Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Big 12: Week 8

Kansas 1-5  & 0-2  @ Oklahoma 4-1 & 2-1: Kansas has lost seven straight to the Sooners by 14 or more points. Last time the Jayhawks were in Norman was 2008, resulting in a 61-41 loss! Last year, the Sooners hammered the Hawks, 47-17, holding Kansas to 6 total yards in the 2nd half (30 passing & -24 rushing). This could be another long day for HC Charlie Weis and his team!

Baylor 3-2 & 0-2 @ Texas 4-2 & 1-2: Baylor has not enjoyed its trips to Austin, one win & nine losses, but the last time the Bears made the trip, 2010 they won, 30-22! The RG3 lead Baylor attack won last year, as well, 48-24 in Waco! The defense has been terrible for both of these teams … Baylor scored 63 …. & lost … allowing 70, while Texas scored 45 and lost …  giving up 48… the Horns also gave up 63 points to its rival Oklahoma. The first team to get a three and out … may win the game!

Iowa State 4-2 & 1-2  @ Oklahoma State 3-2 & 1-1: The road team has won just once in the last 6 games. Last year, the ISU loss (37-31 in OT) kept the Cowboys out of the national championship game … so the Cyclones had better be ready … as a payback mentality has got to be somewhere in the Okey State psyche! OSU led early in that game, 24-7, but ISU answered with 17 straight and in this rivality, a game for the ages was born!

Kansas State 6-0 & 3-0 @ West Virginia 5-1 & 2-1: These teams have met twice and the young series is tied @ one a piece! That said; the last time they played was in 1931, so nothing to learn from that encounter. This is the Big 12 best game of week 8, featuring two of the leagues best QB’s, Collin Klein (K-State) & Geno Smith (West Virginia). The Mountaineers try to outscore you while the Wildcats try to not let you score … This may well be the most entertaining game of the day!

Texas Tech 5-1 & 2-1 @ TCU 5-2 & 2-1: This is the 55 meeting between these two teams. The first meeting as conference foes since their old days together in the Southwest Conference (SWC).They have played twice as non-conference opponents, 2004, Texas Tech pounded the Frogs 70-35 and in 2006, TCU won, 12-3! Both teams are 2-1 in Conference play… with a common opponent in Iowa State (Tech beat ISU 24-13 @ Ames while TCU lost to the Cyclones, 37-23 @ home)!

 

Posted in Baylor, Big 12, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia |

PAC 12: Week 8

Colorado Overall 1-5 & Conf. 0-3 @ USC 5-1 & 3-1 : The Buffs are 0-6 all time vs USC & the games have not been close with SC winning by an average of 23 PPG! CU has not done well when playing against ranked team either, losing 11 straight by a mean of 29 points! Last year SC trailed 7-0 @ Folson Field before winning easily, 42-17!

Utah 2-4 & 0-3 @ Oregon State 5-0 & 3-0: The Utes have beaten the Beavers 5 of the last 7 but have lost the last two in Corvallis, the most recent being in 2007, a 24-7 defeat at the hands of OSU. Overall, the Beavers still lead the series, 9-6-1 heading into Saturday’s game @ Reser Stadium! OSU is on top of the North Division @ 3-0 in conference play!

Washington 3-3 & 2-2 @ Arizona 3-3 & 0-3: The home team has won the last games in this series. Last time in Arizona, the Huskies jumped out to 7-0 lead and watched as the wildcats out-scored them 44-7 the rest of the way! Coach Rodrigues’ team began the season @ 3-0 & then lost the next 3 games … all in conference play! That said, the last 2 were close games, OSU was a 38-35 defeat & @ Stanford was a 54-48 OT loss.

Arizona State 5-1 & 3-0 @ Oregon 6-0 & 3-0: This is the PAC 12’s feature game as the Sun Devils & Ducks are squaring off in a cross divisional battle of two teams with 3-0 conference records! UO has won the last four times they played in Tucson and all five of the last games played in either stadium! Last year, ASU actually outgained Oregon by 212 yards but was 0 for 7 in penetrations into the Ducks side of the field … in terms of points!

