San Diego County CU Poinsettia Bowl

Bowl History: The original Poinsettia Bowl was first played in 1952 and featured the champions of the Eastern and Western Military Bases against one another. Bolling Air Force Base defeated San Diego Naval Training Center, 35-14, on December 20, 1952! This format was followed through 1955, the bowl was cancelled after the 55 game! The Poinsettia Bowl was resurrected in 2005, with the intent to involve the military academies on an annual basis … when and if Bowl eligible. In 2005, Navy beat Colorado State, 51-30, last year’s game featured TCU and Louisiana Tech, a game won by TCU, 31-24! The 2008 game, between #11 (TCU) and 9th ranked (Boise State) was the highest rated pre-Christmas Bowl game ever on ESPN – TCU 17 Boise State 16! Poinsettia Bowl Pay out, $500,000.00 per team

Teams: BYU, Independent, Overall Record 7-5 vs San Diego State, Mountain West Conference, Overall Record 9-3, Conference Mark 7-1 (Tri Champion with Boise State & Fresno State)

Bowl Location: San Diego, California. The San Diego County Credit Union Bowl is played at Qualcomm Stadium with a capacity of 71,500!  The 2010 game between San Diego State & Navy (SDSU won 35-14) boast’s the Bowl’s highest attendance, 48,049! This year’s game between BYU & San Diego State may challenge that attendance mark!

Day, Date, & Time: Thursday, 12/20/12, @ 7:00 p.m. 

Network: ESPN

Best Wins: BYU: Beat a 10-2 Utah State, 6-3 & Georgia Tech (who played in the ACC Championship Game) 41-17! San Diego State: Beat a 10-2 @ Boise State 21-19 and @ Nevada 39-38 in OT!

Worst Losses: BYU:  @ Utah (The Religious War) 24-21 … bragging rights in the State of Utah and Oregon State loss … not that they lost to OSU, a quality team … but rather the way they lost … giving up 42 points … they are way to good defensively for this to have happened San Diego State: @ Fresno State, 52-40, the lost kept them from winning MWC outright!

Common Opponents:  3 … San Jose State: BYU lost 20-14 while SDSU lost 38-34; Boise State: BYU lost 7-6 while SDSU beat Boise 21-19! Hawaii: BYU beat Hawaii 47-0 while San Diego State beat the Warriors, 52-14!

Las Vegas Hotsheet: BYU Opened @ BYU -2.5 and has remained there or at -3 on the various Vages Hotsheets! General perspective is that BYU has the better defense and played the stronger schedule!

Offensive Team Data: BYU: Total Yards, 409 YPG; Passing Yards, 248 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 162 YPG; Scoring Average 29 PPG, Turnovers, 1.83 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 45.1%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 65% 

Offensive Team Data: San Diego State: Total Yards, 408 YPG; Passing Yards, 179 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 229 YPG; Scoring Average 35 PPG, Turnovers, 1.67 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 49.4%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 90% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 75% 

Defensive Team Data: BYU:  Total Yards, 266 YPG; Passing Yards, 182 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 84 YPG; Scoring Average 15 PPG, Turnovers, 1.42 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 27.7%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 62% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 46%

Defensive Team Data: Total Yards, 376 YPG; Passing Yards, 235 YPG;  Rushing Yards, 141 YPG; Scoring Average 25 PPG, Turnovers, 1.92 TPG; Percent of 3rd Down Conversions, 42.9%; Percentage of all scores in Red Zone, 80% & Percentage of TD’s in Red Zone, 70% 

Sully’s Game Simulator: is a statistical analysis / predictor of how these teams will preform, based solely on their numbers, when they face off on the gridiron! Keep in mind, these stats were established against different teams and conferences and these differences must be taken into account to get a complete picture when attempting to predetermine a winner. If you are interested in how the Simulator works … read this part … if not … skip it! The process used is … we take BYU’s total yards on offense, add it to what SDSU gives up on defense, …  get a total and then divide that number by 2 … to get the mean. We then invert the process by taking San Diego State’s total offense, add it to what BYU gives up on defense, get a total and divide that number by 2  to get the second mean… the greater number (with the exception of Turnovers) is then determined to have the advantage ( please note …. statistical advantage). We repeat this process in each of the eight statistical categories assessed!  That said… here are the results of the Head to Head Analysis:

Total Yards:  Advantage: BYU 393 to 337 

Passing Yards: Advantage: BYU 242 to 181

Rushing Yards: Advantage: SDSU 157 to 152

Scoring: Advantage: BYU 27 to 25 

Turnovers: Advantage: SDSU 1.54 to 1.88

3rd Down Conversions: Advantage: BYU 44% to 39% 

Red Zone All Scores: Advantage: BYU 80% to 76% 

Red Zone TD’s Only: Advantage: BYU 68% t0 61%

Individuals to Watch: SDSU Sophomore QB, Adam Dingwell cane off the bench in the Nevada game for injured Quarterback, Ryan Katz, and was instrumental is mounting a comeback that resulted in the 39-38 OT win! He then led the Aztec’s to victory in all four of his subsequence starts, including their, 21-19, win over Boise State! San Diego State RB, Adam Muema, has has a terrific season, rushing for 1,355 yards and 17 total TDs! BYU will counter on defense with LB Kyle Van Noy, who has 18.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks! BYU has the 2nd ranked rush defense in the nation … is the clear result of individuals operating as a unit… playing their position first and then flowing to the ball!

Sully Says: These teams have not met the past two years, since BYU’s departure from the Mountain West Conference! The last four meetings, dating back to 2007 were all won by BYU, including the most recent in 2010, 24-21 ( BYU is 27-7-1 all time vs San Diego State)! Against common opponents this year, SDSU has the edge, going 2-1 vs Boise State (win), San Jose State (loss), & Hawaii (win), while BYU was 1-2 vs these same teams … beating only Hawaii! I did see BYU battle ND well into the 4th Quarter, hammer G-Tech and there really is no question that BYU has the better defense! Sully’s CFP Page says …. BYU will win and cover!