Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

PAC 12 Cal @ Oregon

Thursday night action in the PAC 12 is becoming a common occurrence this season. Cal plays Oregon tonight and then takes on USC @ home on Thursday, Oct. 13th. Arizona State played UC Davis in their opener on Sept. 1 and UCLA pays a visit to Arizona on Oct. 20th, both Thursday games. Arizona and Utah played Oklahoma State and Montana State respectively, you’ve got it… on Thursday! I, for one, really enjoy Thursday night games, as they usher in the end of the work week and signal another exciting weekend of college football. So let’s get it rolling!

Cal and Oregon have played in each of the past five years; the Golden Bears won in 06, 45-24, again in 07, 31-24, and in 08, upset the then 23rd ranked Ducks, 26-16. Apparently, the Bears hit a nerve in 08 as the Ducks pounded Cal 42-3 in 2009. Last year Cal slowed the game down to the point that Oregon complained that they were faking injuries. The Bears gave the then one #1 ranked Ducks all they could handle before falling 15-13.

Oregon rolls into the contest @ 3-1, an opening loss to LSU, 40-27, at Cowboy Stadium, in Arlington, Texas. They followed up that loss with three straight wins; A 69-20 pounding of Nevada, trounced an FCS opponent, Missouri state, 56-7, and humbled Arizona 56-31. The Ducks had a bye last week and thus two weeks to prepare for Cal. California heads north to Eugene with an identical 3-1 record. They opened their season at Candlestick Park, with a win over Fresno State 36-21, beat Colorado on the road 39-33 and pounded an FCS team, Presbyterian, 63-12. They dropped their first game of the year, on Sept. 24th @ Washington, 31-23 and like the Ducks, were idle last week and have had ample time to heal and prepare.

Oregon is giving 24.1/2 points and should be able to move the ball on the ground against Cal’s defense. The last three games, the Ducks have rushed for 275, 415 & 416 yards. While the Bears have been good in their run defense, giving up a respectable 117 yards to Washington, they simply have not faced anyone near the ability of LaMichael James. Throw QB Darren Thomas into the mix, and couple that with the fact there is no love lost between the teams… Ducks roll 48-17.

Posted in Arizona, California, Oregon, PAC 12, UCLA, Utah |

ACC

Clemson has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, not that they beat Auburn 38-24 and Florida State 35-30 @ home, or even Virginia Tech on the road 23-3; the real shocker is that they are actually achieving to their ability levels. This is a program that is often described as an ACC Team with SEC talent, nice to see them living up to that perception. I am really interested to see how they perform these next three weeks leading up to their battle @ Georgia Tech. They play Boston College (1-4) this week @ home, then travel to Maryland (2-2), before returning home to face an athletic North Carolina (4-1). These games are and should be winnable. My question is, given their history, can Clemson, players and coaches, maintain their focus in an “oh Yeah” game this week against BC? The fact is, the BC players and coaches do not see this contest as an “oh Yeah” game, they see it as both an opportunity and a challenge to turn their season around! While it is a fact that the Maryland and North Carolina games will not have the same national attention as the Auburn, Florida State & Virginia Tech, they better get the Tigers’! In the end, it is about you Clemson and that nagging discrepancy between your ability and your achievement! Like I said… it will be interesting!

Posted in ACC, Clemson |

Alabama @ Florida

Best game in the SEC. Florida is 4-0, having beat the following teams @ home: Florida Atlantic 41-3, UAB 39-0, Tennessee 33-23, & taking care of Kentucky on the road 48-10. The Beast (Alabama) is also 4-0, they have taken their show on the road once, to Happy Valley, where they handled a good Penn State team 27-11 (not as close as the score indicates), in front of 106,000 plus Nittany Lion fans, who really do not like the Tide and were vocal about their feelings… it didn’t matter. Their other three wins were @ home: Kent State 48-7, North Texas 27-11, and last week Arkansas 38-14.

The Crimson Tide and the Gators have played in all of the past three years, with Florida winning in the 2008 SEC Championship Game, 31-20; Bama won the next meeting, in the 2009 SEC Championship, 32-13, and last year the Tide rolled 31-6 in Tuscaloosa.

This year’s game is in Gainesville, and Florida looks different. Urban Meyer is gone (Former Head Coach) and Will Muschamp (New Head Coach & former Texas Head Coach in waiting) has arrived and he brought Charlie Weis (Former Notre Dame Head Coach & New England Patriot Offensive Coordinator) along with him. Alabama looks like they did in 09, hungry and nasty!

This should be the most entertaining game of the day. Look for Florida to play well @ home, but the Tide finds a way! Alabama 24 Florida 14!

Posted in Alabama, Florida, SEC |

Notre Dame @ Purdue

The Irish enter this contest 2-2. Losing their opener to South Florida 23-20 and then playing in front of 114,00 plus, the largest crowd in Michigan history, lost again, 35-31. They are now riding a 2 game win streak, having beat Michigan State 31-13 and Pitt 15-12 last week. The Boilermakers are 2-1 and coming off a bye week. Purdue beat Middle Tennessee 27-24 and an FCS team, SE Missouri 69-0. Their lone loss was to Rice 24-22, the Boilers missed a field goal as time expired that would have given them the win.

These teams have met 5 times in the past five years, Purdue has won once, in 07, 33-19. Last year’s game was the season opener for both teams with ND winning the game 23-12. Notre Dame is a 12 point favorite and while the game is at Purdue, the Irish should put a plus 30 on the board and hold the Boilers to 10 or less. ND 35 Purdue 10

Posted in Big Ten, Notre Dame, Purdue |

Nebraska @ Wisconsin

There is no question the best game in the Big Ten is in Madison, where a 4-0 Nebraska comes a calling on a 4-0 Wisconsin. This game has several great story lines: Nebraska first ever Big Ten throw down, BCS implications, Heisman Trophy Candidates, and perhaps a sneak peek @ the Big Ten Divisional Championship Game in Indianapolis on December 4th. The Game Day Crew will be in town to hype all these stories and more as this meeting is a night time affair. The Badgers and Cornhuskers have played 5 times in their long histories, with “the people of the corn” winning 3, the last meeting was in 1974.

Nebraska invades Mad Town with home wins over an FCS team, Chattanooga 40-7, Fresno State 41-29, Washington 51-38, & a lone road victory over Wyoming 38-14. The Badgers welcome them to Camp Randall, where they have pounded UNLV 51-17, Oregon State 35-0, & South Dakota 59-10 . Wisconsin has strayed from home once thus far this season, to Chicago’s Soldiers Field, where they routed Northern Illinois 49-7.

Wisconsin is averaging 532.3 YPG (yards per game), best in the Big Ten and ranked 8th nationally, while Nebraska is moving the ball to the tune of 439.0 YPG, rating 4th in the Conference and the 36th best offense in the country. On Defense, Wisconsin boasts the 2nd best unit in the Conference and 7th rated nationally, giving up 246.5 of total offense, while Nebraska is surrendering 349.8 yards in total offense, 7th in the Big Ten & 52nd best in the land. The Badgers lead the Conference and are ranked 3rd in the nation in scoring defense, giving up 8.5 PPG (points per game) while the Cornhuskers are allowing 22.0, ninth best in the league and 46th in the country. The two teams rank 1 & 2 in scoring offense in the Big Ten, the Badgers 48.5 and the Huskers 42.8.

The QB match-up is one of the most intriguing factors as game time approaches. Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson, a transfer from North Carolina State, is having a phenomenal year. He is ranked 2nd in the country and first in the Big Ten in Passing Efficiency. Wilson is averaging an incredible 12.5 YPA (yards per attempt) and an equally impressive 16.5 YPC (yards per completion). This means that every time he throws the ball, not completes it, just attempts a pass, it is the equivalent of a Badger 1st down. Taylor Martinez, Nebraska’s QB, is leading his team in rushing, 421 yards in his first 4 games, 105 YPG and 6.68 YPC. These numbers make him the second leading rusher in the Big Ten. Martinez has scored 42 points and is currently tied for 3rd in the conference, with teammate Rex Burkhead.

Nebraska has the number 2 and 3 rushers in the Big Ten, Taylor Martinez 6.68 YPC & Rex Burkhead 6.67 YPC, while the Badgers offer Monte Ball 5.71 YPC and James White 6.73 YPC ranked 5th and 8th respectively in the Conference. The Huskers leading receiver is Jamal Turner, 8 catches, for a 139 total yards, zero TD’s, 17.4 YPC and 34.8 YPG. The Badgers counter with Nick Toon, 21 catches, for 353 total yards, 5 TD’s, 14.3 YPC and 88.3 YPG.

On defense, LB (linebacker) Lavonte David is Nebraska’s leading tackler, with 9.5 per game, while the Badgers are led by LB Chris Borland’s 8.75 TPG. A few other players to watch on defense are Nebraska’s D tackle, Jared Crick, one of the best in the country and Linebacker Daimion Stafford who is averaging 7.3 TPG. While another Wisconsin LB, Mike Taylor, is averaging 7.5 TPG.

Emotions will be sky high come Saturday Night, the team that manages them best will have an edge. That said, Wisconsin’s run or pass offense is to balanced for the Husker defense. Wisconsin 35 Nebraska 21

Posted in Nebraska, Wisconsin |

Michigan State @ Ohio State

If one knew little to nothing about these two teams and looked at this game on what the squads have done statistically this season, State is the clear winner- State as in Michigan State! The Spartans roll in offensively averaging 417.3 YPG (yards per game), 7th in the Big Ten & 53rd nationally, while the Buckeyes limp in @ 340.8 YPG, ranked 12th in the Conference (Last) & 91st in the country. On Defense, MSU is giving up 172.3 YPG, best in the Big Ten and 1st in all of the FBS’ 120 teams – that’s right, 1st in America. Meanwhile, OSU comes in giving up 276.3 YPG, ranking them 4th in Conference & 16th nationally.

Both teams are 3-1, OSU has beaten a 1-3 Akron 42-0, a 2-2 Toledo 27-22, and a 1-3 Colorado 37-17, and lost to 1-2 Miami 24-6. MSU has taken care of FCS (Football Championship Subdivision /up to 63 Scholarships for FCS to 85 for FBS) 2-2 Youngstown State 28-6, a 0-3 Florida Atlantic 44-0, a 1-3 Central Michigan 45-7 and lost to a 2-2 Notre Dame 31-13. The Buckeyes opponents combined record is 5-10 and the Spartans foes roll in at an equally unimpressive 5-10 slate.

In the past 5 years, the Bucks and Sparty have met 3 times with Ohio State winning all three contests; in 06: OSU 38-7, in 07: OSU 24-17, & in 08: OSU 45-7 (MSU & OSU have not played the past two years).

This year MSU has the best pocket passer in the league @ QB in the highly thought of Kurt Cousins, ranked 1st in the Big Ten in number of completed passes at 81; the Bucks counter with a very talented, yet inexperienced Freshmen, Braxton Miller, ranked 14th in the Conference with 15 completions (OSU & PSU have 2 ranked, explaining a 14th ranked QB in a league that has12 teams). The Spartans boast one of the nations best receivers in BJ Cunningham, ranked 1st in the Big Ten in several receiving categories and 14th nationally in receiving yards per game & receptions per game; while OSU best receiver, DeVier Posey, is suspended till next weeks tilt vs Nebraska. At running back, Sparty features a double headed monster in Le’Veon Bell 5.71 YPC (yards per carry) and Edwin Baker 4.32 YPC; OSU’s Carlos Hyde is doing a good job @ 4.61 YPC, yet,Ohio’s best runner, Boom Herron, remains suspended till next week’s trip to Lincoln.

Michigan State has the leading defense in the country… enough said… it is time for THE SPARTANS to win @ Thermoppaley or even at the Horseshoe. Also, please watch one of my favorite players: #5 Johnny Adams, a Defensive Back for MSU, who has never stopped talking since his birth. If Bell & Baker run anywhere near where Johnny runs his mouth, MSU will annihilate OSU. That aside… MSU 28 OSU 17

Posted in Michigan State, Ohio State |

Penn State @ Indiana

People say we need this or we need that to turn the economy around, I say what this country needs to get back on track is a winning Indiana Football Program. Ok…. that may be somewhat of a stretch, yet think of the hope it would create, the “yes we can” mentality it would foster throughout the land, and hey, politicians may even grow the backbone to say NO and actually mean it! All because Indiana Football gets it rolling baby! That is a lot to put on Kevin Wilson, the Hoosiers 5th Head Coach since 2001, but I for one am quietly pulling for this guy. Here is a man that leaves the Offensive Coordinator Position at Oklahoma to take on one of the biggest challenges in college football. The following is what has happened thus far; A 27-20 defeat by Ball State @ the Hoosier Dome in Indianapolis, a close loss at home to Virginia 34-31 and a slow start at North Texas that resulted in 24-21 set back. Indiana with a different view of themselves, could easily be 4-0. Kevin Wilson’s team is averaging 413.8 yards per game and scoring 27.5 points per contest. In their game this week against Penn State they need to cut down on penalties, 39 in four games (20 against South Carolina State for 176 yards) and they need to run the ball better, currently averaging 139.5 ypg they rank 11th in the Big Ten. The good news is that the 12th ranked rushing team in the conference is Penn State @ 137.0 ypg. However, the Lions did play Alabama, 107 rushing yards against the beast, and do keep in mind, the Packers may have a hard time running the ball on Bama. The Nittany Lions are a 16.5 point favorite, while I am pulling for Indiana and Wilson to play well, Joe Pa and the lions move on to 4-1!

Posted in Big Ten, Indiana, Penn State |

Northwestern @ Illinois

The Illini enter this contest unbeaten, their first 4-0 start since 1951, and an impressive 17-14 win over Arizona State, who took it to USC this past weekend 43-22. Meanwhile, Northwestern is 2-1, coming off a disappointing 21-14 loss to Army. As expected, the Fighting Illini are a 7 point favorite and look like a sure thing come Saturday. However, in the words of Lee Corso “Not so fast my friend”, the long awaited return of Danny Persa is upon us, Persa has been cleared to play this weekend and with him on the field the Wildcats are, simply put, a much better team. In their last five meeting, Northwestern has won three, they have split the last four, with Illinois winning the “One Way Bowl” @ Wrigley Field last year 48-27. Illinois and Northwesters were the only teams from the same state that the Big Ten put in different divisions, Northwestern in the Legends and the Illini in the Leaders. Purdue and Indiana are together in the Leaders and Michigan and Michigan State are in the Legends. So these long time rivals meet for the first time representing their respective division: Persa needs time and Illinois survives at home.

Posted in Big Ten, Illinois, Northwestern |

Big Ten Games for the Week 0f September 29 / October 1

For the first time in its long and storied history the Big Ten begins its conference season with two divisions: Leaders and Legends. To keep then straight, I suggest you use the following acronym, by saying the letters, “I M N” (Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska & Northwestern). You still have to remember I for Iowa, but all teams that begin with M or N are covered by employing this mnemonic. Hope this helps you with which teams are in the Legends; by default, all the other teams fall into the Leaders.

Big Ten Contests: A Legends divisional tilt that has Michigan hosting Minnesota and a Leaders contest that pits Penn State at home against Indiana. While in Legends vs Leaders, Northwestern heads to Illinois and Ohio State welcomes Michigan State. Finally, in non-conference action, Purdue hosts Notre Dame while Iowa has a bye this week. I will have a breakdown of each of these games and other key conferences match-ups beginning tonight.

Posted in Iowa, Minnesota |

Wisconsin vs Northern Illinois @ Soldier Field

Last Saturday, I was in Chicago for the Wisconsin NIU Game and who do I see but a group of Arizona State fans wondering down Jackson street — probably headed to Union Station / AMTRAK and on to Champaign. I tried to warn then about the Illini’s QB Nate Scheelhaase and their running game led by Jason Ford & Josh Ferguson, a youngster from my home town of Joliet. They Laughed! Oh well… never a prophet in your own land and all that jazz! A few hours later and after a 17-14 loss to Illinois, they may have been more impressed by the Illini defense. Either way…I did my civic duty while in the city! I’m sure the boys from the desert had plenty to drink on the way home!!

Now we begin as USC comes to Tempe this week & ASU season hinges on a win today. The Sun Devils play back to back games against Utah (17-14 losers to SC in the coliseum) & Oregon on October 8 & 15… both games are road trips for State, ASU’s QB Brock Osweiler is 6′ 8″ and throws lasers and runs like is 5′ 8″. This guy is flat out fun to watch. He has completed 66% of his passes for 871 yards and has thrown 6 TD’s to 3 INT. His leading target is 5′ 10″ WR Aaron Pflugrad, who has 18 receptions for 305 yards and 4 TD’s. Meanwhile Southern Cal has a terrific QB of their own, Matt Barkley, who has completed 69% of his passes for 891 yards and has fired 9 TD’s to 1 pick! Brakley’s WR of choice is 6’1″ Robert Woods, 33 receptions for 361 yards and 4 TD’s. Neither team has been able to run the ball effectively, this is especially surprising of USC given their history of great tailbacks.

On Defense; ASU’s LB Vontaze Burfict is one of the most aggressive players in the land. His motor is always running and he is currently ranked 3rd nationally in Sacks. USC has held all 3 opponents to 17 or less points and each one of these teams have been from a FBS AQ Conference. Sorry Brock… SC finds away!!

Posted in Arizona State, MAC, Northern Illinois, PAC 12 |