Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

LSU @ Bama

Here we go… another “Game of the Decade”. This is a great game on paper, but I would prefer we let it play out before we canonized it as “The Game of the Century”… hey, for all we know… it may be the Game of the Millennium!

I’ve got an idea, let’s take a statistical look-see at these teams and see what the data tells us.

1) First everyone (including cousin Willie), is babbling about how LSU has played a better schedule. The two best teams LSU has played, record-wise, are Oregon 7-1 and West Virginia 6-2. The Tigers beat the Ducks (Go Figure… a Tiger against a DUCK) 40-27 and the Mountaineers 47-12, no question both wins were demonstrations of LSU’s ability to dominate on a football field. Meanwhile, Bama’s best opposition has come, in part, from the ranks of the Big Ten, an 8-1 Penn State and a SEC divisional foe, a 7-1 Arkansas. The Tide washed away the Nittany Lions 27-11 and hog tied the Razorbacks 38-14. I believe Penn State is quite capable of beating West Virginia; State plays great defense and their running back, Silas Redd (111.8 YPG), is having a great season! While Arkansas, with their tough-tailed QB Tyler Wilson, excellent receivers in Joey Adams, Jarius Wright, & Chris Gragg, and the emergence of running backs Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo, to replace all-conference Knile Davis, leave little doubt but that they can go score to score with Oregon while playing a tad better statistically on defense. So if you look at the total body of work, not just the non-conference schedule, there is little difference between the quality of opponent. Advantage: Push

2) In Total Offense: Alabama is @ 458 YPG to LSU 372 YPG, while in Total Defense: Bama is surrendering 181 YPG and LSU’s allowing 251 YPG. Advantage: Alabama

3) Offensive Passing Yards: LSU is at 180 YPG and The Tide is averaging 228, while in Passing Defense: The Tigers are allowing 175 yards per game and Tide 136. Advantage: Alabama

4) Rushing Offense: Alabama 229 to LSU’s 192 YPG and on the other side of the ball, Rushing Defense: Bama surrenders a mere 47 YPG to LSU’s 77 YPG. Advantage: Alabama

5) Scoring Offense: LSU 39 & Alabama 39 points per game; in Scoring Defense: LSU 12 and Bama 7. Advantage: Alabama

6) Offensive Turnovers: LSU is turning the ball over at an impressive .38 while Alabama is turning the ball over @ 1 per game. Defensive Turnovers: LSU is forcing almost 3 turnovers a game @ 2.75 to Bama’s forcing almost 2 @ 1.75. Advantage LSU

7) Third Down Conversions: LSU converts their 3rd down attempts 46% of the time while the Tide is successful to the tune of 51%. Third Down Stops: LSU stops their opponents 32% of the time on 3rd down, while Bama is more successful at stopping their opposition @ 26%! Advantage: Alabama

8) Red Zone Offense: When LSU has penetrated a team’s Red Zone (20 yard line to goalline) they have scored 97% (Touchdowns or Field Goals) of the time and 79% of the scores are touchdowns. While Alabama has scored 85% of the time when they have entered the red zone, 58% are touchdowns. In Red Zone Defense: LSU has allowed their opponents to score at a rate of 94% of which 56% are TDs. While Bama allows their opposition to score only 67% of the time when they penetrate into the Red Zone, 56% are TDs. Advantage: Push

So there you have it; Bama seems to have a clear statistical edge and should win the game hands down. So in the words of Dandy Don, “Turn out the lights, the party is over” or is this a Lee Corso moment; “not so fast my friend!”

Hank Koebler, an NFL & NCAA football writer, did a study of who wins NFL games and the statistic that most often indicates the winner. Koebler looked at data over a 10 year period and found that looking at turnovers, isolated from all other statistical data, whoever won the turnover battle won the game an astounding 70% of the time.

LSU’s defense is out performing Alabama in forcing turnovers, so it is quite possible that this stat is what the game will turn on! Also, a fact to consider among the many is play in the Red Zone, LSU scores 97% of the time when they enter “the zone” while Bama allows opponents to score just 67% of the time.

This game should be a lot of fun: Alabama 24 LSU 21

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Big Ten, LSU, Penn State, SEC, West Virginia |

ACC: Week 10

Here is a peek at the upcoming games in the ACC: Boston College (2-6) hosts Florida State (5-3) on Thursday night; Clemson (8-1) is idle , Duke (3-5) is at Miami (4-4), Georgia Tech (7-2) has a bye; NC State (4-4) welcomes North Carolina (6-3), Virginia (5-3) visits Maryland (2-6), Va Tech (8-1) does not play and Wake Forest (5-3) awaits Notre Dame (5-3).

BC beat Maryland last week, 28-17, a big win considering their only other victory was against Massachusetts, 45-17, an FCS team out of the CAA. Florida State comes into the contest riding a three game win streak, having handled both Duke and Maryland by an identical score of 41-16 and then pounding NC State 34-0 last week. Florida State is favored by14.5 to 15 points and even though BC has won 3 of the last 5 meetings… that fact will not impact Saturday’s outcome! Due to early losses to Oklahoma 23-13, Clemson 35-30 and Wake Forest 35-30, the Seminoles are now playing without any pressure and their talent and skills levels, unaffected by high expectations, will allow them to win and cover. FSU 42 BC 10

The Blue Devils of Duke are playing a better brand of football this season. A win over BC, 20-19, beating FIU, 31-27, one of the best teams in the Sun Belt, a narrow defeat @ home to Wake, 24-23, and a hard fought, 14-10, loss to Virginia Tech last week are all indicators of improved play.

That said, we need a timeout and a moment to share a thought with Kevin White, Duke’s Athletic Director… please stop scheduling the Richmond Spiders, an FCS team out of the CAA. In 06, Richmond 13 Duke zip, in 09, Richmond 24 Duke 16 and this year, The Spiders 23 Blue Devils 21. One could make a horror movie based on these outcomes and call it “The Year (pick one) of the Spider in Durham or “Fear the Spider”, or we could just not schedule them anymore… ever!! Kevin, I encourage you to quietly and quickly go with the third option. Just a thought Professor, my brother Pat says your a smart guy… I’ll be watching for a spider free environment!

Alright, that covered, let’s get back to the game. Miami is a 15 to 15.5 point favorite and has beaten Duke in each of the last 5 meetings by an average of 13.2 points. However, the past three years the Hurricanes have won by an average of 17 points, in 08, 49-31, in 09, 34-16, and in 010, 28-13. Miami is coming off a tough loss to Virginia, 28-21, @ home, as is Duke, having gone toe to toe with the Hokies, in a 14-10 loss. It should be noted that Duke held Va Tech without a score from the 10 minute mark of the 2nd quarter through the end of the game and forced the Hokies into six straight possessions that ended with a punt. Most impressive! All that said, Miami is at home and aware of what Coach Cutcliffe’s team did on ‘D’ last week. Miami 28 Duke 24

With many of the ACC title contenders (Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech & Clemson) sitting at home this week, the nation’s attention, as it relates to ACC football, will be tuned into Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Where a Demon Deacon will face off with a Leprechaun. Forget Catholics vs Convicts, that is/was just a street fight… this battle come Saturday night will be waged on the Ethereal Plain.

Many college football fans across the country will not be familiar with Wake Forest’s long and integrated history with the Baptists Church. This connection gave rise to the Demon Deacon mascot in 1923 and the current costume was first designed and worn in 1941. The Top Hat, Tuxedo, and the Umbrella were specifically intended to reflect the attire of a Baptist Deacon.

So the billing could have been: Deacons vs Fairies or how about Demons vs Evil Spirits (Leprechauns were said to be the off-spring of an Evil Spirit and a Degenerate Fairy; D R McAnally; Irish Wonders) ; either way, there is no question this game should have been played last week… it has Halloween written all over it….. think of the costumes!

I do know this, when the King of Ulster, Fergus mac Le’ti, was attacked by Leprechauns, who attempted to drag him into the sea, he fought back and captured his would be abductors. If ever captured by humans, Leprechauns have the magical ability to grant three wishes to secure their release. If the Irish are feeling trapped late in the game, they may yet negotiate their release, not with a Hail Mary, but with their Three Magical Wishes. In the event that Wake accepts the offer, I know what the Deacons three wishes will be: 1) A win next week in Death Valley, 2) A win at home against the Terrapins the following week, and 3) A victory in the ACC Companionship Game. Enjoy the Games….

Posted in ACC, Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, NC State, Notre Dame, Virginia, Wake Forest |

Hail Mary says Wisconsin

All Atheists and Agnostics in Wisconsin are being rounded up by order of Governor Walker and escorted to the Michigan and Ohio borders, given rosaries and told not to return until they have said 300,000 Hail Mary’s. Ok… I made that up, but I’ll bet it crossed the Gov’s mind.

The real sad truth here is the Badgers will now be the ones to put OSU into the Big Ten’s first championship game with a win over Penn State on Thanksgiving weekend.

Penn state plays Nebraska at home and then finishes on the road in Columbus and Madison. The Nittany Lions are currently 5-0 in the conference, in fact, their only loss was to Alabama, 27-11. Guess who gave Bama their closest game this year; you got it….. Penn State! They are better than people are saying and the Lions currently enjoy a two & half game lead on both the Bucks & the Badgers. They will beat Nebraska, a one dimensional offensive run fest in State College, and head to Columbus with a 6-0 mark. OSU then beats PSU to pull within one game of the lead, and then a frustrated Wisconsin pounds Penn State @ Camp Randall. This will leave the Buckeye, the Nittany Lions and the Badgers all at 6-2 and Ohio State, with head to head wins over both Penn State & Wisconsin, will represent the Leaders Division in Indianapolis.

Maybe the Badgers should consider saying a few Our Fathers, when Michigan welcomes Ohio State to the the Big House… You know, the Big house… The Big Guy… Just a thought…

Posted in Big Ten, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin |

SEC Recap of Week 9

The bullies of the conference were idle, LSU & Bama were sitting at home, sharpening their teeth and gearing up for their their battle in Tuscaloosa this weekend. Those two powers aside, this conferences has great games each and every week. Here is a peek at what happened.

Let’s start down in Nashville with upstart Vandy taking on those “hogs” from Fayetteville. On paper this looked like a tail whipping, but nobody told the Commodores or maybe they did and didn’t like what they heard! This game looked a bit like a Notre Dame game, Vanderbilt driving right down the field and inside the one… going for the score… oops… a fumble and a 96 yard return for a touchdown. Instead of Arkansas being down by two scores and in serious trouble, they’re now tied and then survive, 31-28 Razorbacks!

In Jacksonville, Florida, the used to be “worlds largest outdoor cocktail party” found Georgia and Florida battling to keep their SEC hopes alive. The Bulldogs were tough on the Florida run game , the Gators were held to minus 19 yards rushing. Still the Gators led most of the way, but in the end, Arron Murray and company found a way – Georgia 24 Florida 20

In Knoxville, South Carolina and Tennessee squared off, the Volunteers have struggled since losing their quarterback Tyler Bray earlier in the season. No question that the Vols came to play; they led after one, 3-0 and trailed only 7-3 at half time. Tennessee held the Gamecocks to 87 yards rushing and forced three turnovers, 2 fumbles recovered and one pass intercepted. It was not enough… South Carolina put one more score on the board in the third quarter and prevailed @ Neyland Stadium, 14-3.

This sets the stage for a huge game in Fayetteville this weekend, as South Carolina heads southwest to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, where the the Razorbacks lie in wait. Based on a 45-42 win in Athens over Georgia, the Gamecocks hold the tie breaker in the event the season were to end with the Gamecocks tied with the Bulldogs. A loss and Georgia is in the drivers seat to represent the East in Atlanta.

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Notre Dame, SEC, South Carolina |

Wisconsin @ Ohio State

Here is a news flash for those of you who counted Ohio State as dead and buried after an 0-2 start to their Big Ten season. Please note, their two losses were to Michigan State and Nebraska, both of these teams are in the Legend side of the conference and thus their records and head to head tie breakers will not apply directly to OSU’s situation in the Leaders race. If Ohio State were to win out, the only team that could still be in front of them would be Penn State. PSU is currently undefeated in conference play, however, they play Nebraska, Ohio State, & Wisconsin on consecutive weekends to end the season. To make a bad situation worse, the Nittany Lions will lace ’em’ up against the Buckeyes & Badgers in Columbus and Madison respectively. It is unlikely that Penn State will march through this part of their schedule unscathed.

OSU’s season is on the line tonight, a loss to the Badgers and they will have only a mathematical possibility at the division crown, as it is extremely unlikely that Penn State and Wisconsin would both have three losses. The same is true for the Badgers, if they win @ the Horseshoe, they control their own flight to the top of the Leaders Board. A loss to the Buckeyes and the Badgers would need help with both Penn State and Ohio State to win the Leaders Division.

Wisconsin enters the game coming off its first loss of the season, a 37-31 last second shocker to Michigan State. It will be interesting to see where the Badgers are mentally and emotionally, as OSU and its environment will demand Wisconsin’s complete focus. No question, the coaches and players are aware of the importance of the resiliency of spirit, yet it is one thing to know and another to live. Adversity will come a knocking tonight, no doubt about that, Ohio State will bring it and it will be a determining factor in this game as to how Wisconsin responds.

These teams have met in each of the past four seasons; in 07 OSU handled the Badgers @ home, 38-17, and in 08, the Buckeyes survived in Madison, 20-17. In 2009 the teams played at the Horseshoe and once again OSU handled the Badgers, 31-13; however, last year in Madison, the Badgers gave the Buckeyes their only defeat in 2010, 31-18.

This year they have two common opponents in Nebraska & Michigan State. OSU & Wisconsin both lost to Spartans, the Badgers on a last second “Hail Mary” at Spartan Stadium and a depleted Ohio State lost at home. The Badgers beat Nebraska 48-17 at home while the Buckeyes lost a big 4th quarter lead and fell to the Huskers 34-27 in Lincoln.

Checkout the individual team pages on this site to get more specific data. Please keep in mind that Boom Herron did not play until the Illinois game and while his presence had a positive effect on the Bucks offense, his absence, has negatively impacted OSU statistical data.

Braxton Miller is growing into the QB position @ Ohio State and had he not suffered an injury in the Nebraska game, OSU may, and probably would have won that game; yet the Badgers have the clear edge at quarterback given Russell Wilson’s ability to run or throw. Danny ‘Boom” Herron is a terrific running back but the duel threat of Montee Ball and James White more than offset any advantage that that Herron creates for OSU. This game will spin on who plays the best defense and OSU’s defense is better than the Badgers. That said, the key to Wisconsin winning this game will be their ability to keep the Bucks defense on the field. The Badgers need to win the time of possession battle to create the venue for their massive offensive line to pound on that quick OSU defense. I believe the Badgers do just that ….. Wisconsin 35 OSU 24

Posted in Big Ten, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin |

Michigan State @ Nebraska

Michigan State has survived a very difficult month, October 1 they traveled to OSU ( Ohio State was 3-1 @ game time) and won a hard fought game, 10-7, they then welcomed Michigan, (Wolves were 6-0 at game time) the Spartans figuratively as well as literally “beat the Wolverines up”, 28-14. Then for the 2nd year in a row Sparty hosted Wisconsin (6-0 at game time) and the Mighty Badgers were sent away without a smile but were given a pray… a Hail Mary & 37-31 loss. Now Nebraska (6-1) awaits the Spartans arrival in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers have never lost to MSU, a perfect 5-0, with the last meeting taking place in 2003 @ the Alamo Bowl, a 17-3 Nebraska victory.

It has been difficult for me to exercise from my mind the Capital One Bowl, a 49-7 beat down the Spartans suffered at the hands of the Crimson Tide . When one sees MSU right next to Alabama in several defensive categories, Total Defense: Bama 1, State 2, 3rd Down Defense: Tide 2 & MSU 8, & Passing Defense: Michigan State 2 and Alabama 3… I just don’t believe that MSU’s talent is anywhere near the ability levels of Bama. But the Spartans keep winning and I do believe that Wisconsin could play and win in the SEC. Two teams in that league are better than the Badgers, LSU and Alabama, them aside, the Badgers would / could beat, including my personal favorite, Arkansas, the rest of the teams in that conference. So it is time for me to get past that one bowl game and take the Spartans behavior seriously … they’re good! Wait a minute, they lost to ND (4-3) though… That’s enough… they are good and were moving on with that thought!

Let’s look at these teams strength vs strength. The Cornhuskers are the 16th most effective team in the country once they arrive in the Red Zone (20 yard line to the goal line). They have entered the Red Zone 34 times this season and scored 31, in other words, they put points on the board 91% of the time. To counter this threat, MSU has allowed only 12 penetrations into the Red Zone they defend, which has resulted in 9 scores (7 TD 2 FG) so there is a 75% chance if you get into the Spartan Red Zone you will score and a 58% probability the score will be a TD. The question is, can Nebraska get into MSU’s RZ?

Nebraska is ranked as the 20th best scoring team in the nation. They are averaging 37.6 PPG, in the Big Ten, only Wisconsin (47.4) puts more points on the board. This plays right into another Spartan strength as they are the 7th best scoring defense in the country giving up 13.7 PPG. So the question is, once again, can Nebraska’s Offense move the ball into scoring position against the Michigan State Defense.

Now the fun part and where this game will be decided! MSU has the 8th best run defense in the land surrendering 88.9 YPG, while Nebraska has the 7th rated rush offense in the nation, 261 YPG with an average rush for 5.5 YPC. The Spartan defense has struggled in two games this year, the ND and Wisconsin games. In both of these contests they gave up 31 points… why? The answer is simple, the Irish and the Badgers are balanced offensively, both teams have good to very good runners (ND Jonas Gray & Cierre Wood and the Badgers Montte Ball & James White) and have excellent receivers (ND’s Michael Floyd & Tyler Eifert and the Badgers Nick Toon & Jared Abbrederis). Not so with Nebraska, they are ranked 103rd of the 120 FBS teams in Passing Offense: 171.7 YPG with a weak completion rate of 54.8.

No question the X factor here is Nebraska’s Memorial Stadium and 85,000 lunatics, if this game were at night… but it is not… an 11:00 a.m start. MSU 24 Nebraska 17

 

Posted in Alabama, Arkansas, Big Ten, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, SEC, Wisconsin |

Georgia vs Florida in Jacksonville

While the game is no longer referred to as the “Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” I do not believe Temperance Union Members will be present in large numbers. This contest will go a long way in determining who will represent the East in Atlanta on December 3rd. However, if South Carolina wins out, the former “Cocktail Party” will have no relevance, as the Gamecocks are the only team in the division who control their own vehicle in the journey to Atlanta and the SEC Title Game. South Carolina (4-1) beat Georgia (4-1), in Athens, 45-42 and as a result, hold the tie breaker with the Bulldogs in the event they finish with identical SEC records. However, South Carolina dismissed their starting QB Steven Garcia and then lost Marcus Lattimore, a running back many believe to be the best in the land. South Carolina plays @ Tennessee & then at Arkansas, a team many believe to be the 3rd best in the SEC, and then host a very talented Florida. So the general wisdom suggests that the Gamecocks, who metaphorically will be in several fist fights with a hand tied behind their back, (due to the absence of Lattimore) will not be able to stay on their feet for the final five rounds.

So back to the “Party” and the belief that it is relevant. The Gators won their first four games, Florida Atlantic 41-3, UAB 39-0, & Tennessee 33-23 all in Gainesville and then put a 48-10 whipping on the Wildcats in Lexington. Florida’s season, which started with such promise, has hit rock bottom, a 38-10 pounding by Bama, a 41-11 stomping in Baton Rouge by LSU & at Auburn, a disappointing 17-6 loss. So Florida comes stumbling into this game with three straight losses and in search of an offensive identity. Meanwhile, Georgia is riding a five game high tsunami, carrying along with them 40,000 Georgia fanatics screaming “How ’bout them Dawgs” and taking dead aim @ a bunch of wounded beach boys in Jacksonville. So in the words of Dandy Don Meredith, “Turn out the lights… the Party’s over” seem to sum up this one come Saturday.

But wait – is that Lee Corso I hear babbling, “Not so fast my friend…. while Kirk Herbstreit and Chris Flower stare blankly as if gazing into the abyss. Two words make this a different Florida Team, John & Brantley! Florida’s QB, John Brantley, has returned and given the speed of Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, put them lights back on and do it fast. Brantley’s reappearance may give these undersized tachyons (Rainy & Demps) the direction and time they need to run circles around this oncoming wave and those dopes barking ” How ’bout then Dawgs”

This game should be highly entertaining. While Florida has won 18 of 21 and 4 of the last five, Georgia certainly has the talent to win this game. The Dawgs QB, Arron Murray, is considered by many to be the most talented player in the SEC at his position. Freshman running back Isaiah Crowell has performed up to his lofty projections averaging 4.8 YPC. Georgia is the Country’s 6th ranked team in Total Defense, allowing a mere 272.9 YPG and boasts the 4th best unit in stuffing 3rd down conversion attempts by holding opponents to an anemic 27.1 success rate. Florida is right behind on defending 3rd down, ranked 5th, holding opponents to a meager 27.4 ratio and are rated 16th in the country in Scoring Defense surrendering 18.9 PPG.

Georgia is a 2.5 to 3 point favorite and I believe they will win the game. Florida is lacking a banger at running back… Georgia has the speed to, not catch, but keep Rainy and Demps inside of them, in front of them and thus force them to play in the meathouse. Georgia 28 Florida 17

Posted in Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina |

SEC Games of the Week

This week in the SEC is the quiet before the storm. LSU @ Bama is a week away and much of the conference media and fan base will be somewhat cross-eyed this weekend, one eye on the field and the other looking down the road to this year’s “game of the century”. That aside, per usual, the SEC has exciting games this Saturday; Arkansas (6-1) @ Vanderbilt (4-3), Mississippi State (3-4) @ Kentucky (4-4), Ole Miss (2-5) @ Auburn (5-3), South Carolina (6-1) @ Tennessee (3-4), & Georgia (5-2) vs Florida (4-3) in Jacksonville.

On paper, Arkansas should have minimal issues with Vandy, even though the game is in Nashville and the Commodores are playing better this season. Under Coach Franklin’s leadership, the Commodores, other than the Alabama contest, a 34-0 second half drubbing by the Tide, have been been in every game, including a hard fought 33-28 loss to Georgia. QB Tyler Wilson (287.3 YPG), Greg Childs, Joe Adams, & Jarius Wright (95.6 YPG) bring too much scoring power (37.7 PPG) & speed to the Music City for Vanderbilt’s defense (21.6 PPG). The teams are ranked right next to one another in Scoring Defense, the Commodores are 33rd and the Razorbacks are 34th, giving up 21.7 PPG. The clear differences in this game are the fore mentioned Arkansas play-makers. Arkansas 35 Vandy 14

Danny Mullen (The M State Coach) better get it going soon or he will need to put up more billboards, like the one in Mississippi, that claims they “own the State” when it comes to recruiting. Perhaps he should consider putting them up in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, & Florida, as this group of players from Mississippi do not appear to be enough to get it done in the SEC. The Bulldogs need 6 wins to become bowl eligible and have 5 games left on their schedule. The”Dogs” need to win this weekend’s battle in Lexington against the “Cats” and next week’s game against a FCS opponent, UT Martin. Their 3 other games are with Alabama at home, Arkansas in Little Rock, and at home against Ole Miss… who really, really do not like Danny’s Billboard. I get the coach’s ” we’re going to dominate” mind set and all that jazz, but I am a little perplexed by Mississippi States’ administrative behavior.

Let me give you an example: a few years ago in Chicago, a radio station, WMVP, put this message on a billboard near Wrigley Field, “Major League Baseball 8.1 Miles South“ the exact mileage between Wrigley & Cellular Fields (Comiskey Park forever baby!!). While being a White Sox fan, I found this very funny and absolutely correct, yet, as one would expect, the White Sox management did not and quickly distanced themselves from the radio station advertisement. So where is the AD? Who is the voice of reason @ M State? As scary as this may sound, I guess it’s me! So … I have two thoughts for you Danny Boy; say an Ava for your mother and take that damn sign down before the Old Miss Game! Mississippi State 31 Kentucky 28

 

Posted in Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, SEC |

October 22nd Games of Interest

Big 12: Oklahoma State @ Missouri Upset alert! The Tigers and Cowboys were in the Big 12 North and South Divisions respectively in the old conference alignment (last year) and thus, did not play every year. As a result of conference / divisional scheduling, these teams did not meet a year ago, however, they did play in 08, an Oklahoma State victory, 28-23 and laced them up again, in 09, with similar results, Cowboys 33 Tigers 17.

The Tigers are 3-3, with wins over Miami of Ohio, 17-6, Western Illinois 69-0, & Iowa State, 52-17, all three of their wins have come at home. Away from Columbia’s Memorial Stadium, Missouri has struggled, losing at Arizona State, 37-30, At Norman, to Oklahoma, 38-28 & in Mini-Manhattan, to Kansas State, 24-17. All of the these contests were close and Missouri had chances to win each of these road contests. One could easily argue that Missouri could/should be 5-1, as the only game that did not go down to the final seconds was against Oklahoma. The Missouri/Oklahoma State tussle is in Columbia, a venue where the Tigers have not lost this season. Meanwhile, State is coming off two emotional games in the past three weeks, a 30-29 miracle comeback win over Texas A.M & a huge win (given their difficult history with the Longhorns in Austin) last week, against Texas, 38-26. Missouri 31 Oklahoma State 28

ACC: Georgia Tech @ Miami (Florida) These clubs have met in each of the past 5 years, with Georgia Tech holding a 3 to 2 edge in wins. In 06, Tech won 30-23, in 08, The Rambling Wreck survived, 17-14, and in 09, Tech hammered Miami, 41-23. The past two years have had a much different outcome – in 010, the Hurricanes handled Tech, 33-17 and last year, the Canes pounded the Yellow Jackets, 35-10.

Miami comes into the game @ 3-3, with a season opening road lost to conference foe Maryland, 32-24, an impressive win @ home against Ohio State, 24-6 and then a disappointing (at the time) loss at home to Kansas State 28-24 – the Wildcats are currently a surprising 6-0. Miami then beat an FCS team, Bethune-Cookman 45-14, lost a heart stopper to /at Virginia Tech, 38-35, and last week found a way in Chapel Hill against North Carolina, 30-24.

Georgia Tech is 5-1 on the season, their lone loss was last week in Charlottesville to Virginia, 24-21. The Wreck have beaten both North Carolina on the road, 35-28 and Maryland at home, 21-16. Therefore, these teams, Miami & Georgia Tech, have faced two common opponents this season; Tech is 2-0 against them while Miami has won one and lost one..

The Canes has been surprisingly disciplined in defending Georgia Tech’s triple option the past two seasons and Mr. Turnover, Jacory Harris, has not treated the ball as if it were radioactive the past couple of weeks, no interceptions in the last two games. That said, Miami ranks 94 of 120 against the run, giving up 187.0 yards per game and Georgia Tech is throwing the ball more effectively this year. The game is at Miami and the Hurricanes have beaten Tech two in a row… but they will not make it three in row! Paul Johnson, G-Tech’s Coach, will have his players total attention this week coming off their first loss of the season. Georgia Tech 35 Miami 24

Posted in ACC, Big 12, Georgia Tech, Miami FL, Missouri, Oklahoma State |

SEC Game of the Week

Auburn @ LSU: Auburn, the defending national champion, contrary to what is being said by the talking heads, are not dead yet, and in fact, still control their own fate in the SEC West. The Tigers are 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the SEC, with wins over (6-1) South Carolina, 16-13, and (4-3) Florida, 17-6, two of the better teams in the SEC East. No question but that those Auburn wins are a reflection of the relative strength differences between the SEC East and West. Further evidenced by Auburn’s sole conference loss @ (5-1) Arkansas, 38-14, a team believed by many to be the 3rd best team in the West behind Alabama & LSU. That aside, if the Tigers were to win out, since they play both LSU and Bama, that would, at a minimum, leave Auburn in a three way tie atop the SEC West. Ok … not likely, but possible people!

Auburn’s surprising season is on the line in Baton Rouge come Saturday and the challenge is the biggest they’ve faced this year. LSU is 7-0, they have scored 35 or more points in six of their seven wins and allowed 11 points or less in five of their seven wins. The Bengal Tigers closest game this year was 13 points, twice, a 40-27 win over Oregon and a 19-6 drubbing of Mississippi State. LSU is the #1 ranked team in this year’s first BCS poll that was released this past Sunday, and are the favorite of many to capture the National Championship this year.

These SEC West rivals have met in each of the past 5 years; in 06, Auburn won, 7-3, in 08, LSU held off Auburn 30-24, and in 09 LSU won again, 26-21. In the past two years the teams split, in 010, LSU won for the 3rd straight time, 31-10 and last year, Auburn and Cam Newton won a tight contest, 24-17, on the strength of a 4th quarter, 70 yard, TD scamper.

In Total defense, LSU is the 4th ranked team in the country, giving up 251.9 yards per game, while Auburn is rated as the 77th best defense in the nation, allowing 404.4 YPG. In Scoring Defense, The Bengal Tigers are surrendering a meager 11.7 points per game and currently are identified as the 7th best in the land. Auburn is being scored on to the tune of 25.9 PPG and ranked as the 61st best in keeping its opponents out of the scoring column. LSU has the 23rd most effective defense on 3rd down- 102 attempts, 33 conversions and a success rate of over 67% in getting stops. Meanwhile, Auburn has struggled mightily on 3rd down. They are the 103rd of the 120 FBS teams, their opponents have had 106 attempts and converted 51 of those attempts for a 48% success rate. Allowing a 3rd down conversion rate that is pushing the 50% mark is flirting with disaster and something that Auburn’s Defensive Coordinator, Ted Roof, has to fix by Saturday or they will lose & lose badly!

In reviewing Total Offense, neither of these teams are among the leaders nationally. LSU and Auburn are the 80th and 86th ranked team in the country. LSU is averaging 369.1 yards per game and Auburn is right behind at 360.9 YPG. In Scoring Offense, LSU is averaging 38.4 points per game, ranking them 20th, while Auburn is at 26.3 PPG and limping in to this contest as the 77th best in the land.

A couple of recent changes that we need to mention are Clint Moseley will make his first start at Quarterback for Auburn, replacing former starter Barrett Trotter, for Saturday’s game in Death Valley. Meanwhile, several media sources are reporting that LSU has suspended 3 players for the Auburn game; starting running back, Spencer Ware, a starting cornerback, Therold Simon, and Tyrann Mathieu, also a starting cornerback, whose outstanding play has resulted in his name being mentioned as a possible Heisman candidate. Apparently Coach Miles will address this breaking news tonight.

Given what we know right now and let’s say all these suspensions come to fruition ….. it will make little to no difference LSU 35 Auburn 10

Posted in Alabama, Auburn, LSU, SEC, South Carolina |