the Big 12 and the 4th highest ranked team out of the SEC (if 2 are in the BCS … the Capital One Bowl gets the third highest ranked team from the SEC) then goes to the Cotton Bowl! The first game played in this series took place on January 1, 1937, 16th ranked TCU beat a 20th ranked Marquette, 16-6! Last year’s game was played January 4, 2012 between Texas A&M and Oklahoma, a game won by Aggies, 41-13! The Cotton Bowl payout is $7,250,000.005

Teams: Oklahoma State  Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record 7-2,  vs Missouri: Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record: 7-2, Divisional Record 5-1 (SEC East Division) 

Bowl Location: Arlington, Texas  … played @ Cowboy Stadium , the seating capacity @ the facility is 80,000. Last year’s game which featured Texas A&M and Oklahoma, was attended by 87,025 an increase of over 7.000 from the 2012 game.

Day, Date & Time: Friday, 1/3/2014  @ 6:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Missouri: beat Georgia, 41-25 & Texas A&M; Oklahoma State; beat Texas, 38-13 & Baylor, 49-17.

Worst Losses:  Missouri: South Carolina 27-24 in OT; Oklahoma State: West Vircinia 31-20

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Oklahoma State -2

Offensive Team Data: Oklahoma State; Total Yards,  432 YPG; Passing Yards,  275 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  157 YPG; Scoring Average,  40 PPG, Turnovers,  1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 92% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 75%

Offensive Team Data: Missouri; Total Yards,  498 YPG; Passing Yards, 240 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 258 YPG; Scoring Average  39 PPG, Turnovers,  1.08 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 86% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 72%

Defensive Team Data: Oklahoma State; Total Yards,  395 YPG; Passing Yards,  248 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  148 YPG; Scoring Average, 20 PPG, Turnovers,  2.33 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 34.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 68% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 41%

Defensive Team Data: Missouri; Total Yards,  389 YPG; Passing Yards,  264 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  125 YPG; Scoring Average,  22 PPG, Turnovers,  2.15 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.5 %; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take OSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what Missouri gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Missouri’s total offense, add it to what Oklahoma Srare gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Missouri …. 440 to 407

Passing Yards: Advantage, OSU …. 261 to 238

Rushing Yards: Advantage, Missouri …. 203 to 146

Scoring: Advantage OSU, ….  30 to 29

Turnovers: Advantage, Missouri … 1.65 to 1.73

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage Missouri, … 41.6% to 35.2%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, OSU… 90% to 77%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage,OSU … 66% to 57%

Individuals to Watch: Oklahoma State: QB Clint Chelf, 1792 passing yards, 15 TD’s, & 6 INT’s  RB Desmond Roland, 160 attempts, 745 rushng yards, & 12 TD’s, & WR Tracy Moore 44 receptions , 638 receiving yards , & y TD’s; Missouri: QB James Franklin, 2255 passing yards, 19 TD’s, & 5 INT’s, RB Henry Josey, 162 rushing attempts, 1074 rushing yards, & 16 TD’s, & WR L’Damian Washington, 47 receptions, 853 receiving yards, 19 TD’s

Sully Says: Big 12 vs SEC … Oklahoma’s hammering of Alabama has open eyes to very different outcomes in these inter-conference battles….  That said Missouri QB play & outstanding receiver corp,  will be a little too much for OSU! Missouri needs no points as they win outright!

Posted in 2013/2014 Bowl Games, Big 12, Missouri, Oklahoma State, SEC |

Allstate Sugar Bowl 2013 Alabama vs Oklahoma

Bowl History: The Sugar Bowl was established in 1935 and along with the Orange  & Sun, is the second oldest bowl behind only the Rose! The first game in this series featured Tulane and Temple, played on January 1,1935. The inaugural game was won by Tulane, 20-14! Last year’s event, the 79th Sugar Bowl, had Louisville outlasting Florida, 33-23. The Conference tie-ins are the SEC (unless the SEC Champion is in the BCS National Championship Game) and an at large selection! The payout for the Sugar Bowl is $17,000,000.00

Teams:  Alabama: Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record 7-1, Divisional Record 5-1 (SEC’s West Division) vs Oklahoma:  Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record: 7-2!