Stanford 4-2 & 2-1 California 3-4 & 2-2: This is 115 meeting of these two Universities and this game has been played without a missed year since 1946! “The Big Game” as it is called is 3-2 over the past five years with Stanford winning three of the last five and two in a row! That said; Cal has won seven of the last ten games … This game is normally played at the end of the season… but with Divisional scheduling has been moved to the 8th week!

UCLA 5-2: … has Bye week … Next up … @ Arizona state

Washington State:  has a Bye Week … next up @ Stanford

Posted in Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, PAC 12, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State |

Sully’s CFP Six Pack of Winners Week 8

Sully’s CFP is currently 25-16 against the Spread!

 

Oregon 6-0 -9 @ Arizona State 5-1: This Thursday’s showdown in the Arizona Desert is going to be more like sun down … as in “turn out the lights” for the Sun Devils. The last two trips the Ducks made to ASU resulted in 54-20 (2008) & 42-31 (201o) wins! This is the best defense that UO has fielded; Oregon’s closest game this year is 17 points and they have beaten Washington by 31 (The Huskies beat Stanford .. while the Cardinal stopped USC) and Arizona, 49-0 (Arizona was undefeated at the time and had scored 115 points in the two weeks prior to Oregon shutting them out) ! Sully says: Take the Ducks and give the 9!

Rutgers 6-0 -4.5 @ Temple 3-2: Temple has won two in a row at home (beat South Florida 37-28 & U-Conn in OT 17-14)  as they prepare for their third straight game in Philadelphia! Rutgers is having its best start in years, 6-0, with an impressive win at @ Arkansas 35-26, and are currently 2-0 in the Big East. The Scarlet Knights have never won the Big East … so motivation & focus is high for this conference game! This Rutgers team is trying to prove something (a Big East Championship … for one) in the post Greg Schiano Era! Sully says: Give the Owls the 4.5 and take Rutgers!  

Stanford 4-2 -2.5 @ California 3-4: Stanford is the best 2 lost team in college football and without question, one of the most physical teams in America! This game is about athleticism (Cal) vs power (Stanford) … Cal has won its last two games (UCLA 43-17 & Washington State 31-17) and this (The Game … as it is called) is a rivalry game … usually a game to be avoided when picking against a spread! That said … the game is earlier then usual (the Bears & Cardinal have played at the end of the season for the past 5 years) and Stanford’s division and conference hopes are on the line as both Oregon & Oregon State are waiting for them at the end of the season! Look for Stanford to play with less emotion and more focus in “The Game”! Sully Says: Give Cal the 2.5 and take Stanford!

South Florida 2-4 @ Louisville 6-0  -7: Charlie Strong has the Cardinals off to their best start in the past five years @ 6-0. Skip Holtz, on the other hand, is off to his worst start in the three years he has been @ USF. There is a ND connection here as both of these coaches had tenure for the Irish as assistants. While Louisville has won several games this year by a touchdown or less … they have found a way in each of these wins! While USF has lost 4 in a row, three by 2 scores or more! Sully’s says: Give the Bulls the 7 and lake Louisville!

Cincinnati 5-0  -7 @ Toledo 6-1: Cincinnati has played the superior schedule and is 4-2 all time vs Toledo. This is an opportunity for the MAC to continue a surprising run of success against AQ conference teams. That said; the surprise is over…. everyone is aware of how well the MAC has doine this year and as a result, Cincy’s focus is sure to be sharp! The Bearcats (Cincinnati) have 9 seniors starting on defense and have allowed 20 or more points only once this season (27-24 win vs Va Tech)! Sully says: Take Cincinnati and give Toledo the 7!

Iowa State 4-2  @ Oklahoma State 3-2  -14: Paul Rhodes has the Cyclones playing their best football in years. ISU’s two losses were hard fought contests vs Texas Tech, 24-13 & Kansas State, 27-21, and they have an impressive win, on the road, over TCU, 37-23! OSU has a bad loss @ Arizona, 59-38 and to a struggling Texas, 41-36! The Cowboys three wins are all against weak competition ( Savannah State, 84-0, Louisiana Lafayette, 65-24, & Kansas 20-14)! Sully says: Take ISU & the 14 points!

 

Check out Head to Head on the site for the Sully’s CFP Simulator to get a statistical analysis of these and other games!

