Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

ACC: Week 7

Boston College 1-4 @ Florida State 5-1: In the last ten meetings FSU has won six, including the last two, 24-19 in 2010 & 38-7 last year @ BC’s Alumni Stadium. Both squads are coming off disappointing to shocking losses; BC loss to Army, 34-31 and FSU was upset by NC State, 17-16!

Maryland 3-2 @ Virginia 2-4: UVA is 15 -5 vs Marland, including last year’s drubbing, 31-13. Last time the Terrapins were @ Virginia’s Scott Stadium they were popped by the Cavaliers, 42-23! In fact, Maryland has not recorded a victory over Virginia in any of the past five seasons! That said, let’s add this… the games have not been close, with the exception of the 2007 game, played at Maryland’s Byrd Stadium, an 18-17 Terrapin loss!

North Carolina 4-2 @ Miami 4-2: These teams, although both 4-2, appear headed in different directions. North Carolina held serve at home against a traditional power (but struggling this year) Va Tech, 48-34; while the high scoring Hurricane winds were calm in the Windy City, as ND had smouth sailing, 41-3! Miami has won the last two meetings vs the Tar Heels, 33-10 in 2010 & 30-24 last year; while UNC had won the 3 previous games from 2007 through 2009!

Duke 5-1 @ Virginia Tech 3-3: This is the most interesting game in the ACC in week seven. Duke is having its best season in years and it is heading to Blacksburs to take on VT, who has beaten the Blue Devils 11 staight times. While 5-1 this season, Duke has not beaten a FBS team that has a winning record, meanwhile, the Hokies are having their worse season ( 2007, 11-3; 2008, 10-4; 2009, 10-3; 2010, 11-3; & 2011, 11-3) in the past 5 years and then some @ 3-3!

Clemson 5-1: has a Bye week … Nexu up Va Tech @ home.

NC State 4-2: has a Bye Week … Next up @ Maryland

Wake Forest 3-3: has a Bye week … Next up @ Virginia

Georgia Tech 2-4: has a Bye week … Next up BC @ home

Check out Head to Head on the site for the Sully’s CFP Simulator to get a statistical analysis of these and other games!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

Posted in ACC, Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest |

Big Ten: Week 7

Wisconsin 4-2 @ Purdue 3-2: This weekend is Purdue’s Homecoming and the Boilers have played well on Homecoming Weekends … winning 12 of the last 17. That said, the Badgers have beaten the Boilermakers six straight times and last year, hammered them by 45 points, 62-17! Wisconsin has also won the last four times they were in West Lafayette by an average of 21 points! Sully’s CFP was both surprised and disappointed with the Boilers performance against Michigan last week-end! Given the overall team speed and a very good defensive front Purdue has … the 44-14 pounding the Wolves put on them was completely unexpected. Meanwhile, the Badgers were beating an Illini team, 31-14, who performed better than the Wisconsin crowd during the “Jump Around” at the end of the 3rd quarter. If Illinois had played with the same energy they demonstrated during the “Jump Around” the Badgers would have been danced into oblivion!

Ohio State 6-0 @ Indiana 2-3: While it will never be said publicly, Urban Meyer and the Bucks are giving Jimmy Delany, the Big Ten Comminisher, a huge Migraine. OSU is not eligible for Post-Season play and the way the rest of the League is playing the Conference will not get a second team in a BCS game! Big dollars lost! Penn State (ineligible for the next four years) is not helping either… they are now 2-0 in league play and beat the last undefeated team (that follows the rules) Northwestern, 39-28, over the weekend! OSU has beaten the Hoosiers 18 straight times … last losing to Indiana in 1988 (remember these teams do not play every year … that is for you bean counters). The Bucks have also won 8 straight times in Bloomington, including last year’s, 34-20 escape … score was tied 20-20 late in 3rd Quarter! Indiana is coming off a tough loss to Michigan State, 31-27, while OSU annihilated Nebraska, 63-38!

Illinois 2-4 @ Michigan 3-2: In 2010, these two teams played a game that would have left the Elliott brothers (Bump coached Michigan and Pete coached Illinois in the early 1960, both prided themselves and the respective teams on defense) shocked and Bo Schembechler would have tried, to not only fire the Michigan Coach, Rich Rod, … he would have tried to fire the Illinois coach, Ron Zook, as well! The game went into overtime and ended with a Michigan victory … 67-65 .. the highest scoring game in Big Ten History! The contest was played in the Big House and did as much as any loss to to get Rich Rod fired at Michigan.  The Wolverines … the real Wolverines … would never give up 65 points … to anyone … was the thinking of the Michigan faithful! Last year, Wolverines beat the Illini, 31-14, as Fitzgerald Touussaint rushed for 192 yards against, at game time, the Big Ten’s best rush defense!