Bowl Location: New Orleans, Louisiana … played @ the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the seating capacity @ the facility is 73,208. Last year’s game which featured Florida and Louisville, was attended by 54,178. the lowest attandance @ the Sugar Bowl since 1939!

Day, Date & Time: Thursday, 1/2/2014 @7:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Alabama: beat LSU 38-17; Oklahoma: beat Oklahoma State 33-24

Worst Losses: Alabama: lost to Auburn, 34-28; Oklahoma, lost to Texas 38-20!

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Alabama -17

Offensive Team Data: Alabama; Total Yards,  447 YPG; Passing Yards,  237 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  210 YPG; Scoring Average,  39 PPG, Turnovers,  1 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Offensive Team Data: Oklahoma ; Total Yards,  423 YPG; Passing Yards, 187 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 236 YPG; Scoring Average  32 PPG, Turnovers,  1.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 39.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 87% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: ; Total Yards,  274 YPG; Passing Yards,  166 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  108 YPG; Scoring Average,  11 PPG, Turnovers,  1.5 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 33.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 64% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 50%

Defensive Team Data: Oklahoma; Total Yards,  336 YPG; Passing Yards,  198 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  138 YPG; Scoring Average,  21 PPG, Turnovers,  1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 32.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 61%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Alabama’s total yards on offense, add it to what Oklahoma gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Oklahoma’s total offense, add it to what Alabama gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Alabama…. 388 to 349

Passing Yards: Advantage, Alabama…. 212 to 175

Rushing Yards: Advantage, Alabama…. 176 to 174

Scoring: Advantage, .Alabama… 30 to 22

Turnovers: Advantage, Alabama… 1.31 to 1.35

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Alabama… 47% to 42%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Alabama… 86% to 76%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Alabama… 65% to 50%

Individuals to Watch: Alabama: QB AJ McCarron. 2676 passing yards, 26 TD’s & 5 INT’s, RB TJ Yeldon, 190 attempts, 1163 rushing yards, & 13 TD’s, & WR Amari Copper, 36 receptions, 615 receiving yards, & 4 TD’s; Oklahoma: QB Blake Bell, 1648 passing yards, 12 TD’s & 5 INT’s, RB Brennan Clay, 158 attempts, 913 rushing yards, & 6 TD’s & RB Jalen Saunders, 56 receptions, 654 receiving yards, & 6 TD’s!

Sully Says: Alabama wins and covers the 17 points!

Posted in 2013/2014 Bowl Games, Alabama, Big 12, Oklahoma, SEC |

Valero Alamo Bowl 2013 Oregan vs Texas

Bowl History: The Valero Alamo Bowl  …. the NCAA certified the Bowl in 1993 and the game has been played annually since that time! The first game in this bowl series took place on December, 31, 1993 … California beat Iowa, 37-3 while last years game featured, Texas and Oregon State, a game won by the Horns (Texas), 31-27! The Alamo Bowl has a great TV following …..  as it has produced 8 of ESPN’s top 20 most watched Bowl Games! Further, the Alamo Bowl has sold out 7 times in its 16 year history … Impressive …. given overall Bowl Attendance the past few years! Finally, the conference tie-ins are Big 12 /PAC 12 & the Bowl Pay out is $3,000,000.00!

Teams: Oregon: Conference Affiliation: PAC 12; Overall Record 10-2, Conference Record 7-2, Divisional Record 4-1 (PAC 12’s North Division) vs …. Texas: Conference Affiliation: Big 12; Overall Record 8-4, Conference Record: 7-2!

Bowl Location: San Antonio, Texas @ the Alamodome, the seating capacity @ the facility is 65,438. Last year’s game which featured Texas and Oregon State, was attended by 65,277 and increase of 21 fans!