 

 

 

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

 

Posted in #4 Sully's CFP Six Pack of Winners |

Big Ten: Week 8

Minnesota 4-2 & 0-2 @ Wisconsin 5-2 & 2-1: Minnesota has not won in Madison since the 1994 season, dropping 8 straight in Mad Town by an average of 20 points. The Badgers are coming off their best performance of the year, a 38-14 hammering of Purdue in West Lafayette! While the Gophers are trying to bounce back from a deflating losses to Iowa, 31-13 & Northwestern, 21-13!

Purdue 3-3 & 0-2 @ Ohio State 7-0 & 2-0: The Boilers have dropped eight straight to the Bucks (in the Horseshoe) by an average of 22 PPG. Purdue’s last victory in Columbus was in 1988! In 2011, @ Ross-Ade Stadium, in West Lafayette, Purdue won in overtime, 26-23! PU is 4-15 in its last 19 Big Ten away games, while OSU has won 11 of its last 13 Big Ten home games!

Penn State 4-2 & 2-0 @ Iowa 4-2 & 2-0: The Hawks have played winning football @ home vs Nittany Lions; PSU has not won in Iowa City since 1999, dropping four straight by an average of 10 PPG! The last time the Lions traveled to Iowa, 2010, they lost 24-3, their biggest margin of defeat in the series! Both teams are undefeated in conference play, with Iowa having beat Minnesota, 31-13 & MSU, 19 16 in OT, to share the lead in the Legends Division with Michigan!

Indiana 2-4 & 0-3 @ Navy 3-3: Navy is 0-2 vs Indiana with the last meeting in 1986, a game the Hoosiers won, 52-29! This is the Midshipmen’s Homecoming Game, a game in which they have not played well in … 2-4 since 2006!

Nebraska 4-2 & 1-1 @ Northwestern 6-1 & 2-1: Last year NW shocked NU, 28-25, @ Memorial Stadium, in Lincoln, Nebraska. This was the Huskers only Big Ten or non-conference loss at home in 2011, as Nebraska beat OSU, 34-27; MSU, 24-3; & Iowa, 20-7! This year’s tilt is in Evanston @ Ryan Field! The teams played once in Illinois, back in 1931, a Cornhusker victory, 19-7! Last year, the Wildcats were 2-2 on the road and 1-3 at home!

Michigan State 4-3 @ Michigan 4-2: Let’s be clear, MSU is not UM’s “Little Brother” despite what the esteemed Michigan running back, Micheal Hart, proclaimed in 2007 (Michigan’s last victory in the series, 28-24!) This game is a land war, the team rushing for the most yardage has won the battle 39 of the last 42 games! In 2011, the Spartans held the Wolverines to a season low, 82 yards rushing, winning the game 28-14! This is the Big Ten’s best game of week 8, a chance for Michigan to move to 3-0 in the Legends and to knock Michigan State out of the Legend’s race by handing them their 3 loss in Big Ten play!

Illinois 2-5 & 0-3: has a Bye Week … Next up … Indiana @ Home.

Posted in Big Ten, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin |

SEC: Week 8

LSU 6-1 @ Texas A&M 5-1: LSU has lost the last four times they played in College Station; its last visit being in 1995, resulted in a 33-17 defeat. The most recent game played between the teams was the 2010 Cotton Bowl, where the Tigers handled the Aggies, 41-24. Both LSU and Texas A&M are 2-1 in the SEC and a loss on Saturday will eliminate the loser from a shot at the West Division title and a spot in the SEC Championship Game! 

Alabama 6-0 @ Tennessee 3-3: The Tide has rolled over the Volunteers five straight times, including last year’s pounding, 37-6, @ Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa! The Vols have lost 11 straight to ranked teams… and facing off against the #1 team in the country … that pattern is likely to continue through Saturday

Middle Tennessee 3-3  @ Mississippi State 6-0: MSU has had its way with MTSU, winning the four times the teams have played by an average of 22 points. The last time the teams met in Starkville, the Blue Raiders actually had a 16-14 lead in the 3rd quarter, before losing, 31-22. The teams last played in 2009, a 27-6 Mississippi State victory in Murfreeboro @ Red Floyd Stadium!

Auburn 1-5 @ Vanderbilt 2-4: How the mighty have fallen…. Auburn, 2 seasons away from their national championship; have managed only one win … in OT …. against a Sun Belt Team, Louisiana Monroe, 34-31! And worse, in 2008, the last time the Tigers were in Nashville,  they had their 13 game winning streak snapped, 14-13 by Vandy. The good news for the Tigers is that the Commodores have not beaten the Tigers 2 years in a row (@ home or back to back.. any combination) since the 1949-50 seasons!

South Carolina 6-1 @ Florida 6-0: Once again the SEC has the Game of the Week… nothing new about that … this … or any other week! The last time the Gamecocks were in the so called ‘Swamp” ( Phil Fulmer, former Tennessee Coach, who was raised in, on or near a swamp said… “Swamp… this ain’t no Swamp”) they recorded the first victory ever, 36-14, in the Marsh or Wetlands or whatever biome Fulmer thinks appropriate! Other than that win, SC is 0-12 or 1-12 overall at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium!

Georgia 5-1 @ Kentucky 1-6: Every year about this time, Wildcat fans turn their attention to the ball that come back to you when you bounce it … not all those unpredictible angles the oblong ball takes as it hits the ground. Kentucky is 3-18 vs Georgia, their Coach’s job is on life support, and the Bulldawgs have been blasted as soft in their most recent outing against South Carolina, a 35-7 debacle in Columbia! Last time the Dawgs were in Lexington, they won a shootout, 44-31!

Missouri 3-4: has a Bye week … next up Kentucky @ home

Arkansas 3-4: … has a Bye week … Next up …Ole Miss @ Home

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt |

Sully’s College Football Wrap Up Week 7

Up, down, and not yet out

 

What We Learned:

In what ended up being quite an eye opening weekend of college football, the nation got a glimpse of who is for real, and likewise, who is not.  For starters, one needs to look no further than this weeks game in Lobo, where West Virginia showed its greatest weakness: Defense.  The template has already been put in place; the blueprint to winning a national championship already mapped out by the SEC years ago.  To reach the top, defense is king, special teams is the separator, and explosive offense is optional.  All an offense needs to do is quite simple – DO NOT turn the ball over, and when opportunity strikes, score points.  The one exception to this rule in recent memory is Auburn, but besides having the college football equivalent to Super-Man in Cam Newton, Auburn did have Nick Farley, who was an absolute beast that set the line of scrimmage nearly every play on the defensive side of the ball.  With West Virginia, if Gino Smith has an off day, they are not going to play well.  In the past three games they have given up staggering 157 points, which is just not going to get it done.  Meanwhile, teams like LSU, who passed for a modest 148 yards with a 0-1 td/int ratio still manage to defeat excellent teams like South Carolina because they have other options to go to.  They play very good defense, and they set themselves up with good field position on a consistent basis, and most importantly, they win the turnover battle (2-1 last night over South Carolina).  If one has been following our polls in recent weeks, they will see that we never believed in West Virginia as a top 5-10 team, and yesterday is exactly why.  Holgerson is going to do an awesome job in Morgantown, but not until he fixes that defense.   Playing no defense does not get it done through a full college football season.  Just ask Notre Dame and Michigan from a few years ago with Weis and Rich Rod.  Good offenses, but ultimately not contending, or even relevant teams.  The same things can be applied to Texas.  When a team has a defense that cannot get off the field that is coupled with an offense that is prone to either score immediately or go three and out due to passing the ball downfield so often, the likelihood of said defense being not only gassed throughout an individual football game, but breaking down physically as the season progresses is significantly heightened.  There are some exceptions to be sure, but they are far and few between.

Oklahoma is Back and Primed to Stay

We have said this from the beginning of this season: If Landry Jones shows up, Oklahoma will, too.  There is enough athleticism and speed across the board on this team to win big, and not just on offense.  The problem is, they do not always bring it like they are capable of.  Oklahoma, in many respects, is a lot like Florida State in the sense that they are a team that can walk into a stadium on a night with everything.  Speed, power, explosive offense, defense, coaching – you name it, and it is in their arsenal.  Oklahoma seems to always get better under Bob Stoops as the season progresses, but they have fallen all too often to inferior teams due to them not playing with what we see as an edge.  Kansas State is absolutely, unquestionably a good football team. Their QB, Klien, and coach, Synder, are both amongst the best in all of college football, but that still does not make them better than Oklahoma.  To be frank, we do not believe they are.  Yet, they still beat Oklahoma when it counted, and they did it on the road, which highlights exactly what we are talking about here.  Kansas State deserves everything they get this year, because they are absolutely earning it – they may even win out.  However, Oklahoma probably will win out, and by years end we believe they will demonstrate that they still belong in the discussion.

Notre Dame is Getting it Done

In what will undoubtedly be one of the most controversial endings of the 2012 season, Notre Dame held on to beat Stanford in overtime when they stopped the Cardinal offense on four consecutive plays inside the four yard line.  Was it a stop?  It is too close to call for us, but you be the judge

In any case, Notre Dame won, and in doing so, they kept themselves in the picture.  We still do not believe they are a championship team, as we see them losing to Oklahoma in two weeks, but the job Brian Kelly is doing at Notre Dame has to be acknowledged.  The ND program is finally getting its edge back, and for many long time lovers of the game, that is great to see.  Brian Kelly, here is your Sully’s College Football page shout out of the week.  Great job, sir.

Wisconsin is Getting Back to Form, Finally

To go along with the theme of the rest of the Big Ten this season, Wisconsin has been dreadfully under-performing to date.  We understand that they lost Russel Wilson and a huge chunk of their coaching staff, but barely beating a bad (1-5) FCS team like Northern Iowa  is inexcusable for a defending Big Ten champion.  However, yesterday we finally saw the kind of physical, smart football that has led Wisconsin to back to back Big Ten championships when they crushed Purdue by a score of 38-14.  The Badger offensive line pushed around Purdue all day to the tune of 467 yards rushing, despite the fact that Purdue has future NFL prospects Short and Gaston manning the inside of their defensive line.  Such a performance exemplifies what the Badgers have prided themselves on for so long, which is being on the short list of the nations absolute best offensive lines.  In their cruising victory over Purdue, the Badgers are primed to make a run at the Big Ten Championship game.  The Badgers have already smelled the roses, but will they finally drink the water?  Only time will tell.

Interesting Thing of Note: 

The official BCS standings come out tonight, so be sure to set your DVRs and tune in to your TV this evening.  The results should be interesting, especially considering the reports that have surfaced of Florida and Notre Dame being #1 and #2 respective according to the computers.

Our Knee Jerk Reaction

While there was movement in the polls today as a result of Saturday’s game, we are still going to remain patient with how we react to everything.  There is still a lot of season left, and if college football has taught us anything, it is that we know nothing.  Not yet, at least.  Alabama and Oregon is looking pretty good right now in terms of the eventual championship game, but Alabama still has a date with LSU in Death Valley, and Oregon is probably going to have to beat SC twice.  Neither of those tasks are small orders, and there are plenty of really good football teams vying for position as we speak.  With that in mind, keeping an eye on upcoming games like South Carolina @ Florida, or ND @ Oklahoma should be both interesting and worthwhile.  The teams chomping at Alabama and Oregons heels will ultimately be the movers and shakers of this 2012 college football season.

Posted in Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Kansas State, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Purdue, South Carolina, Stanford, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Wisconsin |

Big East: Week 7

Louisville 5-0 @ Pittsburgh 2-3: Pitt has won four straight games vs the Cardinals, 2008, 41-7; 2009, 35-10; 2010, 20-3; & 2011, 21-14. As shown, the average point difference has dwindled in each of the subsequent years from 2007 to 2011. The Panthers have played two FCS opponents this year and are 1-1 against them. Pitt lost to Youngstown State on opening day, 31-17 and then hammered Gardner-Webb, 55-10, in week four! Pitt has also beaten Va Tech, 35-17, at home in week three! Louisville is unbeaten this year with wins over AQ opponents, Kentucky, 32-15 & North Carolina, 39-34. Pitt is 0-1 in Big east Play, losing @ Syracuse, 14-13; this is the Cardinals first conference game!

Syracuse 2-3 @ Rutgers: 5-0: This series has been relatively even with Rutgers winning 3 of the last 5; The Scarlet Knights won in 2007, 38-14; 2008, 35-17; & 2011, 19-16 in OT. While the Orange found a way in 2009, 31-13 & 2110, 13-10! Rutgers is 2-0 in Big East play with a win over Connecticut,19-3 & South Florida, 23-13 meanwhile, Syracuse is 1-0 with a victory over Pitt, 14-13! Rutgers has beaten South Florida 2-4 and Arkansas 2-4, which usually would be impressive wins … but not this year! Syracuse has played the better schedule; USC 4-1, Minnesota 4-1, & Northwestern 5-1!

Temple 2-2 @ Connecticut 3-3: These teams last met in 2010 when Temple was a member of the MAC and playing in its East Division! U-Conn won the game, 30-16, but did not dominate the Owls statistically, 390 to 356 in total yards and turnovers were even at one a piece! Temple is coming off an impressive win over South Florida at home, 37-28, while the Huskies are searching for answers, losing last week to / @ Rutgers, 19-3! U-Conn is 0-1 in Conference play while Temple stands @ 1-0 in the Big East! 

Fordham 4-2 @ Cincinnati 4-0: Cincinnati steps out of the FBS and conference play this week and takes on its second FCS opponent (beat Delaware State 23-7 in week two) of the 2012 season, hosting Fordham! It should be noted that only one FCS win can be counted toward the six required victories to become bowl eligible! Cincy is 1-0 in Big East Play!

South Florida 2-4  0-2: has a Bye Week … next up @ Louisville

Posted in AAC, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple |

PAC 12: Week 7

USC 4-1 @ Washington 3-2: The Trojans are 8-2 vs the Huskies in the last 10 games … but lost the last time they travled north to Centurylink Field, 16-13! Steve Sarkisian was an assistant at USC from 2001-03 & 2005 to 2008, before taking his current HC position @ Washington. Last year, USC beat Washington in the Coliseum, 40-17! USC is 2-1 in conference play (lone loss to Stanford 21-14) while Washington is 1-1 (lone win against Stanford, 17-13)

Utah 2-3 @ UCLA 4-2: The Utes lost the first 8 times they took on the Bruins .. but have won the last two meetings, including last year’s win at Rice-Eccles Stadium, 31-6. UCLA is currently 1-2 in conference play (Beating Colorado 42-14 & losing to Oregon State 27-20 & Cal 43-17), while Utah is 0-2 (Losing to ASU 37-7 & USC 38-28) heading into Saturday contest!

Arizona State 4-1 @ Colorado 1-4: ASU is a perfect 3-0 vs CU and the Sun Devils have made only one trip to Folson Field, in 2006, a 21-3 victory over the Buffs. Colorado is 1-1 in the PAC 12 (beating Washington State 35-34 & losing to UCLA 42-14) while State is 2-0 in league play (winning at Cal 27-17 & at home, 37-7 over Utah)!

Stanford 4-1 @ Notre Dame 5-0: This is the PAC 12’s feature game of week 7! The series has not been kind to the visitor, 4-12 over the last 16 games. Standford has won 3 in a row, including last year’s, 28-14, handling of the Irish! Last time in South Bend, the Cardinal FB/LB Owen Marecic scored 2 TD’s in 13 seconds (one on D and one on O) … really making a significant differnce in the game won by the Cardinal, 37-14! This is the 27th meeting of ND and SU and until 2010, the Irish had never lost back to back games against the Cardinal!

Cal 2-4 @ Washington State 2-4: The Golden Bears have beaten State 7 straight times by an average margin of 21 points. Losing and losing big is nothing new for the Cougars, as they are 6-29 in the PAC 10 -12 since 2004. New Head Coach, Mike Leach, did beat Cal in the in the 2004 Holiday Bowl, 45-31; but that was with one of his Texas Tech teams and the Cougars have a way to go before they resemble a Red Raider team! Cal is 1-2 in conference play with Washington State coming into the game @ 0-3 in the PAC 12!

Oregon State 4-0 @ BYU 4-2: OSU is 1-1 in Provo vs BYU. The Beavers did win the last time they ventured into Levell Edwards Stadium, 10-7, but that was in 1986! Oregon State won last year’s tilt @ home, 38-28, in Reser Stadium. Bronco Mendenhall played for and captined OSU in the mid 1980’s and was on the staff for 89-90 and again in 95-96 seasons! OSU is 3-0 in PAC 12 play!

Arizona 3-3  & 0-3 (PAC 12 play) has a BYE Week … Next up … Washington @ Home!

Oregon 6-0  & 3-0: has a Bye Week … Next up @ Arizona State

Check out Head to Head on the site for the Sully’s CFP Simulator to get a statistical analysis of these and other games!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

Posted in Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, PAC 12, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State |

Sully’s Six Pack of Winners Week 7

West Virginia 5-0 -4 @ Texas Tech 4-1: These teams have not met since 1937 … so nothing to be learned from a recent contest! Oklahoma scored 41 against a Tech defense that looked a step slow in trying to defend the Sooners, meanwhile, TT’s offense turned the ball over three times vs OU pressure. Landry Jones passed for 259 yards and the Sooners D held the Red Raiders’ offense to 88 yards rushing! West Virginia has the best speed in the country, featuring wide outs, Tavon  Austin & Stedman Bailey. Tommy Tuberville’s defense will be overwhelmed by a Mountaineer scoring machine led by QB and early Heisman Trophy front runner, Gino Smith. Sully says: take West Virginia and give the 4 points!

Louisville 5-0  -3 @ Pittsburgh 2-3: The last time Louisville won this game was @ in 2007, 24-17. Pitt has won the last four; 2008, 41-7; 2009, 35-10; 2010, 20-3; & 2011, 21-14.  Sully’s CFP game simulator has Louisville winning 26-23 and the statistical battle 5 to 3. We agree that Louisville wins the game, but will win by 7 to 10 points … not 3! Charlie Strong has it going in Louisville, a 5-0 start to the 2012 season and impressive wins over North Carolina 39-34 and Kentucky, 32-15. Pitt will keep this game close despite their 2-3 record. They stumbled in the opening two weeks of the season; losing to an FCS team, Youngstown State, 31-17 and @ Cincinnati, 34-10. They then righted the ship beating Va Tech 35-17 and another FCS squad, Gardner-Webb, 55-10. Then last week fell to a battle tested Syracuse, 14-13. Sully says: take Louisville and give Pitt the 3!

Florida 5-0 -8.5 @ Vanderbilt: Florida is coming off its biggest win in the last couple of years, a 14-6 triumph over mighty LSU! You can bet the coaches were talking to the players about how this all ends if we do not prepare propertly for Vandy! With South Carolina on the horizon, this game spells … trap game in capital locks … even to 20 year olds! The Gators will come to play! Sully says: give the Commordes the 8.5 and take the Gators 

Northwestern 5-1 -3 @ Minnesota 4-1: The Cats and Gophers have a common opponent in Syrcuse; Northwestern beat the Orange in the Carrier Dome, 42-41, while Minnesota found a way @ home 17-10! Both teams are also coming off difficult losses, Minnesota was handled by Iowa, in Iowa City, 31-13, while the Wildcats lost a 28-17 4th quarter lead to Penn State, land losing the game, 39-28 in Happy Valley! Sully’s CFP Simulator has Northwestern winning the game 27-25, keep in mind this is a sytistical analysis and does not consider strength of schedule or the venue. Four of the five Wildcats wins are against AQ conference opponents and clearly, the Cats have played the more difficult schedule. Sully says: take the Cats and give the Gophers the points! 

Kansas State 5-0  -7 @ Iowa State 4-1: Bill Snyder gives new meaning to the concept that “one man can make a difference!” This guy has taking K-State from the Doldrums (dead zones in the oceans) to the French Riviera (where everything is hip) … seemingly … all by himself! That discriptor accurately depicts Kansas State football without & then with Coach Snyder! The Cyclones have beaten Tulsa, 38-23, a good non-AQ opponent and Iowa, a not so good AQ team, 9-6! Their one game against a quality AQ opponent Texas Tech .. did not go very well, a 24-13 defeat! Look for more of the same as they take on K-State … a team that beat mighty Oklahoma … @ Oklahoma, 24-19 and hammered Miami, 52-12. Sully says: Take Kansas State and Give Iowa State the seven!

Auburn 1-4 @ Ole Miss 3-3  -4: Ole Miss plays with a spirit that is refreshing to watch. They battled Bama like they did not know or did not care who they were playing … they were on that field to compete … Period! They are a battle-hardened group having mixed it up with the likes of Alabama (33-14), Texas (66-31), & Texas A&M (30-27) all losses, all at home, and in every one of these contests … Ole Miss battled to the final horn! Auburn has struggled mightly this year, with last week’s humiliation @ home (24-7 loss) to a discombubulated Arkansas as the low point of their season … so far! This game is being player at Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium, a site where the home team and the home crowd is starving for their team’s effort to be rewarded! Sully’s says: take Ole Miss and give the Tigers the 4 points! 

 

Check out Head to Head on the site for the Sully’s CFP Simulator to get a statistical analysis of these and other games!

 

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

 

Posted in Auburn, Florida, Iowa State, Kansas State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ole Miss, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, West Virginia |

Big 12: Week 7

Oklahoma 3-1 vs Texas 4-1: One of the biggest regular season games played every year since 1929 & always in front of a sell-out crowd … that is half red (Oklahoma) and half orange (Texas). While this is considered to be a battle between two heavy-weights … the games have really not been that close. Only 3 of the last 14 have been decided by single digits, although, all 3 have occurred in the last five years (2007, 28-21 Oklahoma;  2009 16-13, Texas: & 2010, 28-20 Oklahoma). In 2012, OU won, 55-17, as Texas turned the ball over 5 times (OU scored 31 points off these TO’s) and UT was stopped on the Sooners 17 & 14 yards lines … needing TDs … not FGs … so the score is/was somewhat misleading!

Oklahoma State 2-2 @ Kansas 1-4: The last time Okey State lost in lawrance was back in 1994. The Cowboys have won 4 straight by an average of 21 points; while Kansas last won in 2007, 43-28! In 2012, OSU put a 70 spot on KU and gave up 28 to the Jayhawks … as the ‘Boys” led 56-7 at halftime! These teams did not play every year … in the old Big 12 (North & South Divisions) Oklahoma State was in the South and Kansas was in the North!

West Virginia 5-0 @ Texas Tech 4-1: I was surprised by how poorly Tech played against OU, 41-20. My thinking was Tommy Tuberville has been waiting for a game like this since his days @ Auburn and the Red Raiders were going to attack the Sooners from all directions. Guess not! Last time Tech & WV hooked up was in the 1938 Sun Bowl … a game won by the Mountaineers, 7-6! Tuberville did play West Virginia while at Auburn, lost 34-17 in a regular season gane that the Tigers were favored by 3! It should be noted that, Dana Holgerson, was on the Texas Tech Staff from 2000 to 2007. In watching some of the OU TT game … the Red Raiders looked to be a step slow … not good when playing the speed that West Virginia is packing!

TCU 4-1 @ Baylor 3-1: These two old rivals are playing their first conference game since there days together in the old Southwest Conference (SWC). TCU has won three of the four non-conference games (2006-11). The Bears win last year (50-48) stopped the Horned Frogs 25 game winning streak! I’m sure Gary Patterson (TCU Head Coach) will remind the troops of that fact as they line up for the Saturday’s tilt! The Baylor TCU game … may have been the wildest game played in 2011… 9 lead changes …  Baylor led 47 to 23 in the 3rd quarter and then TCU scored the next 25 points to regain the lead (48-47) with seconds remaining. Baylor then went 60 yards in 11 plays to seal the deal, 50-47!

Kansas State 5-0 @ Iowa State 4-1: While Kansas State has had their way with ISU, 4 straight wins, the games have all been close, decided by 8 points or less. In 2007, K-State trailing 21-3 @ Jack Trice Stadium (ISU’s Home Field)  the Wildcats closed the gap to 28-20 … but the Cyclones held them off for their only win in the past five years, 31-20! This may be the second best game in the Big 12 this week-end! K-State is back to Jack Trice Stadium for the first time since loosing here in 07; the teams played in Kansas City in 09 & 2010 seasons and were at Bill Synder Family Stadium (K-State Home Field) last year!

Check out Head to Head on the site for the Sully’s CFP Simulator to get a statistical analysis of these and other games!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

Posted in Baylor, Big 12, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia |