Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Sully Talking Stuff

Wisconsin: Jordan Kohout, a defensive tackle for the Badgers has left the team for medical reasons. Last spring he began to experience migraine headaches and a recent MRI has revealed that he actually has suffered two minor strokes! Kohout appeared in all 14 games a year ago and will be missed. That said, Jordan caught a break, he and the Badger nation could be dealing with something far worse, and while this is tough, the alternative could have been fatal. Wisconsin has offered a medical scholarship and Jordan has indicated he will stay on with the team as a student assistant.

Texas: For those of you who remember the computer game “Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego”, a clear walkover would be “Where in the Doak Walker world is Malcolm Brown?”  The Doak Walker Award is given annually to College Football’s best runner. This year 52 players have been placed on the “watch list” and 7 of them are from the Big 12; John Hubert, Kansas State; Waymon James, TCU; Joseph Randle, Oklahoma State; Jarred Salubi, Baylor , Eric Stephens, Texas Tech, Matthew Tucker, TCU; & James White, Iowa State. So where is Brown? I can tell you…. he is a first team selection on the All-Big 12 Pre-season team. He is regarded as one, if not the best (or at least most talented) runner in the Big 12 Conference.  Lindy’s Sports and Phil Steele both have Brown as a Big 12 first team selection in their respective magazines.  I’d bet Doak is not happy about this Texas slight. For those of you who do not know about Doak Walker, he is from Texas, he attended SMU where he won the Heisman in 1948 as a Junior (first Junior ever to win the award).  So forget Carmen, where’s Malcolm?

Conference Ranking: There is little to no question that the SEC is the #1 conference in the nation. After that let the debate begin…. well maybe not yet… the Big 12’s addition of TCU and West Virginia to Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State & Kansas State, in my view makes them a solid second. The third through fifth spots is where the ranking will vary. Sully’s CFP says: 3) Big Ten, 4) ACC,& 5) PAC 12. That said, The PAC 12 has two teams that are better then any squad that the ACC or Big Ten will put on the field this year. SC or Oregon would win the ACC or the Big Ten, but after those two clubs the league is not that strong. Stanford will be down with Luck gone… period … end of discussion! Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, & Washington all have 1st year coaches. Colorado is bad and while Cal & Oregon State have talent (especially Cal) they are struggling. Utah is a good program (good skill and well coached), but I saw them against ND… they need to get better athletically to compete at this level! So it is down to the ACC &  Big Ten for the third spot. You could argue that Florida State is the best team in either of these leagues and have a very strong case…. while the Big Ten could counter punch claiming that Ohio State & Wisconsin are better clubs than the ACC’s next best, Clemson. Sully’s CFP lists Michigan State, Michigan & Nebraska as better teams in 2012 than the ACC’s Virginia Tech (Michigan beat the Hokies 23-20 in the 2011 Sugar Bowl), North Carolina (although…this team may have more raw talent then any team in either the ACC or Big Ten…  FSU excluded) & Georgia Tech. The Big East is 6th, followed by the Mountain West at 7th, C-USA @ 8th, the MAC 9th, Sun Belt 10th & WAC 11th! In fact, the Big Sky, an FCS Conference, led by Montana, may be a better league right now than the WAC!

Posted in AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, PAC 12, SEC, Sun Belt, SWAC |

Sully talking Stuff

Miami Recruiting: I don’t know about you, but when I hear that Yahoo Sports is breaking a major sport  story (or any story for that matter) the words yahoo and credible seem to bounce around in my head. YAHOO… C’mom…. Anyway, the latest from Miami involves an assistant football equipment manager (interesting job title), Sean Allen, who had ties with the Ponzi genius, ( well… OK…. not a genius … that dope is in jail) Nevis Shapiro. The implication is that Al Golden, the current coach, knew about Allen’s behavior and did not report it to the NCAA. One thing Golden is guilty of is lack of understanding of the terms imply and infer. He stated that the report inferred, it did not…it implied… the reader infers!   Interpretive grammar aside, Yahoo noted that phone records show Allen talking to recruits and then calling assistant coaches immediately after these conversations. The report alleges that Allen set up meetings for the coaches and recruits at various restaurants around Miami and provided transportation for recruits. Both of these activities are outside the guidelines for how an institution can interact with recruits. Donna Shalala, Miami President, implied that this stuff is old news and has already been investigated… the problem is she did not say who investigated these behaviors! If the investigation was internal… Somebody… quick… call Louis Freeh!

Miami Departures: Not sure what to make of the Sean Allen business, but there is no question that over-hyped Safety, Ray Ray Armstrong has been dismissed from the squad for a variety of NCAA and team infractions. That said, what happened to Thomas Deahn, Director of Football Operations for Miami? He was the guy that Al Golden brought over from Temple to help him clean up Miami’s mess. Apparently, he is gone! Suddenly….Why? I will let you speculate…. given the Allen report and Golden’s alleged knowledge of the contacts. Ok … I speculated!

Big Ten: The presidents told its Conference Commissioner Jim Delany… Thanks … but no thanks… to the suggestion that he have the power to fire coaches that embarrass the reputation of the Big Ten! Sully’s CFP thought this suggestion was in the stratosphere, from the quick response of the presidents and chancellors, they must have thought it was in the Ethereal Plain … not sure where that is… but I think that is in Texas! Waco, Texas…pronounce Wacko, Texas!

Baylor University: The 2011 football campaign was a magical one for the Bears, beat Oklahoma, beat Texas, and win the Heisman all in one season. If someone had predicted this at the beginning of the year, we would have found a date on Mayan Calendar for them to be committed to the Waco Asylum! Mark Twain once said, truth is stranger than fiction, because fiction is obligated to stick to possibilities… Truth is not! As a result of the deviation from what was possible for the Baylor Football Program in 2011, the university announced it is building a 250 million dollar stadium on its campus that will seat 45,000! The facility is scheduled to be opened for the 2014 season! See…. I was right… the Ethereal Plain is in Waco! But I wrong about the pronunciation… it is Waco!

Posted in SULLY'S cfp |

Sully Talking Stuff

SEC Media Days: I thought Alabama’s Coach, Nick Saban, had a good idea when asked about what should happen to Penn State football re: the Sandusky Scandal. He thought Penn State should take a percentage of each athletic ticket sold and present the money to agencies that that assist children who are victims of child abuse. He was quick to note, that these $’s would come from Penn State’s profit and not an increase in the cost of the ticket which essentially would pass the cost of this aide on to the fans. As I have said before, Penn State needs to get in front of this and here are three thoughts: 1) recognize the criminal nature of Sandusky’s behavior and the decision-making of others; 2) reiterate its commitment to keeping children safe, and 3) dispel any thought that the University would put its image in front of the safety of a child. I think Coach Saban’s idea would fit well with all three of these points; it admits wrong doing, it actively assists abused children & it takes baby steps in addressing its safety / image issue.

Hot Seats in the SEC: Joker Phillips (Kentucky) and Derek Dooley (Tennessee) are two SEC coaches whose teams need to perform better this season. Coach Phillips’, in his third year at Kentucky (11-14), team missed a bowl game in 2011 for the first time in 5 years. His team has been on a steady decline, in 2009, 7-6; 2010, 6-7; & last year, 5-7; and to add fuel to the fire, they are picked to finish last in the SEC East this year. Even if this comes to pass (finishing last in 2012), I think Joker can survive through the 2013 season… but must show progress that year or he will not be leading the Wildcats in 2014!  Derek Dooley’s situation is much different, he has one of the best QB’s, Tyler Bray, in the conference and one of the best receiver combinations , Justin Hunter 6’4″ and Da’Rick Rodgers 6’3″, in the nation. The Vol’s defense will be vastly improved and as a team, can finish as high as 3rd in the East if they win their Sept. 15th battle at home with Florida. Tennessee opens the season against a very good NC State team in Atlanta. This game should give you a good idea where Coach Dooley’s team is headed in 2012!

Big Ten Commissioner: A report is circulating from the the Big Ten Offices that the conference is considering giving its commissioner the power to financially punish, suspend, and even fire coaches. This idea, on the surface, seems to be in stratosphere. I am sure it is an attempt by the Big Ten to be proactive, in the event that members embarrass or harm the conference image (back to image again) as Penn State has done recently. If this is to come to pass, every university would have to restructure their contracts with coaches and the Athletic Directors, Presidents, and Chancellors would be surrendering their authority and autonomy to run their institutions.  This should be interesting!

Big East Pay Day:  Everybody leaving the Big East these days is writing a check… a big one. Syracuse and Pittsburgh, who will be leaving the conference for the ACC after the 2012 season, have each sent the Big East Office a check for 7.5 million. TCU, who never played a game in the Big East, who committed to playing in the conference and then reneged for a Big 12 offer, has agreed to pay 5 million for their “now you see me…. now you don’t behavior”! Several teams have expressed an interest in joining the Big East in 2013 & 2015….  based on these events, better bring your gear or send a check!       

Posted in Alabama, Big Ten, Penn State, SEC |

Sully Talking Stuff

Penn State: The Freeh Report is out and the clear implication is Joe Paterno would be charged if he were alive today.The language used was Paterno and others showed a “shocking disregard” for the safety of children. What one infers from the report is that PSU put its football image in front of all things… including criminal behavior.

Bobby Bowden: In an ESPN interview former Florida State Coach, Bobby Bowden, said that in order to save the family further embarrassment, the statue of Coach Paterno at Beaver Stadium should be taken down. He believes that at every Peen State game cameras will begin their coverage by panning the statue and thus causing the pain of this to continue indefinitely. LaVar Arrington, an all-American linebacker @ PSU, essentially agreed saying all things related to the scandal have to be purged!

Auburn /Alabama: The State of Alabama better call out the Forest Rangers as trees on the Auburn campus may be at risk.  At the very least, Auburn should hire a private detective to track the whereabouts of Harvey Updyke, the dope that poisoned the Oak trees at Toomer’s Corner, …. after Bama lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl in 2010. The reason being the number 2 rated player in next year’s class, Reuben Foster, has switched his commitment from Alabama to Auburn. Foster is a 5 star (highest rating) inside linebacker and one of the most heavily recruited players in the country.

Big Ten /PAC 12: The schedule round robin between the two conference to begin in 2017 has been canceled. Big Ten Commissioner, Jim Delaney, expressed his disappointment that the PAC 12 was unable to adjust their schedules, do in part, to their 9 game conference dates, leaving only 3 non-conference games. The SEC, ACC, & Big Ten, conferences with 2 division, play an eight conference game schedule and leaving room for four non-conference.

Nick Saban: Travis Haney, an ESPN Insider, used four criteria to rate the top college football coaches in the FBS: 1) Recruiting & Development, 2) Preparation and Game Day, 3) Perception & Reception, 4) Consistency and Sustainability. When Haney applied this criteria, Alabama’s Nick Saban was the clear winner!

Scout Recruiting Ratings:  According to Scout the current top five recruiting classes for 2013 are 1) Michigan, 2) Texas A&M, 3) USC, 4) Notre Dame, & 5) Georgia.

ESPN top 150: Where are ESPN’s Top 150 players headed for in 2013, 1) Michigan 11 commits; 2) USC 10 commits; 3) Florida & Texas 7 commits ; 5) Alabama & Ohio State 6 commits; 7) Florida State, Notre Dame, & Texas A&M 5 commits; & 10) Georgia 4 commits.

Rivals Recruiting Rankings: For 2013 are, 1) Michigan; 2) USC; 3) LSU; 4) Georgia; 5) Texas A&M; 6) Notre Dame; 7) Florida, 8) Alabama, 9) Texas, & 10) Ohio State

Posted in ACC, Alabama, Auburn, Big Ten, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, PAC 12, Penn State, SEC, Texas, USC |

The Mighty SEC

If Ohio State players and faithful insist the we go the “The Citadel” route and use The in front of Ohio State (which they pronounce Thee) to be respectful of all things Buckeye; then how can we simply say SEC? Are we not obligated to use the adjectival “mighty” to capture the true essence of SEC accomplishments of recent?

Ok …you get it… I am poking fun at those dopes from OSU and their use of Thee. I am not implying and you should not infer any disrespect aimed at the SEC’s dominance of the three historically American sports, Baseball (Arizona broke a three year championship run by beating the SEC’s South Carolina in 2012), Basketball (Ok… you’re right… not dominance .. but Kentucky did win it this year) and Football… 6 national championships and counting! They simply are the best college athletic conference in the country!

The SEC consists of two divisions, East and West, with seven universities on each side of the conference. In the East, we have Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and newcomer, Missouri. While the West fields, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and newcomer, Texas A&M.

East Division

Georgia: Aaron Murray is the best QB in the SEC or at least that was the thought going into the season a year ago. You would get an argument from Fayetteville, Arkansas heading into 2012 season that, their guy, Tyler Wilson, is the best the SEC has to offer. While Wilson passed for more yards, threw 8 fewer int.’s, and had a better completion percentage in 2011; Murray passed for 11 more TD’s, extends plays in the pocket with his feet, and is fast enough to escape when a called play goes south. The “Dwags” best runner, Isaiah Crowell, has been dismissed from the team for two felony charges, one involving a concealed  weapon (gun). This opens the door for their prize recruit, Keith Marshall, who is considered, by many, to be as good as Crowell (Crowell was the # 1 Running back in his class) coming out of high school. Wide receiver, Tavarres King, is one of the best in the SEC and has the speed to take it to the house an any given reception. The O-line returns just two starters and will need time to grow, to that end their early schedule will assist them. Their D-line and linebacker corps are among the best in the country and Georgia’s secondary returns 4 of its top 5! Prediction: First

South Carolina: QB Conner Shaw passed for 1300 plus yards and was the second leading rusher (525) for the Gamecocks, behind Marcus Lattimore, in the 2011 season. Lattimore, who many believe is the most talented runner in the country, struggled with the injury bug a year ago, but appears healthy and ready to go in 2012. Surprisingly, a Steve Spurrier led team is relatively inexperienced at wide receiver and will need time to develop in this realm. The “Cocks” front seven is among the nations best, but their secondary loses all four starters. Obviously, their front seven, led by Devin Taylor and Jadeveon Clowney will need to pressure the pass and clean up the run to give the D-back unit time to develop; they will… they are that good! Prediction: Second 

Florida: It is always a gamble to take an offensive or defensive coordinator as a first-time head coach; especially if he is from outside the fold, and give him the reigns to a high powered program like Florida. The learning curve for a first time head coach is significant and at a place like ND, Texas, SC, or Florida …. it is immense. Their are so many intangibles in this type of position that one really never knows how a coach who has been successful at the football side (coordinator) will do when exposed to all sides of the equation. The Will Muschamp (7-6) scenario is certainly one of the reasons, among others, as to why I have the Gators ranked third, not first, in the East. The QB projected starter, Jeff Driskel, passed for the grand total of 148 yards last season, 0 TD’s, and 2 INT’s. They are also inexperienced at running back, where Jeff Demps & Chris Rainey, two speed merchants, have left the building. Mike Gillislee is currently penciled in as the starter at RB. At wide out, Andre Debose is one of the SEC’s best, as is TE, Jordan Reed. The O-line brings back 4 of 5 and should be one of the best units on the team! Florida has a D-line that is as good as any in the country and that remains true, even after losing Ronald Powell for the season with a knee injury in the spring game. The line backer and secondary corps are also viewed as being among the nation’s best. Florida may field the # one defense in the SEC in 2012!  Prediction: Third

