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ACC Divisional Predictions for 2012 Season

The ACC

Atlantic Division

The Atlantic appears to be the stronger of the ACC’s  two divisions in 2012, at least at the top, with Florida State and Clemson being, arguably, the two best teams in the league. Florida State and Clemson play in Tallahassee on Sept. 22 and I look for the Seminoles to find a way in this contest at Doak Campbell Stadium. That said, Florida State’s early season schedule is incredibly weak; 2 FCS teams; Murray State & Savannah State and a down divisional foe in Wake Forest. Clemson, on the other hand, will be battle tested as they open the 2012 season in Atlanta against the Auburn Tigers from the mighty SEC.

Tom O’Brian appears to have his best team this year in his tenure at NC State and should make a run at 3rd place in the Atlantic. They do play Clemson at home on Nov. 17 and could challenge the Tigers for second place in the division, if they are able to hold serve at home.

Frank Spaziani’s club at BC has 10 offensive starters back, including the QB and 7 returnees on the defensive side of the ball. This unit will clearly be more experienced but has to play at both Florida State (Oct. 13) and NC State (Nov. 24) and conference crossover games against Va Tech  and at Georgia Tech will not help their overall conference record. I look for BC to finish 4th in the Atlantic.

Randy Edsall’s time at Maryland has been eventful, as 24 players and counting, have left the program since his arrival at College Park. Look for Maryland to improve on their 2-10 record in 2011 and move in front of Jim Grobe’s Demon Deacons unit from Wake in the Atlantic Division.

ACC’s Atlantic Division for 2012 projected final standings:

1) Florida State, 2) Clemson, 3) NC. State, 4) Boston College,  5) Maryland, & 6) Wake Forest.

The Coastal Division 

I believe four teams have an excellent shot to a shot at winning this division: Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Miami.

I like North Carolina’s schedule as they play divisional foes Va Tech (Oct. 6) and Georgia Tech (Nov. 10) at home in Kenan Stadium and do not play Florida State or Clemson in conference crossover games.

Both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech play Clemson at Clemson Memorial and Va Tech faces the FSU Seminoles at home on the 8th of November. A huge game right out of the gate has Va Tech hosting Georgia Tech on Sept. 3 at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. The winner will have taken an important step toward the divisional crown.

Miami’s September should give us good insight as to where Al Golden has his club. They travel to Manhattan, Kansas to take on a Bill Snyder’s revived Kansas State on Sept. 8 and then head for Atlanta to stall the Ramblin Wreck (a 1930 Ford Model A Sport Coupe that serves as one of the team’s mascots) from Georgia Tech on Sept. 22 and then, finally, battle NC State on Sept. 29 at home.  If Miami survives their September challenge, it sets the stage for a wild October as they play Notre Dame (Oct. 6) in Chicago,  North Carolina (Oct.13) and Florida State (Oct. 20) at home. So if Miami is to win the Coastal… they will have earned it. Oh yeah, and don’t forget that on Nov. 1, Va Tech comes a calling!

Virginia’s Mike London led the Cavaliers to an 8-5 season in 2011 and their first bowl appearance since 2007. The schedule is difficult as they face G-Tech (Sept. 15) and Va-Tech (Nov. 24) on the road and have non conference tilts vs Penn State at home (Sept. 8) and TCU on the road (Sept. 22). I believe Virginia will determine who will win the Coastal, I just do not believe it will be them. Last year they beat G-Tech 24-21, Miami 28-21, & Florida State 14-13 just prior to getting pounded the next weekend by Virginia Tech 38-0. Last year London’s squad did not always get their opponents A game and were able to “sneak up” on some teams. Their “sneaking ‘ days are gone, evidenced by the 38 to zip tail whipping  Va Tech put on them in their season finale showdown.  In that type of focused environment vs a quality opponent, like Va Tech, the Cavaliers were not able to respond. That said, their conference crossover games are favorable, as they play Maryland (Oct. 13) and Wake Forest (Oct. 20) at home.

Finally, Duke has a chance to go into their Virginia Game at 4-1, this due to some fine scheduling by their Athletic Director, Kevin White (former ND AD). The Virginia game is at Durham and if the Devils are successful at home, they will be 5-1 at the mid point of the 2012  season. Sorry, it won’t matter….. the next six games are @ Va-Tech, home vs UNC, @ Florida State, Clemson at home, at G-Tech, and Miami in Durham. Duke will finish at best, note; at best, 5-7

ACC’s Coastal Division for 2012 projected finish:

1) UNC, 2) Va-Tech, 3) Virginia, 4) G-Tech, 5) Miami, 6) Duke

Florida State vs North Carolina in the ACC Title Game:

Winner: Florida State

Posted in ACC, Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest |

NFL Draft 6 through 10

6 Dallas Cowboys (From the Washington Redskins via Saint Louis Rams)

Need: Cornerback

Pick: Morris Claiborne; CB LSU (6’0’’, 185, 40 Time 4.45) In 2010, Claiborne played opposite Patrick Peterson, a LSU cornerback that was a  first round draft pick in that season & yet Morris’ skill did not go unrecognized.  In fact, many SEC observers thought Claiborne’s coverage skills were superior to Paterson’s. He is gifted with quick feet, a long reach, and fluid hips that allow him to effectively engage receivers in press, press-bail, or off coverage. While he was used primarily in man, he has demonstrated the skill, discipline, and hitting power to be feared in zone coverage. Claiborne began his career as a wide receiver, so his ball skills are top shelf. He is very comfortable breaking on a ball, securing the interception and advancing the ball back up the field. Like other gifted athletes, he needs to continue to develop his technique as often his pure athleticism is more than enough to get the job done. For Claiborne to enjoy the success he has experienced in the SEC, his continue emphasis on skill development will be critical. In the NFL, you cannot simply rely on your talent, skill acquisition coupled with talent will determine your success. By all accounts, Claiborne is a willing student of the position and is committed to his continued growth in this area. His only physical drawback is his lack of upper body strength. The Cowboys can easily address this in the weight room. This is a very good pick for the”Boys” as Claiborne should provide needed help and do so quickly!

 

7 Tampa Bay (From the Jacksonville Jaguars)

Need: Cornerback

            Pick: Mark Barron, Safety Alabama; (6’2’’, 218, 40 Time  4.56) Barron is the number one rated safety in this draft. He possesses the size, strength, and instincts to make him a good to great player in the NFL. However, there are mild concerns about his straight line speed and serious questions about his tackling. Further, he has little experience in man coverage. Barron did play some man in Bama’s 3-4 scheme, lining up opposite the slot, but not very often. He is terrific in zone coverage and demonstrated superior ball-hawking skills. His ability to read the QB allowed him to lead the SEC with 7 interceptions in 2010. He is effective in run support and likes to go for the big hit. Much more effective in playing down hill (straight line) than on angles. Barron understands the safety position and subsequently does do a good job of keeping things in front of him. That said, he has have some off field issues, he was arrested in March of 2011 for hindering prosecution as police thought he was not telling the truth about a one car accident. He has also had injury issues, tore his right Pectoral muscle and missed the Capital One Bowl against Michigan State in January of 2011. Barren is currently recovering from hernia surgery. The Buccaneers need help on defense and Barron should be able to assist them, how quickly is the real question? This is a solid pick!

8 Miami Dolphins

Need: Quarterback

            Pick: Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M; (6’4’’, 222, 40 Time 4.65) News flash: A converted wide receiver, Ryan Tannehill, has become the Miami Dolphins first round selection at QB. He is the first QB taken by the Dalphins in the first round since Dan Marino was selected in 1983! Go figure, a former wide receiver, Ryan Tannehill and all Pro Quarterback, Danny Marino placed in the same category. This comparison will not make Tannehill’s job any easier. To be clear, Tannehill showed up at College Station as a highly ranked duel-threat QB and was asked to make the switch to wide-out. He showed great maturity in doing what the coaches thought would be best for the team. He is described as having an NFL arm, able to make every throw expected of QB’s in the league. He has size, arm strength, mobility, and intelligence to have a very successful NFL career. That said, he is really raw! His set up and release are described as inconsistent and his reading of the defense coverage is thought of as emerging, a term used to define kindergarten readers! Tannehill struggled with recognizing Big 12 double coverage schemes and blitzes packages, what he will face now is a far greater challenge. He will need time to develop, learn from mistakes and then, given what is said about his character, may become a good to very good NFL QB! This is a work in-progress pick!

9 Carolina Panthers

Need: Defensive Tackle

            Pick: Luke Kuechly; ILB Boston College; (6’2’’, 237, 40 Time 4.80) This guy likes to hit! Kuechly is one of the most productive tacklers in college football history. Ole Luke was involved in over 500 tackles (2009 158, 2010 183, & 2011 191) in the past three years. He has demonstrated great instincts and anticipation in finding the ball as he always seems to be in position to make the play. He reads well and as a result, he  gets to his drop points in pass coverage even though he does not possess elite speed. The fact that Kuechly rarely missed a tackle, coupled with his lack of down hill speed, led BC to wisely used him more as a scraper along the LOS then as blitzer. It simply did not make sense to waste his skill set blitzing when he does not possess the speed required to get to the QB! This strategy made perfect sense, as it allowed Kuechly to clean things up and explains why he made few tackles behind the line-of-scrimmage. Kuechly is an extremely hard worker in weight room and has a good off the field record. This pick can best be described as a player who makes plays but is not thought of as a play-maker. A good pick for the Panthers.

10 Buffalo Bills

Need: Defensive End / Outside Linebacker

            Pick: Stephon Gilmore; CB South Carolina; (6’1’’, 193, 40 Time 4.52) Many scouts thought that Gilmore, while not as talented as a Morris Claiborne, did possess as much or more skill at the cornerback position. A smart player who would live in the film room if his coaches would have let him. He has an aggressive attitude on the field and a great work ethic in the weight room. Gilmore played mostly press-bail or off coverage at South Carolina. That said, he can preform in a  press scheme because of his aggressive style of play. To continue his success with press coverage on the next level, he will need to will need to get stronger to deal with the power and burst NFL receivers. Gilmore has excellent ball skills, he is good in the run support game, and is experienced, as he started 40 games for South Carolina. Gilmore is not blessed with elite speed but his other strengths should allow him to be an excellent player for Bills. A very good pick!

 

Posted in ACC, Alabama, Big 12, Boston College, LSU, SEC, South Carolina |

Top Five NFL Draft Picks

1. Indianapolis Colts:

Need: Quarterback…

           Pick: Andrew Luck; QB Stanford (Height 6’4’’, Weight 235, 40 time 4.73). Stanford led the FBS in Red Zone Efficiency in 2011 (64 penetrations / 63 scores, meaning Stanford scored 98% of the time when entering the Red Zone). Of those scores, 50 of 63 were TD’s (24 rushing 26 passing) these numbers are reflective of Luck’s superior play. It should be noted, that he took the vast majority of snaps from under center and has clearly mastered the two intangibles: Accuracy and Reading Defenses, necessary for successful QB play in the NFL. Luck has also demonstrated a fearless pocket presence as he keeps his eyes down field despite pressure (he once hit a receiver, in stride, 50 yards down the field while he was being dragged to the ground by several defensive linemen).  Some analysts say Luck is the best QB to enter the draft since 1998, the year Payton Manning was selected. Others say, not so fast my friend, you can & should go all the way back to 1983, again with a touch of irony, to another Stanford QB, John Elway. No matter how you spin this all indicators say it is a great selection!

2. Washington Redskins:

Need: Quarterback

Pick: Robert Griffin III; QB Baylor (6’2’’, 220, 40 time 4.52) Led Baylor to a 10-3 season that featured wins over Texas 48-20 & Oklahoma 45-38. A rare, OK;…. a really rare feat for Baylor! RGIII is an impressive all round athlete, (great feet, great arm, & highly intelligent, graduated from Baylor in December of 2010 in Political Science and is currently working on his masters degree) excellent leader, and extremely confident individual! These characteristics are needed and will clearly will serve him well on the next level. That said, some concerns! He throws the ball better on the run then from the pocket, this indicates he prefers to leave the pocket early and get to his “on the move”comfort level. Given the speed of NFL defenders, this can and will result in injury. His size is only adequate (Griffin is not Cam Newton physically) and given his preferred style of play, durability could be an issue. RGIII needs to understand the nature of NFL defenses and integrate this knowledge into his style of play. From day one, he needs to demonstrate that he understands  he is no longer in the Big 12 and adjust his skill set to what NFL defenses bring to the table. Griffin took most of the snaps in the gun and worked with a simple playbook at Baylor. In Washington, he will be under center most of the time and have a much more complex system to lead. Finally, he will need to improve his ability to read defenses and demonstrate a willingness to stay in the pocket as he goes through his progressions. A very good pick… yet, given the work that needs to be done, somewhat of a gamble, with the second over all pick in the draft!

3 Cleveland Browns (From the Minnesota Vikings)

Need: Quarterback

            Pick: Trent Richardson; RB Alabama (5”11’’, 224, 40 time 4.52) Trent played behind Mark Ingram for two seasons at Alabama, yet one would be misspeaking if he were  to say he was overshadowed by Ingram. In fact, many analysts thought that Richardson was flat out better than Ingram. Long time SEC observers say he possess speed, power, & size the like which has not been seen in the conference, since the days of Bo Jackson and Herschel Walker. This guy is the total package! He has demonstrated the ability to run inside or outside with power and/or acceleration. He can run over you or away from you, pick one! Richardson is also a terrific receiver! He has soft hands coupled with good hand eye coordination and has been asked to run a variety of routes (wheel, screens, swing, etc..) at Alabama. He is a fierce blocker, but will need to learn the intricacies of NFL blitzes. At Bama, he would attack the first thing he saw penetrating, this guy is willing, but will need to experience a learning curve to effectively protect his QB. Richardson’s off season training has been exemplary and his work in the weight room has been described as legendary. This guy, like Andrew Luck, is as close as one gets to a lock, prior to actually seeing the door closed & secured!

4 Minnesota Vikings (From the Cleveland Browns)

Need: Left Tackle

Pick: Matt Kalil; Left Tackle USC (6”6’’, 295, 40 time 5.05) Big brother Ryan plays for the Carolina Panthers & Dad (Frank) also played in the NFL. Kalil has great balance, good feet, mental toughness, excellent technique, and a frame that can get much larger. He shows good patience as a pass blocker as he waits for defenders to commit and then finishes them off with his excellent length and upper body strength. He is also an excellent run blocker as he keeps good pad level and has the leg drive necessary to move defenders from the point of attack. Kalil has limited experience in pulling as USC did not require him to do much pulling. He does have experience with the trapping game and has the potential to excel in both of these areas given his athleticism! Kalil also played on SC’s special teams and blocked 4 FG attempts in 2011. He will have to improve his lower body strength to deal with bull rushers and his footwork will need to be fine-tuned to deal with NFL speed off the edge. That said, Kalil is a smart pick for the Vikings, as with minimal work, he should be an highly effective to an All-Pro left tackle for the next 10 years.

5 Jacksonville Jaguars (From the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

            Need: Wide Receiver

            Pick: Justin Blackmon; WR Oklahoma State (6’1’’, 211, 40 time 4.54) Blackmon is a Physical receiver, who consistently overwhelmed and defeated press coverage by escaping via sideline release or on slants / crosses into the middle of the field. He has strong hands and has demonstrated the ability to catch the ball in a crowd. He runs well after the catch and can break tackles and/or make defenders miss in the open field. Blackmon has the required upper body strength to be an excellent down field blocker and on occasion, has demonstrated that ability. That said, he needs to play every down! He has lost focus in games, evidenced by dropped passes or missed blocks, that given his talent level, he should have easily executed. Blackmon has some character & injury issues. He was arrested for misdemeanor DWI and has had to deal with a high ankle sprain, both occurred during the 2010 season.  Finally, while blessed with very good speed, it is unlikely that he possess the foot over foot, straight head speed to run away from NFL secondary’s. His succeeding at a high level will be subject to his work ethic and his consistent focus both in practice and on game day. While this is true for any athlete, if Blackmon is to arrive where at the level of Jacksonville using the 5th pick of the NFL Draft, he needs to step-up! I think he will and I like the pick!

Posted in Alabama, Baylor, Big 12, Mike's Blogs, Oklahoma State, PAC 12, SEC, Stanford, USC |

SEC Schedule for 2012

The vaunted SEC, winner of 6 straight BCS National Championships has released its schedule for 2012. In presenting the schedule and trying to demonstrate a relative perspective of its challenges, we have divided opponents into three categories:

1) BCS opponents (5 conferences, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, & PAC 12 & one Independent, Notre Dame… the SEC is the 6th BCS conference),

2) FBS teams (5 Conferences, MAC, WAC, Mountain West, C-USA, & Sun Belt and 3 Independents; Army, BYU & Navy).

Technically, the BCS conferences are part of the NCAA’s FBS classification. The BCS is an independent construct put together by the six fore-mentioned conferences & ND! However, for our purposes of identifying challenges in a team’s non-conference schedule this division allows for an easy understanding of the schedule’s relative strenght.

3)  FCS units which are made up of 13 conferences and a few independents. The important distinction between the FBS & the FCS is that the FCS affiliates cannot give more than 63 scholarships but can give fewer. The FBS teams must give 85… unless the NCAA tells them not to… typically that means they are in trouble!

Let’s take a look see at who  the SEC is taking on this year….

SEC West

Alabama: Plays 12 Games, 8 conference (Please refer to site for more conference detail) and 4 non conference, 1 BCS Opponent from the Big Ten (Michigan); 2 FBS opponents, both from SBC (Sun Belt Conference’s Western Kentucky & Florida Atlantic); and 1 FCS opponent from the Southern Conference (Western Carolina)

Arkansas: Plays12 Games, 8 conference and 4 non-conference, 1 BCS opponent from the Big East (Rutgers); 2 FBS Opponents,  one from the SBC (Louisiana Monroe) & one from C-USA (Tulsa); and 1 FCS (63 scholarship program) from the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC’s Jacksonville State)

Auburn: Plays 12 Games, 8 Conference & 4 non-0conference, 1 BCS opponent from the ACC (Clemson); 2 FBS Opponents, one from the SBC (Louisiana Monroe) & one from the WAC (New Mexico State); and 1 FCS opponent from the SWAC (Southwestern Athletic Conference’s Alabama A&M)

LSU: Plays 12 Games, 8 conference and 4 non-conference, 1 BCS opponent from the PAC 12 (Washington) 2 FBS opponents one from the WAC (Western Athletic Conference’s Idaho) & one from the SBC (North Texas) ; 1 FCS team from the CAA (Colonial Athletic Association’s Towson)

Mississippi State: Plays 12 Games, 8 conference and 4 non-conference, 0 BCS opponents; 3 FBS opponents from the SBC (South Alabama,  Middle Tennessee, & Troy) and 1 FCS opponent from the SWAC (Jackson State)

Ole Miss: Plays 12 Games, 8 conference and 4 non-conference; 1 BCS opponent from the Big 12 (Texas); 2 FCS opponents from C-USA (UTEP & Tulane) and 1 FCS opponent from the Southland Conference (Central Arkansas)

Texas A& M: Plays 12 Games, 8 conference and 4 non-conference; 0 BCS opponents, 2 FBS squads from C-USA (SMU & La Tech); and 2 FCS teams, one from the MEAC (Mideastern Athletic Conference’s South Carolina State) & one from the Southland (Sam Houston)

The SEC West plays 5 BCS opponents, 15 FBS teams and 8 FCS squads to round out a very challenging SEC inter conference/divisional experience.

SEC East

Florida: Plays 12 Games, 8 conference and 4 non-conference; 1 BCS opponent from the ACC (Florida State), 2 FBS teams, one from the MAC (Bowling Green) & one from the SBC (Louisiana Lafayette) and 1 FCS opponent from the OVC (Jacksonville State)

Georgia: Plays 12 games, 8 conference and four non-conference, 1 BCS opponents from the ACC (Georgia Tech); 2 FBS squads, one from the MAC (Buffalo) & one from the SBC (Florida Atlantic); and 1 FCS team from the Southern (Georgia Southern)

Kentucky: Plays 12 games, 8conference Games and four non-conference;1 BCS opponent from the Big East (Louisville); 2 FBS teams one from the SBC (Western Kentucky) & one from the MAC (Kent State); and 1 FCS team from the Southern (Samford)

Missouri: Plays 12 Games; 8 conference & 4 non-conference; 2 BCS opponents, one from the Big East (Syracuse) & one from the PAC 12 (Arizona State); 1 FBS team from C-USA (Central Florida), and 1 FCS team from the Southern (Southeastern Louisiana)

South Carolina: Plays 12 Games; 8 conference & 4 non-conference; 1 BCS opponent from the ACC (Clemson) ; 2 FBS opponents from C-USA ( UAB & East Carolina); and 1 FCS opponent from the Southern (Wofford)

Tennessee: Plays 12 Games, 8 conference & 4 non-conference; 1 BCS opponent from the ACC (North Carolina State); 2 FBS teams, one from the MAC (Akron) & one from the SBC (Troy); and 1 FCS team from the CAA (Georgia State)

Vanderbilt: Plays 12 games; 8 conference & 4 non-conference; 2 BCS opponents, one from the Big Ten (Northwestern) & one from the ACC (Wake Forest); 1 FBS from the MAC (Massachusetts); and 1 FCS unit from the Big South (Presbyterian)

The SEC East plays 9 BCS opponents, 12 FBS teams and 7 FCS squads to round out a very challenging SEC inter conference/divisional experience.

Clearly, the SEC East is playing the more challenging schedule this coming season, 9 BCS non-conference opponents to 5 for the West. The East takes on the ACC 5 times, the Big East 2, the Big Ten 1, & the PAC 12 1; while the West meets the Big East 1, the ACC 1, the Big Ten 1, the Big 12 1 & PAC 12 1.

Fans should have no problem with the SEC’s West scheduling 5 BCS opponents given the murderer’s row these teams have to walk through, dodge around, run over, & duck under during the regular season in the West. Nor should they fret about the SEC East’s schedule which is identical to the Big Ten’s Legends, who also scheduled 9 BCS opponents. A simple statement of fact is the SEC West is stronger that the SEC East right now (a few years ago… say 3…. the East was better that the West) So even though the schedule was built a few years ago (except for A&M and Missouri) … the scheduling is reflective of the relative strengths of the respective Divisions!

One final fact, Clemson is stepping up and taking on two of the SEC’s “Bad Boys”, Auburn and in-state rival, South Carolina. The Tigers are the only BCS team in the country playing 2 non-conference  games against SEC teams.  I am not sure if we should give them credit or send them flowers.

All of these games and more on now up for your viewing on the site. Enjoy the data!

Posted in AAC, ACC, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Big 12, Big Ten, C-USA, Clemson, Colonial Athletic Association, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, MAC, MEAC, Mississippi State, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Navy, Notre Dame, Ohio Valley, Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina, Southern Conference, Southland Conference, Sun Belt, SWAC |

Big Ten Schedule for 2012

As the Big Ten enters its second year of divisional play here is a breakdown of the schedule. We will evaluate the relative strength of the schedules by placing opponents into three constructed levels; 1) Bowl Championship Series (BCS) teams from the following conferences  (ACC, Big 12, Big East, PAC 12, SEC & Notre Dame along with the Big Ten) make up the BCS. 2) The Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) for our purposes consist of the following conferences; Conference of the United States of America (C-USA), Mid American Conference (MAC), Western Athletic Conference (WAC), Sun Belt Conference (SBC) , & Mountain West Conference (MWC).

Please note, the NCAA would not use this identification system to define conference affiliation, to them, all 11 of these conferences make up the FBS (the BCS is an independent construct agreed to by the fore-mentioned 6 conferences and Notre Dame). FBS conferences all award and by rule must provide 85 scholarships to maintain their FBS status.

3) Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) these teams can award up to 63 scholarships but are not required to do so by rule. In other words, they can not give more that 63 but can provide fewer and still maintain their FCS status. The FCS consist of 13 conferences (Great West disbanded after last season) & a few independent teams. A BCS or FBS team can count one win against a FCS opponent toward the 6 wins required to become bowl eligible. If they schedule 2 FCS teams, only one counts toward the needed 6 wins, as a result, it is rare for an 85 scholarship program to play two 63 scholarship opponents in one season.

Leaders Division:

1) Illinois plays 12 games; 8 conference games, 1 game against a BCS Conference opponent PAC 12 (Arizona State),  2 FBS opponents, a MAC team (Western Michigan), & WAC team (Louisiana Tech), and one FCS Team from the Big South (Charleston Southern)

2) Indiana plays 12 games; 8 conference games, no one from a BCS Conference, 3 FBS opponents, 2 from the MAC (Ball State & Massachusetts) & 1 independent (Navy),and 1 FCS opponent from the Missouri Valley Conference (Indiana State)

3 Purdue  plays 12 games; 8 conference games, 1 BCS Conference opponent (Notre Dame), 2 FBS opponents, one from the MAC (Eastern Michigan) & one from C-USA (Marshall) and 1 FCS opponent from the Ohio Valley Conference (Eastern Kentucky)

4) Wisconsin plays 12 games;  8 conference games, 1 BCS Conference opponent from the PAC 12 (Oregon State), 2 FBS opponents, one from the WAC (Utah State) & one from C-USA (UTEP), and 1 FCS squad from the Missouri Valley Conference (Northern Iowa)

5) Penn State plays 12 games; 8 conference games, 2 BCS Conference opponents, one from the Big East (Temple) & one from the ACC (Virginia) and 2 FBS opponents, one from the MAC (Ohio) & one independent (Navy)

6) Ohio State plays 12 games; 8 conference games, 1 BCS Conference opponent from the PAC 12 (California) and 3 FBS opponents 1 from the MAC (Miami of Ohio) and 2 from C-USA (Central Florida & UAB)

In 2012 the Leaders Division will play 72 games, 48 are conference contests, 6 outings are with BCS opponents (PAC 12 3, ACC 1, B-East 1, & ND 1); 14 games are against FBS teams (MAC 6, C-USA 4, WAC 2, Independent 2) and 4 FCS squads (Big South 1, MVC 2, & OVC 1)

Legends Division:

1) Iowa plays 12 games 8 conference, 1 game against a BCS Conference affiliate from the Big 12 (Iowa State), 2 FBS opponents from the MAC (Northern Illinois & Central Michigan) and 1 game vs FCS against the MVC (Northern Iowa)

2) Minnesota plays 12 games; 8 conference, 1 BCS Conference foe from the Big East (Syracuse), 2 FBS opponents, one from the MWC (UNLV) & one from the MAC (Western Michigan) and 1 FCS team from the CAA ( New Hampshire)

3) Michigan plays 12 games; 8 conferences, 2 BCS affiliates one from the SEC (Alabama) & an Independent (Notre Dame) and 2 FBS opponents, one from the MAC (Massachusetts) & one from the MWC (Air Force).

4) Michigan State plays 12 games; 8 conference, 1 BCS opponent, an Independent (Notre Dame) and 3 FBS teams, 2 from the MAC (Eastern Michigan & Central Michigan) & one from the MWC (Boise State)

5) Nebraska plays 12 games, 8 conference contests, 1 BCS Conference team from the PAC 12 (UCLA), 2 FBS Opponents, one from C-USA ( Southern Miss) & one from the SBC (Arkansas State) and 1 FCS team from the Big Sky ( Idaho State)

6) Northwestern plays 12 games, 8 conference, 3 BCS Conference affiliates, 1 from the ACC (Boston College), 1 from the Big East (Syracuse) & 1 from the SEC (Vanderbilt) and 1 FCS opponent from the MVC (South Dakota)

In 2012 the Legends Division will play 72 games, 48 are conference contests, 9 of the contests are against BCS opponents (SEC 2, ND 2,  B-East 2, ACC 1, PAC 12 1, & Big 12 1 ); 11 games are against FBS teams (MAC 6, MWC 3, C-USA 1,  SBC 1) and 4 FCS squads (Big South 1, MVC 2, & OVC 1)

On the surface, it appears the Legends have taken on the more challenging  schedule. They play 9 games vs BCS opponents to the Leaders 6 outings.

Michigan’s taking on Alabama is with out question the toughest game either division has scheduled.

The conference the Big Ten plays the most is the MAC (12 games) 6 games will be played by each division.

The Big Ten vs BCS Conferences breakdown is as follows: PAC 12 4 games, ND 3 contests, Big East 3 outings, ACC 2 games, SEC 2 meetings, and Big 12 1 game.

Finally the team with the toughest schedule in the Big Ten for 2012 is Michigan! Those dopes scheduled non conference games against Alabama, Notre Dame, and Air Force fully cognizant of the fact that divisional foes; Nebraska, Michigan State & Iowa are sharping their samurai swords in full anticipation of Wolverine Week! And oh yeah, don’t forget about Ohio State and Urban Meyer awaiting the wolves at the Horseshoe.

The establishing of divisions in the Big Ten has intensified the competition and energized the fan base. These divisional races should be fun to follow,  look for Ohio State to win the Leaders ( but remember, they are on probation and can’t go anywhere) so Wisconsin represents the the Leaders Division in Indy.

If Michigan survives its early non conference games without injury, this race should come down to two games for the wolves; @ Nebraska and then the home game with MSU.

I believe Michigan will find a way to Indy and then the poundings that they have given out and received during this most challenging season will be brought to the surface by the Wisconsin O-Line & their vaunted run game. The Badgers win their second straight Big Ten Title, even though they will be the second best team in the conference

OSU will field the best team the Big Ten has to offer in 2012. Just the way I see it!

Posted in Air Force, Alabama, Arizona State, Big Ten, Boise State, C-USA, California, Colonial Athletic Association, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana Tech, MAC, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Navy, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, Ohio Valley, PAC 12, Penn State, Purdue, SEC, Sun Belt, SWAC, UCLA, Western Michigan |

Who Steps up in 2012

College Basketball ended last Monday night with yet another SEC team walking away with a national championship. Kentucky struggled, at least at times, with a very good Kansas team, yet prevailed 67-59.  In the end, to much defense, to much talent and surprisingly, to much maturity from a very young Wildcat team sealed the Jayhawks fate.

The SEC is on fire, they have dominated college baseball ( won the last three College World Series’) this past year, South Carolina beat SEC East divisional rival, Florida, in the championship game.

In college football, they have literally annihilated the field, winning six national championships in a row. This past year, adding insult to injury, two teams from the SEC’s West Division (Alabama & LSU)  played for the BCS National Championship ending any lingering doubt about SEC’s dominance.

So who steps up? Will any BCS Conference or any conference for that matter, produce a team with the talent, the skill, and the mental toughness to challenge the SEC’s reign?

Two possible challengers for the coming year:

Florida State: QB E J Manual 6″5′ 245 is back and should provide the leadership as well as the athletic talent to lead this team. The running game is solid and the receivers are arguably the best in the ACC led by Rashad Greene. Last year in the Sport Champ Bowl, FSU started four Freshman against the Irish on the O Line, so look for better play from this unit as the talent gains experience. On defense, the Seminoles return their D line in tact! This unit is led by Brandon Jenkins, 6’3 267, who surprisingly did nor enter the NFL draft and has returned to school for his senior year. The LB play will be impacted by the loss of Nigel Bradham, their leading tackler for the past three seasons. However, Jeff Luc, Christian Jones, and Vince Williams have the talent, speed, and size to be a highly effect unit. In the secondary, both cornerbacks return, as Greg Reid and Xavier Rhodes did not enter the NFL draft. The cornerbacks are joined by All ACC (second team) free safety, Lamarcus Joyner. These players provide the needed talent, skill, and experience to be one of the most effective secondaries in the country.

Southern Cal: QB Matt Barkley, in my opinion, is the unchallenged best quarterback in the country! He returns to SC on a mission to lead the Trojans back from banishment to the BCS National Championship Game.  TB’s Curtis McNeal and D J Morgan have speed to burn and FB Samo Vainuku should fit nicely as the lead blocker in SC’s vaunted I formation. SC may have the best duo at WR in the nation, Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, not to mention George Farmer, who may have more talent than Lee or Woods. While the Trojans return 4 of 5 on the O Line, left tackle Matt Kalil is gone. Right Tackle Kevin Graf is most likely to fill the bill by moving over to the left side, this is a position that is critical to SC being successful. They must protect Barkley’s blind side. On Defense, the big question mark is the D Line, three of the four down linemen from the 2011 unit are gone. This is not an area where you want to have questions and SC must navigate these waters to challenge the SEC power teams. You simply can not just out score them. The LB’s are young, talented, experienced, and most importantly, back for the 2012 season. This group is terrific, Dion Bailey and Lamar Dawson are on the outside, while Hayes Pullard patrols the middle.  The secondary returns strong safety T J McDonald and cornerback Nickell Robey, both two year starters. While the other corner and free safety will lack experience, the talent level is high and this unit should perform well early and improve as the season progresses.

While every season has surprise teams, these are clearly two squads that have the talent, skill, and mental toughness to step up and challenge for a spot in the  national championship game.

 

Posted in ACC, Alabama, Florida, Florida State, LSU, PAC 12, SEC, South Carolina, USC |

National Championship Player Breakdown on D Lines

This game or so we are told is all about the defense, so let’s start with defensive personnel!

Defensive Lines

LSU:

The Tigers Play with 4 guys putting their hands in the dirt (43); Defensive Ends: Barkevious Mingo (6’5” 240) a lean, mean, pass rushing machine (8 sacks for 60 yards); Sam Montgomery (6’4” 245) the statistical leader on the D-line ( 9 sacks & 8 solo  tackles) Defensive Tackles: Bernie Logan (6’3” 285) A very talented red-shirt sophomore tackle, who some believe could be a first round pick in the NFL draft; Michael Brockers (6’6” 305), the most talented of a very talented front four, this guy could play in the NFL right now.

Alabama: 

The Tide rolls with 3 down linemen and 4 backers (34). Defensive ends: Jessie Williams (6’4” 320) a junior college transfer with size and quickness and Damion Square (6’3” 290) who has started every game this year and has become one of the leaders on defense. Nose Tackle: Josh Chapman (6’1” 310) If you are looking for star power on the defensive line, this is your guy. Many feel the way in which he controls the 0 1 seam is as effective as any nose tackle in the country. The other factor about Bama’s D-Line is depth. Their ability to keep guys fresh cannot be overstated.

LSU has more star power up front and they are big time play-makers, while Bama’s line seems to be more committed to doing their jobs within a defensive framework. This approach, playing their position first has allowed their linebackers to be the play makers. Watch for LSU’s line to be in the Tide’s backfield disrupting play, while Bama’s D-line ricochets and ears to disrupt LSU’s blocking patterns on LB ‘s and safeties.

Talent Advantage: LSU’s and Schematic Edge: Alabama. 


 

Posted in Alabama, LSU, SEC |

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs LSU

The 205th game of the century is upon us and the SEC wins again. This time the powers that be at BCS headquarters, said, ‘forget it’, to the other 10 conferences. The SEC has won 5 of the last 5, they noted, and clearly, have earned the right to have two SEC teams in the National Championship Game. Further, We are directed to take no notice of the fact that not only did Alabama not win its conference (oh yeah, they could not have, since both teams are housed in the SEC) they did not even win their division (oops, that’s right, they could not have done that either, since both teams are in the same division). This selection process has given new meaning to concept of national!

I would have been more amiable to LSU getting a second shot. They were the team that traveled to Tuscaloosa and found a way to win. The Tigers did this in front of 101,821 Bama fanatics, who suspect their self worth, if not their salvation, is dependent on a Rolling Tide. Had LSU lost 9-6 in OT, I would have been much more sympathetic to the Tigers’ case for a second taste. Alabama was at home, they set the table, ordered from the menu, and invited the vast majority of guests. Simple truth is, they got beat!

If LSU loses the game on Monday night, does it not suggest a third a game would be needed to resolve the tie, the so called rubber match (Coined in 1599 from a sport called English Bowling…. nothing like American bowling… so no Disco shirt with your name on it). To be fair, the third game should be played at Tiger Stadium and then the winner could be crowned National Champion.

In a playoff setting, no one could or should whine about who earns their way to the championship game. However, in the current BCS system, the rematch ticket was simply given to the Tide. This gift is going to cause an outbreak of schizophrenia in the AP (Associated Press). The Writers Poll or AP Poll voters are not locked into voting for the winner of the BCS National Championship Game. They are free to watch the game  and then vote their perspective.

I, for one, believe LSU’s schedule was tougher then Alabama’s. Oregon’s performance in the Rose Bowl, a 45-38 win over an excellent Wisconsin team or West Virginia destruction of the ACC’s Champ, Clemson, 70-33, in the Orange Bowl, (2 BCS Bowl winners beaten by LSU)  makes that point crystal clear. In case you forgot, both Oregon (40-27) and West Virginia (47-21) were beaten soundly by LSU. Conversely, Alabama best non-conference win was against Penn State, who lost to Houston, 30-14, in the TicketCity Bowl

Even with a loss on 1/9/12, LSU has as good a case for being crowned National Champ as Alabama; they beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa and played a better regular season schedule. This LSU / Bama rematch is problematic, at best and chaotic, in the event of a Bama win. Problematic and chaotic, two good words to describe what the BCS often brings to the house.

Posted in AAC, ACC, Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Oregon, SEC, Wisconsin |

FCS Champion Crowned

North Dakota State (Missouri Valley Conference) handed Sam Houston State (Southland Conference) it’s first loss of the season, 17-6,  in Frisco, Texas’ Pizza Hut Park. Sam Houston State (SHS) led the FCS in scoring offense this year, averaging 39.1 points per game. While North Dakota State (NDS) led the FCS in scoring defense, surrendering an average of, 13.2, points in each contest. In the end, something had to give and it did. SHS’ offense was unable to take advantage of some early turnovers their defense handed them and this pattern of offensive ineptitude lasted throughout the game.

NDS rushed for 115 yards and passed for another 120 for a total offensive output of 235 yards. Sam Houston passed for 115 and ran the ball for another 95 yards for a total of 210 offensive yards.  The teams each turned the ball over twice while Sam Houston was more effective on 3rd down conversion (4-18 to 1-13) and in total 1st down acquisition (12 to 9).  Time of possession also favored SHS (33:05 to 26:55), however, as Robert Neyland (Tennessee Football Coach) was quoted as saying in 1960, “Statistics are for losers” seems quite accurate given this data.

Posted in Missouri Valley, Sam Houston State, Southland Conference |

AQ Conference Bowl Results

As the college bowl season nears its end, let’s see which of the AQ leagues is winning and which is not…

ACC:  Boston College, not bowl eligible; Clemson, pounded by West Virginia, 70-33; Duke, not bowl eligible; Florida State, beat Notre Dame, 18-14; Georgia Tech, lost to Utah, 30-27; Maryland, not bowl eligible; Miami, bowl eligible, not selected ; NC State, beat Louisville, 31-24; North Carolina, lost to Missouri, 41-24; Virginia, lost to Auburn, 43-24; Virginia Tech, lost to Michigan in OT, 23-20; Wake Forest, lost to Mississippi State, 23-17 .    ACC: 2 Wins 6 Losses

Big 12:  Baylor, beat Washington, 67-56; Iowa State, lost to Rutgers, 27-13; Kansas, not bowl eligible; Kansas State lost to Arkansas on 29-16; Missouri, beat North Carolina, 41-24; Oklahoma, beat Iowa 31-14; Oklahoma State, beat Stanford in OT, 41-38; Texas, beat California, 21-10; Texas A&M, beat Northwestern, 33-22; Texas Tech, not bowl eligible.  Big 12: Wins 6 losses 2.

Big East:  Cincinnati, beat Vanderbilt, 31-24; Connecticut, not bowl eligible; Louisville, lost to NC State, 31-24; Pittsburgh, vs Southern Methodists on 1/7/12; Rutgers, beat Iowa State, 27-13; South Florida, not bowl eligible; Syracuse, not bowl eligible; West Virginia, beat Clemson, 70-33. Big East: Wins 3 Losses 1 (one game to play). 

Big Ten:  Illinois, beat UCLA, 20-14; Indiana, not bowl eligible; Iowa, lost to Oklahoma, 31-14,  Michigan, beat Virginia Tech in OT, 23-23, Michigan State, beat Georgia in 3 OT’s, 33-30; Minnesota, not bowl eligible; Nebraska, lost to South Carolina, 30-13; Northwestern, lost to Texas A&M, 33-22; Ohio State, lost to Florida, 24-17; Penn State, lost to Houston, 30-14; Purdue, beat Western Michigan, 37-32, Wisconsin, lost to Oregon, 45-38.   Big Ten: Wins 4 Losses 6.  

PAC 12:   Arizona, not bowl eligible, Arizona State, lost to Boise State, 56-24; California, lost to Texas, 21-10, Colorado, not bowl eligible; Oregon, beat Wisconsin, 45-38; Oregon State, not bowl eligible; Stanford, lost to Oklahoma State in OT, 41-38; UCLA, lost Illinois, 20-14; USC, NCAA probation, not bowl eligible; Utah; beat Georgia Tech, 30-27; Washington, lost to Baylor, 67-56; Washington State, not bowl eligible. PAC 12: Wins 2 Losses 5

SEC  Alabama vs LSU, 1/9/12; Arkansas beat Kansas State, 29-16; Auburn, beat Virginia, 43-24; Florida, beat Ohio State, 24-17; Georgia, lost to Michigan State in 3 OT’s, 33-30; Kentucky, not bowl eligible; LSU, vs Alabama, 1//9/11; Mississippi, not bowl eligible, Mississippi State, beat Wake Forest, 24-17;  South Carolina, beat Nebraska, 30-13; Tennessee, not bowl eligible; Vanderbilt, beat Wake Forest, 24-17. SEC: Wins 5 Losses 2 (one game to play… 2 SEC teams)

Independents:  Army, not bowl eligible, BYU, beat Tulsa, 24-21; Navy, Not bowl eligible, Notre Dame, lost to Florida State, 18-14. Independents: Wins 1 Losses 1.

Posted in AAC, ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Big 12, Big Ten, Boise State, Boston College, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Navy, NC State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, PAC 12, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, SEC, South Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, Virginia, Western Michigan, Wisconsin |