Iowa 3-2 @ Michigan State 4-2: The last time these teams met at Spartan Stadium, the game went down to the final snap; with Iowa completing a 7 yard Touchdown pass on 4th down as time expired … giving the Hawks a 15-13 victory over the Spartans! The Hawkeyes have won only once in their last five trips to East Lansing. The MSU had not lost a Big Ten home game in the past 2 years and are a perfect 8-0 in that time frame. The streak was broken by OSU, 17-16, on September 29th of this year! Michigan State is 1-1 in the conference while Iowa is 1-0 in the Big Ten.

Northwestern 5-1 @ Minnesota 4-1: Northwestern has won four of the last five meetings, with the Golden Gophers only win coming in 2009, 35-24! Both teams are off to great starts in 2012 and yet, both lost big games in their last outings. Northwestern fell to Penn State, 39-28, this past Saturday … missing a chance to go to 6-0 for the first time since 1962! Meanwhile, Minnesota traveled to Iowa City with a chance to open the season at 5-0 … but lost to the Hawks, 33-13. The head coaches here have done excellent work in 2012, Jerry Kill, has his team playing surprisingly well in his second season; while Patty Fitzgerald may be the best coach in the Conference … given he tends to do more with less than any other coach in the Big Ten!

Penn State 4-2: has a Bye Week … Next up for the Lions … @ Iowa

Nebraska 4-2: has a Bye Week … Next up for the Huskers … @ Northwestern

Check out Head to Head on the site for the Sully’s CFP Simulator to get a statistical analysis of these and other games!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

Posted in Big Ten, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin |

SEC Week 7

South Carolina 6-0 @ LSU 5-1: If the saying; no rest for the wicked (Book of Isaiah 48:22 & 57:20-21…. actually … No peace for the wicked …. is the correct Hebrew & late Aramaic translation) is true… then I’m not sure what transgression the Old Ball Coach committed… suffice to say … it was a big one! Playing Georgia, @ LSU & @ Florida back to back to back…. suggests…. not mortal sin but egregious sin! Oh yeah … take a week off and then play Tennessee and …wait … I got it … let’s end @ Clemson! Ok… alright …  I made that up about Spurrier and the sin stuff…. but is this schedule not wicked? The Tigers and Gamecocks have not got it on since 2008, a 24-17 LSU win at Williams-Brice; they also played in 2007, with the Tigers prevailing, 28-16 @ Tiger Stadium! This may be the best game of the regular season… with LSU digging in with the mentality “we done backing up … Jack” (loss to Florida, 14-6 last week) and Carolina stating “that seat at the head of the table.. belongs to us … Jack”!  Should be fun!

Alabama 5-0 @ Missouri 3-3: Since we’re using biblical references this week… Nick Saban was Babbling from his Tower …  in Tuscaloosa… again… on Wednesday… this time about “Hurry up offenses”! He claims that high-octane spreads cause injuries (no data was provided) in that the offenses line up the same formation and snap the ball so quickly …. the D never gets time to substitute. He believes this creates an unfair advantage for the offense and a greater time (say 15 seconds after the ball is set… my suggestion … not Nick’s… he focused more on being able to sub & get them set) between snaps should be looked at for the 2013 season. I think it should be reviewed as well … to determine if the “hurry up” does, in fact, create an unfair competitive advantage for the offense! That said, I would like to see the statistical data that shows an increase in player injury … being directly related to the fast play … and not draw wholesale conclusions based solely on St. Nick’s opinion! AU is 1-2 vs Mizzou and the last time the teams met was in 1978, a 38-20, Roll Tide Roll experience! Missouri is 3-36 against top 10 opponents since 1991!

Kentucky 1-5 @ Arkansas 2-4: The Wildcats are arriving in Razorback country at a time when John L. Smith seems to be steering the ship back toward their original destination, after a 24-7 whipping of Auburn … a SEC West Championship, an SEC Conference Championship & the BCS National Championship Game! The reality is… that ain’t happening.  … Arkansas is buried in the Mariana Trench (deepest area of the world’s oceans) and ain’t getting out (ain’t is the right word when discussing Razorback football this year)…@ least in this season! That said, Smith & Company can play for bowl eligibility or 6 wins. Kentucky would represent number 3 to that end. The bad news for Arkansas is … Kentucky won the last two meeting in 2007, 42-29 and in 2008, 21-20!

