Past Results & Future Predictions based on Recruiting Rankings

In the last blog we ranked the 5 Power Five Conference and added ND & BYU into the mix. This included 66 of the 130 teams competing in the FBS in 2018. In this article, we will not be looking at player development, coaching, schedule, and other variables … rather just how the teams have recruited over the past 4 years as a predictor to where they will finish in their respective divisions & conference championship. To get reality back into the mix, we will first look at where they finished last in 2017 and compare that to what the recruiting numbers are saying about this year’s standings. We will start with the SEC West Division

2017 SEC West Division Standing / What should happen based on recruiting numbers in 2018

2017 Standings / 2018 Predictions

1. Auburn ……. 1. Alabama
2. Alabama …  2 LSU
3. LSU ………… 3 Auburn
4. Tx A&M ….  4 Tx A&M
5. Miss St…….. 5 Ole Miss
6. Ole Miss ….. 6 Miss St.
7. Arkansas …. 7 Arkansas

A few points of interest

• In 2017, Auburn and Alabama both finished 7-1 in Conference play … Since Auburn won the head to head meeting (@ Auburn, 27-14) they were awarded the division crown.
• With Auburn being the 3rd best recruiting program in the SEC West, one could conclude that the Tigers overachieved in winning the Division.
• LSU is the 6th best recruiting program in the nation and second best in the SEC West (3rd best overall in the SEC, behind Bama & Georgia).
• Two factors to keep in mind, Re: LSU’s Recruiting: 1) they are only .75 better than Auburn (8.50 to 9.25) and 2) they need better performance under center … QB play has been and remains a concern for the LSU Tigers.
• A&M finished 4th in the West, right where the recruiting data suggested they would finish.
• While the Mississippi schools simply moved one spot from where the recruiting #’s predicted they would finish, it should be noted, the Rebels lost their coach, who was fired just as the season was about to begin … clearly a disruption.
• Arkansas & A&M finished exactly where the numbers had them placed
• Finally, it should be understood, that Arkansas is the 30th best recruiting program in the country (the Razorbacks recruit better than 100 teams in the FBS), yet dead last in the powerful SEC West Division.

2017 SEC East Division Standing / What should happen based on recruiting numbers in 201800

2017 Standings   /   2018 Predictions

1. Georgia ……………1. Georgia
2. South Carolina …2 Tennessee
3. Kentucky …………3 Flordia
4. Missouri …………. 4 South Carolina
5. Florida ……………. 5 Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt ………. 6 Missouri
7. Tennessee ………. 7 Vanderbilt

A few points of interest

• Georgia is on the ‘movin on up” recruiting train” since Kirby Smart arrived in Athens, the Dawgs have had the #3 (2017) and #1 (2018) recruiting classes.
• The best way to describe Tennessee these days is … They’re a Mess! Butch Joses recruited well, yet led the team poorly both on and off the field. Jones was fired and AD, John Currie was also dismissed, after leading what can best be thought of as a “bazaar” search for a coach to replace Jones.
• Enter Phillip Fulmer as the new AD and new HC, Jeremy Pruitt (Alabama DC the past couple of years) to get the Volunteers back to where their talent level indicates they should be performing!
• Tennessee has the 2nd best roster, not starters, but roster, in the SEC East!
• Florida fired Jim McElwain (now at Michigan) and hired Danny Mullen (former Mississippi State coach) Florida is the 3rd best recruiting program in the East and should be able to finish there with with their current roster and 19 starters returning.
• South Carolina overachieved last year, they have the 4th best roster, yet finished 2nd in the East and gave the B-10 their only blemish in the Bowl Season, beating Michigan, 26-19, in the Outback Bowl.
• Kentucky is the 35 best recruiting program in college football and the 5th best in the SEC East. Their 3rd place place finish a year ago is related to other factors not being considered here … by the recruiting numbers, the Wildcats should be 5th in the SEC East.
• Vanderbilt is the weakest recruiting team in the SEC, that said, it should be mentioned, they are far and away the best Academic University in the SEC (Florida is very good … but not a Vandy) and therefore more difficult for the Commodores to get academically challenged students into the University. That said, the fact that they have beaten Tennessee the past 2 years (45-34 & 42-24) is outside the recruiting logic being used here, to predict future standings, by quite a bit … and then some!
• Finally Missouri, another overachiever, finished 4th in the East, while the recruiting numbers say they have the 6th best roster in the SEC East Division.

So by the Numbers

In the West its Alabama and out of the East it will be Georgia

SEC Champion will again …  by the recruiting numbers … will be Alabama!