Sully's Big Blog! Commentary on College Football, Weekly Games, And Strange Statistics!

Sam Houston State vs South Dakota State

South Dakota State, out of the Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC), 8-1 vs Sam Houston, from the Southland Conference (SLC), 9-0 meet today in Frisco, Texas’, Toyota Stadium, @ 1:00 p.m. CST!

The outcome will determine the champion of the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision) in what has been the most challenging college football season since its being played during WWII!

South Dakota State enters the game as a 4 point favorite (opening line) which has now risen to 5.5 to 6.5 as we approach kick-off! The web-address listed below will take you to the Vegas Hot$heets for more information.

I have also provided a game simulation (head to head comparison) from Sully’s College Football Page. This is an analysis of what the team’s specific numbers, when contrasted with one another, suggest will happen in today’s championship battle!

The Simulator looks at 8 categories, { 1) Total Yards; 2) Rushing Yards; 3) Passing Yards; 4) Scoring, For & Allowed; 5) Turnovers, Lost & Obtained; 6) 3rd Down, Conversions / Stops; 7) Red Zone, All Scores, For & Against; 8) Red Zone Scores, TD’s only}

The process the site uses is designed to create competitive interaction between the teams numbers. For instances, in the Total Yards Category, SDS offense averaged 409 yards per game, while SHS defense has allowed 359 YPG. The Simulator adds the two numbers together, gets a total (768), then divides by 2 to get a mean. The Game Simulator has deduced the SDS offense will run & pass for 384 Total Yards in today game.

It then reverses the process, the Simulator will now take SHS Offense (456), add it to SDS Defense (281), establish a total (737), & then divide by 2 to determine a mean, SHS will run & pass for 368.5 Total Yards in today’s championship game.

The Game Simulator has determined that SDS will outgain (remember, by the numbers) SHS, 384 yards to 368.5 yards! As a result, South Dakota State is awarded the point in the Total Yards Category!

The same format is used in all 8 categories and the higher number gets the point, except, for obvious reasons, in the the Turnover Category, where the lower number is awarded the point!

While the Boys & Gals from Vegas like South Dakota State to win the game, the site boldly disagrees. In the 8 categories assessed, the SCFP’s Game Simulator ‘thinks’ SHS will outperform SDS in 5 of the 8 categories and win the game 27-25!

The web-address will take you to the Game Simulator. When you arrive, enter the respective teams (South Dakota State & Sam Houston), it does not matter which drop Box you enter a specific team in, either is fine! Make sure you use 2021 in the year box for both teams. While this is the 2020 season, the games were played in 2021 & must be entered in the correct calendar year!

I think the singular most significant number listed here, is SHS ability to stop SDS run game. The Bearkats have limited opponents to a mere 82 rushing YPG, if they are able to corral the Jackrabbits rush game, 230 YPG; then it is likely that they overcome the Vegas oddsmakers & win the FCS Championship.

This should be fun & as always: Enjoy the games!

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