Tennessee 3-2  @ Mississippi State 5-0: These teams played in 2007 with UT winning, 33-21 and again in 2008, this time the Volunteers pounded the Bulldogs, 34-3. State is off to a great start @ 5-0 but have not played a high quality team, in fact, only one FBS team, Troy, that MSU has beaten, boast a winning record! While Tennessee’s two losses are to Florida and Georgia, two very talented teams in the SEC and have a solid win over a good NC State team, 35-21 (State beat FSU , a top 5 team, over the weekend) The Volunteers need to make a bowl this year to assist/secure Coach Dooley’s job stability in Knoxville. To that end, the next three weeks are going to be very challenging, MSU, Bama, & @ South Carolina. That said, TU will be favored in its last four games… Troy, Missouri, @ Vandy, & Kentucky! This is a big step up for Mississippi State and a game they need to win … if we are to come to think of them as they think of themselves (or at least as Danny Mullen like to think)… “one of the Big Boys in the SEC West”! One other point about this game … Tennessee has beaten Mississippi State 6 in a row!

Auburn 1-4 @ Ole Miss 3-3: The Rebels have had a difficult time with the Tigers of Auburn … 9-28 all time! Being @ Vaught-Hemingway (Ole Miss’ Stadium) has not made much difference either … as Auburn has won 9 of the last 11 played on the Rebels home turf! The last win by Mississippi in this series was in 2003! Both teams have played formidable schedules; Auburn has taken on Clemson, LSU, & Mississippi State, while Ole Miss has battled Alabama, Texas, & Texas A&M!

Georgia 5-1: has a bye week… & based on their effort (Lack of) against South Carolina .. had Bye last week as well!!  … Next up for the Puppies (this team … not Dawgs yet) … @ Kentucky.

Texas A&M 4-1: has a Bye this week…. Next up for the Aggies … LSU at Home!

Check out Head to Head on the site for the Sully’s CFP Simulator to get a statistical analysis of these and other games!

http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt |

Sully’s College Football Wrap Up Week 6

Talent. Focus. Percision

What We Learned: Focus is king, and a lack of it for even one night can halt the championship hopes of not just good teams, but great teams.  Florida State fell to a team they are much better than last night because, quite simply, Florida State was not ready to tackle the challenge so many thought, or even expected, they could.  Their defeat will no doubt change the landscape of the 2012 season, while also working to serve as a reminder of why Alabama is still king.  Nobody focuses like they do, because nobody else has Nick Saban.  Alabama is tough, fast, and more than anything, they are old school.  Oregon, however, is frenetic in pace, flashy, and innovative.  This will be the story of the college football season: The Old vs the New.  Oregon’s ascension to the national championship game seems more inevitable now than ever, but their final victory is yet limned with doubt amongst the minds of those watching.  This Alabama team is spectacular.  It is easy to talk about how great their offensive line is, and their running backs, too, but I’m not sure their QB gets the love he deserves.  AJ  McCarron is completing 73% of his passes, and has a 12-0 TD/Int ratio.  This kid is not another Parker-Wilson who is an effective game manager – he is capable of carrying his team if he has to.  McCarron is easily they best QB Saban has had during his time at Alabama, and in the end, that will show.

South Carolina Will Be a Player: 

Connor Shaw does not always play pretty games, but this kid is gritty.  He has hung tough for his team when they needed him to, and when he gets himself going South Carolina romps.  There really is not much to say about Lattimore than what has already been said (kid is a STUD), and Ace Sanders is as exciting as anyone in the country with the ball in his hands.  We don’t think they are quite as good as Alabama or Oregon are, but they are close.  On a night, who knows?

Florida is Good, but Still Unproven

Will Muschamp deserves a lot of credit for getting his team to improve in just one offseason the way that they have, but Florida needs to continue to win before we are ready to deem them a great team.  They beat a reeling, offensively challenged LSU team this past Saturday at home, and in doing so, they demonstrated not only that they are better than many, including myself, thought they were, but also that LSU is just not that spectacular this season.  There is something missing from this year’s LSU team that was there last season.  Despite that, the way Florida beat LSU was still extremely impressive, though there are still some concerns in relation to their play.  On one hand, Florida managed to beat LSU at their own game by just going at them with the running game, and eventually wearing them out.  Still, it should be noted Gilislee had 146 yards on 34 carries, which accounted for 63% of Florida’s entire offense yesterday, while Driskel passed for just 61 yards.  Sound familiar?  It should, because that is basically what LSU did last year, and in the end, that was not enough for them to win a championship.  Running the ball effectively, coupled with playing great defense is great, but balance is even better.

