Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Georgia vs LSU

The SEC West rolls into this game vs the SEC East with a Michigan / Michigan State, Big Brother vs Little Brother national media perspective to put aside and focus on the task at hand. Georgia has won 10 games in a row, fields the 2nd best defense that LSU has faced this year (second only to Alabama), and have a distinctive advantage at quarterback. That said, while I believe LSU has the better team, Georgia has the athleticism to pull off the upset.

These teams have met only twice in the past five years. In 08, Georgia put a whipping on the Tigers, 52-38, @ Tiger Stadium, believe it or not and in 09, @ Sanford Stadium, LSU held off the Bulldogs, 20-13.

The Tigers & Bulldogs have played 6 common foes and are 12-0 against these teams. Let’s take a look at how they have done with these like opponents.  Kentucky; LSU beat (@ Home) the Wildcats 35-7 while the Bulldogs (@ Home) beat the cats 19-10. Florida; Georgia beat the Gators (in Jacksonville) 24-20 and LSU pounded Florida (@ Home) 41-11. Tennessee; LSU annihilated the Volunteers (in Knoxville), 38-7, while Georgia survived Tennessee (in Knoxville), 20-12. Ole Miss; the Bulldogs handled the Rebels, 27-13, in Oxford, meanwhile LSU destroyed Ole Miss, 52-3, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mississippi State; LSU held off Mississippi State, in Starkville, 19-6 meanwhile Georgia (@ Home) beat the other Bulldogs 24-10. Their final like opponent was Auburn, both Georgia and LSU hammered the other Tigers, Georgia 45-7 and LSU 45-10.

Other than the Auburn game, LSU makes the stronger case to win Saturday’s game, based on common opponent results. No Question about that!

Alright…Let’s take a statistical look at these teams and see if we get a different picture?

Total Offense; LSU averages 387 YPG while Georgia runs and passes for 424 YPG. In the category of Total Defense, LSU gives up 248 YPG while Georgia allows 271 YPG.

Scoring Offense: LSU puts up 38 PPG / Georgia totals 34 PPG, on the other side of the ball, Scoring Defense LSU allows 11 PPG / Georgia surrenders 18 PPG.

Offensive Turnovers: LSU give up the rock 0.67 times per game while the Bulldogs lose it 1.58 times per contest. Defensive Turnovers; LSU takes the ball away 2.25  per game/ Georgia has stolen it 2.42 in each of their 12 games.

There is no question that the statistics presented here indicate that the game should/will be closer than the common opponent data suggests. However, Aaron Murray, Georgia’s quarterback, has not seen a defense like LSU’s! The Tigers front 7 will be in his face all day long and LSU’s secondary will not allow any separation for his receivers. Georgia’s 10 game win streak ends… LSU 27 Goergia 10

Posted in Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, SEC |

Wisconsin vs Michigan State & Big Ten History

For the first time in Big Ten History we are going to experience a championship game, an excitement and a relevance  in December that this conference has left to others…. until now. The long time kingpins of the conference, Ohio State and Michigan, are not the Leaders and Legends Divisional representatives; it’s Wisconsin and Michigan State squaring off in Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium. A crowd of 65,000 (small by conference standards) is expected at the Big Ten’s inaugural championship game. That said, the Indianapolis business community is expecting a $17,000,000.00 impact to the local economy, that is not a small number! The timing of the contest is perfect for the host city, Pacers are coming back for Christmas, (NBA returns on the 25th) a needed holiday season boast (actually more like blast), and the Super Bowl is set to kick off on February 5th, @ Lucas Oil, as well! Without a doubt, Indy is on a roll.

This is also good news for the Green Bay Packers, I remember the first Super Bowl, which was played on January 15, 1967, a 35-10 Packer victory! This February date suggests that in 50 years or so, the game will be played in March and warm enough for the Packers, not only to win, but to host @ Lambeau! Just a side thought!

Michigan State and Wisconsin are meeting for the second time this year. State won the first encounter, but it took a Spartan crowd, a Hail Mary, and not just instant replay… game ending instant replay for MSU to prevail.  The 37-31 thriller will be hard to top and I, for one, do not anticipate the game to be that competitive this time around.  Wisconsin is clearly the better team and here are the facts to back up that fact!

3rd Down Offense & Defense

Wisconsin is the #1 team in the nation on 3rd down conversions… not second or third… first baby… with a conversion rate over 55%, while Michigan State stumbles in as the 82nd best in the country, with a 35% conversion rate on third down attempts. The Spartans are going to have one heck of a time getting the Badgers offense off the field. But you say…HEY…  those units are not on the field at the same time. You’re right …so let’s take a peek @ 3rd down defense.

Michigan State fields the 15th best 3rd down unit in all of FBS, allowing its opponent a 33% conversion rate; the Badgers are also very efficient on third down, allowing 1st down’s on just 36% of the attempts, for a ranking of 32nd best in America.

Considering 3rd down play on both sides of the ball… Advantage : Badgers

Red Zone Offense & Defense

Wisconsin is the 2nd best team in America (behind only Stanford) in Red Zone Offense, scoring 95% of the time when they enter the Red Zone and 86% of the time those scores are TD’s. Meanwhile, MSU is rated as the 67 best Red Zone Offense, putting points on the board 81% of the time with 60% of those scores being touchdowns.

On defending the Red Zone, the Spartans are the 15th best (identical to their 3rd down D) allowing scores 71% of the time with 53% of the scores being TD’s. The Badgers our the 43rd best Red Zone defenders, allowing scores 79% of the time when opponents enter their Red Zone with 54% being TD’s.

Wisconsin dominates Michigan State on the offensive side of these Red Zone statistics and are relatively close on scores given up and almost identical in allowing touchdowns. Advantage: Wisconsin

Total Offense & Total Defense

Wisconsin ranks 12 in the nation on offense averaging 477 YPG, (Yards Per Game) while Michigan State is 64/120, averaging 384 YPG. On Defense, the Spartans boast the third best in America, surrendering a mere 267 YPG, the Badgers, taking up the challenge, have the seventh best defense, allowing an anemic 278 YPG

Once Again… Advantage: Badgers

Scoring Offense & Scoring Defense

Here come the Badgers once again, putting up 45 PPG, (Points Per Game) the 4th best production in the country, the Spartans are averaging 30 PPG , ranking them 43/120. The Badgers are also fourth in the land in scoring defense, giving up 15.17 PPG with State right behind @ 15.42 PPG, rated as the 5th best scoring defense.

Wisconsin is ranked 4th on both sides of the scoreboard! Enough said! Advantage: Badgers

Turnovers: Offensive, Defensive & Margin

How good are these guys? Wisconsin has turned the ball over 8 times all year, you got it , they are ranked 1st in America (Tied with LSU… remember them?), the Spartans are careful with ball as well, having given it up 13 times all year. The Badgers are averaging 0.67 TPG (Turnovers Per game) while MSU loses the ball 1.08 times per game. In forcing Turnovers, the teams are both at 22, tied at 43/120!

In Turnover Margin, the Badgers are the 7th best in the country at a plus 1.17 (22 forced minus 8 lost = 14…. divided by 12 games = 1.17) while the Spartans are a plus .75  (22 forced minus 13 lost = 9 divided by 12 games = .75).

Once again…. Advantage: Badgers

This game should not have been close last time. Badgers 38 Michigan State 14

Posted in Big Ten, Michigan State, Wisconsin |

FCS Tournament Underway

For all those of you who long for the day when the FBS crowns its national champ with an end of the season tournament, here is how their closest neighbors, the FCS, navigate those waters. If you go to my home page and click on conferences, you will get a drop down Menu which has the following choices: FBS (AQ’s), FBS (Non AQ’s), FCS (AQ’s) and FCS (Non AQ’s).

I would like you to focus, for a minute, on the10 Conferences listed under the FCS (AQ’s) heading. The champion of each of these leagues earns an automatic birth (AQ Automatic Qualifier) into the 20 team tourney.

This year’s Champions; Big Sky: Montana, Big South: Stony Brook, Colonial Athletic Association: Towson, MEAC: Norfolk State, Missouri Valley: North Dakota State, Northeast: University of Albany, Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech, Patriot League: Lehigh, Southern Conference: Georgia Southern, & Southland Conference: Sam Houston State.

So 10 of the 20 teams are established by their regular season results… win your conference and you are in the playoffs, its that simple.

Now the fun begins, who gets the “at large bids” and how is the subjectivity of this process minimized. I must also tell you, I have not studied the logic for these decisions and have no idea how the these determinants guide the selection process.  For our purposes today, I am simply going to identify for you the teams selected and the conferences they represent. So we will not deal with how they minimize subjectivity, but I promise you, I will look into the guidelines that are used by the FCS selection committee for “at large invitations” during this FBS Bowl Season.

That said, lets see what  teams got invited to the FCS Tourney, without winning their league championship; Big Sky: Montana State; Colonial: Old Dominion, Maine, New Hampshire, & James Madison; Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa; Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky; Southern: Appalachian State & Wofford University, and Southland Conference: Central Arkansas. Here is the breakdown for at large bids; 4 from the Colonial, 2 from the Southern, and one each from the Big Sky, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, & Southland conferences.

The total conferences representation goes like this; Colonial had 5 teams or 25% of the field, Southern was next with 3 teams, followed by the Big Sky, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and Southland with 2 each for a total of 16 teams. The final four entries came as league champions from the Big South, MEAC, Northeast, & Patriot.

The Tournament is set up with 4 games in the first round, this will reduce the field to the needed 16 teams. These 16 teams will  compete in eight Second Round reducing the field to 8 teams and 4 games in Round Three. The semi-finals will occur in Round Four, where the 20 teams will have been reduced to the final two. The Championship Game will be played on January 7, 2012 in Frisco, Texas, at Pizza Hut Park.

The first round results are as follows: The Big South Champ, Stony Brook stopped the University of Albany, Champion of the the Northeast Conference, 31-28. Stony Brook moves on to face Sam Houston State, the #1 seed in the tourney and champions of the Southland Conference. In another First Round tilt, Tennessee Tech , the champions of the Ohio Valley fell 34-14 to Central Arkansas, an at large team, from the Southland Conference. Central Arkansas now heads west, to face the 4th seeded Montana Grizzles. In a third game on Saturday, the MEAC Champ, Norfolk State, was beaten 35-18 by Old Dominion, an at large team, from the Colonial Athletic Association. Georgia Southern, the 3rd seeded team, awaits the arrival of Old Dominion. In the final First Round contest, two at large teams battled, Eastern Kentucky from the Ohio Valley hooked up James Madison from the CAA, with James Madison prevailing, 20-17. James Madison, like Central Arkansas, is headed west, where they will take on North Dakota State, the # 2 seed in the Tournament.

I will keep you up-dated as the tournament moves now into the Second Round. As always Enjoy the Games.

Posted in Big Sky, Big South, Colonial Athletic Association, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast Conference, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Southern Conference, Southland Conference |

Tis the season to go Bowling

As the regular season in college football heads into its final weeks, let the speculation begin about BCS bowl assignments and then, how conference match-ups will fall into place.

For a team to be bowl eligible, it must win, @ least, 6 games in a 12 game schedule and 7, if a school elects to schedule a 13th game. A FBS team  (Football Bowl Subdivision… 85 Scholarship Program) can count a victory over a FCS (Football Championship Subdivision…63 Scholarship Program), as one of their required six wins, but can do so only once. If a FBS program schedules two FCS teams and were to win both game… only one of these wins count toward the required six for post season participation. In other words, they would still need to beat five FBS teams to become bowl eligible.

There are 35 bowl games this year and thus 70 FBS teams, there are currently 120, need to have the required number of wins to fill these slots. With that in mind, lets take a look at each conference and get an idea of how many teams in each league have met their burden.

The ACC has 9 of their 12 teams (Maryland, Duke & Boston College are not eligible), the Big East has qualified four of their 8 teams and the other four teams are still hopeful, as they all have 5 wins with a game to play. Since Pitt & Syracuse play one another, only three of the teams have a shot at the required 6th win. The Big Ten has qualified 10 of their 12 teams, with only Minnesota and Indiana left out of the post season; while the Big 12, has 8 of their 10, only Texas Tech and Kansas will be left at the alter! The SEC has 9 of their 12 teams ready to roll into the bowling season, with only Kentucky, Tennessee, & Ole Miss left at home. The PAC 12 has qualified 8 of its 12 teams, but USC is not eligible due to NCAA infractions, they will have only seven teams representing the conference in the bowl season.

So the AQ conferences have qualified 47 of the needed 70 teams. Notre Dame has qualified (48) and 3 other teams from the Big East can qualify with a win on Saturday. Thus by the end of the week, the AQ conferences could provide as many as 51 teams to the 35 bowls.

The Non AQ Conferences; Conference USA, Western Athletic Conference, Mid American Conference, Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt and 3 Independents will need to provide the remaining 23 to 19 teams. Let’s see how many teams in those conferences are bowl eligible.

Of the 3 independents, only BYU has the required number of wins, neither Navy or Army will qualify this year. C-USA has 5 teams that have six or more wins, Houston, Southern Mississippi, Southern Methodist, Tulsa, & Marshall; while the WAC has Utah State, Nevada, & Louisiana Tech all with six or more wins. Hawaii has six wins… but they play a 13th game (BYU) and will need the 7th win given that schedule. The MAC has qualified 6 teams for post season play… their best showing in recent years. The MWC will add 5 teams to the mix, with Boise & TCU as their headliners. Finally, the Sun Belt has qualified 4 of their nine teams to the Non AQ total.

The Non AQ conferences will provide 24 or 25 teams (depending on how Hawaii does with BYU) to the needed total of 70.

Thus, AQ and Non AQ team total could be as high as 76 or as low as 73, in either result,  the magic number of 70 will be met!

Posted in AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Boston College, C-USA, Duke, MAC, Mountain West, Notre Dame, PAC 12, SEC, SWAC |

Texas @ Texas A&M…. An IVY League Beginning & An SEC Ending

Texas A&M and Texas first played on October 19, 1894, this will be the 118th meeting with Texas leading the series, 75-37-5. Sadly, this will be the  last game in the the series  for the foreseeable future.

In 1893, two brothers, Paul and Ray McLane, who had been attending school in the East returned to University of Texas and brought with them a game they watched IVY League schools play… a game called football.  The brothers put together a make shift team @ UT, traveled to Dallas and took on the Dallas Athletic Club, who had been playing the game for about a decade. The boys from Austin prevailed, 18-16 and  Longhorn football was born (although the Texas Football Team would not be referred to as the Longhorns until 1903).

The next year, Texas took on Texas A&M, who at that time were known as the Cadets (1894), then later the Farmers (1900) and were not referred to as the Aggies until after WWII (Officially 1950). The A&M squad traveled to Austin and proceed to win the coin toss; that however, was the only thing they won as  the Texas “Varsity” put a 38-0 whipping on the A&M “Cadets” (worse than you may think as a TD only counted for 4 points in those days). In fact, A&M was so demoralized by the beat down, they canceled the rest of their season (although six weeks later, they did agree to play a high school team, Galveston Ball). Sorry, I do not have a score!

These teams have met in each of the past five years: in 06, A&M beat the Longhorns 12-7, in 07, the Aggies won again, 38-30, but in 08, Texas put a whipping on A&M, 49-9. The teams met again in 010 with the Horns out scoring the Aggies, 49-39 and last year, the Aggies outlasted the Longhorns, 24-17. So Texas A&M has beaten Texas in 3 of the last 5 contests.

Texas A&M enters the game armed with the sixth best offense in the country averaging 514 YPG, while Texas counters with 402 YPG, the 48th most productive offense in the FBS. In Total Defense: Texas is giving up 295 YPG (10th best) while A&M is surrendering 400 YPG (76th best). When considering 3rd Down Defense: Texas A&M is ranked 81st while Texas is the 16th best in the nation.   On the other side of the ball, the Aggies are ranked 19th in 3rd Down Conversions (47% conversion rate) while Texas is successful 45% of the time on third down.

This is the last meeting between these teams until, at least, 2019 and fittingly, the game is being played at Kyle Field, A&M home stadium (first game, in 1894, was played in Austin). Emotions are always high for this game… but no-where near what they will be like tonight.

Texas A&M is leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, primarily for the reason (their perception) that Texas has used its name / power to benefit itself at their and other conference teams expense. The way revenue is shared in the Big 12 is not based on an equal distribution  model, as in the Big Ten or the SEC. Texas gets the yeoman share of Big 12 dollars and A&M, like Nebraska (left for the Big Ten) and Missouri (also headed for the SEC) have had enough of what they believe is a system that favors Texas; and does so in a manner, that they believe to be inconsistent with the rational for establishing an athletic conference.

A old rivalry that has IVY League origins will end tonight with A&M singing: “We got a ticket to ride”…. a straight shot to SEC West! Make sure you find time to watch this one… Enjoy the Game!  Texas A&M 35 Texas 17

Posted in Big 12, Texas |

Thank You Iowa State

Let the BCS confusion commence baby. ISU’s 37-31 overtime win @ home against Oklahoma State last night has created the perfect beginning for the ending of a great season. Now the Big 12 Champ will have at least one loss after “the Bedlam Game” (Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State) next week in Stillwater. The winner will finish 11-1 and have a case to be in the BCS National Championship Game, in New Orleans, on January 9th!

That said, it will be a reach, Oklahoma’s best receiver, Ryan Broyles, is out for the season and Oklahoma State’s loss to the Cyclones last night, are at the least problematic for both teams to realizing that championship experience. Oklahoma is the antithesis of Dennis Green’s perspective of the Chicago Bears “they are who we thought they were'” in the Sooners case, many will be believing “they’re not who we think they are” minus Broyles! Giving all due respect to Iowa State (6-4) tremendous win over Oklahoma State, it will be a loss that will haunt the Cowboys, even if they prevail against Sooners, in their claim to belonging in the BCS Championship Game.

In the PAC 12: Oregon welcomes USC to Eugene’s Autzen Stadium and to 54,000 very loud noise making lunatics. To continue the BCS confusion, we need Oregon to prevail in this game, beat Oregon State in the so-called “Civil War” next week, and then beat whoever shows from the PAC 12 South in the conference championship game. This will leave the Ducks @ 13-1 and claiming their 13 straight wins should land them a spot in the BCS Championship! Clearly, Oregon will have a better argument than Oklahoma (their lone defeat was @ the hands of LSU, 40-27 while Oklahoma’s loss was to Texas Tech, 41-38).

The Big Ten & Big East will not have a team up for championship consideration, even though I believe Wisconsin (minus two Hail Mary’s) has the offensive talent to play with the best teams in the country, while concealing a defense that may be a step slow.

The ACC has two teams with one loss, Clemson & Virginia Tech. Clemson loss to Georgia Tech, 31-17, while the Hokies were beaten by Clemson, 23-3. If these teams win out, they will meet in Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium on December 3rd to decide the ACC Championship. If this occurs, one of these teams will finish @ 13-1 and ask the question, “what about us?

The real fun though is in the SEC: In order to realize complete disorder… make sure you cheer for Arkansas to beat LSU on Thanksgiving Weekend and Alabama to beat Auburn in the “Iron Bowl”! If everything else goes according to Hoyle, that will leave LSU, Bama, & Arkansas all tied in the conference @ 7-1 and 11-1 overall. The Tie-breaker will kick in and the West Division Champ will take on either Georgia or South Carolina.

The biggest key to actual BCS madness is that Arkansas / LSU game next week! A win by the Razorbacks … and insanity rules! Enjoy the games….

Posted in AAC, ACC, Alabama, Arkansas, Big Ten, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon, PAC 12, SEC, South Carolina, Wisconsin |

SEC: Everything East & West

The SEC East is relatively easy to figure out, if Georgia beats Kentucky on Saturday, they win the division, lose to the Wildcats and South Carolina is the champ. It’s that simple! South Carolina (6-2) is finished with SEC play, all they have left on their schedule is an FCS opponent, The Citadel and in-state rival, Clemson. After opening the season with a 35-21 loss to Boise State, and losing a wild score-fest, 45-42, to South Carolina, Georgia has won 8 in a row! They are 6-1 in the SEC and a victory this weekend will leave them at 7-1 and headed to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. If the Bulldogs lose at home to the Wildcats, they will finish tied with the Gamecocks @ 6-2 and bases on Carolina’s head to head win, they, (South Carolina) not Georgia, will travel to Atlanta! So we are down to one game to decide the East.

The West, better get a fresh cup of whatever you are drinking, make a P call, and settle in… as this may take a while. The Game of the Century, LSU’s 9-6 overtime victory over Bama, I believe will turn out to be the beginning of something special rather than the end to determining who wins the West.

I heard Mike Greenberg, from Mike & Mike in the Morning comment on the LSU / Alabama battle, by stating that “the game, at times, was hard to watch”. I really do not agree, as my good buddy, Jack Roeder, likes to say, “those guys are faster than the sound of light!” No one in America, including the best scientific minds at NASA have any idea what that means or how fast the sound of light travels? I get Greeney, he’s a NFL guy and the Tiger/Tide affair had little to no offense, but Jack’s Sound of Light really came to mind watching the speed of those defenses. I enjoyed the game and I believe there is more, a lot more, on the way!

This week Arkansas (5-1) takes on Mississippi State (1-5), Alabama (6-1) host Georgia Southern (FCS Team out of the Southern Conference), and LSU (6-0) travels to Oxford to take on Ole Miss (0-6). This is the calm before the storm, it begins the following Saturday (11-19) with Alabama traveling to Auburn (4-3) for the “Iron Bowl” and the Razorbacks heading south to Baton Rouge, to tame the Tigers.

I think Alabama will find a way against their hated in state adversaries, while Auburn will compete hard, it will not matter, the Tide Rolls. This means Bama finishes with a 7-1 conference slate.

Arkansas has, arguably, the best receivers in the country with Joe Adams, Darius Wright, Chris Gregg, & Greg Childs and no question the best the vaunted LSU secondary has faced this season. The Razorback Quarterback, Tyler Wilson, has proved he can take a hit and keep on keeping on… he will need to do just that as he will be punished in this game. The two wild cards are the Hogs O-line and the Tiger’s QB, Jordan Jefferson. If Arkansas is going to prevail, the Offensive line has to control LSU’s front seven and give Wilson the time he will need to throw the ball. Arkansas has to get an early lead and force Jefferson to play from behind, put in this position, he is quiet capable of making poor decisions. Given the right circumstances, Arkansas has the talent to beat LSU and I, for one, (perhaps the only one) believe the Razorbacks are going to get this done!

That said, we will have a log jam at the top of the SEC West; Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU will all be at 7-1. In looking at the SEC Divisional tie breakers; it looks like you would need to get to the 8th level …. the highest ranked BCS team….. to determine a division winner! How about Georgia vs Arkansas in the SEC Championship Tilt….. Enjoy the Games.

 

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina |

Big Ten Legends…. What’s on Second

Anyone who has ever coached will tell you a conference game has a different feel to it than other regular season games. That perception has created some surprising outcomes over the years. Just ask Nebraska, the last time they played Northwestern was in the 2000 Alamo Bowl, a record setting 66-17 blasting of the Cats. In fact, the 66 points the Huskers piled on the Wildcats was the most they have scored in their 47 game bowl history. So how does one explain Northwestern’s 28-25 win over Nebraska and doing it in Lincoln to boot. To me it is simple… it’s called a conference game.

Let’s take a look at some of the meaningful games left in the Legends Division and who has the inside track.

Michigan State holds all the cards right now, if they win @ home against Indiana and then beat Northwestern at Ryan Field, they will win the division. However, two other teams, Michigan & Nebraska are still in the hunt.

If Michigan is to win out, they will have to beat both Nebraska and Ohio State. While both games are in the “Big House” this is still a tall order. If the Wolves win both of these games, to me, it clearly suggests that they are the best team in the Legends. But the sad truth is it will not matter unless Michigan State loses, not one, but both of its remaining games. Michigan needs Michigan State to finish @ 5-3 or turn out the lights, the party’s over. The Spartans beat the Wolverines in their head to head battle, 28-14, and if they both finish 6-2, the Spartans have the tie breaker. So…. Michigan, while alive, is clearly on life support.

Nebraska heads to Ann Arbor for a showdown of the two best rushing QB’s in the Big Ten, Taylor Martinez & Denard Robinson, and with the Legends championship swaying in the balance. If Nebraska wins, they stay alive for one more week, if they lose and Michigan State wins, both Nebraska and Michigan are eliminated and the Spartans are the Legends Champs. For Nebraska to have a chance, they must beat Michigan and then beat Iowa @ home in a short week, the Friday after Thanksgiving.

That said and done, it will not be enough, the Huskers need help from the team that put them in this predicament, you’ve got it… Northwestern. If the Cats claw the Spartans, not only will that leave both teams at 6-2 (Provided MSU beats the Hoosiers @ home), but since the Huskers beat State, 24-3, they have the tie breaker and will win the Legends. If this happens, I, for one, say they deserve it! Last week they won @ State College in front of 107,282 PSU faithful (college football second largest venue), this week they will play at Michigan Stadium (college football largest venue) in front of 109,091 committed Wolverine fans, and then return home to battle the Hawks in that short week.

All good, but remember the Huskers need help! So if you hear “Go Cats” reverberating across the American Great Plains… you now know why! And while you might say “Michigan State is better than Northwestern… so forget it” and I would say, “so what if they are better…it’s a conference game”.

Tomorrow let’s take a look at the SEC and what those games can / will mean to the BCS National Championship Game.

Posted in Big Ten, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State |

Big Ten Leaders Division… Who’s on first?

I’ll bet Big Ten Commissioner Jimmy Delany is saying “I told you so” (maybe not in words but at least with a look) to any of his critics regarding the conference’s realignment into the Leaders and Legends Divisions. This new structures has created more interest and greater opportunity this late in the season than at any other time in Big Ten history!

Penn State (5-1) controls their own fate with a win @ Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions game this week @ Ohio State means nothing, unless Wisconsin loses @ Illinois. Then an Ohio State win over Penn State and a Lion loss the next week at Madison, would leave all three teams with 5-3 records – assuming OSU beats Michigan at the Big House on Thanksgiving weekend. So for Penn State, if they win both games they are in, if the lose @ OSU and win in Madison they are still in, and even if they lose both games they still have a chance.

Wisconsin (4-2) also controls its own destiny, a win at Illinois and a victory over Penn State in Madison sends the Badgers down the road to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Companionship Game. A loss at Illinois and the Badgers will need OSU to beat Penn State and then, the Badgers will have beat the Nittany Lions. This will create a three way tie, provided OSU beats the Wolverines. If Michigan beats the Bucks, then Wisconsin and PSU would be tied and the Badgers would have the tie breaker with PSU… via the head to head win.

OSU (3-3) needs help; they have to beat PSU and Michigan and then need PSU has to lose @ Wisconsin and for the Badgers to lose @ Illinois. This will leave all three teams with identical 5-3 records and since the Bucks will have beaten both the Badgers and the Lions, they will be the Leaders winner!

How do you like them apples? But wait, there is more, a lot more.

In the event that OSU wins two, PSU loses two, and Wisconsin loses to the Illini and beats the Lions, do not forget about Purdue! They are 3-3 right now and if they beat Iowa at home and Indiana on the road…. you got it…. a four way tie! Purdue beat Ohio State, so the head to head to determine the division winner is no longer in play. A three way tie that involves Purdue, Wisconsin, and Penn State would leave the Badgers as the division’s winner as they would have beaten both the Lions and Boilers.

If a four way tie happens and the conference does what it did a year ago, the team with the highest BCS ranking would represent the Leaders in Indianapolis. This is way to much fun!

We will take a look at the Legends tomorrow.

Posted in Big Ten, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin |

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech

The Ramblin Wreck from Georgia Tech need to find away tonight when the Hokies from Virginia Tech come-a-calling. G-Tech is 4-2 in the ACC Coastal and 7-2 overall, while Va Tech is 5-1 in ACC play and 8-1 on the season. A win, by the Yellow Jackets, will leave both teams @ 5-2 and with G-Tech having the divisional tie breaker. Bobby Dodd Stadium should be @ capacity (55,00) and rocking tonite!

These teams have met in each of the past five years: in 06 The Yellow Jackets won in Blacksburg, 38-27, in 07, the Hokies returned the favor, winning in Atlanta, 27-3, and in 08, Va Tech held off G-Tech @ home, 20-17. In 09, the Wreck survived the Hokies, 28-23 and last year, in Va Tech’s Lane Stadium (66,233) the Hokies stopped a determined Yellow Jacket Team, 28-21.

Georgia Tech brings the nation’s 14 ranked team in Total Offense into the contest averaging 473 YPG, while Virginia Tech counters with the 39th best Offense @ 427 YPG. The Yellow Jackets boast the 2nd rated rushing attack in the country, they are running the ball to the tune of 327 YPG, Va Tech is at 200 YPG, good enough to hold down the 25th spot nationally. In Passing Offense, the Hokies are averaging 227 YPG (65th) while the Yellow Jackets are @ 147 YPG (109/120). In Scoring Offense, the the Ramblin Wreck are putting up 38 PPG (17 in the land) and Va Tech is ringing it up @ 29 PPG (52/120) In the 4 offensive categories we reviewed, Georgia Tech has an edge in Total Offense, Rush Offense, & Scoring Offense, while the Hokies are the better passing team.

On Defense, in those same categories, Va Tech is giving up 298 YPG (12th in the country) meanwhile G-Tech is surrendering 348 YPG for a ranking nationally of 37th. In Rushing Defense, Virginia Tech is the 5th best in America, effectively defending the run by holding opponents to 86 YPG, the yellow Jackets are ranked 69th being run on for for a total of167 YPG. In defensing the pass, Georgia Tech gives up 181 YPG (15th best) while V-Tech is giving up 212 YPG, ranking 46th nationally. Finally, in Scoring Defense, the Hokies are the 6th stingiest in the land @ 15 PPG, while the Wreck allows 23 PPG for a ranking of 46 of 120.

Interesting to note that Va Tech led in three defense categories, the same three they trailed in on the offensive side of the ball; and the only area they let in on the offensive side of the ball, passing, was the exact area that G-Tech out-performed them on defense.

Virginia Tech is a disciplined defense and you better be when playing against the triple option. To be successful, you have to be committed to assignment defense (your position’s responsibility first) and then get after the ball! If you go after the first thing that moves, Georgia Tech will make you look like a Dope individually and for a team…. clueless Dopes. Virginia Tech, led Coach Frank Beamer, will commit to their responsibilities first, making 11/10/11 a long night for Coach Paul Johnson’s team! Virginia Tech 28 Georgia Tech 17

Posted in ACC, Georgia Tech |