Day, Date & Time: Monday, 12/30/2012 @ 5:45 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Texas: beat Oklahoma, 36-20; Oregon: beat UCLA, 42-14

Worst Losses: Texas: BYU 40-21 Oregon: Arizona 42-16

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Oregon -14

Offensive Team Data: Oregon; Total Yards,  586 YPG; Passing Yards, 300 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  269 YPG; Scoring Average,  47 PPG, Turnovers,  1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 69%

Offensive Team Data: Texas; Total Yards,  424 YPG; Passing Yards, 226 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 198 YPG; Scoring Average  31 PPG, Turnovers,  1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Defensive Team Data: Oregon; Total Yards,  386 YPG; Passing Yards,  212 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  174 YPG; Scoring Average,  22 PPG, Turnovers,  2 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 55%

Defensive Team Data: Texas; Total Yards,  402 YPG; Passing Yards,  222 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  180 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  2.17 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 54%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Texas’ total yards on offense, add it to what Oregon gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Oregon’s total offense, add it to what Texas gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Oregon …. 494 to 405

Passing Yards: Advantage, Oregon …. 261 to 219

Rushing Yards: Advantage, Oregon …. 225 to 186

Scoring: Advantage, Oregon …. 37 to 27

Turnovers: Advantage, Texas … 1.84 to 1.96

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Texas … 41.35 to 40.30 

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Texas … 86% to 83.5%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Oregon … 62% to 56%

Individuals to Watch: Oregon: QB Marcus Moriota, 3412 passing yards, 30 TD’s & 4 INT’s, WR Josh Huff, 57 receptions, 1036 receiving yards, & 11 TD’s, RB Bryon Marshall, 155 attempts, 995 rushing yards, & 14TD’s, Texas: QB Case McCoy, 1885 passing yards, 11 TD’s, & 11 INT’s, RB Johnathan Gray, 159 attempts, 780 rushing yards, & 4 TD’s, & WR Mike Davis, 49 receptions, 715 receiving yards, & 8 TD’s

Sully CFP Says: Tonight’s game will have plenty of emotion … most notably, Mack Brown’s last game as Texas’ head coach. This fact will matter … in that Texas will compete to try to send Mack out with a win. This is something (play with fire) that Horns haven’t always done this year. Why it won’t matter is because Marcus Moriota is healthy … Texas will have no answer for this guy.! Oregon wins but will not cover the 14 points!

Posted in 2013/2014 Bowl Games, Big 12, Oregon, PAC 12, Texas |

Music City Bowl 2013 Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech

Bowl History: The Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl  …. the NCAA certified this Bowl in 1998 and the game has been played annually since that time! This Bowl has had a variety of sponsors: American General Life & Accident (1998), homepoint.com (1999), Bridgestone (2003-2007) Gaylord Hotels (2002-2009) & Franklin American Mortgage (2010-present).   The first game in this bowl series took place on December, 29, 1998 … Virginia Tech beat Alabama, 38-7 while last years game featured, Vanderbilt and NC State, a game won by the Commordes (Vandy), 38-24! The conference tie-ins are ACC /SEC & the Bowl Pay out is $3,500,000.00!

Teams: Ole Miss Conference Affiliation: SEC; Overall Record 7-5, Conference Record 3-5, Divisional Record 2-4 (SEC’s West Division) vs Georgia Tech: Conference  Affiliation: ACC; Overall Record 7-5, Conference Record: 5-3, Divisional Record 4-3 (ACC’s Coastal Division) 

Bowl Location:  Nashville, Tennessee … played @ LP Field, the seating capacity @ the facility is 69,143. Last year’s game which featured Vandy and NC State, was attended by 55,801, an increase 0f 593 form last year’s game.

Day, Date & Time: Monday, 12/30/2013 @ 2:15 p.m. CST

Best Win(s): Ole Miss: beat LSU, 27-24; G-Tech:beat Duke, 38-14!

Worst Losses: Ole Miss: Mississippi State, 17-10;  Georgia Tech: Clemson 55-31.

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Ole Miss -3

Offensive Team Data:Georgia Tech ; Total Yards,  434 YPG; Passing Yards,  131 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  304 YPG; Scoring Average,  36 PPG, Turnovers,  1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 53.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 81%

Offensive Team Data: Ole Miss; Total Yards,  464 YPG; Passing Yards, 275 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 189 YPG; Scoring Average 30 PPG, Turnovers,  1.62 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 52.5%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 54%

Defensive Team Data: Georgia Tech; Total Yards,  351 YPG; Passing Yards,  237 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  114 YPG; Scoring Average,  23 PPG, Turnovers,  1.38 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 43.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Defensive Team Data: Ole Miss ; Total Yards,  375 YPG; Passing Yards,  216YPG;  Rushing Yards,  159 YPG; Scoring Average,  24 PPG, Turnovers,  1.62 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 85 % & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take ole Miss’s total yards on offense, add it to what Tech gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Georgia Tech’s total offense, add it to what Ole Miss gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Ole Miss…. 408 to 405

Passing Yards: Advantage, Ole Miss…. 256 t0 174

Rushing Yards: Advantage,G-Tech …. 232 to 152

Scoring: Advantage, G-Tech…. 30 to 27

Turnovers: Advantage, Ole Miss … 1.5 to 1.77

3rd Down Conversions: G-Tech & Ole Miss Advantage, … 47.95% to 47.95%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, G-Tech … 88% to 76%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, G-Tech… 73% to 60%

Individuals to Watch: Georgia Tech: QB Vad lee, 1414 passing yards, 10 TD’s & 9 INT, Ole Miss: QB Bo Wallace, 3090 passing yards, 17 TD’s & 9 INT’s

Sully’s CFP Says: Ole Miss wins & covers!

Posted in 2013/2014 Bowl Games, ACC, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, SEC |

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl 2013 MTSU vs Navy

Bowl History: This bowl was established in 2003 as the PlainsCapital Forth Worth Bowl. The game was played in Fort Worth, Texas from 2003 through 2009, it was then moved to SMU’s Campus (Gerald J. Ford Stadium) for the 2010 & 2011 games and has now moved back to to Fort Worth for the 2012 addition of the bowl. The game was moved from Amon G.  Carter Stadium for those two years because of stadium renovations. The first game in the series was played on December 23, 2003 between Boise State & TCU … Boise won, 34-31. Last year’s game was played on December 29, 2012 … Rice beat Air Force, 33-14! Conference tie-ins are Mountain West & Independents Army & Navy (if bowl eligible & available) and the bowl payout is 1.2 million!

Teams: Navy: Conference Affiliation: Independent; Overall Record 8-4; Middle Tennessee:  Conference Affiliation: C-USA; Overall Record 8-4; Conference Record 6-2, Divisional Record 5-1 (East Division of C-USA)!

Bowl Location: Fort Worth, Texas @ Amon G. Carter Stadium! The stadium seats 32,000 and last year’s attendance @ the Rice /Air Force game was 40,750 and increase of 10,496 over last year’s tilt!!

Day, Date & Time: Monday, 12/30/2013 @ 10:45 a.n. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): MTSU beat Marshall, 51-49; Navy: beat Pitt, 24-21

Worst Losses: MTSU: lost to North Texas 34-7, Navy lost to Duke, 35-7

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Navy -6.5

Offensive Team Data: Navy ; Total Yards,  415 YPG; Passing Yards,  92 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  324 YPG; Scoring Average,  34 PPG, Turnovers,  0.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 50.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 91% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 73%

Offensive Team Data: MTSU ; Total Yards,  415 YPG; Passing Yards, 207 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 207 YPG; Scoring Average  31 PPG, Turnovers,  1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.3 %; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 65% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Defensive Team Data: Navy ; Total Yards,  402 YPG; Passing Yards,  216 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  186 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 71%

Defensive Team Data: MTSU ; Total Yards,  405 YPG; Passing Yards,  219 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  186 YPG; Scoring Average,  27 PPG, Turnovers,  2.58 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 47.2%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 79% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 62%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take MTSU’s total yards on offense, add it to what Navy gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Navy’s total offense, add it to what Middle Tennessee gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Navy…. 410 to 409

Passing Yards: Advantage, MTSU …. 212 to 156

Rushing Yards: Advantage, Navy…. 255 to 197

Scoring: Advantage, .Navy…. 31 to 29

Turnovers: Advantage, .Navy… 1.63 to 1.67

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Navy…. 48.9% to 47.1%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Navy….  85% to 72%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Navy. … 68% to 64%

Individuals to Watch: Navy:  QB Keenan Reynolds, Rushing yards 1260 and 29 TD’s  & passing yards 1038 & 6 TD’s; MTSU: QB Logan Kilgore, 2289 passing yards, 16 TD’s & 11 INT’s.

Sully Says: Navy wins this game!

Posted in 2013/2014 Bowl Games, C-USA, FBS Independents, Middle Tennessee, Navy |

BOWL RESULTS THROUGH 1 / 2 / 2014


CONFERENCE STANDINGS IN BOWL GAME THROUGH 1/1/2014

(BASED ON 30 GAMES)

 

SBC          1-0           ( Sun Belt Conference)

SEC           5-2           (Southern Eastern Conference)

PAC 12    6-3 …..    ( PACIFIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE)

IND.         2-1 …. (Independents)

Big 12      3-2 …. (USES NUMBERS TO PRESENT ’12/TWELVE NOT LETTERS)

MWC     3-3 …. (MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE)

C-USA   3-3 …. (CONFERENCE – UNITED STATES of AMERICA)

AAC       2-2 ….  (AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE …FORMER B. EAST)_

ACC      3-6 …. (ALANTIC COAST CONFERENCE)

B Ten   2-4 …. (USES LETTERS NOT NUMBERS TO PRESENT 10/TEN)

MAC    0-4 …    ( MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE)

 

GAME/CONFERENCE RESULTS THUS FAR….

1. Colorado State 49  Wash. St. 45 …  MWC OUTSCORES PAC 12

2. USC 45  Fresno State 20 …  PAC 12 WHIPS MWC                             

3. Louisiana 24  Tulane 21 … SUN BELT STOPS C-USA

4. San Diego State 49  Buffalo 24  … MWC POUNDS MAC                                      

5. East Carolina 37   Ohio 20 … C-USA HAMMERS MAC      

6.  Oregon State 38  Boise State 23 … PAC 12 HANDLES MWC

7.   Pittsburgh 30  Bowling Green 27 … ACC ESCAPES MAC  

8.   Utah State 21  NIU 14 … MWC WINS VS MAC  

9.   Marshall 31  Maryland 20 … C-USA BEATS ACC 

10. Syracuse 21  Minnesota 17 … ACC SLIPS BY BIG TEN   

11. Washington 31  BYU 16 … PAC 12 OVER AN INDEPENDENT    

12. Notre Dame 29  Rutgers 16 … INDEPENDENT BEATS AAC   

13. North Carolina 39  Cincinnati 17 … ACC STPOS AAC 

14. Louisville 36  Miami 9 … AAC BLASTS ACC  

15. Kansas State 31  Michigan 14 … BIG 12 HUMBLES BIG TEN    

16. Navy 24   Middle Tennessee 6 …. Independent outshines C-USA 

17. Ole Miss 25  Georgia Tech 17 ….      SEC handles little Brother ACC

18.  Oregon 30   Texas 7 ….     PAC 12 whips Big 12

19. Texas Tech 37   Arizona State 23 ….  Big 12 dominates PAC 12

20. Arizona 42  Boston 19 …. PAC 12 Slams ACC

21. UCLA 42  Virginia Tech 12 ….  PAC 12 whips ACC

22. Mississippi 44 Rice 7 ….. SEC hammers C-USA

23. Texas A&M 52  Duke 48 …. SEC escapes ACC

24. Nebraska 24  Georgia 19 ….  Big Ten beats SEC

25. South Carolina 34  Wisconsin 24 ….   SEC beats Big Ten

26. LSU 21  Iowa 14 …. SEC stops Big Ten

27. Michigan State 24 Stanford 20 …. Big Ten escapes PAC 12

28. North Texas 36  UNLV 14 …. C-USA whips MWC

29. Central Florida 52 Baylor …. AAC shocks Big 12

30. Oklahoma 45 Alabama 31 …. Big 12 startles SEC

Posted in 2013/2014 Bowl Games, AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, C-USA, FBS Independents, MAC, Mountain West, PAC 12, SEC, Sun Belt |

Russell Athletic Bowl 2013 Louisiville vs Miami FL

Bowl History: First … let’s start with the many names this Bowl has been known by … a) Sunshine Classic (1990), b) Blockbluster Bowl (1990-93), c) Carquest Bowl (1994 -97), d) MicronPC Bowl (1998),  e) MicronPC.com Bowl (1999-2000),  f) Visit Florida Tangerine Bowl (2001)  g) Mazda Tangerine Bowl (2002-03) & h) Champs Sports Bowl (2004-11)! The present day …   Bowl/Game … was founded in 1990 and has been played annually since that time. The current … official …. name for the Bowl is …. Russell Athletic Bowl! The first game pitted Florida State against Penn State, a game won the by the Seminoles, 24-17, on December 28, 1990! The defending Champion from last year’s game is Va Tech, who beat Rutgers, 13-10, on December 28, 2012! The Bowl conference tie-ins are the AAC & ACC and the Bowl Payout is $2,325,000. 00 as of 2011!

Teams: Louisville Conference Affiliation: AAC; Overall Record 11-1, Conference Record 7-1: ….  vs ….   Miami: Overall Record 9-3 Conference Slate 5-3 Divisional Record 4-2 (Coastal Division)!

Bowl Location: The Russell Athletic Bowl is played in Orlando, Florida! The hosting arena is Citrus Bowl (the Citrus Bowl has hosted the game from 2001 to present  …. Please Note ……  from 1990 to 2000 the bowl was played @ Joe Robbie Stadium /Pro Player Stadium …. which is located in Miami Gardens, Florida). The Citrus Bowl has a seating capacity of 64,438 & last year’s game (2012), played between Rutgers  & Va Tech …. the actual attendance was 48,128 about 10,299 fewer then attended the FSU/ ND game in 2011!

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, 12/28/2013 @ 5:45 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Miami: UNC, 27 to 23 & Georgia Tech, 45-30; Louisville: Houston, 20-13 & Cincinnati, 31-24 in OT

Worst Losses: Miami: Va Tech, 42-24 & Duke, 48-30; Louisiville: UCF, 38-35

Common Opponents: USF: Louisville won 34-3 while Miami won 49-21

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: Louisville -4.5

Offensive Team Data: Louisville ; Total Yards,  453 YPG; Passing Yards,  303 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  150 YPG; Scoring Average,  35 PPG, Turnovers,  0.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 55.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 96% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65%

Offensive Team Data: Miami ; Total Yards, 447 YPG; Passing Yards, 274 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 173 YPG; Scoring Average  36 PPG, Turnovers, 1.75 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 37.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 76% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 69%

Defensive Team Data: Louisville; Total Yards,  258 YPG; Passing Yards,  172 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  87 YPG; Scoring Average,  12 PPG, Turnovers,  2.17  TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 28.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 71% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 49%

Defensive Team Data: Miami; Total Yards,  416 YPG; Passing Yards,  233  YPG;  Rushing Yards,  182 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  2.25 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 40.8%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 82% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 56%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take Louisville’s total yards on offense, add it to what Miami gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Miami’s total offense, add it to what Louisville gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Louisville…. 428 to 352

Passing Yards: Advantage, .Louisville… 259 to 218

Rushing Yards: Advantage,Louisville …. 169 to 135

Scoring: Advantage, Louisville…. 31 to 25

Turnovers: Advantage, Louisville… 1.5 to 1.885

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Louisville… 47.1% to 33.3%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, Louisville… 89% to 74%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage, Louisville… 60.5% to 59%

Individuals to Watch: Louisville: QB Teddy Bridgewater, 3523 passing yards, 28 TD’s & 4 INT’s; Miami: QB Stephen Morris, 2868 passing yards, 21 TD’s & 12 INT’s & WR Allen Hurns, 60 receptions, 1138 receiving yards, & 6 TD’s!

Sully’s CFP Says: Louisville wins and covers to 4.5 points

Posted in 2013/2014 Bowl Games, AAC, ACC, Louisville, Miami FL |

Belk Bowl 2013 UNC vs Cincinnati

Bowl History: This Bowl was first played in 2002, the NCAA certified the Bowl as the Queen City Bowl …. even though it has never been called that …. it remains the Official Name of the bowl! The Queen City Bowl has been known as the Continental Tire Bowl …2002 through 2004 … Meineke  Care Car Bowl …. 2004 – 2010 …. and when Belk took over sponsorship in 2011 …. the Belk Bowl. The Bowl tie-ins are ACC vs Big East! On December 28, 2002, the inaugural game was played between Virginia & West Virginia …. won by Virginia, 48-22! Last year’s game (2012) featured Cincinnati against Duke… Cincy prevailed, 48-34! The Belk Bowl payout is 1.7 million per team!

Teams: UNC: Conference Affiliation: ACC; Overall Record 6-6, Conference Record 4-4  Division Record 2-4 (Coastal Division) vs Cincinnati: Conference Affiliation: AAC; Overall Record 9-3; Conference Record 6-2!

Bowl Location: Charlotte, North Carolina …. Game played at Bank of America Stadium. Stadium Capacity is 73,778 leaving the 2012 attendance of 48,128 a decrease from last year’s crowd by 10.299!

Day, Date & Time: Saturday, 12/28/2013 @ 2:30 p.m. CST

Network: ESPN

Best Win(s): Cincinnati: Houston 24-17; UNC: Boston College34-10

Worst Losses: Cincinnati: Illinois 45-17; UNC:  East Carolina 55-31

Common Opponents: None

Las Vegas Hotsheet Favorite: UNC -2.5

Offensive Team Data: UNC ; Total Yards,  433 YPG; Passing Yards,  282 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  150 YPG; Scoring Average,  33 PPG, Turnovers,  1.46 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.6%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 93% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 64%

Offensive Team Data: Cincinnati ; Total Yards,  479 YPG; Passing Yards, 308YPG;  Rushing Yards, 171 YPG; Scoring Average  34 PPG, Turnovers,  2.23 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 49.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 77% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 68%

Defensive Team Data: UNC ; Total Yards,  410 YPG; Passing Yards,  225 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  185 YPG; Scoring Average,  26 PPG, Turnovers,  2.26  TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 41.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 88% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 57%

Defensive Team Data: Cincinnati; Total Yards,  323 YPG; Passing Yards,  216 YPG;  Rushing Yards,  106 YPG; Scoring Average,  21 PPG, Turnovers,  1.69 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 36.3%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 74% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 48%

Sully’s CFP Game Simulator is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take UNC’s total yards on offense, add it to what Cincy gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking Cincinnati’s total offense, add it to what North Carolina gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage, Cincy …. 445 to 378

Rushing Yards: Advantage, Cincy …. 267 to 249

Rushing: Advantage, Cincy  …. 178 to 128

Scoring: Advantage, Cincy …  30 t0 27

 

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage, Cincy … 45.5% to 38.95%

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage, UNC … 84% to 83%

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage,  Cincy… 63% to 56%

Individuals to Watch: UNC has played the better schedule … Cincy did not play a bowl eligible team until 11/23/13

Sully Says: #’s Do Lie UNC wins and Covers!

Posted in 2013/2014 Bowl Games, AAC, ACC, Cincinnati, North Carolina |