Tennessee: Derek Dooley is one of the coaches whose seat is no longer warm… it is hot! He needs to win at least 7 games and get to a bowl this year. There is a high probability this story will have a happy ending 2012. QB Tyler Bray is an excellent signal caller and has two of the best receivers in the country in Da’rick Rogers and Justin Hunter. These two are second only to USC’s Robert Woods & Marqise Lee as the best tandem of receivers in college football. Although, we may get an argument from West Virginia’s Tavon Austin & Stedman Bailey. The running back position should produce greater numbers do, in part, to last years low production. Phil Steel believes that the Volunteers O-line may be the most improved unit in the nation. On defense, the Vols should out preform last years groups at each of the three levels. They are talented and experienced at all three defensive levels.  Prediction: Fourth

Missouri: Welcome to “Big Boy Football” as they like to say down in SEC country. The show me state is about to be shown a different perspective on the running game and how defense is played in Dixie. In the Big 12, the teams seem to understand that in order to win a championship, you have to play defense; in the SEC, championships be damned, they want to play defense. Clearly, a different concept! The Tigers QB, James Franklin, passed for 2,865 and rushed for another 981 yards. These numbers will be fun to keep an eye on vs the stronger SEC defenses. At running back, Henry Josey, first team all Big 12, is the featured back at 1,168 rushing yards a year ago. The Tigers did land the nations top recruit this past for 2012; wide receiver, Dorial Green-Beckham, who should contribute immediately  irrespective of the conference. The O-line will take some time to learn the SEC as the front sevens will be superior to those that they faced in the Big 12. The D-line is led by Brad Madison, Sheldon Richardson, a JUCO transfer, and speed rusher, Shane Ray. Zaviar Gooden and Andrew Wilson are their best linebackers, while the D-backs feature EJ Gaines, an outstanding corner and excellent athlete. Prediction: Fifth

 Vanderbilt: Vandy’s Coach, James Franklin, ( no relation to Missouri’s QB) has one of the toughest jobs in all of college football. Vanderbilt’s academic standards are among the highest in the nation, its stadium seats less than 40,000, and it plays in the best conference in the country. Recruiting can be extremely challenging as one is limited by academic standard, not only in signing an athlete, but who you can even target as a potential recruit. In other words, for every 100 SEC caliber football players that the conference recruits, the Commodores may have to take 50 or more off the board that they, simply cannot get into school. While for their SEC counterparts, it’s full speed ahead, as they have access to all 100 players. That means 50 players are gone off the top and now they must compete with Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia, etc.. for the remaining 50 recruits. Simply put, Coach Franklin is fighting with one hand tied behind his back. QB, Jordan Rodgers passed for 1524 yards in 2011 and ran for another 420. He threw 9 TD’s to 10 INT’s and had a 50% completion rate. Zac Stacy was Vandy’s leading rusher in 011 with 1193 yards gained and Jordan Matthews  (19.0 yards per catch) has developed into an excellent receiver. On defense, the Commodores are not at the same level as their SEC competitors. Their D-line, Linebackers, and D-backs are made up of players with inferior talent, but somehow, Vandy continues to play close games in the conference. Last year,Vandy lost to Florida 21-26, Georgia 28-33, Tennessee 21-27, & Arkansas 28-31. Amazing! Prediction: Sixth

Kentucky: A year ago, Maxwell Smith and Morgan Newton split time at QB and this competition will continue into fall camp. The Wildcats leading rusher, CoShik Williams, ran for 486 yards, while Josh Clemons, ran for 279. These numbers need to improve if Kentucky is going to have a chance to advance their win total (5-7 ) from a year ago. At wide out, La’rod King is their best receiver (40 receptions 598 yards, & 14.9 yards per catch.), he is the only receive to have more than 10 catches heading into 2012 season. The O-line does have an outstanding player in Larry Warford, a second team all SEC selection a year ago and Matt Smith should provide solid play for this unit! Kentucky’s best player on defense is strong safety, Martavius Neloms, that said, he does not have a lot of help in front or along side of him. Prediction: Seventh

West Division

LSU: This team has star power on both sides of the ball and as important, they have depth on either side of the line of scrimmage. QB was an issue in 2011 and Les Miles is hoping that Zach Mettenburger will provide some answers to having a consistent passing attack. The running back position is in the capable hands of Spencer Ware and wide outs, Russell Shepard (talented… but not as productive as ability suggests) and Odell Beckham provide the means to improve numbers at both RB & WR positions. The O-line has all five starters back, their average height and weight is 6’6” / 323 and they have quality depth at each position. On Defense, the line has four of the best players in the conference, Sam Montgomery, Barkevious Mingo, Anthony Johnson and Bernie Logan. The LB corp features Kevin Minter and the defensive backs are led by All-American cornerback Tyrann Mathieu and 2nd team All SEC, strong safety, Eric Reid. They play Alabama at home this year on Nov. 3rd…probably at night! Prediction: First

 Alabama: The Tide has won two of the last three national championships and are in a position to challenge for a third in 2012. QB AJ McCarron returns after leading his team to the national championship in 2011; he completed 67% of his passes, while throwing for 2,634 yards (16 TD’s to 5 INT’s.). Eddie Lacy rushed for 674 yards in 2011 in a back up roll to Trent Richardson and will be the starter in 2012. Duron Carter (Chris Carter’s son), Kenny Bell, & Kevin Norwood should be a step in the right direction to replacing Marquis Maze. The O-line may be the best in the country, this unit is led by Barrett Jones, the  Outland Award winner for best o-Lineman in the nation. The D-line has added JUCO talent in 2011, Jesse Williams at 6’4”  / 319, who will continue to  control the 0/1 seams at nose tackle. The LB’s were hit by the NFL Draft Dant’a Hightower (1st round pick) & Courtney Upshaw (2nd round pick). However, Nico Johnson and CJ Mosley return and this unit will remain one of the nations best! D-backs are led by CB Dee Milliner & strong safety Robert Lister. The game on Nov 3 in Baton Rouge will determine second or first place in the West for the Tide. Prediction: Second

Arkansas: QB Tyler Wilson is one of the toughest guys in the country at this position. He took some monster hits in the LSU and Alabama games and kept on keeping on throughout the game. Impressive! He passed for plus 3,600 yards with a 4 to 1 TD to INT rate! The only knock on this guy is his team’s performance in big games (Alabama 38-14 loss & LSU 41-17 pounding). If they are going to challenge in the West, Wilson must play better in these games. The good news is the Razorbacks get both the Tide & the Tigers at home! Knile Davis, one of the best running backs in America, returns after suffering a knee ending injury in 2011 and Cobi Hamilton will provide quality at the wide receiver position. The O-line returns only two starters and will need to transition quickly as Bama comes-A-calling in the third week of the season. The situation on defense is where Arkansas has a difficult time in hanging with LSU and Bama. Arkansas is strongest at the D-line position and Phil Steele rates them as the 26 best, while the D-backs come in at 39 and the LBs are not rated by Steele! These number need to improve or Arkansas will continue to struggle in when playing the elite in the SEC. Prediction: Third

Auburn: The Tigers have a very difficult September, they open with Clemson, travel to Mississippi State the next week, and end the month at home against LSU! If the Tigers are able to come to come out 1-1 in conference play or better, they will have set the stage to challenge Arkansas for third or perhaps a higher finish! The offensive backfield will have a different look as QB Brent Trotter (left early) and RB Michael Dyer (transfered to Arkansas State), early favorites to replace these guys are Kiehl Frazier at QB and Onterio McCalebb at RB. Both the offensive and defensive lines should be better then in 2011. The LB corps should improve on last years numbers and the D-backs should be one of the most improved units in the land! Prediction: Fourth

Texas A&M:

The second newcomer from the Big 12 seems to be the better fit, a football crazy state and one of the wildest fan bases in the country. Sadly, as in many other areas around the nation, traditional rivalries are being lost to conference realignment. As a result of A&M’s move to the SEC, they will not play Texas this season…. Oh well… they can still rustle each others cattle! They really do need to fix this and get back on the field ASAP! The Aggies will have a new signal caller, Johnny Manziel and a new RB, Christine (pronounced Chris tin) Michael. This is not the best scenario (new QB& RB) to enter a new conference, let alone, the best conference in the land, but in the words of Steve Murley, it is what it is… deal whit it…and life will get better! WR’s Ryan Swope & Uzoma Nwachukwu form one of the best receiving tandems in the country. While the O-line has 4 of its 5 starters back, it will be dealing with SEC front seven’s, a different animal then what they have seen in the Big 12’s! The D-line and D-backs will be down a tad and about as good respectively, the LB crew should be improved, this unit is led by Sean Potter, who is ably supported by Steven Jenkins & Jonathon Stewart. Prediction: Fifth

Mississippi State: This team can finish anywhere from third to seventh. QB Tyler Russell is a load, 6’4” 225, and his numbers should improve now that he is no longer sharing time with Chris Reif. The running game will be down do to the departure of 1000 yard rusher, Vick Ballard. He will be replaced by LaDarius Perkins. At wide out, they return their top four receivers and red shirt freshman, 6’4” Joe Morrow, is now ready to go as well! The O-line has only two starters returning and will need time to get up to get up to speed. The schedule is helpful to that end, the Bulldogs play Jackson State, Troy, & South Alabama all in September! On the D-line, State raided the JUCO ranks and brought in Denico Autry & Quay Evens, these two should provide immediate help! The line-backing corp is the best he has had according to Coach Mullen and the D-backs return 3 starters and their play should improve! Prediction: Sixth 

Ole Miss: Hugh Freeze has returned to Oxford as the head coach, having been an assistant here from 2005 through 2007. He has 16 starters back, 8 aside, including his QB and should be favored in three of his first four games. That said, the third week of the season the Rebels take on Texas at home and then, in the 5th week, travel to Tuscaloosa to challenge Alabama! Hey… 3-2 is a good start! The next five weeks Mississippi play’s, A&M, Auburn, a bye week, at Arkansas, and at Georgia. The do get Vanderbilt @ home on November 10, but the next week, they head to Baton Rouge to battle LSU and end the season at home against in state rival Mississippi State. Coach Freeze is looking at 4 to possibly 5 wins in his first season! Prediction: Seventh

 

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina |

PAC 12 and Counting

I remember when they were the PAC 8, let alone the PAC 10, and now the PAC 12. Unlike the Big 12 (10 teams) or the Big Ten (12 teams) the number of teams and league name / number  identification seen to matter out west. I have suggested that the Big 12 may have an interest in Boise State & BYU to get their membership back to 12.  I wonder if behind closed doors, the PAC 12 is not considering those same teams and going the SEC route to 14 teams. College football has entered an interesting time where change is the constant.

The PAC 12 is divided into the North & South Divisions. The North Division hosts Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, & California, while the South Division consists of Colorado, Utah, Southern Cal, UCLA, Arizona, & Arizona State.

The North Division

Oregon: Coach Chip Kelly has it going 0n in tree hugging country. The Ducks under his leadership have become one of the best programs in the country. In 2010, Oregon played Auburn for the national championship. Then, in 2011, they played in the biggest hyped game in the regular season, an opening  tilt against LSU. Later that same season they won the  Rose Bowl, beating an outstanding Wisconsin team!  Prior to Kelly, they were not even in the conversation. Oregon is all about speed, De’Anthony Thomas (RB) and Rahsaan Vaughn (WR) are two guys that should have hello on the front of their jersey and goodbye on the back, given the quickness and speed they possess. Look for Marcus Mariota to win the QB battle with Bryan Bennett, this due to the unexpected early departure of Darron Thomas to the NFL draft. Defensively, the Ducks have their best defensive line in Kelly’s tenure, led by DE Dion Jordan and DT Taylor Hart.  The Ducks have talent, depth, experience and speed at the linebacker & secondary positions. Prediction: First

Oregon State: I know I am pretty much alone picking the Beavers to finish second, yet, I think I am right for the following reasons: 1) 15 starters return, including QB, Sean Mannion, 6’5” & 215 (passed for 3,328 yards & 64.5 completion rate in 2011) ; 2) Mike Riley is an excellent coach and needs to have a good season; 3) the team is hungry for success. RB, Malcolm Agnew and WR, Markus Wheaton should help to improve the running & passing games respectively, while the O-line will improve its numbers from a year ago. Defensively, OSU will be better on all three levels, D-line,  LB, & DB. That said, like the O-line, they were really bad a year ago, so the improvement is relative. The key is the offense, they must cut back on turnovers, 2.58 per game, which put their weak defense on short fields. If they do that and improve their scoring average from 22 in 2011 to say 28 in 2012, they have a shot to be the most improved team in the PAC 12!  Prediction: Second 

Stanford: Andrew Luck is gone and the parties around the PAC 12 campus’ lasted well into the night knowing “that guy” was headed for the next level. The Fact is, he was/is the next level, playing these past few years to refine a game that was NFL ready during his sophomore year at Stanford. The Cardinal return 13 starters, 6 on offense, and 7 on defense… but they are out of “Luck” and simply not the same team. A year ago, Stanford led the country in Red Zone efficiency, 64 penetrations and 63 scores, for a 98% scoring rate. Raise your hand if you think Luck was the driving force behind their success on these short fields. No question about it, Luck’s ability, skill, & mental awareness were the primary factors of Stanford’s conversion rate in the RZ! That said, Stepfan Taylor is an excellent runner and will be their featured back. The O-line and receivers will be down from last year’s units.  The D-line is led by Terrence Stephens, a player who is double teamed on a regular basis, yet the line loses some of  the talent that took advantage of these doubles on Stephens. The Linebacker corp (Shayne Skos & Chase Thomas) will be improved from the 2011 season, while the secondary will be down from a year ago. Prediction: Third

California: This team has clearly underachieved in recent years. They always seem to be athletic and skilled, but clearly lacking in the mental toughness arena. I am sorry to say that while they are athletic and skilled, they just are not tough enough or least that is impression one gets when watching them under perform these past few years.  Wide receiver, Keenan Allen and offensive tackle, Matt Summers-Gavin, are two of the best players in the PAC 12. On defense, Aaron Tipoti is an outstanding D-tackle and Marc Anthony is an excellent corner. At linebacker, Cecil Whiteside, leads a talented group that really needs to step up this year. Prediction: Fourth

Washington  Steve Sarkisian started quickly at Washington, given the disaster he inherited, in 2007, 3-10 and 0-12 in 2008. Sarkisian took on LSU in his first game at Washington and played them to an 8 point loss, 31-23. He finished with a 5-7 record in 2009 and has had winning seasons the past two years with identical 7-6 records. He is currently 19-19 as he enters his fourth year and should be able to lead his team to their 3rd straight bowl appearance. No small accomplishment given what he started with in 2009. On Offense, Tight End Austin Seferian-Jenkins and O-lineman Eric Kohler are outstanding players @ their respective positions. QB Keith Price is one of the best in the PAC 12 and Kasen Williams is a terrific receiver. The defense is led CB Desmond Trufant and D-linemen Josh Shirley. Prediction: Fifth

Washington State: Instance offense has arrived at Pullman in the person of Mike Leach. This guy’s team is always fun to watch and will run the score board numbers like a slot machine in Las Vegas. Leach led Texas Tech from 2000-through 2009 and has a career record of 84-43. His challenge is similar to Sarkisian’s and them some, as the Cougars do not have the winning tradition of the Huskies. On Offense, Leach will try to get the ball to his all PAC 12 WR, Marquess Wilson, as often as is possible. His QB, Jeff Tuel, is one of the better players in the conference and is an important step in the right direction, especially for the offensive minded Leach. On Defense, LB Travis Long is the leader, however, Leach will have to keep the ball away from the opposition as his defense will be thin in 2012. Prediction: Sixth

The South Division

Southern Cal: Sully’s CFP and a whole bunch of other folks think this is the best team in the country, or at least the best 22 starters in the nation. SC has only 74 players on scholarship this season and an injury here or there could spell disaster. Their QB, Matt Barkley is best at his position in the country and WR’s, Marqies Lee & Robert Woods are the best tandem in the land. Interestingly, “Tailback U” is thin at running back, while a talented Curtis McNeal leads the way, injuries and transfers have decimated their depth. Their O-line loses Matt Kalil (4th pick in NFL’s 1st round) but returns four starters and should perform at a higher level.  Their defense is extremely talented and experienced, except on the D-line where they are extremely talented but inexperienced. Prediction: First

UCLA: Finally, things are back to normal, that is, the Trojans  and Bruins are one and two (at least in the South Division) as in days of old. Jim Mora takes over for the fired Rick Neuheisel, who I thought was a great hire for UCLA. Mora comes from the NFL and will bring a no nonsense approach- perform or sit! He has players, TE Joseph Fauria, O-tackle, Xavier Su’a-Filo, and R-back Jonathan Franklin are all talented and experienced players. On the Defensive side of the ball, the Bruins are led by LB, Patrick Larimore & CB, Aaron Hester. Prediction: Second

Arizona: There is no question that this program and this conference are better fits for Rich Rodriguez! Rodriguez wants to run around you, Michigan wants to knock you loose… enough said! Matt Scott is one of the top QB’s in the league and his favorite target to be, Dan Buckner (a transfer from Texas), will be one of the PAC 12 best receivers. Their feared defense, once known as the Desert Storm (34 flex for football junkies) of recent years, has been more like the Desert Puff. This unit will feature LB, Brian Wagner & Safety, Marquis Flowers.  Prediction: Third

Utah: Kyle Whittingham is 65-25 at Utah. Last year they started the season 0-4 in the PAC 12 but destroyed BYU, 54-10, in the “Holy War”! This gave immediate rise to “see, they are in with the big boys now and are over matched”. The Utes, responded in true Lee Corso fashion: “not so fast my friend” and won 4 of their next 5 PAC 12 contests. On ‘O’ the Utes feature, arguably, the best running back in the conference, John White and a terrific O-lineman, Sam Brenner! Safety, Brian Blechen and  D-tackle Dave Kruger are the featured players on ‘D’. Prediction: Fourth

Arizona State: Todd Graham has made few, if any, friends with his handling of his Pittsburgh sayonara! Graham, reportedly, told his players of his departure via a forwarded text. I get timing can be an issue, but given the trust players and families put in you as a coach…timing be damned! A face to face is required, period, end of discussion! Graham inherits an outstanding running back, Cameron Marshall, WR, Jamal Mills (who was the only player in the country to score a TD by returning a kick-off, a punt and throwing a pass), and a very good O-tackle in Even Finkenburg. Linebacker, Brandon Magee and D-lineman, Will Sutton are the best players on that side of the ball for the Sun Devils. Prediction: Fifth.

Colorado: The Buffaloes return 9 starters from a 3-10 team, 3 on offense (without the QB) and 6 on defense. Coach Jon Embree has a huge challenge in front of him as he enters his second season. Offensive tackle, David Bakhtiari, is one of the best offensive lineman in the PAC 12; while defensive tackle, Will Pericak, leads the way on the other side of the ball! It is unlikely that Buffs will be leaving the cellar in the South Division and less likely that they will be Bowling in 2012 season! Prediction: Sixth

Championship Game: Outside of the SEC Championship (perhaps LSU and Georgia, Alabama vs Florida, or South Carolina against Arkansas) the Southern Cal vs Oregon match-up will create the most interest nationally. The teams do meet in the regular season on Nov. 3rd at the Coliseum in Los Angeles. If healthy, USC wins both of these games, if injuries came into play, SC is, by far, the more vulnerable team and Oregon wins its second PAC 12 championship.

Posted in Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, PAC 12, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah |

Big Ten: Leaders & Legends

When the Big Ten first came out with the names, Leaders & Legends, I thought what are they drinking…. and man… I could really use that on Saint Paddy’s Day. I am always up for a short escape from reality to assist Saint Patrick with those damn snakes on the 17th and I was convinced that what ever Jimmy Delany and his Big Ten cohorts were sipping or chugging that led them to Leaders & Legends would absolutely put Harp and Jameson on the bench!

I must say, I have made a 180 degree turn (unlike Dennis Rodman, who once said on ESPN he was going to make a 360 degree adjustment to his behavior, I turned to my wife, Polly and said “that is the most accurate thing Dennis has ever said and he does not know he said it”) on this and now get the concept of future (Leaders) and past (Legends). The Big Ten Conference molds leadership and celebrates accomplishments.. The Big Ten, a conference for the ages! Ok, maybe that is a little over the top and yet, I must admit, I have warmed up to the names.

That said, what about the upcoming 2012 races in the conference’s two divisions? Let’s take a peek!

Leaders 

 Ohio State: OSU has 15 starters back including their very talented QB, Braxton Miller, a solid running game, led by Jordan Hall and Carlos Hyde (their fastest back – 4.4 in the 40), very good wide receivers and an All American at tight end, Jake Stoneburner. The O-line is talented but inexperienced, and Miller’s play-making ability will be important, especially early, as the this group gains experience. Their D-line is led by two of the best players in the country, DT Johnathan Hankins and DE John Simon. Their LB corp is talented and experienced as the Bucks return Storm Kline and Etienne Sabino, while the secondary returns all four starters. Urban Meyer has arrived at OSU and appears ready to make a Nick Saban (LSU & Alabama) like run by leading two different university’s (Florida & Ohio State) to the promised land. Not this year though, as OSU is on probation and not eligible to play in the conference championship game or a bowl game. Schedule is neutral: play at Wisconsin and Michigan State and host Nebraska & Michigan. Prediction: First

Wisconsin: This may very well be the best team in the Leaders, which would be typical of the past couple of seasons, best team but far from the best individual talent. I do not know of a program in all of college football that does a better job of developing its players than the Badgers. The QB position may be filled this year by yet another transfer, Danny O’Brien, and like Russell Wilson, he comes to Madison from an ACC school, this time Maryland. The like Russell Wilson should end there, as while O’Brien has the ability to extend plays in the pocket, he does not possess the ability to escape that Wilson displayed on a regular basis. Furthermore, he may not be able to pick up the offense as quickly or win over the team’s unconditional support in such a dramatic fashion as Wilson. At RB, the Badgers may have the best one two punch in all of college football, Montee Ball & James White. Wide receiver is thin after Jared Abbrederis, although Jacob Pedersen should continue Wisconsin’s tradition of outstanding quality at tight end. The O-line is one of the best in the country, as OT Ricky Wagner and center Travis Frederick are the best at their respective positions in the Big Ten. The strength of the Badger defense is at linebacker with Mike Taylor and Chris Borland, who are two of the Big Ten’s best. The D-line has two starters back as does the secondary, look for excellent play from Shelton Johnson at strong safety. Schedule is favorable: Play Ohio State and Michigan State @ home  & at Nebraska and  the Badgers do not play Michigan! Prediction: Second

Illinois: The Illini return 14 starters from a team that began the season at 6-0 and then proceeded to lose 6 in a row, see its coach Ron Zook fired, and then win its final game, the Fight Hunger Bowl against UCLA. Tim Beckman, who comes to the Illini via Toledo (21-16) was hired as Zook’s replacement. Nathan Scheelhaase should be one of the Big Ten’s best at the QB position, while the running back position is solid with Donovonn Young and Josh Ferguson carrying the rock.  The wide outs and O-line will need to improve as the season progresses if they are to finish in the top half of the Leaders. Defensively the Illini have an outstanding talent at each of the three levels: DT, Akeen Spence and DE, Michael Buchanan, at LB, Jonathon Brown, and at CB, Terry Hawthorne. Schedule is not favorable: Play Ohio State, Wisconsin, & Michigan all on the road! Prediction: Third

Penn State: PSU needs some love. It is important to discriminate between the players and coaches who are there now from those who made the decisions that led to this sex scandal debacle! Bill O’Brien, his staff, and the current players had nothing to do with any of this and any action or reaction to them should be related to their behavior, not something that happened over a decade ago that was instigated by others. The Lions are coming off a 9-4 season that led them to Madison (9-2 at that time) and a shot to play in the first ever Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis. They were exposed in that contest by a superior Wisconsin team, where they were walloped 45-7, and then they lost their bowl game to Houston 30-14. The Nittany Lions have 9 starters back, 5 on offense, including their 2 QBs, Paul Jones & Matt McGloin, and RB Silas Redd, who should be one of the conference’s best.  While the receivers, led by Justin Brown, will be slightly improved, the O-line will be down. Gerald Hodges (LB)  and Jordan Hill (DT) will lead the defense which has only 4 starters returning. Schedule is favorable: play Wisconsin & Ohio state at home, @ Nebraska, and do not play Michigan or Michigan State ! Prediction: Fourth 

Purdue: Danny Hope enters his fourth season and does so with his best team. In fact, the Boilermakers have a good chance to win their final five games (see schedule on site) of the season and should be favored in three of their first four games to begin the season. An eight win season is very possible and would improve their position from the lower half of the Leaders to an upper echelon finish. The QB’s are good, as Caleb TerBush and Robert Marve have both played well at times, while RB Ralph Bolden (if healthy… surgery in January) provides quality at that position. Wide receiver is a question mark as two starters, OJ Ross (academic issues) and Antavian Edison (legal issues.. charges dropped) were in Hope’s doghouse and need to get serious about school and behavior. The Defense is led by Kawann Short, an outstanding DT and the Boilers do have 7 of their top 8 D-linemen back for 2012. Given that linebacker and secondary play should be at least as good as a year ago, these units, with a very good D-line, should have better numbers. Schedule is Favorable: play Wisconsin and Michigan at home, @ OSU and do not meet MSU or Nebraska!  Prediction: Fifth

Indiana: Indiana has 15 starters, 8 on offense including the QB, Tre Roberson, back as Kevin Wilson enters his second year in Hoosierville. The team’s eleven losses in 2011 tied them for the worst loss total in Indiana football history. There is no doubt that Indiana will be better and should start the season at 3-0 (Indiana State, @ U-Mass, & Ball State), followed by a bye week, and then, most important game of Wilson’s tenure at Indiana. The Hoosiers travel to Chicago to take on Northwestern in week five. A win there and a bowl game is possible and what a great story for the Hoosiers from 1-11 in 2011 to a 4-0 start in 2012. The schedule will get tougher from that point but with the confidence that 4-0 start can generate, there are winnable games as they go forward. Schedule is not favorable: play at Wisconsin, OSU, and Michigan State!  Prediction: Sixth

 

Legends 

 

Michigan: Michigan returns 13 starters, including 6 on an offense that fields one of the most explosive players in college football, QB Denard Robinson. While Robinson is not a great passer (55% completion rate and 20 TD to 15 INT)  he is effective given his explosive running ability (1349 total yards gained). The O-line has  3 of 5 starters returning for the 2012 season and left tackle, Taylor Lewan, is one of the nation’s best. Their running backs, led by Fitzgerald Toussaint and wide receivers receivers featuring Roy Roundtree, are among the best in the conference. The defense does not have the individual talent of years past, though they manage to play up to their talent level and are commited to playing assignment defense as well as any D unit in the country. Let’s be frank, they are not the most talented team in the Legends, but based on their accomplishments and coaching, they are the most focused! Brady Hoke and Denard Robinson returned Michigan Football to prominence with an 11-2 record in 2011 that included an OT Sugar bowl win, 23-20 over Va-Tech and, oh yeah, they finally beat OSU 40-34 after 7 straight losses. This team, however, is a long way from satisfied! They have stated on many occasions that a Big Ten championship and a Rose Bowl berth are their #1-A and 1-B goals. Schedule is not favorable: play at Nebraska and OSU, home against MSU and do not play Wisconsin!  Prediction: First

Michigan State: MSU is the most talented defense in not only the Legends but the entire conference (8 starters return). In fact, they are one of the best “D’s” in the country. Defensive End William Gholston, Cornerback Johnny Adams, and safety Isaiah Lewis lead the way for this very talented group. That said, the strongest unit on the defense is at linebacker; Denicos Allen, Max Bullough, Chris Norman, and hybrid DE/OLB Marcus Rush. On offense the running game is in good hands, as Le’Veon Bell is one of the conference’s best and the O-line is returning a solid 3 starters. The offensive question marks for State is at QB, as record setting Kirk Cousins has left the building and although his replacement, Andrew Maxwell, has been prepping in the wings for two years, he is clearly an unknown.  The receivers are also new, which is not a good combination when coupled with a new QB. Mark Dantonio is an excellent coach and has the defense that will give him the time he needs to develop a personality with all the new personnel on offense. Schedule is neutral: play at Wisconsin and Michigan and host Nebraska & OSU! Prediction: Second

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers return 14 starters to their team this year, 7 on either side of the ball, including their QB, Taylor Martinez. The running game features power-back Rex Burkhead and speedy-back Ameer Abdullah, while the O-line must replace 3 starters. The Huskers had to replace 3 starters a year ago and did so with a good result based on how they recruit. The receivers are experienced and have good size & speed, though the question for this passing attack will be, as always, can Martinez get them the ball down field? On defense, NU raided the Junior College ranks to try to bolster their performance at linebacker and defensive back positions. The D-line returns 7 of their top 10 from a year ago and should preform well up-front. Schedule is Neutral: play at Ohio state & Michigan State and host Wisconsin & Michigan! Prediction: Third

 

Iowa: One is never quite sure where to place this team in the preseason. Like Wisconsin, the Hawks develop players that do not have the accolades coming out of high school that other Big Ten programs flaunt. Iowa returns 11 starters, 6 on offense, including QB James Vandenberg, who should provide solid leadership at that position. The running back position has been like a revolving door (14 running backs have left the program since 2002 with the eligibility to continue to play).  Clearly, Ferentz needs to stabilize these defections. True freshman Greg Gorman may be the answer at RB this year. At wide out, Marvin McNutt, the Big Ten WR of the year in 2011, has left Iowa City for the NFL. The 2012 unit, led by Keenan Davis and CJ Fiedorowicz, has size, some speed and is experienced.  On defense, their linebacker (Christian Kirksey & James Morris) and secondary (Micah Hyde & Tanner Miller) play should improve. The area of concern is the defensive line, which at this point is a problem. A deficiency here can negatively affect the entire defensive scheme. Schedule is not favorable: play at Michigan State & Michigan, host Nebraska and do not Wisconsin or Ohio State!  Prediction: Fourth

 

Minnesota: Minnesota returns 12 starters, 6 a side, and QB MarQueis Gray, who led the Golden Gophers in rushing last year with 966 yards, is back. His passing percentage of 50% and his TD to INT ratio of 1 to1 must improve if the Gophers are to move in front of Northwestern in the Legends. At running back, James Gillum, a JC transfer, should provide immediate help at this position. At wide receiver, the loss of Da’jon McKnight will hurt, especially coupled with Gray’s struggles throwing the ball. That said, If Brandon Green and Malcolm Moulton are able to step up their game and Gray improves his accuracy, this unit could become effective. The O-line is on pace to be better in Jerry Kill’s second year. On defense, they really can only get better and should be able to do so on all three levels. Schedule is Neutral: play @ Wisconsin & Nebraska and host Michigan State & Michigan! Prediction: Fifth

Northwestern: The Wildcats return 10 starters, 5 on either side of the ball, and while QB Dan Persa has graduated, he was hurt much of last year and Kain Colter did gain valuable experience. The running backs and O-line, led by 6′-7” 310 pound Pat Ward, should play at a higher level. At wide out Kyle Prater has transferred from USC and should (if healthy) provide immediate help at that position. Defense is an issue, as the D-line and especially the secondary are not overly talented and lack experience…. not a good combination! The linebacker corp is solid, but will have to provide help in both in front and to the rear given the relative lack of strength of these units. Schedule is not Favorable: play at Michigan & Michigan, host Nebraska, and do not play Wisconsin or OSU  Prediction: Sixth

In the Championship Game, since OSU is not eligible, its Wisconsin vs Michigan. Michigan’s schedule which included non-conference match-ups against Alabama and Notre Dame, finally hits the wall against the Badgers O-line and power running game. Wisconsin wins its second Big Ten crown in as many years!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Big Ten, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin |

Penn State… Now what?

What’s next with Penn State? Now rumors are flying that Coach Paterno knew the depths of Sandusky’s depravity and yet, told Tim Curley, then Penn State AD, to make the sexual abuse scandal go away.

Apparently, Administration had made a decision to report Sandusky’s sexual abuse behavior, but following a meeting between Paterno and Curley, an email surfaced outlining a change in course as to how to handle the situation.

If you recall, Penn State was coming off a 4 -7 season in 2000 followed by 5-6 record in 2001 and the “Joe must go” movement was gaining momentum. Penn State would have one winning season from 2000 through 2004 and one wonders if the school officials determined that if the Sandusky’s criminal behavior became public knowledge, it would force them to remove Coach Paterno.

Penn State did get back on track in 2005 as they went 11-1 in that season and Paterno never experienced another losing season. Coach Paterno then went on to break Eddie Robinson’s most wins at the division I level by beating Illinois 10-7 on Oct. 29, 2011.

The family has asked Pennsylvania’s attorney general, Louis Freeh (former Director of the FBI) to make public these alleged e-mails. The Paterno family spokesperson/Lawyer, Wick Sollers, is saying that the emails are out of context and the person who leaked the material used “selected e-mails” to smear Coach Paterno.

The attorney general’s office said they do not release materials earmarked for a grand jury and are not responsible for the leaks.

Rumors abound:

1) Penn State will receive the Death Penalty (football season canceled for at least one year)  from the NCAA for lack of institutional control.

Fact: I can find nothing from the NCAA on their version of the  Death Penalty being applied or even being considered for Penn State at this time!

2) Big Ten is considering removing Penn State from the conference.

Fact: Absolutely False (cannot find any discussion from any Big Ten officials on this anywhere)

3) The Big Ten Network was soft on reporting the Sandusky sex crimes and how Penn State handled the situation.

Fact: Big Ten Network had an open discussion with Sports Illustrated on their coverage of the Sandusky sex scandal and Penn State subsequent responses. Soft vs reported was the crux of the discussion.

This is a criminal matter not a sports discipline issue. Penn State needs to release all information to the authorities, reiterate its absolute commitment to keeping children safe and challenge the perception that Penn State continues to foster a climate where the university is placing its image in front of a child’s well-being.

Posted in Illinois, Penn State |

New Look Big 12

Gone from the Big 12 are Texas A&M and Missouri (SEC) for the 2012 season, these teams followed Nebraska (Big Ten) and Colorado (PAC 12) who had departed to their respective leagues for the 2011 campaign. For a time, it looked like Texas and other Big 12 teams may be headed to the PAC 12, that did not happen and it now appears that the Big 12 is  emerging as strong or even stronger, than in the past.

West Virginia and TCU have joined the league and one could certainly make the case that these teams are as good or better than A&M and Missouri in recent years. One does not need to be psychic or a  time clairvoyant to suspect that the Big 12 may set its sights on Boise State and BYU. This would allow the Big 12 to re-establish a two division league with a conference championship game. These teams have a strong presence in the national psyche and BYU has a 64,045 capacity stadium which would make them the 3rd largest in the conference behind Texas 100,119 & Oklahoma at 82,112.  While Boise State beat Oklahoma, 43-42, in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl. This game had everything: trick plays, overtime, occasional defense, and even a marriage proposal.

The North would/could consist of Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, BYU, & Boise State, while the South would host Texas, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, & Oklahoma State. A very good line-up that would have representation in seven different states. The one area of expansion that I believe the Big 12 needs to avoid is allowing another Texas team into the league. Those of us old enough to remember the Southwest Conference, remember the acronym, SWC, being referenced as not the Southwest Conference, but rather as the So What Conference! This was due, in no small part, to the fact that the entire conference was in Texas.  A seven state league has clear advantages in marketing and national interest to a “good old boy” Texas Rodeo!

So what about the here and now in 2012? I think it would be accurate to say that 5 teams have an excellent to good shot at the title: Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU, Texas & Kansas State.

Oklahoma has 15 starters back, including their QB, Landry Jones, WR Kenny Stills and a very talented O-line that returns 4 of 5 starters. The D-line is both young and talented, while the L-backers and Secondary are both talented and experienced. If the D-line is able to pressure the pass, this will be the difference between another 10 win season or something much more in 2012. I must say, I do not like OU’s schedule; @ WV, @ TCU and as always,Texas in Dallas. That said, I am counting on “Big Game Bob” finding a-way in these away games. Prediction: First

West Virginia gives new meaning to the concept of speed at the wide receiver position, Tavon Austin (1186 Total Receiving Yards) and Stedman Bailey (1279 TRY) are sudden! Last year against the vaunted LSU secondary, Bailey and especially Austin made Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu look tardy as the Mountaineers passed for 463 against a secondary some thought was the best in the country. Not me…Bama’s was better… but that is another story. WV’s QB Geno Smith is an outstanding player, who passed for over 4300 yards in 2011. The O-line plays in a pass happy scheme and is a terrific pass blocking unit but needs to improve its run block skills, if WV is to keep Big 12 D’s honest. The Mountaineer D is why I am not picking them first! Prediction: Second 

Texas has one of the most popular coaches in all of college football, Mack Brown and one of the winningest in Texas history at 141-39 since taking over the program in 1998. That said, recent won/lost history has not been where the Longhorn faithful demand it be, 5-7 in 2010 and 8-5 in 2011 will simply not cut it in Texas. Texas has 15 starters back for the 2012 season, 9 on offense, including their QB, David Ash. Mack absolutely needs to settle on Ash and let him play through mistakes. Colt McCoy younger brother, Case, should be relegated to the backup roll, allowing Ash to focus down field not over his shoulder. Malcolm Brown is an excellent runner and their O-line is the most experienced in years. Texas’ defense may be the best in the Big 12 and the ‘Horns’ do boast the best secondary in the conference. If QB play improves Texas can win the Big 12… However, I believe high quality QB play is a year away. Prediction: Third

TCU: Gary Patterson has led TCU back to the big time, he has taken his university from the WAC to C-USA to the Mountain West and now, to the Big 12. On this journey, he was named Coach of the Year in C-USA (2002), MWC  (2005 & 2009) and named Top Coach in 2009 by 55 college football coaches polled by ESPN. Not to mention, a Rose Bowl victory over an outstanding Wisconsin team in 2010. TCU returns 11 starters for the 2012 season 6 on offense, including the QB and 5 on ‘D’. The Frogs will not be even remotely intimated vs a Big 12 schedule, as they are 16-4 against AQ opponents since the inception of the BCS in 1998. The schedule is the real challenge, quality opponents will now surface on a week to week basis, not two or three a year as in past. In 2012, TCU will play 10 BCS non-conference and conference games.  The Frogs’ Big 12 schedule is challenging: @ WV and OSU and end the season against three of the Big 12 best, home vs Kansas State, @ Texas and host Oklahoma to end regular season. Prediction: Fourth 

Kansas State plays at  OU, WV, & TCU & Texas at home on the last day of the regular season. Last year, The Wildcats lived a charmed life, they beat Texas A&M and Baylor by 1, Eastern Kentucky by 3, Miami Fl. & Texas by 4,  Missouri, Texas Tech, and Iowa State by 7. In other words 8 of their 10 wins were by 7 or less points, they also were a plus 12 in the turnover battle, 27-15. It will be tough to match those numbers! Prediction: Fifth

Texas Tech  returns 17 starters, most in the Big 12 and do play Oklahoma, West Virginia, & Texas at home. This team is coming off a 5-7 season and are ably led by Tommy Tuberville. To be honest, I am not sure where to place this squad. Their schedule is favorable, they are experienced, and well coached. If you are the betting sort… pay attention to this team… point spreads will be less of an issue…. as I do not believe these experienced players and talented coaches will care who is at the other end of the field or where they are playing! Prediction: Sixth

Oklahoma State has only 12 starters back and just 4 on offense. Their all universe wide out, Justin Blackmon and record setting QB, Brandon Weeden, have left the building! Coach Gundy and staff will do a good job and keep the cowboys competitive, but they will be hard pressed to finish higher than 7th in the standings. One good thing for the Pokes is they do play TCU, Texas, and West Virginia at home. Prediction: Seventh

Baylor won 10 games a year ago and actually had the Heisman Trophy winner in Robert Griffin the III. All these months later it still sound like science fiction!  Baylor, 10 wins, beat Texas, beat Oklahoma, Heisman winner, c’mom man, wake up, this is Waco not wacko! Art Briles and his team lived a dream a year ago and the confidence that the 14 returning starters gained in 2011 will be high as they head into the 2012 season. That said, RG3 is gone and so is his ability to make something out of not much. In 13 games a year ago, Baylor scored 40 or more points 9 times. I just don’t think with Griffin graduated that points will come in the same quantity and the ‘D’s quality is suspect, as they did give up 30 or more points 10 times. Prediction: Eight

Kansas Charlie Weis and Dayne Crist not in South Bend… but in Lawrence? Kansas? I better click my heels! I can not wait to see what happens with these two! Charlie has 14 starters back, 7 on each side of the ball. The offense should be better immediately, the D however, is another story! Last year they gave up over 40 points 8 times and Charlie is somewhat clueless with that side of the ball or it certainly appeared that way with his ND teams! Prediction: Ninth

 Iowa State Paul Rhodes is 18-20 at Iowa State… How good of a coach is this guy? Remember Gene Chizik? Rumblin, bumblin, & stumblin around Ames? I think 5-19! My thought, if I were an AD in the SEC and the football job opened up at my school, I’d be talking to Rhodes! Simply based on what Chizik did with the Cyclones and then his success at Auburn coupled with what Rhodes has done with same Iowa State program vs Big 12 teams! Prediction: Tenth

Posted in Baylor, Big 12, Oklahoma State, Texas |

Big East or Big Bust

The Big East is in the news for a lot of reasons the past few months, none of them particularly good news for the conference. Everything from Pitt & Syracuse leaving the league for the ACC in 2013,  to actually losing its best football program, West Virginia, to the Big 12 for the 2012 campaign. The national perception is the Big East status as an AQ or BCS conference, before all that stuff actually goes away in 2014, is that they do not belong in with the other five AQ conferences (Big 12, ACC, Big Ten PAC 12 & SEC) and Notre Dame.

There is a lot of discussion on how this four-team playoff will affect the current non AQ conferences.  I think the formula for determining who gets in and who goes to a high paying bowl game will have a very similar affect on the Big East, that is, their not going to these games! This league will be treated very similarly to Conference-USA (C-USA) or the Mountain West Conference (MWC)  in an open market selection process. In fact, had Utah, BYU, and TCU stayed in the MWC, with the addition of Boise State, that alignment would have created a superior conference to the current Big East.

The Big East does have a solution to their woes and I can give it to you in two words…. Notre Dame! The Irish are current members of the conference in every sport except football,  and ND’s inclusion on the gridiorn would equal…game over … Big East would be back in the mix. Clearly, this would take a miracle,  so here is the plan: the Big East Presidents should stage a fake meeting in Chicago.  Shortly after their arrival, they clandestinely sneak out of their hotel & head east on 90-94 to South Bend. It is critical to this plan that they be armed with wheat bread & wine with a hope to leave Indiana with body & blood… a new meaning re: transubstantiation! Hey, given the current situation …it is worth a shot!

The current Big East has eight teams: Syracuse, Rutgers, Connecticut, Temple, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Louisville & South Florida. Here are some of the challenges faced by the conference:

1) The league’s largest stadium is Temple’s ( ironically, the Owls were kicked out of the Big East in 2004 for failing to generate adequate fan support) Lincoln Financial which seats 68,532, yet Temple averages only 28,060 per home game. Every other major football conference has arenas that seat in excess of 80,000 and the seats are occupied. This is clearly an eye sore for a major conference,  as the TV cameras pan all those empty seats. The Big East average attendance in 2010 was last among the AQ conferences at 45,028 compared to the SEC’s 76,719, Big Ten’s 72,106, Big 12’s 62,975, PAC 12’s 53,919, and ACC’s 51,493.

2) Their performance in BCS Bowls as been less than stellar, but not bad at 3-3 since 2006. Louisville did win the Orange Bowl against Wake Forest, 24-13, in 2006 and West Virginia won the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, pounding Oklahoma 48-28 and their annihilation of Clemson in 2011, 70-33. The problem is West Virginia, who has two of the Big East’s three wins is now gone.

3) What happens when Pitt & Syracuse leave in 2013 and do all or some of the teams targeted by the Big East go the way of TCU?  What really will happen with Boise State, San Diego State, Central Florida, Houston, Southern Methodist, Memphis in 2013 & with Navy scheduled to join the in 2015?  Who knows?

4) Syracuse’s Doug Marrone is the tenured dean of Big East coaches with a total of 4 years of experience with the the Orange… that’s right… 4 years. This merry-go-round of coaches suggests that Big East coaching positions are more akin to stepping stones than destination points. This coaching carousel is reflective of the conferences overall instability and needs to be addressed if they are to stay among college football elite.

As for as who wins the Big East in 2012, look for Skip Holtz’s South Florida and Charlie Strong’s Louisville (both ND guys… so maybe this transubstantiation thing will work?) to battle for the title.

Cincinnati did win10 games a year ago, including a win in the Liberty Bowl over Vanderbilt, however, Butch Jones (3rd year) has only 4 starters back on offense and must replace his QB.

Paul Chryst (1st year),  Pittsburgh’s head coach has 14 starters back, 9 on offense including his QB. Pitt did pound South Florida a year ago, 44-17 and beat Louisville 21-14. Pitt is clearly in the mix and Chryst will bring a Big Ten smash mouth style of play into the Conference.

Connecticut’s schedule is not favorable for a title run this year as they must play South Florida and Louisville on the road. Paul Pasqualoni will have to draw from his many years of experience to keep his team competitive.  He has added good talent from the Junior College ranks at QB and at wide receiver with transfers.

Rutgers has a new coach, Kyle Flood, who is replacing the man who put Rutgers football back in the national spotlight, Greg Schiano. The Scarlet Knights were 9-4 a year ago and do return 15 starters, 7 on offense, including the QB. The conference schedule is not helpful as they must play Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and South Florida on the road.

Syracuse’s non conference schedule is ambitious this year,  as they take on 4 BCS opponents (somebody needs to talk/yell to/at the AD) and Temple, while an improved program will struggle as it relearns the Big East. Look for the Orange and Owls to be home during the bowl season in 2012.

Big East Predictions

1) Louisville, 2) South Florida, 3) Pittsburgh, 4) Cincinnati. 5) Rutgers, 6) Connecticut, 7) Syracuse, 8) Temple.

 

 

Posted in AAC, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse |