Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Big Ten Game of the Week

Wisconsin 6-0 @ Michigan State 6-1: These teams have played 4 of the past 5 years, including 4 straight meetings. In 07, Wisconsin outscored MSU, 37-34, 1n 08, the Spartans survived the Badgers, 25-24, in 09, State’s rally fell short, 38-30 defeat, & last year, The Spartans handed the Badgers their only regular season loss, 34-24. The thing to note here, is the home team has won each of the last four games and this week’s showdown is in East Lansing.

Wisconsin has beaten, @ home, (1-5) UNLV 51-17, (1-5) Oregon State, 35-0, an FCS team (63 scholarships vs FBS 85) South Dakota 59-10 & (5-1) Nebraska 48-17. While the Badgers have played two road games, only one of them has been on the other teams home field, (1-6) Indiana’s, a 59-7 beat down of the Hoosiers. The other road game was played @ Chicago’s Soldier Field, where the Badgers whipped (4-3) Northern Illinois, 49-7. Michigan State (Michigan’s little brother, who has gotten older recently) has also played and won, 4 games at home; FCS’ Youngstown State, Jimmy Tressel’s old team, 28-6, (0-6) Florida Atlantic, 44-0, (2-5) Central Michigan, 45-7, & (6-1) Michigan, 28-14. The Spartans have marched into two historic and revered college venues for their road games, the Horseshoe & the Blarney Stone, (actual Lia Fail, translated from Irish to English, means… Fatal Stone). So those dopes, who are traveling to Ireland to kiss the Blarney Stone, thinking they will receive “the gift of eloquence in speech” are really engaging in the Kiss of Death! In a football sense, it certainly was for the Spartans, as it was the site of their only defeat, a 31-13 popping by the (4-2) Irish. State more than made up for this misstep via their outstanding defensive performance at and against (4-3) OSU, a 10-7 gem.

Let’s take a peek at these two Big Ten heavy weights statistically. Michigan State enters the contest ranked 2nd in the country (Alabama’s 1st) in Total Defense, giving up 186.8 yards per game, while the Badgers are 7th in the nation, allowing 268 YPG. In scoring Defense, Wisconsin is 3rd best in the land, surrendering 9.7 point per game, with the Spartans right behind, ranked 4th and permitting 10.8 PPG. When you look at these teams ability to get off the field on 3rd down, the Spartans are stopping their opponents 73% of the time, while the Badgers are successful, to the tune of 68%, in getting their offense back on the turf. Finally, defense in the Red Zone, the Badgers have had 13 drives into this area of the field and allowed 9 scores, 6 TD’s (3 pass 3 rush) & 3 FG’s. Meanwhile, the Spartans have allowed 7 drives into the Red Zone and have permitted 5 scores, 4 TD’s (2 pass 2 rush) & 1 FG. Wisconsin has allowed more drives into the Red Zone, but has been more successful in getting stops or to limiting teams to FG’s.

Alright…Let’s go to the other side of the ball. In Total Offense, Wisconsin ranks 8th nationally, grinding out 523.2 yards per game, while the Spartans are 66th best in the country, averaging 387.2 YPG. In Scoring Offense, Wisconsin leads the nation, averaging, a whopping, 50.2 points per game, the Spartans are rated 65th best in the country, putting up 28.0 PPG. In 3rd down conversions, once again, Wisconsin leads the land, 71 attempts, 44 conversions, and a 60% success rate. State has struggled on 3rd down, 85 attempts and 32 conversions, keeping the offense on the field a mere 38 percent of the time, and resulting, in a national rank of 83rd. In considering Red Zone Offense, yet again, here comes Wisconsin, ranked 5th best in America. The Badgers have been in the Red Zone 33 times, resulting in 32 scores, and a remarkable 29 have been for TD’s. Michigan State is rated as the 91st best team in the land when it enters the Red Zone. The Spartans have been in this area of the field 28 times resulting in 21 scores, of which, 8 have been FG’s.

There can be no question, but that Wisconsin has enjoyed more statistical success on the offensive side of the ball. However, there is always that pesky question of… who have they played? In my mind, again, no question, State has played the superior schedule, ND & Ohio State on the road and, at the time, an undefeated Michigan, at home. The Badgers have played and pounded, one might add, a very good Nebraska @ home. So one could argue Michigan State’s offensive numbers are more related to the quality of their opposition, as opposed to an offensive deficiency, when compared to the Badgers.

Here are some thoughts to consider, as game time approaches! The Badgers are the best team the Spartans have faced, or may face, this year. Michigan State is undefeated at home and have beaten Wisconsin, the last two times the Badgers have traveled to Spartan Stadium. The size of the Badger Offense Line and Wisconsin’s time of position in the 1st half.

I like the Spartans, but they have no answer for Russell Wilson! Unlike Denard Robinson, Wilson is a duel threat and will not take the pounding that Robinson endured last week. Wisconsin offensive line and their backs will do the pounding… Wisconsin 35 Michigan State 17

Posted in Big Ten, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Wisconsin |

13 Undefeated and Counting Down

As we enter the halfway point of the 2011 season, there are still 13 teams without a loss. Three in the Big Ten; Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois and three in the Big 12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, & Oklahoma. The SEC has two, Alabama and LSU, the ACC has two, Georgia Tech & Clemson and the PAC 12 has one, Stanford. The Big East is the only AQ Conference that is unable to boast of an undefeated member. Two non AQ Conferences, The Mountain West and Conference USA have one each, Boise State and Houston.

In the Big Ten, Wisconsin plays Illinois on 11/19 but does not play Michigan this season. This does allow for the potential of two undefeated teams meeting in the first ever Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Not so with Illinois – in the event the Illini were to go unbeaten, they would have had to taken down Michigan and Wisconsin, who they play on back to back weekends in November. So based on scheduling, the Big Ten could end its regular season with two undefeated teams; Wisconsin and Michigan.

In the Big 12, Oklahoma plays Kansas State on October 29th and Oklahoma State, in the Bedlam Game, on December 3rd. Kansas State plays the Oklahoma schools on back to back weekends, OU on the 29th of October and Ok State on November 5th. So there can only be one undefeated team at the completion of the regular season, in the Big 12. Since the Conference has only ten teams for the 2011 campaign, they do not have a championship game this year.

LSU and Bama “lace em up” on the 5th of November, this will leave the SEC with one undefeated team, if things go according to Hoyle. While the SEC does have a title game, all of the teams representing the Eastern division have @ least one loss. The SEC has the potential to finish the regular season with one undefeated team, not two, like the Big Ten.

The ACC’s two undefeated teams, Clemson & Georgia Tech, are in the unique position of possibly playing each other twice before the Bowl Season kicks off. They meet at Georgia Tech on the 29th of October and could meet again, in the ACC’s Atlantic vs Coastal showdown on December 3rd. Please keep in mind, these teams have end of the season dates with SEC powers, Tech plays host to Georgia & Clemson visits South Carolina’s Williams-Brice Stadium. So a long way to go in the ACC to think about an undefeated representative, and while Clemson, looks to be the best team in the league, they clearly have the more difficult road to travel (@ Tech & South Carolina).

Stanford, the PAC 12 lone undefeated team, is suspected of preying on the weak. They have beaten only one team with a winning record, a 3-2 Duke, who plays Florida State later today. Please deposit this information early into your Bank Account, by day’s end, The Cardinal will not have beaten a single team with a winning record, as they should handle a 3-2 Washington State @ home today. Things will change in the coming weeks, as they face Washington, USC, Oregon, and Notre Dame. However, the schedule is favorable, as they play only Southern Cal on the road. While the PAC 12 has its inaugural Title Game on December 3rd, all teams in the South have at least one loss.

The Mountain West’s unblemished team, Boise State, has to worry, on paper, only about a down, yet dangerous, TCU team, in its run toward its second undefeated season in the past three years. Boise has lost only a bowl game, in 08, to TCU, 17-16 and an Overtime contest, last year, to Nevada, 34-31. Meanwhile, Houston, the C-USA undefeated team, has end of the season meetings with SMU at home and Tulsa (Mini Red River Rivalry) on the road to which they must bring their A game. If the focus in their other games, they simply are better than their opponents and should prevail, that is, if they come to play.

So what does this all mean? It means this! The Big Ten will have one undefeated team…. Wisconsin! Oklahoma does not survive “Bedlam”, and finishes the season with one loss to Oklahoma State, who also has a loss (play @ Texas, @ Missouri, and @ Texas Tech; plus, Kansas State at home, before they even get to Bedlam, one of these games will end their run) leaving all Big 12 teams with at least one loss! Now the fun part, Bama beats LSU, who also loses, @ home, to Arkansas. The Razorbacks finish the season with one loss. Alabama heads into the SEC Championship game, @ the Georgia Dome, without a defeat and leaves’ stunned, a shocking 7 point loss, to Mark Richt and the Georgia Bulldogs. No team has survived the rigors of the rugged SEC! Out West, Stanford losses to Oregon & ND and goes the way of the Buffalo. Meantime, Clemson beats Georgia Tech in the ACC Title Game, but had already loss to them @ Bobby Dodd Stadium on 10/29. Georgia Tech ends their season with two straight losses, first to Georgia and then in the ACC Championship game to Clemson. The ACC has no team without a blemish. The Big East was last heard from trying to attract the Beijing Tigers to their league, but only for American Football and Chinese Checkers. So in the end, the BCS Title Game has thee undefeated Teams to choose from: Wisconsin, Boise State, & Houston, and several one loss teams; Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, & Oklahoma State. Wisconsin (Houston is ignored by the BCS and Boise State goes to a BCS Bowl… but not THE BCS BOWL); it’s Wisconsin vs a one loss team out of the SEC…. Alabama! Just a thought People! Enjoy the Games.

Posted in AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, C-USA, Mountain West, PAC 12, SEC |

SEC Game of the Week

Florida @ Auburn: There typically are two or three games in this conference that are as good or better than the best game in other leagues. Given that, let me give you a run down on who is playing whom: 6-0 Alabama @ 2-3 Ole Miss, 6-0 LSU @ 3-2 Tennessee, 5-1 Arkansas is Idle, 3-3 Mississippi State hosts 5-1 South Carolina, 4-2 Georgia welcomes 3-2 Vanderbilt, and 2-4 Kentucky has a Bye Week.

I was tempted to have the LSU-Tennessee or South Carolina-Mississippi State tilts as the game of the week, but an injury (thumb on the throwing hand of Tennessee’s QB, Tyler Bray) ended that thought for the Tiger -Volunteer game. The Mississippi State-South Carolina game is huge for both teams, a loss here and the Bulldogs are headed back to irrelevance in the SEC; meanwhile, the Gamecocks need to win this game to maintain their advantage over Georgia in the East Division of the SEC. While both teams are 3-1 in SEC play, South Carolina beat Georgia, 45-42, in the second week of the season and as a result of that win, hold the tie breaker. However, a loss here by the Gamecocks and a Georgia win @ home against Vandy, would result in Georgia, not South Carolina, controlling its fate to the SEC Companionship Game @ Atlanta’s Georgia Dome.

All that said, the Florida @ Auburn meeting has to many story lines to not identify as the game of the week. Florida enters this contest having suffered two straight defeats, one to Bama, 38-10 @ home and another on the road, at Baton Rouge, to LSU, 41-10. One could argue, that the Gators just lined up against the two best defenses in all of college football this season, Alabama & LSU, and easily, (sorry Oklahoma) win that debate. Florida’s starting QB, John Brantley, was ruled out for the Auburn game on Monday and Coach Will Muschamp, has said that Jacoby Brissett will be penciled in to start the game. However, fellow freshman, Jeff Driskel, who won the backup position in fall Camp, and like Brantley, was injured in the Bama game (ankle), has healed enough to be in the mix to start. Auburn’s QB, Barrett Trotter, has also been in the news this week. Many put the poor offensive performance against Arkansas directly on Trotter’s play and are looking to make a move to get Kiehl Fraziel, a highly prized recruit, into the QB role full time. Coach Chizik, while recognizing QB concerns, was quick to point to 6 holding penalties and dropped passes as contributing elements that factored into the Tigers poor play on Saturday. Either way, Trotter is starting the game and Frazier will continue his role in the wildcat formations… for now!

These teams have met twice in the past five years, but have not played in the last three. In 06, Auburn beat Florida, 27-17 and in 07, Auburn was again the victor, this time, 20-17. The Tigers are 4-2 and the Gators, are also, 4-2, the game is being played @ Auburn and Florida is a 2 point favorite. Florida is averaging 30.3 PPG, while Auburn is @ 27.8, given their QB concerns and changes, this stat may not be relevant. Yet, their defensive scoring (points allowed) may be the key, the Gators are giving up 19.1 PPG (remember they just got tapped by Bama for 38 & LSU for 41) and Auburn is surrendering 29.1 PPG. In Total Defense, Florida is ranked 11th nationally, giving up 291 YPG, to Auburn’s 105th rank and their allowing a whopping 439.5 YPG. Based on what these teams have done and are doing defensively, I like Florida! Although we did not mention it here, Florida does have speed to burn, with Jeff Demps & Chris Rainey. Florida 35 Auburn 24

 

Posted in Auburn, Florida |

PAC 12 Game of the Week

Arizona State @ Oregon: Arizona State is 5-1 as they head for Eugene. They have won three in a row; beating USC 43-22 and Oregon State 35-20 at home and winning last week @ Salt Lake, a 35-14 thumping of Utah. Oregon has won 4 in a row. Their only road win in the four victories was at Arizona (who just fired their coach, Mike Stoops, this week) 56-31. The Ducks have played well at home, stomping Nevada 69-20 and a FCS team, Missouri State, 56-7. Last Thursday, they beat a 3-1 California, 43-15, however, the win may turn out to be a loss of sorts. Star running back, LaMichael James was injured and is out indefinitely, at least according to the ducks QB, Darren Thomas. The Quarterback probably aggravated his Coach, Chip Kelly, by talking about James’ status for the Saturday showdown. Kelly is tight lipped about injuries and will most likely have a heart to heart chat with Thomas about his “signal calling” as it relates to injured teammates.

Arizona State is on track to win the South Division of the PAC 12 and play the winner of the Oregon @ Stanford battle on November 12. Therefore, Saturday’s meeting could be a preview of what is to come, should Oregon beat Stanford, as the PAC 12 moves toward its inaugural companionship game.

These teams have met in each of the past five years, Oregon has won all five, including last years high scoring affair, 42-31, in Tempe. Oregon is a 14 to 15 1/2 point favorite and while playing without star running back LaMichael James, they should find a way to extend their winning ways against the Sun Devils. Oregon 45 Arizona State 28

Posted in Arizona State, Oregon, PAC 12 |

Big Ten Game of the Week

Michigan @ Michigan State: Their is no question that these two teams are undervalued and right ought to be, given their respective bowl performances from a year ago. MSU strutted into the Capital One Bowl with an 11-1 record and as Tri-champions of the Big Ten. Alabama annihilated the Spartans, 49-7, and it looked a ton worse then that score indicates, not men against boys, more like men against toddlers. Meanwhile, the other Michigan Team (the Wolves love to be referred to that way) came into the Gator Bowl, chest thumping about Denard’s speed and on a mission to save Rich Rod’s job. In the aftermath of a 52-14 beat down, Mississippi State demonstrated that Robinson was/would be, just another fast guy in the SEC and Rich Rob was seen after the game “Brown Bagging it” under the goalpost.

The good thing about sports, actually, the great thing about sports, is, you most often, get another shot. I think these teams can play, and while they are stealthy on the national radar, that is a good place for both teams right now.

These units have met five times in the past 5 years; in 06, the Wolves pounded State 31-13, in 07, Michigan outlasted the Spartans 28-24, and in 08, Sparty popped the Wolverines 35-21. The past two years, Michigan State has beaten their in state rivals, 26-20 in 09 and again in 2010, 34-17.

Michigan comes into the game @ 6-0, having held four of their six opponents to 10 0r less points. When Brady Hoke arrived, you can bet he told those mopes on defense, ” we are done beating Illinois 67-65″. These is no question that they are committed to and playing better defensively. MSU is 5-1, their sole loss is to Notre Dame, 31-13, a team Michigan beat 35-31. However, since that defeat, the Spartans have won two in a row, including a 10-7 win at Ohio State.

Michigan State is ranked 1st (that’s right… FIRST) in the nation in Total Defense, giving up an average of 173.4 YPG, while an improved Michigan is 39th best, surrendering 348.0 YPG. In Total offense, Michigan is running and throwing the ball up and down the field for a 14th ranked, 491 YPG. State is ranked 61st in the land and has moved the ball for an average of 398 yards in each of its 5 games. The Wolverines are scoring 10.8 points per game more than the Spartans, 38.8 to 28.0. Meanwhile, Michigan State is giving up a mere 10.2 points per game and Michigan is equally impressive, allowing a meager, 13.0. The teams are both ranked in the top ten in Scoring Defense, 3rd and 9th nationally.

I believe this game will come down to the following: 1) the Spartans defense and their success in keeping Denard Robinson in front of them, inside of them and then punishing him as he is forced to play in the meat house; and 2) Kirk Cousins ability to get the ball to BJ Cunningham & Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell’s ability to run the ball. This game is in the hands of the Spartans, they are at home and right now top to bottom, they are better than Michigan. Sparty 24 Wolves 21

Posted in Big Ten, Michigan, Michigan State |

Games of the Week 10-15-11

Big East: Not really a big game in the Big East this weekend; 4-1 South Florida takes on a 2-4 U-Conn @ Storrs CT and a 4-1 Cincinnati welcomes a 2-3 Louisville to Nippert Stadium. Two non-conference tilts, 3-3 Pitt hosts a 2-3 Utah @ Heinz Field & 4-1 Rutgers has invited a 3-2 Navy to their homecoming. Meanwhile, a 5-1 West Virginia and 4-2 Syracuse have bye weeks, these same teams will meet at the Carrier Dome next Saturday, Oct. 22nd. So, as you can see, 2 conference teams with 4-1 records face squads with losing slates, two teams are idle, and then 2 non-conference contests. So on the surface, not too much to get fired up about this week.

However, the Big East has produced 2 surprises this season, one is Cincinnati and the other is Rutgers. Cincinnati’s lone loss is to Tennessee, a 45-25 whipping in the second week of season. Since then, they have righted the ship and are currently on a 3 game winning streak; which includes a 27-0 blanking of defending MAC champ, Miami of Ohio and a 44-14 blasting of an ACC team, North Carolina State. I saw the Bearcat’s play NC State and they looked like a team that is quite capable of making some noise in the Big East this season. Their schedule, however, is not favorable, as they have to travel to South Florida, Pitt, Rutgers, & Syracuse. Rutgers is the other team who is turning some heads, their lone loss was @ North Carolina, 24-22 and are riding a wave of three straight wins. Two of the wins are against conference opponents, Syracuse 19-16 and Pittsburgh 34-10. Their schedule, unlike Cincy’s, sets up nicely for the Scarlet Knights, as they get West Virginia, South Florida, & Cincinnati all @ home.

Given that, let’s take a look at the Rutgers game this week against Navy. These teams have met three times in the past five years; in 06, Rutgers shutout the Midshipmen, 34-0, in 07, Rutgers won again, 41-24, and in their last meeting, 08, Navy won 23-21. The teams have not played the past two seasons.

Rutgers is a 4 point favorite, the Knights are averaging 32.2 PPG (points per game), while surrendering a meager 15.2; Navy counters, by allowing 30.6 PPG (inflated by a 63 to 35 beat down, by Southern Miss, last weekend) and scoring to the tune of 34.0. Per usual, Navy is among the leaders nationally running the ball, this year they rank 1st in the country @ 366.0 YPG (yards per game), while Rutgers is carrying the rock for 79.8 YPG (that rock must be heavy). Rutgers is currently ranked 115 of the 120 teams in the FBS running the ball. Looks like a no-brainer, the #1 ranked rushing team in the country vs the 115th, but in Lee Corso’s words, “not so fast my friend”, let’s take a peek at the pass. Rutgers is averaging 235.0 YPG passing the ball, while Navy is tossing the rock for 97.4 YPG (must be a heavy rock). Rutgers is ranked 57th in average yards passing per game in the country, while Navy QB is throwing curves….. ranked 118th of 120. Clearly, the field is leveling as both pass and rush are considered in predetermining a winner.

Having witnessed ND trying to defend Navy’s triple option the past couple of years, Chris Berman’s, rumblin, stumblin, bumblin comes to mind, as I watched those “Irish Dopes” miss tackles, miss assignments and bouncing off Charlie as they overran the pitch. I have at least 27 years of Purgatory to work off for inappropriate language. My afterlife aside, I do believe the key to beating Navy is getting off the field on 3rd down. While vacating the field on 3rd down is always a factor in winning, it is an absolute with the Midshipmen. So… how has Rutgers done on 3rd down defense? Rutgers allows third down conversions at the rate 32.8; meaning 67.2% of the time they are getting their offense back on the field. I believe this is why Rutgers wins this game! Rutgers 38-24

Posted in AAC, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Navy, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse |

Games of the Week

ACC: Virginia Tech (5-1) @ Wake Forest (4-1), that’s right, Wake Forest / Big Game all occurring in the same sentence! Wake has a chance to equal its best start since 2006, when the Demon Deacons won their first five games. They have won four in a row, including the head turning defeat of Florida State, 35-30 this past weekend. Big win for the Deacons! Their only loss this season is to Syracuse, 36-29, in OT. Wake Forest is in the Atlantic Division of the ACC and has already beaten 3 of the other 5 teams on that side of the Conference; Boston College 27-19, NC State 34-27, and Florida State. Va Tech is coming off a big win last Saturday, surviving a 38 to 35 battle with Miami. The Hokies only lost this season is a 23-3 defeat at the hands of Clemson. While Wake is playing great and their Head Coach Jim Grobe’s coaching skills may be the best kept secret in all of FBS… it will not be enough. Va Tech has not lost in Winston-Salem, WF’s home, since 1970, seven straight wins @ BB & T Field. The Deacons did beat Florida State, who clearly have as much or more talent then the Hokies. That said, the Seminoles were coming off 2 deflating losses, one to Oklahoma, 23-13 and the other to Clemson, 35-30 and seemed to lack focus in the Wake game. Va Tech will not, they will show up ready to play and should find a way. VA Tech 28 Wake 24

BIG 12: Oklahoma State (5-0) @ Texas (4-1) … Texas will be checking to make sure there is a”state” written after Oklahoma on their opponents jersey come Saturday, as in Oklahoma State and not just plain Oklahoma. Given the 55-17 whipping the Sooners put on the Horns, I think we all get Texas’ wanting to distance themselves from that Cotton Bowl debacle. I, for one, thought that Red River Rivalry game would be “a ton” closer, but 5 Texas turnovers later, not so much. This week is huge for Texas, their choice is simple, step up or get stepped on! No one in the Big 12 will take the pedal off the metal when it comes to sending a message to the Horns, although they most definitely would be unwilling to send that or any signal, via the Longhorn Network!

Texas has beaten Rice 34-9, BYU 17-16, UCLA 49-20, and Iowa State 37-14, before getting popped in the mouth by Sooners last weekend. Oklahoma State is off to a great start; beating Louisiana 61-34, Arizona 37-14, Tulsa 59-33, Texas A&M 30-29 and Kansas, last weekend, 70-28. The Cowboys are ranked 2nd in the country in Total Offense, averaging 577.4 Yards Per Game and 6.7 Yards Per Play. Texas counters with 388.4 Yards Per Game and 5.5 Yards Per Play, ranking their effort @ 69th best in the nation. On Defense, the Cowboys are giving up 438.0 YPG (Yards Per Game) and 5.7 YPP (Yards Per Play). Oklahoma State is currently ranked 103rd of 120 in scoring defense. Texas comes into the game with 24th best defense in the land, giving up 321.8 YPG and 4.7 YPP. Oklahoma State leads the nation in Offensive Scoring, 51.4 Points Per Game, while Texas is lighting up the score board to the tune of 30.8 PPG. The Longhorns are giving up 22.8 PPG and ranked 47th in the country, meanwhile, Oklahoma State is ranked 71st in the land and giving up 27.6 PPG. The Game is at Texas, the Horns are riled up, the fans are riled up too… It won’t matter, OSU’S QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon are going to ringtaw the Longhorn Nation right out of their carrel. OSU 38 Texas 28.

Posted in Big 12, Oklahoma State, Texas |

Oklahoma vs Texas @ Cotton Bowl

The Red River Rivalry kicks off in 30 minutes. Oklahoma comes into the game @ 4-0 and ranked 1st in the nation in the Coaches poll. Texas is also undefeated and ranked 12th in the country. Oklahoma beat Tulsa @ home 47-14, survived Florida State 23-13 in Tallahassee, stopped Missouri in Norman, 38-28, and demolished Ball State last week @ home, 62-6. Texas opened its season at home against Rice with 34-9 victory, outlasted BYU 17-16 in Austin, hammered UCLA in the Rose Bowl, 49-20 and ran over Iowa State 37-14 in Ames.

In the past five years, Texas holds a 3 to 2 advantage, the Longhorns won in 2006, 28-10, again in 2008, 45-35, and then in 2009, 16-13. While, Oklahoma prevailed in 2007, 28-21 and last year, they held on, 28-20. Oklahoma is a 11 to 11 1/2 point favorite, averaging 555.0 YPG, 379.8 through the air and 177.0 on the ground. The sooners are averaging 42.5 point per game and giving up 15.25. The Longhorns are moving the ball to the tune 420.8 YPG, 223.0 passing, 206.0 via the rush, and putting points on the board at a 34.3 clip while surrendering a mere 14.75 PPG.

Texas is running the ball much better this year and playing better defense… it’s not enough Oklahoma 31 Texas 27.

Posted in Big 12, Texas |

SEC In Action 10/8/11

Florida @ LSU These teams come into the contest @ 4-1 and 5-0 respectively. Florida has beaten Florida Atlantic 41-3, UAB 39-0, Tennessee 33-23 all @ home. The Gators traveled to Lexington, KY on Sept. 24th and swamped the Wildcats, 48-10. Last week, the Gators lost their showdown in the Swamp to Alabama, 38-10. They now head west to Baton Rouge, to take on the mighty LSU Tigers. In thinking about this game; from the frying pan to the fire comes to mind. LSU has pounded Oregon 40-27 (@ Arlington, TX), annihilated Northwestern State 49-3 @ home, handled Mississippi State 19-6 in Starkville, creamed West Virginia, 47-21 in Morgantown, and popped Kentucky, last week, 35-7 in Lexington.

The Gators and Tigers have met 5 times in the past five years: in 06, Florida won 23-10, in 07, LSU prevailed 28-24, in 08, Florida blitzed LSU 51-21, in 09. Florida survived 13-3, and last year, LSU outscored Florida 33-29.

Florida’s QB, John Brantley, is out with a high ankle sprain. Possible replacements are Jeff Driskel or Jacoby Brissett, both true freshman and/or Red Shirt Freshman, Tyler Murphy has also been listed as a possible starter. Unlike the NFL, colleges do not have to describe injuries in detail, nor do they have to tell the public who starts at QB or any other position. So… you will know for sure @ game time! Florida is ranked 7th nationally, in total defense, while LSU is right behind @ 9. Please keep in mind, that LSU has played a much better schedule and done so on the road! The Gators have great speed on both sides of the ball and their defense will perform better against LSU, then it did a week ago against Bama. However… LSU 24 Florida 10

Posted in Alabama, Florida, LSU, SEC |

Boise State @ Fresno State

The only thing these two old WAC rivals have in common these days is the use of State to describe their City Universities. Boise State has moved from the WAC to the Mountain West and Fresno State, while still in the WAC… appears to be on the move. Do not be surprised if the Big 12 offers an invitation of membership to Boise State, and though Fresno State appears headed to the Mountain West, don’t bet the house on that move. It seemed just yesterday, wait, it was yesterday, that TCU, a current member of the Mountain West Conference, was going to the Big East, a lock, a done deal… oops… a Big 12 offer and go figure, TCU stays in Texas. Stay alert… this is an active landscape.

The Broncos and Bulldogs have met 5 times in the past five years; in 06, Boise won 45-21, in 07, more of the same, Broncos 34-Bulldogs 21, and in 08, on the Blue Turf, Boise pounded Fresno 61-10. In 2010, Fresno put a 34 point spot on Boise, not enough, as Boise put a 51 point spot on the Bulldogs. Last year, staying with the 51 point theme (a 51 point win in 08 and scoring 51 in 09) the Broncos shut out the other “state”, and, yap, scored 51! I wonder if the old Chicago Bear Linebacker, Dick Butkus (#51), has been involved in this 51 business.

In the 90’s, the Bulldogs were the anybody, anywhere, anytime west coast mirror image of Bobby Bowden’s Florida State. Pat Hill’s team would take on any and all comers and built a national reputation on this mantra. Then in 2001, Boise State joined the WAC and things began to change. Fresno State’s last double digit win total was in 2001, an 11-3 outing, Boise State has had one season, since the end of 2001, where they failed to win in double digits (05 they were 9-4), otherwise, 10 or more wins. A remarkable run and one that shows little sign of slowing down based on their start in 2011.

Fresno entered this game @ 2-3, they opened the 2011 campaign with losses to Cal 36-21 & Nebraska 42-29. The Cal game was played at Candlestick Park and the Nebraska contest was in Lincoln (still anybody, anywhere, anytime). The Bulldogs then beat North Dakota 27-22 @ home and Idaho 48-24 on the road. Last week they hosted Mississippi and fell 38-28. Boise rolls into Bulldog Stadium (41,031) with a 4-0 slate. Having dominated Georgia in Atlanta 35-21, Toledo on the road 41-15, & popping Tulsa 41-21 and Nevada 30-10 at home.

Boise is a 21 point favorite and sorry to say… the 90’s are gone… Boise 51 Fresno 21

 

Posted in Boise State, Fresno State, Mountain West, SWAC |