West Virginia is Good, not Great

Going in line with what was just talked about, doing one thing well is great, but not if doing that one thing well is at the expense of everything else.  For a proper illustration of how West Virgina stacks up against other teams, go check out our game simulator –> (http://sullyscollegefootballpage.com/Football_Stats/Matchup.cfm ).  There you will see that West Virginia stacks up favorably against only Kansas State and Oregon State of the AP Top 10.  In the other games, our simulator predicts defeat for them.  West Virginia is extremely fun to watch, but they are just not good enough defensively to win a championship.  Not even close.  Another BCS appearance this season is West Virginia’s best scenario.

Interesting Thing to Note:

For the First time ever, no Big Ten team is ranked in the coaches poll (Ohio State is ineligible for this poll, remember).  That is pretty staggering.  We have felt for weeks that the Big Ten was not very good, but we did not envision the league being this bad.

Our Knee Jerk Reaction:

While you all already know how we feel about Alabama, there are still other teams out there that are impressing us.  One such team is Notre Dame.  We think Kelly is finally starting to get it.  He is staying calm, and actually exercising great patience with his young, but talented QB, Everett Golson.  He needed to recognize this kid as being the future of his program, and when the cards were down on the table, he needed to let this kid play without destroying him. So far, so good.  Watch him on the sideline next week – he is doing a much better job of controlling his anger.

Last Season                                                                   This Season

Last Season vs This Season

Ohio State is also much better this year.  The young Braxton Miller is playing great, and while they are a step slow on defense, they are finding ways.  They are, after all, 6-0, which has to count for something.  Urban Meyer is doing a great job this season, and as he continues to bring in better talent into the program while Miller keeps getting better, Ohio State will continue to tread closer to being back to championship form.  In a couple years Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan should be able to get themselves back into the national championship picture, but it is still important to remember that, at least for now, they are not.

 

Posted in Alabama, Big Ten, Florida, Florida State, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, South Carolina, West Virginia |

PAC 12 Update and Best Game in Week 6

USC 3-1 @ Utah 2-2: The Trojans last played Utah in Salt Lake City in 1917 and annihilated the Utes 51-0, as the rest of the country was preparing for entry into WWI. Last year, SC won in the Coliseum, 23-14, but with score 17-14 as time was about to expire in the 4th quarter, the Utes lined up for the tying field goal … Southern Cal not only blocked it, they returned the block for a TD on the game’s final play!

UCLA 4-1 @ California 1-4: The home team has had its way in this series, winning 11 of the last 12. In the last five tilts, UCLA won the bookends 30-23 in 2007 & 31-14 in 2011 while Cal won the middle three, 2008, 41-20, 2009, 45-26, & 35-7 in 2010!  UCLA has really struggled on the road in PAC 12 games going just 3-19 in their last 22 contests. While their records are reflective of one another if viewed in a mirror … no question, but that Cal has played the tougher schedule!

Arizona 3-2 @ Stanford 4-1: Stanford has won the last two meetings yet only once in the series history have the Cardinal won 3 in a row! Last year marked the first time that both teams were ranked heading into game … Stanford won 48-29! The Cardinal was riding high in the saddle after beating USC, 21-14, but the loss to Washington, 17-13, knocked the “Bird” right off its horse. It will be interesting to see how they respond!

Washington 3-1 @ Oregon 5-0: Washington is coming off an impressive win against Stanford, 17-13, but like other PAC 12 teams has struggled in Eugene , 1-7 in there last 8 trips “down south”. UO has won 8 straight games (home & away) vs the Huskies by 17 or more points in each of the games. The Ducks handled Washington State, 51-26, last week and only in the Fresno State game did they fail to win by at least 20 points! This is the PAC 12 Best game of Week 6!

Washington State 2-3 @ Oregon State 3-0: Sully’s CFP picked the OSU to finish second in the PAC 12 North, while most publications were picking them fourth or lower. Not only are the Beavers 3-0, their wins are impressive; Wisconsin, 10-7, UCLA, 27-20 & Arizona, 38-35! WSU is coming off two tough losses, one a whipping by Oregon, 51-26 & the other, a heart-breaker, 35-34 to Colorado!

 

Posted in Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, PAC 12, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State |

Big 12 Update & Best Game in Week 6

Oklahoma 2-1 @ Texas Tech 4-0: Tommy Tuberville has been waiting for a game like this since he left Auburn. The men from OU better see this game for what it is … A trap game with all capital locks! Tech was picked 7th in the Big 12 and here they sit at 4-0, facing a monster schedule the next five weeks: OU Saturday followed by West Virginia @ home, @ TCU, @ Kansas State, & Texas @ home! Tuberville understands a highly successful season could rest on Saturday’s outcome. The confidence the Red Raiders can gain from a win here would be hard to quantify or categorize. But suffice to say this game, one way or another sets the table for the challenging schedule TTU faces in the coming weeks! Tech beat OU last year, 41-38 and they have never beaten the Sooners two years in a row… that’s right… never. This should be fun!

West Virginia @ Texas: The last time the Longhorns and Mountaineers got it on was 1956 … in Austin …. a 7-6 West Virginia victory! The Horns are 46-11 when hosting Big 12 opponents … but the last two years have been significantly different … 2-6! This is the beginning of an incredible odyssey for the Mountaineers as they will travel over 9,500 miles in four Big 12 away games! Last week, WV put a 70 spot on Baylor, but gave up 63, hardly the defensive behavior of a top ten program. Sam Houston State “held” Baylor to 48… 63 is just unacceptable for who the Mountaineers claim to be … a top ten unit! This week they face a team that is interested in playing defense. Texas… in Austin. West Virginia needs to get out of the mind set… we will outscore them & start to think in terms of 3 and out!

Iowa State 3-1 @ TCU  4-0: The Cyclones lost their first game of the season last week to Texas Tech, 23-13 and are at TCU’s Carter Stadium this Saturday. ISU is 0-3 all time vs TCU with their only visit to Fort Worth in 1995! The last meeting was in the Houston Bowl, in 2005, where TCU kicked the winning Field Goal late in the forth quarter for a 27-24 victory!

Kansas 1-3 @ Kansas State 4-0: These teams have played every year since 1911 with K-State winning 3 of the last 5. That said, the last two have not been pretty, the Wildcats have pounded Kansas, 59-7 in 2010 & 59-21 in 2011! Two former Notre Dame associates have reconnected in Lawrence, Head Coach, Charlie Weis and Dane Crist, the current QB. The Jayhawks’ only win this season is against a FCS opponent, South Dakota State, 31-17. While K-State can boast of an undefeated record and a victory over powerful Oklahoma!

Baylor 3-1 has a Bye Week… Next up TCU @ Home

Oklahoma State 2-2 has a Bye Week…. Next up @ Kansas

Posted in Baylor, Big 12, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia |

Sully’s Six Pack of Winners Week 6

Michigan State vs Indiana

Our game simulator has Michigan State edging Indiana in 6 out of the 8 possible game determining categories we use, and with good reason.  Indiana is not a very good football team, and considering the fact that State has its back against the wall with two losses at home this season, this is a must win game for the Spartans.  This, coupled with the fact that Andrew Maxwell, MSU’s QB, is starting to come into his own this season, spells big trouble for IU.  It is for these reasons that we believe Michigan State is going to hammer Indiana this coming weekend. Sully says take State and give the 14.5 points

Mississippi State vs Kentucky

Our game simulator has Mississippi State winning 7-1 in our statistical categories against Kentucky, which comes as no surprise to us.  Incidentally, it also has Mississippi State winning by a score of 34 to 18.  What is surprising is that Mississippi State is only giving Kentucky 10 ½ points.  Kentucky did indeed give South Carolina a little bit of trouble last week, but the fact is that they still got outscored 31-0 in the second half last week, and what is worse, they lost to Western Kentucky just two weeks before.  I’m not sure anything else needs to be said. Sully says take MSU and give the points 

Georgia Tech vs Clemson

Our game simulator has Clemson winning 7-1 in our stats category, and this coming Saturday, and they might win 8.  Georgia Tech is coming off of a humbling loss to Middle Tennessee State (49-28), while Clemson got things back on track last week with a strong showing vs Boston College.  Sammy Watkins will be back from a stomach virus, which is not going to help Georgia Tech’s cause. Sully says give GT the 10.5 and take Clemson

  Oklahoma vs Texas Tech

Our game simulator has Texas Tech winning 6-2 in the statistical categories, and winning by a score of 29.5  to 24.  Considering the fact that Texas Tech has played an utterly dreadful schedule up to this point, we are not yet buying their 4-0 record or the stats.  Oklahoma is a decent team, and if they can get Landry Jones going, they have the potential to be an excellent team.  This week, whether they do that or not, they are going to beat Texas Tech. Across the board the Sooners are the better team, and this Saturday they will take care of business against Tech. Sully Says take OU and give Tech the 4 points.

Florida State vs North Carolina State

Our game simulator has FSU sweeping NCSU 8-0 in our statistical categories, and winning by a score of 36 to 21.  It will not even be that close this coming Saturday.  Florida State is coming off of a tough game against South Florida, which should have them focused for this game.  They are easily the more gifted team in this game, as they will be in every game they play in the regular season this year.  NCSU is not good enough to hang with this team.  Glennon is an effective QB, and O’Brian is a good football coach, but that is not enough against the kind of speed and talent Florida State has. Sully Says take FSU and give NC State the 13.5

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina

Our simulator has North Carolina beating Virginia Tech 6-2 in our statistical categories, and considering how lethargic Virginia Tech has been this season, we are not particularly surprised.  Despite this, we still believe that Va Tech will not only cover, but defeat North Carolina this Saturday.  Logan Thomas has all of the ability in the world, and Virginia Tech still has excellent coaching and speed.   North Carolina has not defeated any strong opponents this year because, while Fedora is a good coach, this team still has a long ways to go. Sully says take Va Tech and the 3.5 points

Sully’s CFP is currently 17-12 vs the Spread!

 

Posted in #4 Sully's CFP Six Pack of Winners, ACC, Alabama, Auburn, Big 12, Big Ten, Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Illinois, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi State, NC State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, PAC 12, SEC, South Carolina, Texas, UCLA, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin |

Big Ten Update and best Game in Week 6

Illinois 2-3 @ Wisconsin 3-2: This is an interesting game! The Illini are bad … they have given up 87 points in their last two losses; (La Tech 52-24 and PSU 35-7). While the Badgers are a disappointment …. they could easily be 5-0, having lost two games by three points or 0-5 having won two games by less that a TD and in the other …. scoring a late TD … to win by 11. This is not the Wisconsin whose offensive line generates a primal fear in the opposition or whose running game roars up and down the field with a pronounced indifference to front seven’s. The now famous phrase from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid when trying to figure out how the posse was able to track them at night, over rock, up and down streams and into the mountains… they repeatedly asked “Who are these guys”? The same question is being considered when thinking of the Badger’s performances this year “Who are these guys”? Across the field, I wonder if the Illini Coaching staff is questioning their logic of going to recruit Penn State players with a seeming indifference to a fellow Big Ten Team’s plight was the right path to follow. Or in retrospect, would they take the high road established by Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald, who simply said “we will not be recruiting any players currently on the Penn State roster”. One thing was/is clear, Coach O’Brien & PSU’s remaining players remembered the perceived Illinois transgression with that 35-7 tail whipping they put on the Fighting Illini this past Saturday! So this weekend we have “Who are these guys” squaring off against “Aah … we probably should not have done that guys”… Like I said …. should be interesting!

Nebraska 4-1 @ Ohio State 5-0: This is the Big Ten’s Best Game of the week. Last year OSU was up 27-6 in the 3rd quarter and seemed well on their way to victory, when their QB, Braxton Miller, went down and out with an injury and the rest of the Bucks might as well went with him. The Huskers scored the game’s final 28 points and pulled out the improbable win, 34-27! The last time Nebraska was at the Horseshoe was in 1966 and they were not treated well…. a 34-7 “get lost pal” by the Bucks doorman! OSU best win to date was last week vs MSU, a 17-16 physical affair that while not flashy was also not a place for the timid! Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers were orchestrating a comeback win against Wisconsin, down 27-10, Nebraska put up 20 unanswered to take down the Badgers, 30-27! This game was similar to the Huskers battle with OSU last year and sets up an early season impact game on who emerges from the Legends Divisions… but not the Leaders Division (remember OSU is not eligible for post season play this year… including the Big Ten Championship Game)! One other note … in the Big Ten, coaches send & receive film to & from their next opponent … apparently Urban is up to some of his old SEC antics as the film MSU got did not have any pre-snap shifts on it and began with the snap of the ball. Needless to say MSU was not happy! As a result, Nebraska requested and has received the OSU – UCF film from Central Florida… Urban is heating it up in the Big Ten Baby!!!

Michigan 2-2 @ Purdue 3-1: This game was a turn over fest last time these teams played in the Big House (2010) with both teams “dropping the rock” 5 times a piece. The Wolves have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including the last two games, 27-16 in 2010 & 36-14 last year! That said, this is the best looking Purdue team in a bunch of years. Kawann Short is as good a DT as I have seem this year and their overall defense has improved with 21 players from the state of Florida and another 24 from southern states… the Boilers can run … and run fast! These are not 5 star recruits, however, they have played against great speed in high school and are changing the arrival time of Purdue defenders. Make sure you focus in on Michigan’s QB, Denard Robinson, when he takes off and PU ability to close down on him!

Northwestern 5-0 @ Penn State 3-2: This is Penn State’s Homecoming Game… sure fire thing to be an emotional setting … given their troubles.. the faithful are going to be and will expect a huge emotional effort from their Lions! Knowing the public Bill O’Brien… they will get that effort and more. The Nittany Lions enter the contest on a three straight game winning streak and will be in front of 106,000 emotionally charged …  white-outed crowd (PSU’S crowds often where white T-shirts to create a white out effect) to see the fourth win in a row. That said, The Cats come in undefeated with four of their five wins against opponents from AQ conferences! Paddy Fitzgerald took the High road with PSU troubles… he refused to kick or take advantage of a fellow Big Ten member who was vulnerable to exploitation! This act did not go unnoticed by O’Brien and you will see a warm greeting before and after this game between these two coaches….. unlike last week with Illinois!

Michigan State 3-2 @ Indiana 2-2: MSU is unhappy (17-16 loss to OSU) and Indiana is sure to hear about it! The second home loss of the season, film-gate, and the drive to Indianapolis begins with a win on Saturday or else! Another misstep and the Spartans may end up as spectators, watching not playing (in), the Big Ten Championship game. Indiana is also coming of a loss, 44-29, to Northwestern in Evanston. MSU has had its way with the Hoosiers, 12-2 in the last 14, three in a row since 2007 and last year’s thumping of IU, 55-3 @ Spartan Stadium. Kevin Wilson, Oklahoma’s former Offensive Coordinator and IU current Head Coach, is probably (secretly, of course) wondering why he left Norman for Bloomington… but never on the way to the bank!

Minnesota 4-1: Has a Bye Week  … Next Up for the Gophers Northwestern @ Home

Iowa 3-2: Has a Bye Week  … Next Up for the Hawks @ Michigan State

Posted in Big Ten, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin |

SEC Update and Best Game(s) Week 6

The truth is now that the SEC teams are playing one another, picking a best game is more difficult to do… so why bother discriminating between or among two or more great games?

LSU 5-0 @ Florida 5-0: Although in different divisions (LSU West & Florida East) these teams get it on each and every year! The Gators chomped on the Tigers in 08, 51-21, at home, but lost to them in “The Swamp” ….  Florida’s, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, in 2010, 33-29 … the infamous fake field goal that led to LSU’s winning TD! In 07, LSU survived the Gators 28-24 @ Tiger Stadium…. but not in 09, as the Gators went into Baton Rouge on a Saturday Night (LSU can’t be beat at home on Saturday night… or so it was thought) and beat LSU, 13-3, to put an end to that myth! LSU must have had lingering recollections of 2008 as they put a beat down on Florida, 41 to 11, in last years game! Both teams enter the contest unbeaten, with Florida’s 2012 resume a little stronger with wins @ Texas A&M (20-17) and at Tennessee (37-20), while LSU’s best win was at Auburn (12-10). This the Best Game in the SEC this week…. Ok …. one of the Best Games in the conference this week!

Georgia 5-0 @ South Carolina 5-0: These teams are SEC East rivals and have played in each of the past five years. The Gamecocks have beaten the Bulldogs two of the past three times they have traveled Athens and got it on in Sanford Stadium! In 2007 USC won, 16-12, in 2009, the Dawgs  found a way, 41-37, and last year the Gamecocks won a shootout, 45-42! Georgia is one and one in Columbia, winning in 2008, 14-7 and losing in 2010, 17-6. These teams have two common opponents, Vanderbilt, Georgia (@ home in  Sanford Stadium) pounded the Commodores 48-3 while the Cocks (@ Vanderbilt) struggled with Vandy, winning 17-13; they also both took on Missouri, Georgia traveled to Columbia and won 41-20 & Carolina beat the Tigers at home 31-10. Game Day is on site for this one… should be a great game!

Arkansas 1-4 @ Auburn 1-3:  The John L Smith insanity continues… this week in Auburn, Alabama. Everyone (or almost everyone) was singing Jeff Long’s praises, Arkansas’ Athletic Director, for hiring Smith… as the thought was this would help create a smooth transition for the progrsm. Fired Bobby Petrino had worked for Smith as his Offensive Coordinator @ Louisville and the staff would remain intact with the Smith hiring … as the offensive and defensive schemes would remain the same.  Best laid plans… and all that stuff…. this has turned into a ragging mess / embarrassment for Arkansas and the SEC as a whole! And ….  Just when you thought this can’t get worse… it did … a lot worse! Smith, who has always been a little to a lot bazaar in his behavior, filed bankruptcy, claiming debt / loses of 25 million in some type of real estate venture! Smith claimed the deal went south… south? ….. $25,000,000.00?  must have gone to the South Pole! The home team has won in each of the last 5 games … given the Razorbacks ability to focus on football of late… look for Auburn to continue that trend… and … then some!

Mississippi State 4-0 @ Kentucky 1-4: These teams have met in each of the past five years with Kentucky winning once, in 2008, 14-13. The Wildcats have never lost four in a row in this series and are currently riding a three game losing streak. They have also lost the last three contests when playing MSU in Lexington, dating back to the 2006 season. While the Bulldogs are 4-0 … they really have not played a quality opponent … other than Auburn, where they did play well in a 28-10 victory at home. This is the second year in a row the game is being player @ Commonwealth Stadium in Kentucky due to SEC expansion which created a schedule anomaly!

Vanderbilt 1-3 @ Missouri 3-2: The Missouri Tigers will be looking for their first SEC win on Saturday as the host the Commodores of Vanderbilt. Their first two attempts were losses against two of the best teams in the SEC, Georgia (41-20) & South Carolina (31-10). These teams have not played since 1958 (Vandy won 12-8) and Mizzou leads the series 2-1-1! That said, the last time the Tigers beat the Commodores was in 1896… fair to say that game has absolutely no relevance to Saturday’s battle! Vandy is struggling his year, after playing well against South Carolina at home, 17-13 loss, the Commodores did not perform well against Northwestern, a 23-13 loss or Georgia, a 48 to 3 pounding  by the Dawgs! The game being played in Columbia is significant in that Missouri was 7-1 in hosting conference opponents, while Vandy is 1-11 in its last 12 SEC road games!

Texas A&M @ Ole Miss: The Rebels have not had their way when the have taken on the Aggies… 0-4 all time! That said, the games have been close, three have been decided by 7 or less points. Ole Miss and A&M last met in 1980! The Aggies will get their first taste of SEC, “Big Boy Football”,  on the road, in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. This should not be an issue, as A&M has one of the wildest home environments in all of college football.

Alabama 5-0: Has a Bye Week… Next up for the Tide @ Mizzou

Tennessee 3-2: Has a Bye Week … Next up for the Vols @ Mississippi State

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt |

PAC 12 Update and Best Game in Week 5

UCLA 3-1 @ Colorado 1-3: The Bruins have made the trip to Boulder three times and are 2-1 for their efforts. The last time these teams met in Folsom Stadium (2003) the Buffs won the game, 16-14! Last year’s game was dominated by the UCLANS, 45-6, in fact, UCLA was up 14-0 and had only run three offensive plays. The Buffolas are coming into the game having won their first game of the 2012 season, a 35-34 win over Washington State. UCLA conversely lost their first game of the 2012 season last week to Oregon State, 27-20.

Oregon State 2-0 @ Arizona 3-1: Sully’s CFP has identified this game as the PAC 12’s Best Game in week five.  The Wildcats were 3-0 and had scored 115 point in the previous two weeks (59-38 victory over Oklahoma and 56-0 win over South Carolina State) heading into their showdown with Oregon. They were blasted by the Ducks, 49-0 in a shocking lack of offense given what they had done in the two prior weeks. Sully’s CFP page did pick Oregon State to finish second in the PAC 12 North Division behind Oregon. The Beavers have given Wisconsin (10-7) and UCLA (27-20) their only losses of the 2012 season. Last year Oregon State beat Arizona, 37-27, and the Beavers have beaten the Wildcats in 4 of the last five meetings.

Stanford 3-0 @ Washington 2-1: Stanford is 6-1 in the last seven vs the Huskies and has won the last four by an average of 29 points. Last year, Stanford hammered Washington, 66-21 in Stanford Stadium. This game will lead off week 5 as it will be played on Thursday evening. The Cardinals roll into this game at 3-0, with an impressive 21-14 win over USC! Washington, unlike Stanford, failed in their major test against LSU, a 41-3 beat down.

Oregon 4-0 @ Washington State 2-2: Oregon went into last week with what seemed to be their first real test of the season; Arizona came to Eugene with a 3-0 record and ready to step up into the big time. UO showed the Wildcats that they were not quite ready for the realm that the Ducks reside in as they put a 49-0 whipping on the Wildcats. Washington State was about to go 3-1 and then lowly Colorado came roaring back for an improbable 35-34 win. Now the Cougars welcome the Ducks to Pullman and Mike Leach will get his first look at the speed & quickness of Oregon!

Arizona State 3-1 @ California 1-3: Cal lost to SC, 27-9 last week while ASU smacked Utah 37-7! Cal has won four of the last five games and the Sun Devils have lost five straight in visits to Berkeley. Last year Cal won in Tempe, 47-38. States only loss is to Missouri, 24-20 and the Golden Bears only win is against Southern Utah, an FCS team and member of the Big sky!

USC 3-1 has a Bye Week: Next up @ Utah

Utah 2-2 has a Bye week: Next up USC @ Home

 

Posted in Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, PAC 12, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah |