Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) vs Purdue Boilermakers (6-6)

This Bowl began in 1997 and is the only FBS (Division 1) Bowl played in the Midwestern United States. The game’s intent is to pit the MAC against the Big Ten (although the Big Ten has played in the game only twice… today’s being the third). The Sun Belt (or an at-large team) constitute the back up plan, if these conferences (Big Ten or MAC) are unable to provide a representative. The event was first known as the Ford Motor City Bowl (in 1997, Ford was the lone sponsor) and then, beginning in 1998, the name changed to the Motor City Bowl (Ford was joined by General Motors and Chrysler as sponsors) through 2008. Little Caesars Pizza became the title sponsor, in 2009, after General Motors and Chrysler filed bankruptcy. One would need to be a corporate lawyer to figure out this Bowl’s sponsorship financial entanglements. Suffice to say, all three motor companies are back, for the 2011 bowl, as they are now the presenters of the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl…. (cost them $100,000.00 to say…. here’s Little Caesar…… Detroit huh… I’ll bet they know a guy) . The only other bowl game played in Detroit’s history was the Cherry Bowl (1984 & 1985)

During the first five years the Bowl was played in the Pontiac Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan and then, in 2002, the game was moved to Ford Field in downtown Detroit, Michigan, where it will be played today!

The first game was played in 1997, it featured Mississippi against Marshall, a contest won by Ole Miss, 34-3 and last year’s winner was Florida International, 34-32, over Toledo. As mentioned, the game has had two Big Ten representatives, Northwestern lost to Bowling Green, 28-24, in 2003 and in 2007, Purdue was a 51-48 winner over Central Michigan. The good news for the Little Caesars Folks is/was that the Purdue / Central Michigan game produced the largest crowd in the bowl’s history, 60,624…. tails to seats! I’ll be interested in seeing the attendance numbers in this economy.

Ok… Let’s see what Sully’s College Football Page has to say about what team should/will win this affair based on statistical analysis?

Head to Head and Common Opponents

These teams have not met in the past 6 years.. so nothing to be learned from a face to face confrontation. However, both teams played Illinois & Michigan this year, the Broncos lost to Illinois, 23-20 and Michigan 34-10 (a game shortened by lighting) while the Boilermakers beat Illini, 21-14 and fell to Michigan 36-14. Advantage: Purdue

Total Offense & Defense

Western Michigan is averaging 456 YPG (Yards per Game) to Purdue’s 371, while on defense, Purdue allows 388 YPG as compared to the Broncos 432.  Advantage: Western Michigan

Passing Offense & Defense 

Western passes the ball for 329 YPG to the Boilers 179; defensively, WM permits 218 YPG while Purdue allowed an average 203 passing yards in each game. Advantage: Western Michigan

Rushing Offense & Defense

Purdue is running the ball for 175 YPG to Western’s 127, on ‘D’, the Boilers are holding opponents to 185 rushing yards, while the Broncos are surrendering 218 YPG. Advantage: Purdue

Scoring Offense & Defense

Western is scoring at a clip of 36 PPG (Points Per Game) while Purdue is ringing up 26 points in each contest, on defense, the Boilermakers are giving up 26 (identical to what they score) and Western Michigan’s opponents are lighting up the score board to the tune of 28 PPG. Advantage: Western Michigan

Turnovers Gained, Lost & Margin

Western has giving up the ball 28 times on offense for a game average of 2.33, while taking if away 27 times, a defensive average of 2.25 TPG. A Margin of negative 1 for the season or a negative 0.08 per game. Purdue has surrendered possession of the ‘rock’ 18 times for an average of 1.5 turnovers per game, while taking in back on 13 occasions, for a game average of 1.08 takeaways. This leaves the Boilers with a negative 5 for the season or a minus 0.42 per contest. Advantage: Western Michigan

3rd Down Conversions and Stops

Purdue successfully converts on 3rd down 41.6% of the time (75/180) while the Broncos are successful on 42.7% of their attempts (67/157). On defense, Western stops it’s opponents 40.1% of the time (65/162) to Purdue forcing a change of position 40.9% on third down (70/171). Advantage: Western Michigan 

Red Zone Offense & Defense

Purdue scores 85% of the time when they enter your Red Zone (40 scores to 47 penetrations) of which 64% are touchdowns (30 of 47). Meanwhile, the Broncos are successful upon entering the Red Zone 91% of the time (50/55) and score TD’s on 73% of these incursions. On defense, the Boilers allowed their opponents into the Red Zone on 42 occasions, 37 have resulted in scores (88%), of which, 27 have been touchdowns (64%… you got it… the exact percent Purdue scores TD’s). Western Michigan has tolerated 44 entries into their Red Zone, of which 31 have have resulted in scores (70%) with 24 being touchdowns (55%).  Advantage: Western Michigan

A few of other mitigating factors… I watched the Western Michigan / Illinois game… no doubt but that the Broncos out played the Illini and this was when the Fighting Illini were still fighting. They (Illini) had beaten Arizona State 17-14 the week before and beat Northwestern, the week after, 38-35; so Illinois won three games in a row by three points (Beat WM 23-20). Secondly, the Big ten played the MAC 11 times this season and won 10 (Indiana lost to Ball State 27-20) … no question… the Big ten is the superior league and as a result, Purdue has played against better competition (Purdue did not play a MAC team this year, but is 7-2 against the MAC since 2006). Finally, most Big Ten teams (9 that I can think of) would be pouting about being in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, I do not believe that is true for Purdue, Minnesota, and Indiana. I think all three of these teams would love to be or are happy about being in Detroit. After last year’s disaster in bowl games, the Big Ten and Purdue (who has not been bowling since 2007…you got it … at the Motor City Bowl), want to get this year’s bowl season off to a great start….. they will…. Purdue 31 Western Michigan 28 

 

Posted in Arizona State, Big Ten, Illinois, Indiana, MAC, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ole Miss, Penn State, Western Michigan |

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Missouri (7-5) vs North Carolina (7-5)

The Independence Bowl began in 1976 (I am thinking Spirit of 76 was part of the planning) in Shreveport, Louisiana. The Champion of the Southland Conference (check site for Southland Conference membership and other details) would take on an independent that the committee would identify and invite. This setup lasted for 5 years, then in 1981, the format changed, the bowl committee would now invite two independents to participate in the game. In 1995 it changed again, the mighty SEC was given one spot and the other was awarded to an independent.  Beginning in 1998 and running through 2009, the Independence folks tried to pit the SEC entry against a Big 12 opponent, if those conferences had an available represented… if not.. the Bowl would look for and identify a team from another conference. Since 2010, the Independence Bowl conference tie-ins have been with the Mountain West (3rd place team) and the ACC (7th place team).

The Sponsors have varied over the years.  In 1990, its first economic partner was Poulan Weedeater (1990-96) and the bowl became known as the Poulan Weed-Eater Independence Bowl (gave rise to the to unceremonious descriptor “Weedwhacker Bowl”… to express disappointment for landing in an inferior bowl game… the phrase was then applied universally to any and all bowls when the  fan base was unhappy with the significance of the bowl). In 1998 through 2000 the bowl was sponsored by Sanford (writing products) followed by MainStay Investments, who took over in 2001 and held sponsorship until 2003. PetroSun took over these duties in 2006 and 2007 and Advocare from 2009 to present. The Independence Bowl has had many years where the game did not have a sponsor.

The first Independence Bowl was played December 13, 1976 and won by McNeese State  20-16, over Tulsa and last year’s game pitted Air Force against Georgia Tech, a contest won by the Falcons, 14-7.

This year’s game pairs two teams that have had outside the lines issues to deal with in addition to concentrating on game week preparation. Missouri, out of the Big 12, has had to deal with their on again… off again… and then… the move to the SEC. While North Carolina, an ACC team, had to deal with NCAA sanctions and then… lost their coach, Butch Davis, days before the season was set to begin. This is the first of many AQ conference match-ups and should put the skills levels of the Tigers directly in the sights of the Tar Heals’ athleticism.

Let’s take a peek and see what the season stats tell us?

Head to Head and Common Opponents

These teams have not played in the past 6 years, so the players will have nothing to draw on from an earlier experience, in fact, the Tar Heels have not lined up against a Big 12 opponent in that same time frame. The same is true for the Tigers, they have not laced them up against the ACC in the past six years… so nothing to be learned with this (or lack of) data. Advantage: Push

Total Offense & Defense

Missouri averages 473 YPG (Yards Per Game) to North Carolina’s 396, while on defense, the Heels are giving up 353 YPG to the Tigers, surrendering an average of 383 yards. Missouri is averaging 77 more yards of offense while North Carolina is slightly better on defense, allowing 30 fewer yards per game. Advantage: Missouri

Rushing Offense & Defense

Missouri rushed the ball for 237 YPG to North Carolina’s 147 yards per game, on defense North Carolina held its opponents to 106 YPG while the Tigers allowed an average of 136 yards running the ball. Missouri had a sizable advantage in running the ball, 90 YPG, while the Tar Heels were the superior team defending the run, a differential of 30 YPG. Advantage: Missouri 

Passing Offense & Defense

The Heels are passing the ball for an average of 249 YPG while Missouri counters with 237 (A very balanced offense, as they run for an average of 237 YPG as well) passing yards per game. Defending the pass, we find both teams giving up 247 YPG, to break the tie, Carolina has allowed 2961 Total Passing Yards this season to Missouri 2967.  Advantage: North Carolina

Scoring Offense & Defense

Missouri puts up 32 Points Per Game (PPG) to North Carolina’s average of 28 points in each contest. Once again, an anomaly, both teams are allowing 24 PPG and we cannot break tie with total points this time, in that, the Heels & Tigers have surrendered an identical 282 points this season!  Advantage: Missouri

Turnovers Gained & Lost

Missouri has forced 20 turnovers this season for an average of 1.67 Turnovers Per Game (TPG), while North Carolina has taken the ball away 23 times for an average of 1.92 take aways in each game. On Offense, the Tigers have given it up 18 times this season for an average of 1.5 TPG, while the Heels have lost the ball on 24 occasions for an average of 2 TPG. Thus…. Turnover Margin: Missouri is a positive .12, while North Carolina is a negative .08.       Advantage: Missouri   

3rd Down Conversions Offense & Defense

North Carolina is successful 38.9 percent of the time on 3rd down (56 conversions in 144 attempts) while Missouri has converted 37.3 (63 0f 169). Defensively, Missouri allows 3rd down conversions an even 40.0 percent (78 / 195)  to the Tar Heels 42.8% (77 / 180). So  North Carolina is more successful on 3rd down conversions (a plus 1.6) than Missouri. The Tigers are better at stopping opponents on 3rd down (a plus 2.8) than the Heels defense. The 3rd down conversion margin for UNC defense is 42.8% (times they stop their opponent) minus 38.9% (conversions that are successful by Heels offense) equals a negative margin of 3.9% (times defense failed to stop an opponent are greater than times the offense was successful). While Missouri’s numbers are 40.0% (times they stop their opponent) less 37.3 (conversions successful by Tigers) this equals a negative margin of 2.7 (times defense failed to stop an opponent are greater than times the offense was successful). Based on the 3rd down Conversions, Stops &  Margin…. Advantage: Missouri 

Red Zone offense & Defense

Missouri has been in the Red Zone 51 times this season and scored on 45 of those visits, with 33 of those scores being TD’s. The Tigers score 88% of the time when they penetrate your Red Zone (20 yard line to the goal line) of which 65% are touchdowns. North Carolina has broken into the Red Zone 46 times this year and scored on 37 of those entries, of which, 33 have been touchdowns. The Heels score points 80% of the time when you find them in the Red Zone and 72% of those break-ins resulted in a TD. So while Missouri has more experiences in the Red Zones (51 to 46) and is more likely to score (88 to 80%); North Carolina has done the better job of scoring TD’s when entering the Zone (72 to 65%). Interestingly, both teams have scored 33 TD’s from Red Zone penetrations!

On Defense, North Carolina has allowed its opponents into the RZ 40 times this season resulting in 30 scores, 18 of those scores have been TD’s. UNC’s percentage results are 75% of the time their opposition gets into the Zone, they score, of which, 45% of those visits result in touchdowns. Meanwhile, Missouri’s Red Zone has been invaded 44 times this year with 33 of those invasions resulting in scores, 24 of the 33 scores have been TD’s. The Tigers percentages are as follows, 75% of Red Zone incursions result in a score for their opponent, of which 55% are TD’s.  Advantage: North Carolina 

Las Vegas odds makers’ had Missouri as a 3 1/2 point favorite (when it opened the line), the waging public agreed, and the point spread has risen to 5 1/2 to 6 based on dollar flow. Vegas had it right when it opened with Missouri being a 3.5 point favorite…. 5.5 to 6.0 is about them making $’s.

The statistical analysis done here suggests Missouri wins a close game!

Missouri 28 North Carolina 24

 

Posted in ACC, North Carolina |

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada (7-5) vs Southern Mississippi (11-2)

The Hawaii Bowl ( the current version… which has no connection to other Bowls played on the Islands, such as the Poi Bowl 1936-1939, the Pineapple Bowl 1940-41 & 1947-1952, the Aloha Bowl 1982-2000, & Oahu Bowl 1998-2000) was first played in 2002 and has continued through the present day. It has had two sponsors, ConAgra Foods (2002) and the Sheraton Hotels and Resorts Hawaii (2003 to present). The game is played in Honolulu’s Aloha Stadium (Capacity: 50,000) with a payout of $750,000.00 per team.

The inaugural game in 2002 was won by Tulane, 36-28, over Hawaii and in last year’s contest, Tulsa outscored Hawaii, 62-35. The conference tie-ins have involved WAC, C-USA, MWC & the PAC-12 (PAC 12 now.. then PAC 10) from the 2002 through present year.

Southern Miss comes into this game with a little bit of an attitude. They, as noted, are 11-2 and did beat an undefeated Houston, 49-28, who (Houston) was headed for a BCS Bowl until suffering that loss. So the Golden Eagles are acting and talking about “we should be in a better bowl” (BCS Bowl was / has been mentioned) and of course, the subliminal  implication, “we deserve a stronger opponent” … (I’m sure Nevada has inferred that perspective) The Golden Eagles are sounding a lot like TCU before their rumble with La Tech, a game that TCU was heavily favored in and yet… because of their attitude…barely survived!  The difference is/was that TCU had this Bowl slight done to them, while Southern Miss did it to themselves. A loss to Marshall, 26-20, on September 10th and then another loss to UAB, 34-31, on November 17th sealed their bowl fate. Only the Big East Champion would be capable of losing to Marshall and UAB and still be awarded a BCS Game… but that is another issue…an AQ (automatic qualifier) enigma. So the Eagles need to stop screeching from the nest, get airborne, and begin the hunt!

The Wolf Pack (two words… Wolf Pack… not like North Carolina State, who spell it as one… Wolfpack) from Nevada have a different perspective about this year’s Hawaii Bowl.  They see this game as an opportunity to make a statement nationally about their program in the post Colin Kaepernick Era. CK was Nevada’s all everything QB (Career: 10,000 passing yards & 4000 rushing yards… the only player in NCAA history with those numbers) and although Kaepernick graduated last year, his legacy continues to overshadow the program. Nevada’s offensive innovation, the Pistol (the QB in the gun with a running back 3 to 4 yards directly behind the QB) is being used across the country by numerous FBS teams. As a result, there is a growing suspicion that Coach Ault’s system and other player(s) contributions may have been overlooked because of Kaepernick’s accomplishments. Now is their chance to remove all doubt!

So one team seems to be feeling the game as a slight, while the other squad sees it as an opportunity. No question, I like opportunity over slight… however… let’s take a look at the statistics (please note: all this information and more is on the site for you to view and make your own deductions) and see what they tell us.

Southern Mississippi is ranked 13th in the nation in Total Offense at 471 YPG (Yards Per Game) while the Wolf Pack are tearing it up on offense, 522 YPG, and rate as the nation’s 5th best offense. On Defense, the Eagles give up 345 YPG (ranked @ 31) while Nevada surrenders 372 YPG (ranked 52 of 120).

Offensive Scoring finds Southern Miss putting up 38 points per game (PPG) 14th best in the land, while Nevada rings it up to the tune of 33 PPG (31st best in the nation). In the NCAA’s Defensive Scoring Category, Southern Miss allows 21 PPG (29th best) vs Nevada’s giving up 25 PPG (58/120).

One last consideration here is both teams ability (or lack their of) to take away or give away the ball. Southern Miss has turned the ball over 28 times this year for an average of 2.15 TPG (Turnovers Per Game); while Nevada has lost “the rock” on 23 occasions for an average 1.92 TPG.  On Defense, Nevada has generated 23 take aways for an exact push… 23 take aways and 23 give aways. While the Golden Eagles have snatched the ball from their opponents 26 times for an average of 2.0 TPG. This leaves Southern Miss with a negative Turnover Margin of -.15 … while Nevada is a flat line… zero… in Turnover Margin.

This year Nevada has taken on Oregon (lost 69-20) and Texas Tech (Lost 35-34) from AQ Conferences, and, of course, conference foes Boise State (lost 30-10) and Louisiana Tech (lost 24-20) … Tech just lost a close game to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl (31-24). So Nevada would have played teams that have as much or more talent than Southern Miss, however they did not win any of those games.

They do have a common opponent in Louisiana Tech, a 19 to 17 victory for Southern Miss and as mentioned, a Nevada loss, 24-20.

The Eagles played only one team from a BCS conference, the ACC’s Virginia, which resulted in a 30-24 win. Southern Mississippi’s only eye catching victory is their hammering of Houston (49-28) in the C-USA championship Game.

Based on the C-USA Championship victory and the myriad of statistical data presented here… Southern Miss 38 Nevada 28

Posted in ACC, C-USA, Nevada, SWAC, Virginia |

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Texas Christian, 10-2 (MWC) vs Louisiana Tech, 8-4 (WAC) in the 11th (well sort of) SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl. This bowl actually began in 1952 and was intended to match the best military school in the East against the best military school in the West. In 1952, Bolling Air Force Base defeated San Diego Naval Training Center, 35-14 in the inaugural game. The bowl continued through 1955, which pitted Fort Ord (Army) against Pensacola Naval Air Station (USN), this final game was won  by the army team, 35-15, after which the game was discontinued.

In 2005, the Bowl was revitalized and true to its military history, Navy took on and pounded Colorado State, 51-30. In 2006 Army was penciled in as the military representative but failed to have the needed number of victories.  As a result, the bowl invited NIU (Northern Illinois from the MAC) & TCU (Texas Christian from the MWC). The Bowl conference tie-ins are the Mountain West #2 vs a WAC representative for 2011 and 2012 and Army (if bowl eligible) in 2013.

The SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl’s best game was played in 2008 when 11th ranked TCU took on 9th ranked Boise State. TCU won the game 17-16 and the game had its largest television audience.  In fact, it remains the highest rated pre-Christmas bowl game ever on ESPN. Last year’s game was won by San Diego State, who torpedoed Navy, 35-14.  Ok… onto the game…

Texas Christian has won seven in a row including a win on the”Blue Field”, 36-35, over Boise State. They, simply put, should be and deserve to be in a better bowl and quite frankly, against a better opponent. I do not have to tell those of you who have played or coached how dangerous this type of thinking can be for a team’s preparation. If the players are hearing and buying into this stuff (which, by the way, I believe is right…. they do deserve to be in a better bowl… with an AQ opponent) then we have a paradox, the players are absolutely right while being dead wrong. I am thinking Gary Patterson has stood on his head on more than one occasion and talked about the need to focus on the task at hand. Coach might say “This is not the Rose Bowl, its not the Big Ten Champion, Wisconsin, and yes, we were behind only once this year when time expired (50-48 to Baylor… the other loss to SMU was an OT affair) but its all irrelevant…. we need to focus on the task at hand. Good luck with that Gary.

Louisiana Tech lost three of its first four games ( Southern Miss 19-17, Houston 35-34, and Mississippi State  26-20 in OT) and then got popped by Hawaii, 44-26. Oh yeah, the Bulldogs have not lost since, 7 wins in a row… just like TCU. La Tech is really close to being 11-1 and one would think that they absolutely believe that this is their chance to make a national statement.

Two teams with seeming different perspectives on this game… it won’t matter……. TCU 31 Louisiana Tech 13 

Posted in Louisiana Tech, Mountain West |

Beef O’Brady St. Petersburg Bowl

Florida International, 8-4 (Sun Belt) vs Marshall, 6-6 (C-USA) get ready to to “get it on” at Tropicana Field (Home of The Tampa Bay Rays professional baseball team). This venue is one of three baseball stadiums to host a bowl game; the other two are Yankee Stadium (no further explanation required) and AT&T Park, home of the San Francisco Giants.

The conference tie-ins are the Big East & Conference USA (the Sun Belt is the alternate). The Big East was unable to provide a representative this year and as a result, an invitation was was extended to and accepted by FIU. This bowl was first played in 2008 and was named after its cooperate sponsor magicJack, thus…. the magicJack St.Petersburg Bowl. This bowl lasted all of one year, in 2009, Beef O’Brady acquired the game’s naming rights and the official name of the event is now (for now) “St. Petersburg Bowl presented by Beef O’Brady.”

The inaugural game in 2008 was won by South Florida, who handled Memphis, 41-14 and last year’s winner, in a wild affair, saw Louisville outlasted Southern Mississippi, 31-28!  Alright…let’s take a peek at these teams and see where it leads us.

Head to Head and Common Opponents

These teams have not met in the past six years and, in fact, Marshall has not played anyone from the Sun Belt Conference during that same 6 year time period. The same was true for FIU, who had not squared off against a C-USA opponent… that is… until this year’s game vs Central Florida. FIU took on their in-state rival and more than surprised college football fans across the State of Florida, with a 17-10 victory. Marshall fell to UCF 16-6 on October 8, three weeks after FIU victory on September 17. Advantage: FIU

Total Offense & Defense

FIU averages 370 YPG, 219 yards passing and 150 rushing (for you math people… we round up .5… Thus 370) while Marshall counters with 335 YPG. passing for 212 yards Per Game and rushing for an average of 125 yards. Advantage: FIU

Offensive & Defensive Scoring

Marshall is averaging 22 PPG while giving up 30. Meanwhile, FIU is ringing up 26 PPG while holding its opponents to 19. FIU has scored 24 or more 8 times this year to Marshall’s accomplishing this point total but 4 times.  Marshall has held its opponents to 17 points or less 3 times this season while FIU has done so in seven games. Advantage: FIU 

Turnovers Gained & Lost

FIU has turned over its opponents a total of 19 times for an average of 1.58 Turnovers Per Game, while giving up the ball 14 times for an average of 1.17 TPG. This leaves FIU with a plus .41 Turnover Margin in each of their games.  Marshall has turned over their opposition 27 times and turned it back 27 times, resulting in a flat-line Turnover Margin of zero.      Advantage: FIU

Third Down Conversions Offense & Defense

Marshall has had 164 Third Down Conversion Attempts and made it 58 times for a 35.4 success rate. FIU has has attempted to make a 1st down, on 3rd down, 172 times and converted 65 for a success rate of 37.8. On Defense, FIU has allowed 68 conversions of 189 attempts for a success rate of 36%; while Marshall has struggled to get of the field on 3rd down…. 65 conversions /160 attempts…..  allowing its opponents to keep the drive alive a full 40.6 percent of the time. Advantage: FIU

Red Zone Offense & Defense

Marshall’s offense has penetrated the Red Zone 32 times and put points on the board 28 of those 32 possessions. There is an 88 percent chance that they will score it they enter your Red Zone and a 59% chance that the score will be a TD. FIU has been in its opponents Red Zone 45 times and scored on 39 of those drives…. thus scoring 87 percent of the time. Of those 39 scores, 19 have been for touchdowns which translates to a 47% likelihood that FIU’s score will be a TD. In defending their respective Red Zones, FIU has allowed 33 entries and 25 scores, while Marshall permitted 52 penetrations with 43 scores. Marshall has been scored on 83 percent of the time when their opponent has entered their Red Zone, with 62% of those scores being TD’s. While FIU’s opponents have scored 76 percent of the time with 52% being TD’s. Advantage: Push

One closing thought… Special Teams. Please remember this name…TY Hilton. I believe he and FIU’s ‘D’ will be the difference in this game. FIU 34 Marshall 14

 

Posted in C-USA, Marshall, Sun Belt |

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

This Bowl was formally known as the Humanitarian Bowl and is played in Boise, Idaho at Boise State’s, Bronco Stadium (33,000) each year. The Humanitarian Bowl began in 1997 and it name was changed just this past year to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, when the Idaho Potato Commission signed a 6 year naming rights contract. The Bowl has had an interesting history, in 1997 & 1998 the bowl was the Humanitarian Bowl and then from 1999 to 2002 it was called the Crucial.Com Humanitarian Bowl. For the 2003 season (game played in January 2004) the bowl did not have a sponsor and was referred to as the Humanitarian Bowl … yet again.

From 2004 to 2006 the Humanitarian name was dropped and the Bowl was referred to by its new sponsor’s name…. MPC Computers Bowl. Change came again, in 2007, the naming rights were purchased by a Boise based company, Roady’s Truck Stops and … you got it…. the bowl’s name was changed once again… to Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl. This alteration lasted through the 2009 bowl season when the winds of change struck again, the small mobile business, uDrove secured naming rights and in 2010 the bowl was presented as the… U Drove Humanitarian Bowl.

And now… 2011… we have the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl…. I am not hopeful for longevity with this Potato stuff! Remember the fast food franchise … One Potato Two… they went south… I think the Great Steak and Potato Company bought them out and did we not have a VP who could not spell potato. I am thinking we should rename the bowl…. The Great Steak Potato Company Danny Quayle Potatoe (don’t forget the E kid… Quayle got the blame… even though those dopey teachers spelled it wrong on the flash cards they gave to Danny boy) Humanitarian Bowl!! Ok… How about the game.

The current bowl conference tie-ins are the WAC (Western Athletic Conference) and the MAC (Mid-American Conference) with Utah State (7-5) representing the WAC and Ohio University (9-4) carrying the MAC’s banner. These teams have not met in the past five years however, they do have a common opponent to compare one to the other this year (and for those of you who say these types of comparison are worthless… your a dope… you do not just consider the score… if you look at a myriad of statistical data… U can learn a lot) Both Utah state & Ohio met New Mexico State this year. Ohio played the New Mexico State Aggies (not to be confused with the Utah State Aggies) at Aggie Stadium and put a whipping on them, 44-24, while Utah State also traveled to Las Cruces and survived, 24-21.

So while there was nothing to be learned from head to head games, we can gain some insight from the contests played in New Mexico. Ohio rushed for 241 yards and passed for another 211  for a total 452 yards vs the Aggie defense. This game was played on September 3, the season opener for both teams. Conversely, Utah State and New Mexico State met on the last weekend of the regular season, December 3rd. Utah State ran for 392 yards and passes for another 123 for a total offensive output of 515 yards. On Defense, Ohio gave up 6 yards of rushing offense to New Mexico State and surrendered 362 yards passing for a total of 368 yards. Later that same season, the Aggies from Utah allowed the Aggies from New Mexico to run the ball for 145 yards and pass for another 252 for a total of 397 yards.

So lets take this data and make some observations on what the season should have looked like based on #’s from these two games.

Ohio U should have been rated higher than State as a run defense… and… it is closer than this game would suggest … but accurate…  in that Ohio is the better run defense, 128 YPG (ranked 30 in FBS)  to the Aggies 130 YPG  ( ranked 32 FBS). In defending the pass, the results of these game suggest that the Aggies would be the better @ defending the pass throughout the season … and…not the case…. the Bobcats gave up 228 YPG vs the pass while the Aggies allowed 240 YPG. So the Ohio D has played at a slightly higher level statistically (against similar competition) when compared the Aggies.

Offensively, this game suggest that Utah State should have been the better rushing team… and…absolutely true… Utah State averaged 277 YPG while the Bobcats ran it for 205. The game also suggested that the Bobcats would be the better throwing team… and …… absolutely true as well….  Ohio produced 249 passing yards per contest to the Aggies 178 throwing yards per game. Ohio better be able to stop the run or….. get the lead early … and force the Aggies to abandon the run.

Two other points… 1) Turnovers both teams had 2 in the New Mexico State Game, this suggests that they would be relatively close for the season… and…  Ohio had 28 turnovers during the season while the Aggies turned it over 23 times… a plus 5 for Utah State .. not so close. In the New Mexico State game the Aggies won the turnover battle 3 to 2, while the Bobcats lost this statistical game changer 2 to 1. This suggests that the Aggies would have won the turnover margin differential throughout the season while Ohio would have lost this critical stat…. and …. True for Ohio… 2.15 drops to 2.0 recoveries per game for a negative .15. But not true for Utah State… they did not win this critical statistic as the New Mexico State game suggested they would, they lost the turnover margin 1.92 to 1.17 for a negative .75 TPG.

2) Coaching… No disrespect intended for or toward Gary Anderson (8-16)… but I think Frank Solich (106-59) gives Ohio U a bit of an edge.

I watched both of these teams give away games that they should have won… Utah State had Auburn beat and found a way to lose it 42-38 and Ohio had NIU handled to win the MAC championship and simply gave it back to the Huskies, 23-20.

This game should be close!

Utah State 31 Ohio 28 

 

Posted in MAC, Northern Illinois, Ohio, SWAC, Utah State |

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

The Gildan ( a clothing manufacturing company) New Mexico Bowl was established in 2006 and is always played before Christmas. The bowl conference tie-in is with the Mountain West (MWC) and the PAC 12, that is….  when these respective conferences have teams available to fill the spots. If the conferences do not have a team available, than a committee will select an at-large team.  Not surprising, yet interesting, is the fact that the Gildan New Mexico Bowl is the only sporting  event hosted in the state of New Mexico that is nationally televised. In the first New Mexico Bowl, New Mexico of the MWC took on the San Jose State Spartans of the WAC, the Lobos lost a hard fought game, 20-12, to the Spartans. Last year’s game saw BYU (MWC) pound a Conference USA representative, UTEP, 52-24.

This year, Wyoming (8-4), from the Mountain West Conference meets Temple (8-4) from the Mid-American Conference (MAC). These teams have not played one another in the past five years and as a matter of fact, have met only once in their respective football histories, in 1990, a 38-23 victory for the Cowboys. They did have a common opponent this season, Bowling Green, whom the Cowboys beat 28-27 and a team that the Owls lost to, 13-10. Both of these games were played on Bowling Green’s home field, Perry Stadium.

Alright… I am now going to work with information on the site, to give you a statistical perspective and based on that data, identify the winner.

Total Offense & Total Defense

Temple averages 380 YPG (yards per game) while the Cowboys move the ball to the tune of 400 YPG. On defense Wyoming allows opposing offenses 429 YPG while the Owls hold their opponents to 316 YPG.  Advantage: Temple

Rushing Offense & Defense

Temple rushes the ball for 257 YPG, while Wyoming carries the rock for 187 YPG. Defending the run, Temple shines at 123 YPG and Wyoming struggles @ 229 YPG. Advantage Temple

Passing Offense & Defense

Temple’s passing game producers a meager 123 YPG while the Cowboys put the ball in the air for a total of 214 YPG. In defending the pass, Wyoming gives up 200 YPG with Temple slightly more affect @ 193 YPG. Advantage Wyoming 

Scoring Offense & Defense

Temple puts up 30 PPG and the Cowboys counter with 27 PPG. Defensively, Wyoming equals its offensive output by permitting an identical 27 PPG meanwhile the Owls limits their opposition to an anemic 14 PPG. Advantage Temple

Turnovers Offensive & Defense

Temple give the ball up once a game and takes it away 1.5 times…. for a plus .5, ….. while Wyoming turns it over 1.25  times per game and takes it away 2.58…. for a positive 1.33 take away’s per game.  Advantage Wyoming

Third Down Conversions & Stops

Wyoming coverts 43.7 percent of its third down attempts while holding their opponents to a 40% success rate. Meanwhile, Temple is successful on 45.1 percent of its 3rd down tries and limits their opponents to 33.7 percent ratio. Advantage Temple

Red Zone Offense & Defense

Temple scores 84% of the time when it enters the red zone… of which 59% are TD’s, while Wyoming scores on 74 percent of its red zone penetrations with 64% of the scores being touchdowns. When defending the red zone, Wyoming allows scores 81% of the time and 70 percent of the scores are TD’s. Temple permits scores 76 percent of the time of which 65% are touchdowns. Advantage Temple

One last consideration… Temple lost to Penn State, 14-10 and bombed Maryland, 38-7, two impressive outings. Wyoming was hammered by Nebraska 38-14 (Nebraska beat PSU 17-14) and 2 of their 8 wins were against FCS opponents, Texas State 45-10 and a nail-biter against Weber State, 35-32. Bill Cosby will be proud!

Temple 35 Wyoming 17

Posted in MAC |

Bowl Schedule Announced

Here is a the 2011-12 Bowl Schedule and conference breakdown. Please note all times are Central Standard.

12/17/11

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Temple (MAC) vs Wyoming (MWC) 1:00 p.m. kick off

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio (MAC) vs Utah State (WAC) 4:30 p.m. Kick off

R+L Carriers New Orleans: San Diego State (MWC) vs UL Lafayette (SBC) 8:00 p.m.

12/20/11

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl: FIU (SBC) vs Marshall (C-USA) 7:00 p.m. Kick off

12/21/11

S. D. County Credit Union Poinsettia: TCU (MWC) vs Louisiana Tech (C-USA) 7:00 p.m.

12/22/11 

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State (PAC 12) vs Boise State (MWC) 7:00 p.m.

12/24/11

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Nevada (WAC) vs Southern Miss (C-USA) 7:00 p.m. Kick off

12/26/11

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Missouri (B-12) vs North Carolina (ACC) 4:00 p.m.

12/27/11

Little Caesars Bowl: Western Michigan (MAC) vs Purdue (B-10) 3:30 p.m. kick off

Belk Bowl: Louisville (B-East) vs NC State (ACC) 7:00 p.m. Kick off

12/28/11

Military Bowl / Northrup Grumman: Toledo (MAC) vs Air Force (MWC) 3:30 p.m.

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: California (PAC 12) vs Texas (B-12) 7:00 p.m.

12/29/11

Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State (ACC) vs Notre Dame (IND) 4:30 p.m.

Valero Alamo Bowl: Washington (PAC 12) vs Baylor (B-12) 8:00 p.m.

12/30/11

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU (IND) vs Tulsa (C-USA) 11:00 a.m.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (B-East) vs Iowa State (B-12) 2:20 p.m.

Franklin American/Music City Bowl: MS St, (SEC) vs W Forest (ACC) 5:40 p.m.

Insight Bowl: Iowa (B-10) vs Oklahoma (B-12) 9:00 p.m. Kick off

12/31/11 

Meineke CarCare of Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (B-12) vs Northwestern (B-10) 11:00 p.m.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs Utah (PAC-12) 1:00 p.m. Kick off

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati (B-East) vs Vanderbilt (SEC) 2:30 p.m. Kick off

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois (B-10) vs UCLA (PAC -12)  2:30 p.m. Kick off

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Virginia (ACC) vs Auburn (SEC) 6:30 p.m. Kick off

1/2/12 

TicketCity Bowl: Houston (C-USA) vs Penn State (B-10) 11:00 a.m. kick off

Outback Bowl: Michigan State (B-10) vs Georgia (SEC) 12:00 p.m. Kick off

Capital One Bowl: South Carolina (SEC) vs Nebraska (B-10) 12:00 p.m. Kick off

Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl: Ohio State (B-10) vs Florida (SEC) 12:00 p.m. Kick off

Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio: Wisconsin (B-10) vs Oregon (PAC 10) 4:00 p.m.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Stanford (PAC 12) vs Oklahoma State (B-12) 7:30 kick off

1/3/12   

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Michigan (B-10) vs Virginia State (ACC) 7:30 p.m. Kick off

1/4/12

Discover Orange Bowl: West Virginia (B-East) vs Clemson (ACC) 7:30 Kick off

1/6/12

AT&T  Cotton Bowl: Kansas State (B-12) vs Arkansas (SEC) 7:00 p.m. Kick off

1/7/12

BBVA Compass Bowl: SMU (C-USA) vs Pittsburgh (B-East) 12:00 p.m. Kick off

1/8/12

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State (SBC) vs Northern Illinois (MAC) 8:00 p.m.

1/9/12

Allstate BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (SEC) vs LSU (SEC) 7:30 p.m.

Posted in AAC, ACC, Alabama, Arizona State, Arkansas, Auburn, Big 12, Big Ten, Boise State, C-USA, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Iowa, LSU, MAC, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Mountain West, NC State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, PAC 12, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, San Diego State, SEC, South Carolina, SWAC, Texas, UCLA, Utah, Virginia, Wake Forest, Wisconsin |

FCS Tournament enters 3rd Round

The FCS playoff is in full swing and the field, as we enter the 3rd weekend, has dropped from 20 to their version of the Elite Eight.

Last Saturday’s action saw the vaunted CAA (Colonial Athletic Association) take one on the chin, they entered the 2nd round with 5 teams dancing and exited with only one standing. The CAA’s champion, Towson was upset by Lehigh, 40-38, James Madison fell to North Dakota State, 26-14, New Hampshire lost to Montana State, 26-25, and Old Dominion lost to Georgia Southern, 55-48. The only Colonial team to emerge from “Black Saturday” was Maine, who found away against perennial power, Appalachian State, 34-12.

In other action, the Southern Conference, entered the weekend with three teams, Appalachian State, Wofford, & Georgia Southern. As mentioned, Appalachian State lost to Maine, while Wofford stumbled @ North Dakota State 28-21. The one team from the SoCon (Southern Conference), Georgia Southern, that advance, did so by outlasting the Colonial’s Old Dominion, 55-48!

The Big Sky and the Missouri valley had much better showings in week two, as both conferences advanced their respective teams. The Big Sky’s Montana beat Southland Conference (not to be confused with the Southern Conference… different leagues) entree, Central Arkansas, 41-14 and Montana State survived their battle with New Hampshire, 26-25! Meanwhile, Missouri Valley Champion, North Dakota State stopped James Madison, 26-14 and Northern Iowa beat Wofford, 28-21.

Lehigh, representing the Patriot League, pulled off the day’s biggest upset, a 40-38 shocker over Colonial champion, Towson and did so by scoring a safety late in the 4th quarter. Although, the Mountain Hawks, may not agree with the use of the word ‘upset;” as a year ago they traveled to Northern Iowa and beat the Missouri Valley Champion. This marks the second year in a row, that a Patriot League Champ (Lehigh) went on the road and beat a conference champion in a league that is supposed to be superior to their own. Maybe they are right about the use of the word upset, I am now thinking the Hawks would  prefer  smashed, crushed, whipped, or whatever… just not upset ( I read their local paper)! That said, in any language, they are moving on!

This week’s action finds Lehigh @ North Dakota State -10.5, Northern Iowa @ Montana -1.5, Montana State @ Sam Houston -8, & Maine visiting Georgia Southern -8. And as always… Enjoy the Games

Posted in Big Sky, Colonial Athletic Association, Missouri Valley, Montana, Montana State, North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Patriot League, Southern Conference, Southland Conference |

ACC Championship Clemson vs Virginia Tech

Here we go again, Clemson (9-3) out of ACC’s Atlantic Division taking on Virginia Tech (11-1) out of the ACC’s Coastal Division. These teams met on October 1, with the Tigers putting a beat down on Va Tech, 23-3. In fact, this is the only loss suffered this season by the Hokies….perhaps a little pay back is in the wind?

Here we go again, Clemson, true to who they are, or at least, who they seem to be, have entered their “Bermuda Triangle Zone” and for no known scientific reason have faded from the national football radar detection grid! What’s with these guys? Every year… great athleticism, great skill, and seemingly, mentally focused to handle adversity when she comes a knocking…. and then… suddenly… gone!

Here we go again, in their last four games against, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, & South Carolina, the Tigers have turned the ball over 12 times… that’s right… 12! As a result, they have lost three of four, their only win was a “nail biter” against Wake Forest, 31-28!

Ok…. enough with here we go again! Let’s take a peek at the stats from the first game between the Tigers and the Hokies.  As mentioned, Clemson 23 Virginia Tech 3. Turnovers were even, 1 apiece and  penalties were almost identical, the Tigers had 5-61 yards and Va Tech had 6-60 yards. The Hokies ran the ball slightly better 133 yards to 119 for Clemson. While the Tigers had a big edge in passing yards, 204 to 125 the total yard output favored Clemson, 323 to 258. So as an initial look, the difference in the first game seems to be Clemson’s ability to effectively pass the ball against a very good Virginia Tech defense… or should we say, a very good Virginia Tech run defense.

Alright, let’s take a peek at these two teams vs the run and the pass. Clemson is allowing 196 YPG against the pass and 187 versus the run, while the Hokies are holding opponents to 99 YPG rushing and 203 YPG passing. Pretty clear that in the first meeting, Clemson recognized the Hokies strength against the run and quite effectively took to the airways. So look for Clemson to throw the ball and in my view, if they do that, I believe it will be the deciding factor in today’s game.

Besides the turnovers, what else have the Tigers been doing on offense and defense that may have impacted their recent woes and determine the outcome of  today’s game? In their last three losses, Clemson has rushed the ball for 95 yards against G-Tech, 34 yards vs NC State, and for 70 yards versus South Carolina. It looks as if the Tigers have abandoned the run in these past few games, a strategy that can and often does lead to disaster. Keep in mind, when they prevailed against Tech in their first encounter, the Tigers did rush the ball for 119 yards. In other words, that kept the Hokies LB’s and Safeties honest in their reads and allowed for Sammy Wadkins and DeAndre Hopkins to create some separation in their routes. To have a shot, Clemson has to recommit to the run! Please look for that early as I believe that strategy will impact late.

All that said, I think Clemson stays lost in the Triangle… Sorry to say…… Here we go again….. again, Virginia Tech 30 Clemson 16

Posted in ACC, Clemson, Georgia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest |